3-23-13

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RightSideValuePlays

Michigan -3

St. Louis -3.5

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Gavazzi writeups Saturday March 23rd

CBK

NCAA Games

Butler vs Marquette (-2) 7:45PM Lexington, KY

3% Butler (+2)

This line has been beaten down a bit because of Marquette’s 0-4 ATS slide and the ever increasing Butler rep. So much so that NCAA round of 32 handicapping theory clearly and strongly sides with Marquette at this value price. But I will only allow that to reduce my rating on a Butler side who under HC Stevens continues to outperform expectations in the underdog role. And facing a Big East opponent, Stevens will have no problem selling his team on the underdog concept. For the season, the Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS as P or plus. And their record in this role vs non con foes is 5-1 ATS as pick or dog this season, increasing long term mark to 39-13 ATS in that role. Already this season, they have upset this Marquette team, 72-71 (as +3), North Carolina, Indiana and Gonzaga. In Thursday’s 68-56 Butler victory over Bucknell, the Bulldogs held the Bison to 37% from field, 31% from arc, had a +6 rebound margin, committed only five TOs, and had 4 players score 11+ points. That was far more impressive than Marquette’s performance which required a Houdini act to get the 59-58 win after trailing Davidson 54-48 with one minute on the clock. It was impressive that the Eagles had a +15 rebound margin and only committed 5 TOs, a further reason to reduce this rating.



Colorado St vs Louisville (-10 ½) 5:15PM Lexington, KY

4% Colorado St (+10 ½)

Playing in their home state, Louisville continued their late season surge, extending their mark to 11-0 SU, 8-0 ATS, after decapitating NCA&T, 79-48, as 26 point chalk. That cover boosted Pitino’s record in CCT and NCAA action L2Y to 12-0-1 ATS. Their success was keyed by a defense that allowed just 41% from the field, had a +9 rebound margin, and forced 27 TOs, a large reason why they shot 57%, as many were layups. To play competitively against Card’s pressure defense, you will need a veteran team who can take care of the ball, force Louisville into half-court game, and control the glass. Hello CO St. Those of us who questioned the health of CO St backcourt leader, Green, had their question answered when he scored 18 first half points en route to a game high 26 in leading 4 Ram players in double figures to an 84-72 mini upset of Missouri. In a game that was figured to be closely contested on glass by a pair of teams with top 5 rebound margins, the Rams won the battle of the boards with a +18 mark. With five senior starters, a veteran big game coach, Eustachy, the Rams have the experience, the handlers, the half-court offense and clearly an advantage on the boards, that will make Louisville sweat for this victory.



Memphis vs Michigan St (-5 ½) 2:45PM Auburn Hills, MI

4% Michigan St (-5 ½)

Teams playing with a site advantage went 4-0 ATS Thursday, with Louisville, Michigan, Cal, and these Spartans, all getting the money for their backers. Since beginning season 6-3 SU, this Memphis team has been on quite a run of 24-1 SU. Seems crazy to fade them as a 5 ½ point road dog. But remember, they have been favored in all but two of those games. Earlier in the season, when facing the only three teams in this field, they lost by 13 to VCU, 9 to Minnesota, and 9 to Louisville. You can see there is precedence in making this selection. In Thursday’s 54-52 escape vs St Mary’s, they held the Gaels to 33% from field and 20% from arc. Doubt that happens against the bigger, tougher Spartans who have been steeled against the toughest schedule in the country, while Memphis has been making their mark against CUSA teams. Don’t be misled by the Spartans ½ point cover against Valpo at this very friendly home site. The Spartans had a +24 point rebound margin, led by 27 in the second half, but allowed Valpo to score the last 10 points to let the game appear more competitive than it really was. Nix, who went for 23/15 on Thursday, and Payne, are way more than Memphis has seen on the interior all season long. Lone concern is that Sparty committed 17 TOs on Thursday, a problem that could have Izzo pulling out his remaining hair, against the tough Tiger defense.



