6-16-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Spurs +1.5

NBA Finals 4-1


Rockies -115

Cardinals -1.5 +100

Diamondbacks -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +114 over OAKLAND (5 innings)

1st 5 innings. At the age of 40 and being 50 pounds overweight, Bartolo Colon continues to put up solid numbers despite average skills. His best asset is his control and more good fortune than just about any pitcher in the game. Colon’s 92% strand rate since May 1 is the highest in the majors among starters with three or more starts over that span. Colon seems to be the poster child for guile. He relies primarily on his fastball, which doesn’t get much above 90 mph these days and one he throws 85% of the time. Colon’s two other pitches, a change and slider, he throws just 6% and 9% of the time respectively. Colon is defying the odds. Pinpoint control is not enough to thrive at this level in the way that Colon has with one pitch and it’s not a knuckleball. It just doesn’t make sense. He doesn’t even strike out that many batters anymore, making his 2.92 ERA on the year a sure thing for erosion. Colon is an elite sell-high target.

When you’re a starting pitcher in Seattle, you’re going to find yourself in the shadow of King Felix Hernandez but with a 7-1 record, Hisashi Iwakuma is casting some shadows of his own. Iwakuma’s dominance can be seen in his 12 dominant starts over 14 attempts. Iwakuma has walked 14 batters and whiffed 87 in 95 innings. He has an elite 53% groundball rate and an even more impressive 14% line-drive rate. Rarely does a hitter make solid contact against this guy and yet here he is with his 1.79 ERA and 0.82 WHIP a dog against Bartolo Colon. Because this choice is based solely on the starters, we’re playing it in five innings.

CLEVELAND +110 over Washington

The Nationals are favored here because Stephen Strasburg returns from the 15 day DL to make this start. Strasburg had gone 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA over a three-start stretch before exiting his last one after two innings due to a strained muscle in his back May 31. The problem with spotting a tag like this one with Strasburg is that the Nationals offense is tooth and nails to score runs and Strasburg will be on a strict pitch count here. You can be 100% certain that Strasburg will throw about 80 pitches and leave around the fifth or sixth inning. That’s if everything goes swimmingly. The Nationals still have the league’s worst road batting average and they’ll face a good one today in Corey Kluber.

Kluber has posted some of the best skills vs. lefties of any starting pitcher with at least 25 IP. He's more than just a lefty killer though. His skills vs. RH bats and have nearly as good. Kluber still isn't getting much attention, which allows us to take advantage of a bad price in our favor. Kluber’s base skills have been elite since May 1 but A 35% hit rate, a 64% strand rate and 20% hr/f all conspired to torpedo his surface stats. Kluber’s 92.8 mph average fastball velocity and 10.9% swinging strike rate both suggest that he has better stuff than he gets credit for and he has a great chance to last deep into this one. The Indians may not even need to score a run off Strasburg for this ticket to cash because the Nats bullpen will be called upon early. Definite overlay.

ATLANTA -1½ +143 over San Francisco

Tim Lincecum came into this season with an outstanding pedigree, not to mention two World Series rings. Lincecum has been dealing it since 2007 with 83 wins over that span and in the 2010 playoffs he went 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. If you play fantasy baseball and own this guy, sell now because Lincecum is a pitcher in serious trouble. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2013 among NL starters and it's not even close. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Check out the yearly SLG percentages that batters have posted against his fastball over the past three seasons, starting in 2011: .400, .420 and .507. Velocity loss combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches makes it extremely unlikely that Lincecum will get back to his former levels. When we look at Lincecum’s results, we see the Giants have dropped four of his last five starts by scores of 8-2, 9-6, 5-0 and 10-2. When he loses, he loses big and it’s for that reason we’ll spot the 1½-runs.

