7-4-13

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John Ryan 25* San Francisco

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Dave Essler

TOR
SF
over CINN

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Ben Burns

VERY EARLY** July 4th MLB ANNIHILATOR!
Minnesota Twins

July 4th MLB Personal Favorite!
Colorado Rockies

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Kyle Hunter

4* St. Louis Cardinals -130

3* Pittsburgh Pirates -128

3* Los Angeles Dodgers +127

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SportsWagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Jul 04, 2013

3-2 Yesterday

Season to Date

127

128

0.00

+41.60

Baltimore @ CHICAGO
Baltimore -108 over CHICAGO

2:10 PM EST. The White Sox have lost six of their last seven games. Their 305 runs scored this season is last in the AL and second last in the entire league, ahead of only the Marlins. The Orioles are a small price here because when you look at Zach Britton’s career numbers and stats, including this year’s four starts, they are not pretty. Britton has a career ERA of 4.72 and a career WHIP of 1.50. He continues to walk too many batters and in fact, he has more BB’s (11) this year than K’s (9) in 22 frames. It’s been rumored that when Wei-Yin Chen returns, he’ll be sent back down to the minors and if that’s not enough motivation to perform well, nothing is. Thing is, Britton has all the talent in the world to thrive. He has some of the nastiest stuff in the league with a sinkerball that is almost unhittable. Britton has a 59% groundball rate. He can be brilliant or dreadful and it all boils down to whether or not he can throw strikes. If he’s on, the South Side will once again be made to look foolish at the plate and that’s a risk worth taking because unlike the White Sox, the Orioles can score runs. The Orioles 117 jacks is tops in the league. Baltimore is in the top three in several offensive categories and should have little trouble scoring a few on Jose Quintana. With men on base, Quintana has an alarming 15% HR/fly-ball rate and that’s not a good number to back when facing the best home-run hitting team in the majors. Baltimore has won five of six while scoring 30 times over those five wins. They should easily score four or more here and that along with the current form of these two clubs make the Orioles very appealing spotting less than a dime.

Our Pick
Baltimore -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

*****




Milwaukee vs WASHINGTON
Milwaukee +152 over WASHINGTON

11:05 AM EST. The Brewers have won two in a row over the Nationals and have held Washington to one earned run over those two games. This pitching matchup is the most favorable of them all for the Crew and the tag on them is bordering on ridiculous. Taylor Jordan was shaky in his MLB debut, needing 84 pitches to make it through 4.1 innings. He is an average prospect (see our MLB June call-ups for complete scouting report on him) who has never pitched above Double–AA ball prior to his promotion. Jordan was greeted with a quick hook in his debut against the Mets and you can expect the same when he finds trouble in this start against a much tougher lineup than the one he faced in New York. Donovan Hand has appeared in 11 games for the Brewers this year with all but two of those being in relief. In his season starting debut on June 22, he went 4.2 shutout innings against Atlanta and allowed just two hits. He followed that up with a full five-inning start against Pittsburgh on June 29 and allowed five hits and two earned runs. In 24 innings overall, Hand has walked just three batters while striking out 14. Hand is a control specialist with an elite groundball rate of 57%. Hand isn’t a hard-thrower by any means but he effectively changes speeds and keeps the ball down with his 85-91 mph sinker. He rarely gets taken yard and he does not get rattled. Hand and the Brewers offer up some tremendous value here against an unproven rookie that has a long, long way to go.

Our Pick
Milwaukee +152 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.04)

*****




Philadelphia @ PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia +115 over PITTSBURGH


1:35 PM EST. Cole Hamels is going to wake up this morning and have a look at the betting line, like every other major league pitcher and see that he’s a +115 dog against a rookie with four MLB starts in his career. Ya think he’s gonna be a little extra jacked up here? We do. Gerrit Cole is 4-0 with a 3.70 ERA but there are several signs that insist his winning streak is about to end. Cole has just 11 K’s in 24 innings and was extremely lucky in his last start against Milwaukee when he walked three, struck out three and allowed eight hits and three runs in six innings. His WHIP for that game was 1.83 but the Brewers could not throw that knockout punch despite having Cole on the ropes in just about every inning. Cole has an xERA of 4.50 and 4.85 over his past two starts and although he pitches for the Pirates, he does not deserve this billing over Hamels. This is a great matchup for Hamels against a Pirates team that doesn't hit left-handed pitching well (.231 BA, .684 OPS). Hamels comes in with an ugly 2-11 record and 4.58 ERA but it’s been a case of pure bad luck since May 1 for him. His under the surface stats say this guy is throwing as good as ever right now. Over his last five starts, Hamels has struck out 33 batters in 32 innings. His xERA over that span is an elite 3.13 but he was victimized, as he has been all season by an abnormally low 67% strand rate. Cole Hamels is a true ace with strong skills right across the board. His two wins make him one of the biggest buy low targets in MLB and we’re not about to miss this opportunity.