VCU vs Michigan (-3) 12:15PM Auburn Hills, MI

3% VCU (-3)

Clear site advantage is just one of the reasons why I have reduced this rating on underdog selection VCU. For, in addition to the throaty Auburn Hills crowd favoring the Wolves, this is a team that is among the nation’s leaders in protecting the basketball, with just 9 TOs per game. In their Thursday win against S Dak St, they allowed just 41% from field, 21% from arc, committed their per game average of only 9 TOs, and shot 51% from the field. Following a late season slide that saw them enter the NCAA on a 6-6 SU, 2-10 ATS downer, the Round 1 victory vs the Jackrabbits could have been a buy sign for this young but talented team. Yet anyone who witnessed our Thursday night top of the ticket winner with VCU knows I will continue to ride this team until they fail, especially at this price point. In their 88-42 romp over Akron, the Rams allowed just 35% from field, 1-13 from arc (8%), forced 22 TOs, and had a 15/7 assist / TO ratio. It was the ultimate confidence building havoc defense performance. Even against a Big 10 team, not about to fade this team as post season underdog as the Rams under HC Smart are now 8-1 ATS in NCAA action, 2+Y.



Wichita St vs Gonzaga (- 6 ½) 8:40PM Salt Lake City, UT

4% Wichita St (+6 ½)

The Zags got all they could handle from an underrated Southern team in their 64-58 escape as 23 point favorite. It was a game that was even closer than the final score. In addition, it gave further respect to the SWAC, a lowly ranked league whose NCAA participants have outperformed expectations in recent years. In defeating the Jaguars, Gonzaga held them to 39% from the field. But their smallish perimeter players in Pangos, Bell and Hart, allowed the Jags to connect for 10/23 from behind the arc. The interior power of Gonzaga controlled the glass with a +16 rebound margin and the Zags committed only 10 TOs. Today, however, they must switch gears from the up-tempo ways of Thursday’s opponent to the bump and grind MO of Wichita St. Under highly respected HC Marshall, the Shockers easily deposed of Pitt, the only one of four Big East teams to lose on Thursday. In so doing, they allowed the Panthers just 33% from the field and 20% from the arc. Hall and Early will not back down from the rugged front line of the Zags on the glass. On the other end of the court, Early has a meaningful edge against Harris, the Zags weakest defender. On the perimeter, PG Armstead (Oregon transfer) will be the best guard on the floor. I waste no time in making this a top of the ticket play with a Wichita St team whose defense, tempo conscious ways and outstanding coaching make them the epitome of a successful post season underdog.



Harvard vs Arizona (-10) 6:10PM Salt Lake City, UT

3% Harvard (+10)

Rarely does the NCAA committee make seeding mistakes. But in this case, apologies are in order after three of the PAC 12 top teams in the field, Arizona seeded 6th, and Oregon and Cal each seeded 12th, proceeded to go 3-0 SUATS on Thursday, covering by 32 points. Arizona was certainly impressive with their defense against one of the top 5 offensive teams in the nation. The Wildcats defeated Belmont, 81-64, when they held the Bruins to 39% from field, 30% from the arc. The key to victory came with an astounding +27 rebound margin. Five Wildcats scored 9 or more points, and the 16 TOs they committed does not appear to be an issue against a defensively passive Harvard team. And clearly there is historical precedence approaching 70% proficiency ATS for better seeded round 2 favorites in this price range, against teams who pulled the 1st round upset. That would be Harvard, as I conveyed to you in my Thursday analysis against a New Mexico team that I really liked. For Harvard HC Amaker has been very special in this role, especially this season. They have now gone 7-1 ATS, facing a variety of defensive looks against non con foes including UMass, St Joes, BC, UConn, Cal, St Mary’s, Memphis, and New Mexico. They were not awed by the Lobos on Thursday, nor will they be by the Wildcats tonight. The Crimson was thought to be in a rebuilding year when graduation and withdrawal losses depleted Amaker’s crew. But they reloaded and barely skipped a beat in repeating as Ancient Eight champs. Amaker discovered a lead guard in Siyani Chambers to control offense and dish to big guards Revard and Webster. Saunders on the interior has been complemented by the emerging young players, Smith and Moundo-Missi. Very true that AZ has the better athletes, but that has not stopped Amaker from controlling the tempo against others of this ilk this season. Look for them to do it again tonight and come under this double digit number.



Oregon vs St. Louis (-4) 7:00PM San Jose, CA

4% St. Louis (-4)

What a performance by the Ducks. Wire to wire against a good OK St team, against whom they controlled the tempo at their whim. In so doing, they won the game 68-55, allowing just 48% from the field, 29% from the arc. The +14 rebound margin was a big contributor. Credit Rice transfer Kazemi who pulled down 19 boards. Of equal note was the return to full health of PG Artis. Though playing his usual limit of 17 minutes since his injury, he scored 13 points, one of five Ducks who got on the board with 8 to 17 point performances. A major reason for concern, however, was the 18 TOs committed by the Ducks, who average 15 TOs per game on offense, tied with Memphis for the most in today’s field. The St Louis defensive pressure can take advantage of that inadequacy, and you know we are not about to get off our Billikens meal ticket. Our top play St Louis victory over New Mex St came by 64-44. The Bills allowed the Aggies just 28% from the field, 13% from the arc, while featuring a 17/10 assist / TO ratio. The methodical, efficient win boosted recent run to 16-1 SUATS since January 20th. No way we jump off now. This team has the profile and look of the kind of tempo conscious, efficient, defensive team who has the ability to go a long way in this tourney.





