3-13-13

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goldsheet
COLORADO (-4) by 15 over Oregon State (Wednesday, March 13)
FRESNO STATE (+8) by 2 over Colorado State (Wed., March 13)
TULANE (-2) by 11 over Marshall (Wednesday, March 13)
TEXAS (-10) by 16 over Tcu (Wednesday, March 13)

MIAMI (-10) by 21 over Philadelphia (Wednesday, March 13)
ATLANTA (pk)by 11 over L.A. Lakers (Wednesday, March 13)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping This Week's Major Conference Tournaments

March Madness is already in full swing with many mid-major conferences already starting their postseason. Now it’s time for the big boys to get in on the fun.

Major conference tournaments begin this week and we take a look at the favorites and some live long shots to win the conference crowns.

ACC – March 14-17

Favorite: Duke -120 – The Blue Devils enter the postseason off three straight wins and could earn the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA with an ACC tournament title.

Upset watch: Virginia +700 – The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the country and have wins over the top teams in the conference. No. 4 seed Virginia is actually getting higher odds than No. 5 NC State (+400).

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 7-4 SU/5-6 ATS, Over/Under – 7-4

Big East – March 12-16

Favorite: Louisville +180 – The Cardinals captured a share of the Big East title and earned a No. 2 seed in the tiebreaker. Louisville comes into the tournament with the most momentum, winning seven in a row (5-2 ATS).

Upset watch: Marquette +600 – The Golden Eagles also took home a piece of the Big East season crown but got the short end of the straw in the tiebreaker as a No. 3 seed. Marquette plays great defense and shoots the ball well, two key components of winning the grueling conference tournament.

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 12-3 SU/11-4 ATS, Over/Under – 6-9

Big 12 – March 13-16

Favorite: Kansas -150 – The Jayhawks took the tiebreaker over KSU but no seed is safe in this conference. Kansas, which lost its last game to Baylor, could face Oklahoma or Iowa State in its second game. The Sooners have a win over KU and ISU took Rock Chalk to OT in both meetings this season.

Upset watch: Iowa State +500 – The Cyclones can flat out score, averaging more than 80 points per game – fourth in the country. Iowa State is getting more respect from books as a No. 5 seed than OU, which is priced at +800 as a No. 4 seed, and is on par with No. 2 seed KSU (+500).

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 7-2 SU/7-2 ATS, Over/Under – 7-2

Big Ten – March 14-17

Favorite: Indiana +120 – The Hoosiers edged out Michigan this past weekend to secure the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament. Indiana, however, takes on the winner of Minnesota-Illinois – two teams that beat IU last month.

Upset watch: Ohio State +400 – The price tag seems a little slim to call Ohio State an upset to watch, but the No. 2 seed is the fourth overall favorite in the tournament. The Buckeyes strut into the postseason on a five-game winning streak, which included victories over IU and MSU (+300).

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 7-4 SU/6-5 ATS, Over/Under - 7-4

Pac-12 – March 13-16

Favorite: UCLA/Arizona +260 – The Bruins and Wildcats have traded spots atop the Pac-12 all season, but it seems funny that the No. 4 Wildcats would be on par pricewise with No. 1 UCLA. Being the favorite doesn’t mean much in the most volatile conference in the land.

Upset watch: Colorado +500 – The Buffaloes took wins over the conference’s top teams but slipped up against weaker opponents, dragging Colorado down to a No. 5 seed. The loss of Andre Roberson (illness) is a big hit to take right before the postseason.

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 6-5 SU/5-6 ATS, Over/Under -3-8

SEC – March 13-17

Favorite: Florida -120 – The Gators limp into the SEC tournament after a loss to Kentucky in the season finale, going 2-2 SU in their final four games. Florida waits for the winner of LSU-Georgia in the quarterfinals.

Upset watch: Kentucky +800 – Could last weekend’s win over UF be the Wildcats’ wakeup call? Kentucky may need to win the entire SEC tourney to secure a place among the field of 68 NCAA teams. You won’t find a more talented underdog in the country.