Julio Teheran comes in with a 3.62 ERA and 1.19 WHIP after 12 starts. However, Teheran’s xERA over his last five starts is 3.22. Teheran’s surface stats aren’t bad at all but they are inflated by a low strand rate of 72%. Over his last five starts, covering 36 frames, Teheran has 32 K’s with just seven walks issued. Perhaps the most impressive stat of all and one you will not hear much about anywhere else is that of the 319 batters that Teheran has faced this season, only 44 of those hit a line-drive for one of the lowest line-drive ratios in the majors. With some better fortune, Julio Teheran would have some of the best surface stats in baseball. This is a blossoming ace and that ninth inning rally by the Braves yesterday that snapped a four game losing streak should find Atlanta with a little more jump in its game for this ESPN Sunday nighter.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

4* (MLB) Colorado Rockies ML -113

3* (MLB) San Francisco Giants ML +138
3* (NBA) San Antonio Spurs +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

200* Reds run line +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond at refpicks

10* Colorado Rockies ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney

60 Dime N.L. West
Game of the Year

San Diego Padres

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Danny B:
Sunday MLB Cubs/Mets over 7.5 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Saturday with the Muts -$115/Chubs.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" likes the Orioles -$110/Red Sox.

"Mr Chalk" is 4-1 +$285 for the week 41-25 +$590 for the 2013 MLB Season.


Ben lee had Np on Saturday.

For Sunday Ben lee likes the Spurs +1.5/Heat.

Ben lee is 2-2 +$35 for the 2013 NBA Finals and 18-15 +$195 for the 2013 NBA Conference Playoffs.


Ben lee won on Saturday with the Bruins +$130/Blackhawks and has Np for Sunday.

Ben lee is 2-0 +$230 for the 2013 NHL Stanley Cup Finals and 18-5 +$1140 for the 2013 NHL Playoffs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor NASCAR Picks 6/16

SBP had to settle for 1-2 last weekend at Pocono. He looks to turn things around today in Michigan.

Here are the matchups for today's race at Michigan:

Mark Martin -155 over Ryan Newman

Tony Stewart -120 over Jeff Gordon

Jimmie Johnson -125 over Matt Kenseth

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -140 (moneyline)

This is the end of a 10-game road trip for the Yankees, and they've looked out of gas the last week, riding a five-game skid. The offense has been useless scoring two runs in each of the last four games...good luck against Jered Weaver! This depleted New York offense is short on stars and production, 19th in runs scored, 22nd in on base percentage. Making matters worst is that first baseman Mark Teixeira hurt his wrist yesterday, and is flying back to New York. Lefty C.C. Sabathia is not throwing like an ace with a 4.43 ERA his last three starts. Even for the season his ERA is over four. The Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia's last five starts as a road underdog, and 3-7 in the team's last 10 road games against a team with a losing record. Sabathia has compiled a 6-8 record with a 4.22 ERA in 16 career starts against Los Angeles. They face one of the best in Jered Weaver who is 6-2 in his career against far more powerful Bronx Bomber offenses than this one. The Yankees are 12-27 in the last 39 meetings in Los Angeles, so grab the home field against the road weary visitors. Play the Los Angeles Angels.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass Report for Sunday:
50 White Sox
50 Phillies
50 Washington
200 UNDER San Antonio in the NBA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

spurs
Dbacks

Freeloader on Nats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY

WNBA

3-Unit play Take # 606 Tulsa Shock +6.5 vs. Phoenix (4:35pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler MLB Money Line Sun, 06/16/13 - 4:10 PM

double-dime bet - 912 SDP (+110) vs 911 ARI
Analysis: I always like my home dogs, and looked at this one pretty early. I was not inclined to back Richards, BUT, with that total coming down they certainly don't expect him to get lit. Even the opening number, with the D-Backs and an over rated Kennedy, seemed to be begging of Arizona money. I am not giving it to them. The hot team versus the cold team with a key relief pitcher that was able to win (and put up a five run inning) without Quentin. He SHOULD play today, but if now, OFW.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RickJ's Handicapping Picks Sunday Mlb Play

1/2 Unit
919 - D Fister
920 - MIN - P Walters +134