California vs Syracuse (-7 ½) 9:40PM San Jose, CA

5% Syracuse (- 7 ½)

When the fundamentals and technicals merge, it sets up as our top of the ticket play. The Cal Bears were part of the 3-0 SUATS Thursday blitz by PAC 12 teams. Playing in nearby San Jose, continues to be an advantage for them. In that 64-61 revenge seeking mini-upset of poor travelling UNLV, they held the Rebels to 32% from field, 30% from the arc. Four Golden Bears scored in double digits, led by a combined 32 from the perimeter power of Crabbe and Cobbs. Yet that performance paled in comparison to the last game of the night, which saw Syracuse run roughshod by a count of 81-34, over an outmanned Montana team. In so doing, they held the Griz to 20% from the field, 13% from the arc, had a +11 rebound margin and a 21/8 assist / TO ratio. The Orange stumbled into the Big East CCT on a 1-4 SU slide. But they turned that all around in a four games in four days performance at MSG. In fact, into the second half, they led Louisville by 16. But the combo of the Cards tenacity and the Orange being worn down by a pair of physical contests the previous two days, saw Syracuse run out of gas. Clearly their tanks have been refueled. And their 47 point romp, combined with the Cal upset, offers a strong 2nd round NCAA situation. Combined with Boeheim’s 2-3 zone to shut down the perimeter power of Crabbe and Cobbs, it looks like the Orange could well author consecutive blowouts.

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Xpertpicks

Harvard +10 over Arizona
Butler +2.5 over Marquette
Colorado State +10.5 over Louisville
VCU +3.5 over Michigan

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ATS LOCK CLUB

5 Mich St
4 Butler
4 Wich St.

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Guaranteed Picks Today

Warriors
Knicks
Pacers
Nets
VCU
Stanford
Mich St
Harvard
Stl
Butler
Wich St
Cuse

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JdWarriors5
vcu +3.5

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Sports Betting Champ
Boston [C] bet

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Larry Ness

10 Legend - Weber St

10* Michigan St

10* St Louis

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spreitzer


Triple-dime - St. Louis -4.0 -110

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Todays Best Bets

(4 UNITS) Michigan -3.5

(4 UNITS) Michigan St -5.5

(3 UNITS) St Louis -3.5

(5 UNITS) Marquette -1.5

(5 UNITS) Wichita State +6.5

(4 UNITS) Cal +7

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billy coleman


4 - Bradley
4- Wichita St
4- Evansville
3 - Butler
3- Arizona
3- Michigan St

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GAMEDAYINSIDERS / TJ Pemberton

Today Action: Saturday 3-Plays

3* Michigan -3.5
I've been talking about Michigan's elite back court group all season. Today they face #5 VCU. This game being played in Michigan will give the Wolverines another home court feeling and give them that edge they need to keep moving on.
Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Wolverines are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 non-conference games.

3* Marquette Moneyline -125
I like the Big East team moving on in this spot. Vander Blue needs to step up today and get his whole team involved. Butler has a lot of post season experience but their journey ends today.

Butler is..
Bulldogs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Bulldogs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.

3* Sharks/Wild Over 5 Goals
Wild Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Wild last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Wild last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Sharks Trends:
Over is 6-0-3 in Sharks last 9 overall.
Over is 5-0-1 in Sharks last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1-2 in Sharks last 10 games following a win.