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 8-3 SU/4-7 ATS, Over/Under – 6-5

Mountain West - March 12-15

Favorite: New Mexico +125 – The Lobos secured a No. 1 seed but took their foot off the gas in the final week of the schedule. New Mexico lost to Air Force in the finale, which could serve as a jolt of reality before the postseason.

Upset watch: Boise State +800 – Las Vegas has become a second home for BSU teams in the postseason. The Broncos won five of their final six contests, with the one loss coming by four points at UNLV. Boise State has wins over SDSU, CSU, UNLV and lost to New Mexico in OT this season.

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS, Over/Under – 4-3

Atlantic 10 – March 14-17

Favorite: Saint Louis +200 – The Billikens could nail down a nice seed in the NCAA with a tournament win. Saint Louis has been one of the hottest teams in the country, going 12-1 SU and ATS in its last 13 conference tilts.

Upset watch: Butler +600 – If any program knows how to get the job done in March, it’s Butler. The Bulldogs slid back to a No. 5 seed but entered the postseason off back-to-back wins. They open versus Dayton Thursday.

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 7-4 SU/5-6 ATS, Over/Under – 7-4

C-USA – March 13-16

Favorite: Memphis -125 – The Tigers are head and shoulders the top team in the C-USA, but Josh Pastner’s young roster could be looking ahead to the NCAA and get caught with their shorts down in the conference tournament.

Upset watch: Southern Mississippi +225 – The Golden Eagles earned the No. 2 seed in the C-USA tournament and will more than likely need to win the whole thing in order to make the cut for the NCAA tournament. But if coach Donnie Tyndall – formerly of Morehead State - knows one thing, it’s upsets.

2012 tournament record: Favorites – 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS, Over/Under – 6-9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting the Bubble: Four Teams Fighting for Field of 68
by Jason Logan

Conference tournaments are a last-gasp effort for many college basketball programs on the NCAA tournament bubble. These four teams need to put together impressive runs in their league’s postseason and possibly win it all to make the field of 68.

Illinois Fighting Illini (21-11 SU, 11-17 ATS)

Key wins: Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Indiana

The Illini looked like an NCAA lock a few weeks ago, but a season-ending slide and some upsets in the smaller conference tournaments have Illinois biting its nails entering the Big Ten tournament. The Fighting Illini open the first round versus Minnesota – a game that could determine which Big Ten program gets the NCAA nod. After that, Illinois would run into Indiana and another victory over the Hoosiers would go a long way on Selection Sunday.

Stanford Cardinal (18-13 SU, 13-15-1 ATS)

Key wins: Cal x2, Oregon

Conference wins just won’t cut it in the Pac-12 this year. Top teams can fall to bottom teams on any given night. Stanford played some tough non-conference foes – NC State, Missouri, Minnesota – but didn’t come away with a resume win. The Cardinal will likely have to roll all the way to the Pac-12 tournament championship to get into the Big Dance. It’s not impossible at +700. They’ve won two in a row heading into a matchup with Arizona State in the opener before a possible meeting with UCLA in the second round.

Arkansas Razorbacks (19-12 SU, 12-11 ATS)

Key wins: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Kentucky

The biggest jab against Arkansas is that it can’t win on the road. All of its marquee wins came inside Bud Walton Arena while the Hogs fell flat on the highway, going 1-9 SU. The SEC could send as few as three teams to the tournament and with Florida and Missouri locked in, that leaves Arkansas fighting Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama for the final ticket. The Razorbacks are set up well as a No. 7 seed, taking on Vanderbilt before a matchup with Kentucky and possibly Ole Miss beyond that.

