7-1-13

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Rounding the bases: The best bets in the bigs

Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in Major League Baseball.

For the week of June 24-30.

Hot team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Last week: 5-0
Season: 51-30
Upcoming schedule: vs. Phillies, at Cubs

Skinny: The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to be the best bet in the bigs this season and have won nine straight games heading into a three-game set with the Phillies starting Tuesday.

Cold team: Chicago White Sox
Last week: 1-5
Season: 32-47
Upcoming schedule: vs. Orioles, at Rays

Skinny: The White Sox were blanked twice last week and have dropped five consecutive games heading into a series with the Balitmore Orioles.

Over team: Chicago Cubs
Last week: 6-0 over/under
Season: 39-38-3 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at A’s, vs. Pirates

Skinny: The Cubbies have played over the total in seven consecutive games and will open a three-game set with the Oakland A’s, who are one of the best over bets in the bigs (46-36-1 O/U), on Tuesday.

Under team: Tampa Bay Rays
Last week: 1-5 over/under
Season: 42-34-6 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at Astros, vs. White Sox

Skinny: The Rays took two of three from both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Detroit Tigers last week. Tampa has gone low in two straight and six and of its last seven games.

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MLB betting: July good/bad month pitchers
By MARC LAWRENCE

Listed below are MLB hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July.

On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Mark Buehrle (10-5)

After a repugnant start to the season with his new team, Buehrle has lowered his ERA by over two runs and been a contributor to the Blue Jays turning around their season. With the warmer weather on the way, the left-hander is expected to use all four of his pitches and move them around the edges of the strike zone and win games as per usual.

Kevin Correia (10-4)

Correia is a bit of a dinosaur these days, with a fastball topping out in the high-80’s. What he does do for the teams he’s played for is keep them in games and more often than not places them in a position to win, something the right-hander has been very good at historically in this month.

Roy Halladay (10-3) DL

“Doc” has begun long tossing as part of his rehab for damaged wing and is expected back sometime in August for the Phillies.

Tim Hudson (12-5)

The Braves starter will turn 38 years old this month and is having a season more typical of when he first joined Atlanta in 2005, giving up quite a few home runs and not hitting his spots. Chances are Hudson will find a good groove, but needs more run support if he’s going to continue racking up wins in July.

Ian Kennedy (10-5)

Kennedy is back after serving his 10-game suspension for his part in the Diamondbacks/Dodgers brawl. To date, the Snakes righty has not been very good and though many of his peripherals are similar to the past, he’s given up 25 percent more home runs than his career average. Arizona needs Kennedy if it is to remain atop the NL West.

Clayton Kershaw (11-5)

It has certainly been an unusual year for Kershaw with a 6-5 record, in spite of being on pace for a career-lows in earned run average and opponents batting average. His problems have been giving up the big hit at the wrong time and the lack of support from the Dodger bats. Even a few runs would take the pressure off and let this 25-year-old stud get in his regular groove.

Rick Porcello (8-4)

Once thought to be ace material, Porcello is a back of the rotation hurler for Detroit. He’s a ground ball pitcher and the Tigers’ infielders cover the least amount of ground as any team in baseball according to fielding metrics, which beefs up his hits allowed. When Porcello is right, he wins a lot of 5-3 games, helping his club in the win column.

CC Sabathia (10-4)

It has not been business as usual for the big left-hander and if Sabathia is going to have a typical July, he has to keep the ball in the park. In 2012, he surrendered a career-worst 22 long balls and has conceded 17 already this year. The Yankees need the CC they are accustomed to seeing in the highly competitive AL East.

Jered Weaver (13-5)

It’s hard to fathom, even with an injury, Weaver enters this month with just one victory in 2013. However, do not be surprised if this number rises rapidly, as the Angels ace closed last month strong and his velocity has been rising to normal levels. With more speed on his four-seam fastball, the array of spinning sliders, slow curves and changeups keep opposing hitters off balance.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Bruce Chen (4-11)

After leading Kansas City in wins each of the last three years, Chen has been a fixture in the Royals bullpen this season.