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The Goldsheet

★★★Harvard 69 - Arizona 67—Only once in the last 15 years (Cornell in
2010) have we had an Ivy League team in the round of 32 since 1998, when Bill
Carmody’s Princeton advanced past UNLV in the opening round and made a
good fist of it against Michigan State in the second game of sub-regional action.
And the Big Red in 2010 won two games before falling to Kentucky in the Sweet
16. But we’ve never had a chance to write about Harvard beyond its first game
of the Dance; Thursday’s shocking win over New Mexico was the Crimson’s first
ever in NCAA tourney play! But as that success vs. the formidable Lobos
suggests, the Crimson are probably not going to be out of their depth against
Pac-12 rep Arizona.
As mentioned when previewing its matchup vs. New Mexico, we don’t want
to summarily dismiss Harvard simply because of its Ivy connection. Affirmation
that HC Tommy Amaker has been recruiting a collection of non-Ivy-type
performers has been confirmed by a variety of results this season when the
Crimson were good enough to hold their own vs. a lot of “name brands” (covers
vs. UMass, UConn, Saint Mary’s & Memphis) and outright wins vs. Boston
College, Cal, and now New Mexico...and none of those games were played at
home. Amaker has skillfully navigated Harvard beyond graduations and
controversial offseason defections, keying around 6-5 wings soph Wesley
Saunders (16.5 ppg; 18 vs. New Mexico), Christian Webster and holdover
Laurent Rivard (17 vs. Lobos, including 5 of 9 triples), who create matchup
problems vs. smaller backcourt counterparts. Indeed, it’s worth noting that
Arizona was similarly bothered by UCLA’s bigger perimeter weapons when
losing all three meetings vs. the Bruins this season. Harvard’s ability to drain
triples (40.3%; ranking 6th nationally) also provides more distribution options for
frosh PG Syani Chambers (13 ppg), who has been a workhorse while logging
almost 38 minutes pg.
While popular opinion has it that Arizona’s atheleticism (especially on the
frontline) gives it an edge, we’re not so sure, because Amaker’s bigs (especially
6-8 soph Kenyatta Smith) have some mobility. Remember, too, Harvard's very
compeittive efforts vs. Uconn & Memmhis sides filled with Arizona-likeqquicks.,
And, while the Cats have pulled out a lot of close games this season, Xavier
transfer G Mark Lyons is still excitable and prone to making mistakes. There’s
enough evidence to suggest Harvard can not only stay within this price, but
maybe replicate that stunner vs. the Lobos.

★★★Butler 70 - Marquette 62—While earlier meetings are not always a
foolproof indicator of future results, a quick revisit of the eventful first battle
between Butler and Marquette way back in November at the opening round of
Maui Classic is probably worthy of review. That afternoon in Lahaina, the 4-
point favorite Golden Eagles could not shake the Bulldogs, who clawed their
way back from an early 12-2 deficit to assume a 31-30 halftime lead in what
would turn out to be a taut, back-and-forth battle. The game was no artistic
masterpeice, with the teams combining to miss 27 of their 35 three-point
attempts. But it was one of the successful triples, converted by the Butler’s
Rotnei Clarke in the final second that gave Butler a thrill-packed 72-71 win,
which preceded a victory over North Carolina the following night.
Four months later, a similar hammer-and-tongs battle seems likely,
although a couple of the developments from that first meeting might prove
impactful in the rematch. Whereas the Bulldogs have mostly improved upon
their three-point shooting since the Maui clash, the Golden Eagles (4 for 14 from
tripleville in the first meeting) haven’t; Marquette connected on only 29.9%
beyond the arc this season, and before a flurry of 3s in the last minute that gave
the Golden Eagles a chance against Davidson on Thursday, Buzz Williams’
bricklayers had missed on 11 of 12 from beyond the arc vs. the Wildcats. That
shortcoming, which almost proved costly in the Davidson game, is likely to undo
Marquette at some time in the postseason. And now the Warriors are facing a
suddenly-confident Butler C Andrew Smith, off a double-double (14 points and
a career-high 16 rebounds) while outplaying Bucknell’s well-regarded Mike
Muscala on Thursday. While Clarke‘s recent 3-point shooting (only 31% over
the past seven games) continues in an uneven manner, his presence still acts
to stretch opposing defenses. And if the Golden Eagles were harassed into
34% FG shooting vs. Davidson, Butler’s stingy “D” (with more strength and
quickness than Davidson’s) could similarly unnerve them.
Marquette, fortunate to dodge a bullet on Thursday, has already likely
exhausted its allotment of miracles in the postseason.

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SB Professor Early NHL Picks 3/23

51. San Jose Sharks +124

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PREDICTION MACHINE

Against the Spread Picks

Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS

517 5:15 PM COLORADO ST. LOUISVILLE 11 -8.7 53.2%

Straight-Up Picks

Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opponent Points For Points Against Win%

518 5:15 PM Louisville Colorado St. 71.6 62.8 74.4%

Over/Under Picks

Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick%

518 5:15 PM COLORADO ST. vs LOUISVILLE 134.5 134.4 Under 50.1%