Temple Owls (23-8 SU, 14-15 ATS)

Key wins: Syracuse, Villanova, Saint Louis, La Salle, VCU

Want to see how good the A-10 is this season? The conference is projected to send at least five teams to the tournament. That’s on par with many major conferences and more than leagues like the ACC and SEC will likely send to the NCAA. The unfair part though, is if the mid-major leagues continue to have upset winners, the first conference getting its at-large bids chopped is the A-10. The Owls have a great resume and a ton of momentum heading into the conference tournament. Add to that the fear of not making the field of 68 and there is solid value with Temple at +600 to win the A-10 tournament.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

CBB Wednesday Cliff Notes

Boise State-San Diego State: These two just ended the regular season playing each other four days ago in a game both teams needed to win, and Boise won at SDSU by four. In that game they held the Aztecs, to 3-16 from behind the arc. Both teams went to the line over twenty times and both shot well over 80% from said line. That was at Boise, and SDSU won in San Diego by one. With the Aztecs having basically no quality road wins in Conference play, I suppose the natural tendency would be to fade them, but do they lose to Boise twice in four days? Since Boise is still listed as one of the last four in and on the bubble, they've got to be more "needy" here. Perhaps the fact that SDSU beat Boise in THIS game last year by three is even more motivation. What I do love about taking a smaller team like Boise here is that they get to the line a fair bit and shoot over 75% as a team, which over the course of 40 minutes is just safer. This could be another of those games where I see the Broncos have more ways to win, at least at this point.

Cincinnati-Providence: From a distance standpoint Providence is not a long drive to MSG. Before I go any further I can almost tell you it's the Friars or nothing. Bearcats simply have too many issues scoring, except when I bet on them. If I do take Cincinnati then Wright and Kilpatrick will simply go off. Friars have won seven of the last nine, with the only real bad loss coming at Syracuse. Not BAD to lose to the Orange on the road, but they got killed. They (Providence) beat Cincinnati by four at home in a low scoring game. Bearcats have struggled with just about everyone the second half of Conference play, which is/was a bit surprising because they did play a pretty solid non-conference schedule. Technically Cincinnati is in the Dance (not really sure why) and the Friars are not, so there could be the letdown for the Bearcats here, meaning my original "night before" thought is Providence or nothing. But, on paper, Cincinnati ought to win. Whoever dictates tempo will win, and because it's easier to slow a game down rather than speed it up, perhaps the Bearcats are in play, but certainly not a GOM or anything. Yet.

Arizona State-Stanford: Arizona State need a great showing to perhaps have a SLIGHT chance of getting in, while Stanford has to be disappointed with this season, given that they had basically the whole team back that won the NIT last year, so clearly that edge (who wants to be here) has to go to ASU. But, Stanford had two great wins to close out the season, beating Utah badly and winning at Cal. ASU lost to Stanford by three at home in their only meeting this season. ASU ended the season with four straight losses, three of them predictable and on the road, so how do THEY regroup this quickly. What concerns me here is that Stanford will want to push the pace and ASU is super-thin off the bench, and seeing as how ASU simply cannot shoot free throws, it's Stanford's game to lose, I think.

Villanova-St. Johns: I look more at this as a game of Steve Lavin versus Jay Wright, actually. Villanova played some great basketball the last month of the season, while St. Johns lost seven of the last nine, five of which were on the road and the two home losses were to Marquette and Pittsburgh, so MAYBE there a little under valued. St. Johns lost in OT at Villanova way back on January 2nd in a surprisingly high scoring game (meaning this total may be too high) and one thing to remember is that this IS a home game for the Red Storm, who are about the youngest team in the nation, which gives me some pause, of course. I of course love that the Wildcats get the highest percentage of points of any team in the nation, but what we hate is that they really have turnover issues at times. And in spite of St. Johns' youth, they do not have a problem protecting the ball, just scoring when they do have it. Since 'Nova is technically in right now, I'd have to think that PERHAPS we could make a small case for taking the points. But a very small one.

Washington State-Washington: Neither of these two are going anywhere. If State loses their playing golf on Thursday (well, maybe Friday) and if Washington wins they're probably an NIT team. With that in mind and given that this is a rivalry (duh) I would, without looking, try to take Washington State. They played Washington tough both times they played, and did win their last two home games. When Washington gets out of the Alaska Airlines Arena (which I would have thought would be in Alaska) they are not the same team, at least not the second half of Conference Play. Since we know it's easier to slow a game down, this would perhaps be another reason to lean to Washington State, who plays (walks) slow. What WS will have to do to win this game is stop Washington, the number one rebounding team in the Pac-12 (they ARE big) from getting second chance points. State is not SMALL and they CAN rebound well, however. State is simply going to have to make their three's and continue to get to the line, but Washington does defend the perimeter well. State has to stop Washington, mainly N'Diaye, from scoring inside, and they've got nearly the worst interior defense in the Conference. Now, Washington HAS has some turnover issues and State CAN force some, so there's hope here yet for the "weaker sister". I do certainly look for this one to stay under the number, however.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bank Shots: NBA Betting News & Notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of March 3-March 9.