Doug Fister (5-12)

Being supported by Detroit’s lineup card is a far better option than being backed by Seattle, Fister’s former team. This month has been extremely tough for the California native, as he’s seven games below .500 this month.

Jeremy Guthrie (5-12)

After a sensational start, Guthrie has witnessed his ERA jump from 2.28 on May 9, to 4.11 as July begins. The adjusted figure is more similar to his big league track record and the superior downward movement he had early on his fastball has dissipated, leaving more pitches up in the zone.

Bud Norris (4-11)

Pitching for the Astros since 2009 has not helped Norris when it comes to wins and losses. Houston is already listening to trade deadline offers for the 28-year-old who can be overwhelming at times. Yet for any pennant contender, Norris has an ERA of 5.49 the past three years on the road, which plays a factor in his miserable numbers in July.

Ricky Romero (4-12)

After a couple of ugly starts in early May, Romero was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo, trying to reboot his career.

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L.A. baseball teams finally turning profits for bettors

Los Angeles baseball clubs, who were the worst bets in baseball for most of the season, are starting to turn profits.

The Dodgers have won eight of nine and the Angels are winners of six straight.

The Dodgers had put together six consecutive wins before getting routed 16-1 by the Phillies on Friday. Dodgers pitchers allowed only 2.33 runs per game during the six-game run and helped the under cash in four of the contests (2-4 over/under). Any $100 bettor would be up $687.36 if they had bet on each of the Dodgers' last nine games.

The Angels have been underachieving all season long, but could they be starting to turn the corner? The Halos have strung together six consecutive wins to move within four games of .500.

Any $100 bettor would be up $597.58 if they had bet on each game of the Angels' impressive run.

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Jays don't give bettors reason to celebrate on Canada Day

The Rogers Centre will be a sea of red and white Monday with the sold-out home crowd celebrating Canada Day. The Toronto Blue Jays, who will sport their special red July 1 uniforms, take on the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of a four-game set.

The Blue Jays haven’t been at their best on Canada’s birthday in recent years. In fact, they’ve lost three straight July 1 matchups heading into Monday’s contest.

Since 1999, Toronto is 5-9 on Canada Day, including a 3-3 record at home. If you wagered $100 on each of those 14 games, you’d be down -$310.64 and trading in your ice-cold Moosehead Cracked Canoe for a warm case of Laker Lager your uncle found in his old boat.

The Jays have been home for the holiday the past two seasons, losing 10-6 to the Los Angeles Angels last year and 7-6 to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2011. Both of those games played over the total.

Toronto is an even 7-7 over/under on July 1 (3-3 over/under at home) and has actually outscored opponents 72-67 over those 14 games, with an average of 9.93 combined runs in those contests against an average total of 9.28.

Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (7-8, 4.72 ERA) gets the call for Canada Day, coming off a two-hit shutout of the Tampa Bay Rays his last time out. The Blue Jays are 9-8 over/under in his 17 starts this season. He matches pitches with Tigers rookie Jose Alvarez (1-1, 3.78 ERA, 1-2 O/U).

Toronto is just 2-6 as a moneyline favorite on Canada Day since 1999, with a 3-3 mark as an underdog.

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'Over' bettors cash big in CFL Week 1

The ‘over’ went a perfect 4-0 in Week 1 CFL openers,

The eight teams combined to score 277 points in Week 1 (69.25 points per game) with the Calgary Stampeders leading the way with 44 points in their opener against the BC Lions. The two clubs played 24 points over the 52-point total.

In fact, the four openers played over their respective totals by a combined average of 17 points.

Here are some of the biggest adjustments on the CFL futures board after Week 1:

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 over/under)

Opened: +800
After Week 1: +400

The Roughriders destroyed the Edmonton Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium, 39-18, on Saturday. The Green Riders received a 131 yard-effort from RB Kory Sheets and put four offensive TDs on the board. Saskatchewan’s focus now turns to its Week 2 home opener against the Calgary Stampeders.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 over/under)

Opened: +1700
After Week 1: +2200

Oddsmakers opened the Blue Bombers as the biggest underdogs in the league and their odds have tumbled further after falling 38-33 to the Montreal Alouettes in the season opener.