Our Pick
Philadelphia +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

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SportsWagers CFL

Today's Free Picks for Jul 04, 2013

Season to Date

3

2

0.00

+2.00

Winnipeg @ MONTREAL
Winnipeg +7½ -110 over MONTREAL


Even though the Alouettes won in Winnipeg last week, it wasn’t pretty and the Als needed a 14-0 final frame to secure the five-point win. We’re certainly not comfortable spotting more than a converted TD with Montreal after one game in which some adjustments will be made by both sides. Anthony Calvillo was sacked four times last week and threw for just one TD and just over 250 yards. Had it not been for special teams that set up the Als in decent field position all game and scored a TD, the Als would be 0-1. Had it not been for five Winnipeg turnovers, again, the Als would be 0-1. Montreal had everything go its way in the opener. They built a 14-0 lead, Winnipeg turned the ball over five times, Montreal had 20 more offensive plays than the Blue Bombers and yet the Als needed a 14-0 fourth quarter to win. That’s not a ringing endorsement. Expect the Blue Bombers to clean things up this week. They were careless in several departments and they figure to be much better this week. In the preseason, Winnipeg played few starters in both games and they paid for that rustiness in the opener. Remember, after giving up an early punt return for a TD last week, the Bombers held the Als in check the rest of the way on kickoff and punt returns. Winnipeg took the last two games from the Alouettes last season and this year they are a better squad. The Bombers figure to be a lot sharper tonight and if they can avoid those careless turnovers, expect them to be in this one the entire game. Montreal is not the powerhouse they’ve been in the past and will likely play about .500 ball this year.

Our Pick
Winnipeg +7½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)



Toronto @ B.C. LIONS
B.C. LIONS -6 over Toronto

Well, depending on where you shop, there are several different numbers out in this game. At the time of this writing (9:15 AM), SIA had the Lions favored by -5, Pinny had them -6½ and bet365 had B.C -7. By game time, expect the line to be about -6 everywhere and that’s the number we’re going to use, although we got on at -5 at SIA. The Argos came away with an opening day 39-34 win over the Tigercats. Watching that game, it looked like Hamilton had their way the entire game and anyone that bet the Argos had to feel extremely fortunate to get that cover. The only reason the Argos won was because Hamilton’s defense took several plays off. On at least three occasions, an Argos receiver didn’t have a defender within 20 yards of him and Ricky Ray was able to hit those wide open receivers. Toronto also averaged over nine yards per carry but the same fate does not await them here. More glaring was the Argos lack of defense that allowed the Ti-Cats to move the ball at will the entire game and if they don’t do something about that, the Argos will be in for a long night. The Lions were torched in their opener and you know that is not sitting well with them. B.C. was never in that game. They came out flat and they could not recover against a highly motivated Stamps’ team playing in Calgary just after those devastating floods. A rebound is in order. So, forget what you saw last week in the Lions. They are one of the top two teams in the CFL. They have an outstanding QB and a great defense. Last season they allowed just 19 points a game and in this league that is unheard of. Travis Lulay is the straight goods, throwing for over 4200 yards a year ago to go along with 27 TD’s. The core of all that talent is back this season and after an embarrassing opening game, the Lions will not be flat again here. A complacent Argos team after a fluke win, gets buried.

Our Pick
B.C. LIONS -6 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 36.67)

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Valley
Atlanta Braves

jeffersonsports big MLB year
MLB
minnesota-123

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Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB PREMIUM PLAY

ST.LOUIS -128 (1.28U)

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Joe Gavazzi MLB Money Line Thu, 07/04/13 - 8:05 PM

double-dime bet - 924 TEX (-127) vs 923 SEA
Analysis: Seattle (Iwakuma) at Texas (Perez) (-130) 8:05 ET 2* Texas (Perez) (-130) Time for the bounceback for the Rangers who have dropped the first two games of this series by combined scores of 13-4. But Texas is an MLB best 101-64/loss L3Y including 21-14/loss this year. The hot streak for Iwakuma is drawing to a close. In his last 3 starts, Iwakuma has not recorded a victory allowing 12 runs (4 in each game) in 20 IP. Perez has pitched better in each of his 3 starts culminating with a 4-0 victory vs. Cincinnati in his last outing where he allowed just 6 hits in 6 2/3 IP. For the year, Perez is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA. Take the resilient Rangers with the hotter starter.

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Texas Rangers

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Fezzik

CFL

BC -4 / 4.5

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Sports Handicapper King

Winnipeg
Rockies

No freeloader