HOTTEST ATS

Denver Nuggets (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Denver continues to be a great bet (39-24-1 ATS) as well as a profitable over play (38-26 O/U). The Nuggets have won eight straight games, covering in seven of those contests. Denver visits Phoenix Monday before returning to Pepsi Center for two tough games against the Knicks and Grizzlies.

COLDEST ATS

Charlotte Bobcats (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Charlotte has dropped 10 straight games straight up and ATS, making it great fade material. The Bobcats host the Celtics Tuesday before heading to Toronto for a clash with the Raptors.

BEST OVER PLAY

Orlando Magic (1-3 SU, 3-1 Over/under)

The Magic stayed true to their form as a good over play this past week. Orlando has played over the number in six of its last eight to improve its season O/U mark to a very profitable 34-25-4 for its over bettors. The Magic host Philadelphia and Los Angeles (Lakers) early this week before embarking on a four-game road trip.

BEST UNDER PLAY

Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2 SU, 0-3 over/Under)

The Timberwolves are devastated by injuries and had only nine healthy players on their roster this past week. Star F Kevin Love (hand) is targeting a mid-March return, but the T-Wolves could continue to struggle to score until he's healthy. Minnesota is averaging just 85.3 points per game over its last three games, nearly 10 points lower than its season average (94.7). The Timberwolves host Dallas Sunday and then San Antonio rolls into Minny on Tuesday.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Brooklyn Nets play nine of their next 11 games away from the Barclays Center. The Nets have been a good under play away from home, posting a 10-18-1 O/U mark.

-The Houston Rockets begin a season-long seven-game homestand Wednesday when the Phoenix Suns visit. The Rockets are 18-11 O/U at the Toyota Center.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

3:00PM Air Force vs UNLV
[639] UNDER 135 -110

4:30PM SMU vs UAB
[647] UNDER 132.5 -110

7:30PM Mississippi State vs South Carolina
[661](KINGS RANSOM-2 UNIT PLAY) UNDER 128 -110

9:35PM Detroit Red Wings vs Calgary Flames
[55] UNDER 5 +115

10:00PM Auburn vs Texas A&M
[663] OVER 119 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Grambling St. +18 over Alabama A&M.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Bucks won six of their last eight games (5-1 last six AU).
-- Miami won its last 19 games (7-0 last seven AF).
-- Pacers won seven of last ten games (7-5 last 12 HF).
-- Lakers won five of last six games (1-4 last five AU).
-- Celtics lost last two games, but won last nine at home (6-1 last seven HF).
-- Thunder won five of their last six games (12-1 last 13 HF).
-- Rockets won six of last seven home games (11-2 last 13 HF).
-- Warriors won five of last seven home games (4-7 last 11 HF).
-- Denver won its last nine games (8-1 last nine HF). Knicks won six of last nine games (4-5 AU)- this is Anthony's return to Denver.
-- Grizzlies won their last five games (5-5 HF). Clippers won six of last eight games (4-1 last five HF).

Cold Teams
-- Wizards lost five of their last seven games (4-6 HF).
-- 76ers lost five of their last six games (2-4 last six HU).
-- Minnesota lost eight of last ten games (3-10-1 last 14 AU).
-- Hawks lost six of their last seven games (2-5 last seven HF).
-- Toronto lost six of its last eight games (8-3-1 last 12 AU).
-- Jazz lost seven of their last nine games (4-8 last 12 AU).
-- Suns lost three of their last four games (4-6-1 last 11 AU).
-- Bulls lost their last four road games (6-4 last ten AF). Kings lost seven of their last ten games (7-9 HU).
-- Pistons lost their last six games (1-5 last six AU).