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Monday Houston/Tampa Bay Under 9

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 2-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts. Gallardo is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
-- Fernandez is 2-1, 1.95 in his last five starts. Marquis is 3-0, 3.63 in his last four road starts.

-- Dickey is 2-0, 3.05 in his last couple starts.
-- Moore is 2-0, 2.92 in his last couple starts. Keuchel is 3-2, 2.87 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Arroyo is 0-1, 4.74 in his last four starts. Kickham lost both his '13 starts, allowing 11 runs in 7.2 IP.
-- Miley is 0-2, 5.70 in his last four starts. Marcum is 1-2, 5.40 in his last three.

-- Alvarez is 1-1, 3.78 in three starts this season.
-- Diamond is 1-3, 8.55 in his last four starts. Pettitte is 0-3, 5.95 in his last three outings.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Gallardo 3-17; Zimmerman 2-16
-- Kickham 0-2; Arroyo 1-16
-- Miley 4-16; Marcum 2-10
-- Marquis 5-16; Fernandez 3-15

-- Alvarez 0-3; Dickey 5-17
-- Moore 6-16; Keuchel 1-9
-- Pettitte 3-13; Diamond 5-14 (1 of last 6)

Totals
-- Five of last severn Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Last six San Diego games went over the total.

-- Eight of last eleven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-5-1 in last eighteen Houston home games.
-- Five of last seven Bronx games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Washington is 7-4 in its last eleven games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Marlins won seven of their last nine games.

-- Tampa Bay won five of its last seven games.
-- Minnesota won five of its last seven home games.

Cold teams
-- Brewers lost six of their last seven games.
-- Giants lost eight of their last ten games. Reds lost seven of their last nine.
-- Arizona lost six of its last seven games.
-- Padres lost six of their last eight games.

-- Toronto lost five of its last seven games. Detroit lost five of last six.
-- Astros lost five of their last six games.
-- Bronx lost 13 of its last 18 games.

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TMC Sports Advisors

Minnesota

Washington

Cincinnati

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Baseball Crusher
Arizona Diamondbacks -105 over NY Mets
(System Record: 46-5, lost last 5 games)
Overall Record: 46-46-1

Soccer Crusher
HJK Helsinki + FC Lahti OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Finland
(System Record: 419-15, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 419-362-55

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Today's MLB Picks

San Diego at Miami

The Marlins look to build on their 6-1 record in Jose Fernandez' last 7 starts against teams with a losing record. Miami is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JULY 1 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.084; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.512 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+170); Over

Game 953-954: San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Kickham) 13.752; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.127 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-175); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-175); Under

Game 955-956: Arizona at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.897; NY Mets (Marcum) 13.497 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over

Game 957-958: San Diego at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 14.171; Miami (Fernandez) 15.997 Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 7 Vegas Line: Miami (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-125); Under

Game 959-960: Detroit at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Alvarez) 16.578; Toronto (Dickey) 15.618 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Under

Game 961-962: Tampa Bay at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.532; Houston (Keuchel) 14.803 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+155); Over

Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.021; Minnesota (Diamond) 15.138 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1054-789 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner MON Tampa w/Moore

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Miami -135

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Cappers Access

Mets -110
Blue Jays -140

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Jeffrey James

PLAY OF THE DAY

Washington over Miwalukee

This one screams for Washington. The Nationals are going with Zimmermann who is 11-3 with an ERA of 2.28 while Gallardo is 6-7 with a 4.20 ERA. Milwaukee is terrible on the road this season and they are in mired in a very bad stretch right now. Zimmermann will be very ready to feast on the Brewers since in his last 2 starts he has given up only 2 runs in 15 innings of work. This one looks to be easily for Washington.