Totals
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games went over the total; five of last six Washington games stayed under.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Miami games.
-- Last five Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Three of Toronto's last four road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Utah road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Houston home games went over total.
-- Seven of last ten Chicago games stayed under the total; eight of last ten Sacramento games went over.
-- Last four Golden State games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven New York games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Memphis road games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Bucks are 5-10 vs spread if they played night before, 4-4 on the road. Washington is 11-3 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Miami is 5-2 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 5-6 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Lakers are 5-3-1 vs spread when playing second consecutive night on road. Atlanta is 9-7 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Memphis is 9-4 vs spread if it played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Canadiens won last three games, scoring 13 goals.

Cold teams
-- Senators lost five of their last six games.
-- Flyers lost three of their last four games. New Jersey lost seven of last nine.
-- Flames lost last three games, outscored 12-3. Detroit lost last two, 3-2(so)/3-0.


Totals
-- Montreal's last seven games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six New Jersey games.
-- Last seven Detroit games stayed under the total.


Series records
-- Home side won last six Montreal-Ottawa games.
-- Flyers lost their last six games against New Jersey.
-- Red Wings won seven of last ten games with Calgary.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/13/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3716-1280 (.744)
ATS: 1755-1794 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 4954-5288 (.484)
Over/Under: 503-464 (.520)
Over/Under Vary Units: 555-543 (.505)

Big 12 Conference Tournament
1st Round at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Texas 69, Tcu 58
West Virginia 71, Texas Tech 64

Big East Conference Tournament
2nd Round at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Notre Dame 65, Rutgers 59
Providence 61, Cincinnati 60
Syracuse 65, Seton Hall 55
Villanova 66, St. John's 61

Conference USA Tournament
1st Round at BOK Center, Tulsa, OK
Houston 83, Rice 69
Marshall vs. Tulane: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Uab 68, Smu 65

Mid-American Conference Tournament
2nd Round at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Miami (Ohio) vs. Eastern Michigan: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Buffalo vs. Ball State: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC
Norfolk State 69, Bethune-Cookman 61
North Carolina Central 57, North Carolina A&T 49

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Boise State 66, San Diego State 65
Colorado State 66, Fresno State 59
New Mexico 64, Wyoming 52
UNLV 71, Air Force 61

Pacific-12 Conference Tournament
1st Round at MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Colorado 70, Oregon State 63
Stanford 71, Arizona State 66
Usc 64, Utah 61
Washington 65, Washington State 63

Patriot League Tournament
Championship at Sojka Pavilion, Lewisburg, PA
BUCKNELL 66, Lafayette 61

Southeastern Conference Tournament
1st Round at campus sites
South Carolina 67, Mississippi State 65
1st Round at campus sites
Texas A&M 66, Auburn 60

Southland Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
McNeese State 73, Nicholls State 71
Sam Houston State 75, Central Arkansas 70

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
1st Round at Special Events Center, Garland, TX
Alabama A&M 69, Grambling State 54

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/13/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 621-296 (.677)
ATS: 490-452 (.520)
ATS Vary Units: 1257-1135 (.526)
Over/Under: 481-461 (.511)
Over/Under Vary Units: 660-605 (.522)

Miami 100, PHILADELPHIA 90
WASHINGTON 99, Milwaukee 96
INDIANA 101, Minnesota 87
BOSTON 99, Toronto 91
ATLANTA 102, L.A. Lakers 100
HOUSTON 111, Phoenix 100
OKLAHOMA CITY 111, Utah 97
Chicago 99, SACRAMENTO 97
DENVER 109, New York 100
L.A. CLIPPERS 96, Memphis 90
GOLDEN STATE 105, Detroit 96

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

03/13/13 Predictions

Season: 142-98 (.592)

MONTREAL 3, Ottawa 2
Philadelphia vs. NEW JERSEY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit vs. CALGARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty pushed with Valparaiso (-8) Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s Cincinnati. The deficit is 90 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 997-741 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Eastern Mich + 2 1/2