3-1-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS
9* NCAA Personal Favorite
MANHATTAN PK

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Top 4: Best Double-Digit Underdog Bets

NBA bettors are going to see pointspreads get bigger and bigger as the playoffs draw near. Teams in the postseason hunt will clash with clubs with no playoff prayer in the next two months, leaving oddsmakers no choice but to pile on the chalk.

The struggling Minnesota Timberwolves are a perfect example of that, getting 10.5 points from books for Thursday's road game versus the postseason-pushing Los Angeles Lakers.

Double-digit underdogs have only shown up 99 times this season heading into Thursday, going 47-50-2 against the spread (10-89 SU). But there are some teams who have made the most of those points, coming up big for backers when tagged as double-digit dogs.

Washington Wizards (3-8 SU, 8-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs)

The Wizards are the biggest betting surprise of the season, posting a 34-20-2 ATS record. Washington has thrived as a double-digit dog, going 8-3 ATS. Most of those came on the road, where the Wiz are a stellar 17-9-1 ATS.

Orlando Magic (2-6 SU, 7-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs)

One of the reasons why Washington is third in the Southeast Division is the poor play of Orlando this year. The Magic have only four wins in their last 33 games but have covered as double-digit dogs in five of their six contests when getting 10 or more points.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2-6 SU, 7-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs)

Cleveland recently covered as 12.5-point pups at Miami, giving the champion Heat a scare in a 109-105 loss on Feb. 24. The Cavaliers have been the hot bet – no matter what the spread – in recent weeks (6-0 ATS in their last six), and will likely see double-digit spreads in upcoming games with the Clippers, Grizzlies, and Spurs.

Dallas Mavericks (0-5 SU, 4-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs)

At first glance, we thought these numbers were off. But, the Mavs have been big pups in five games this season – at Clippers, at Miami, at OKC, at San Antonio, at Memphis – and while they lost all five of those outings, they managed to cover in all but one. Don’t hold your breath waiting for the next opportunity to back Dirk & Co. as a Triple-D but they could get 10 or more points in San Antonio on March 14.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Grizzlies at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know

Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat (-8, 187.5)

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Miami Heat have combined to win 20 straight games. One of the two longest current winning streaks in the NBA will come to an end on Friday when the Heat host the Grizzlies. Miami has taken 12 straight and is beginning to run away with the Eastern Conference as its defense catches up to LeBron James and the offense. Memphis and its league-best scoring defense is victorious in eight straight.

James added to his MVP resume with 40 points and 16 assists in a 141-129 double-overtime win over Sacramento on Tuesday, improving the Heat’s league-best home record to 25-3. Miami has looked far from invincible in its last two games, however, needing a late surge to topple Cleveland on Sunday before the scare against lowly Sacramento. The Grizzlies are allowing 89.5 points on the season and held the Dallas Mavericks to five in the third quarter of Wednesday’s 90-84 triumph. The 84 points marked the most the team has surrendered in its last four contests.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, SPSO (Memphis), SUN (Miami), ESPN

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (38-18): Memphis went through a transitional period in the wake of the trade that sent Rudy Gay to Toronto at the end of January, but has found itself again as a defensive force. The Grizzlies are surrendering 86.6 points during their winning streak while receiving just enough offense from the likes of Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley to earn victories. Only one of the last eight triumphs has come by more than seven points. Without Gay around to dominate the ball, Memphis is playing more to its strengths on the interior. Randolph has recorded five straight double-doubles and Gasol has picked up his pace with 18 points and 10.7 rebounds over his last three contests. Gasol was held to two points and 10 boards in the first meeting with Miami but Randolph went for 18 and 12 and the defense held the Heat to 38 percent shooting in a 104-86 home win on Nov. 11.

ABOUT THE HEAT (41-14): James scored 20 points on 10-of-19 shooting in the Nov. 11 meeting but Dwyane Wade was held to eight points on 3-of-15 from the floor. Wade has been much stronger during the Heat’s recent surge and went for 39 points in Tuesday’s win over the Kings. The All-Star guard has complimented James with an average of 24.5 points on over 50 percent shooting during the winning streak. James is averaging 29.8 points on 65 percent shooting, 8.3 assists and 7.6 rebounds over the last 12 games. The reigning MVP has become even more of an Internet sensation due to his pregame dunking routine, which he uses to help get his team get pumped up in the final minutes of warmups. Miami had allowed an average of 92.4 points in the first 10 games of its streak before letting up a bit at home over the last two.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in Heat’s last six home games.
* Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference foes.
* Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 8-2 in Heat’s last 10 overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Memphis has won two of its last three trips to Miami, including a 97-82 triumph on Apr. 6 last season.

2. Heat F Shane Battier (hamstring) and G Mike Miller (sinus infection) are both questionable for Friday.

3. Miami has not won 13 in a row since a franchise-best 14-game streak in 2004-05.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Betting: Nuggets Continue to Soar Over Totals

No team has taken advantage of the All-Star break more than the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets have used the extra rest to fuel their offense and play over the total in four of five (4-1 SU) since the break, picking up right where they left off as an awesome over play for bettors. Oddsmakers continue to set the bar higher and higher for this team as the season progresses, but the Nugs seem to continually rise to the occasion.

Denver boasts a 37-22 O/U mark heading into action Friday against Oklahoma City and is 20-4 O/U in its last 24 contests. The Nuggets are averaging 105.5 points per game (3rd) and allowing 101.8 points (26th) – the perfect storm for an over play.

Denver has pumped up its offensive output even more over its last five games, putting up an average of 110.6 points. Oddsmakers have failed in their attempts to counter the scoring frenzy, despite setting an average total of 209.5 for those contests.

Danilo Gallinari, who has missed the last two games with a thigh injury, leads a well-balanced Nuggets attack that features six players that average double digits in scoring on a nightly basis.

Denver has also been pounding the glass, hauling in an average of 45 rebounds per night (2nd) and a league-best 13.5 offensive boards. The second-chance opportunities are a major reason why the Nuggets continue to soar over 100 points with ease.

Denver plays four of its next five games at Pepsi Center against over-friendly opposition. Those opponents (Thunder, Hawks, Kings, Clippers, T-Wolves) have a combined 151-129-5 O/U mark.

Oddsmakers have sent out a suggested total of 220 for Friday's contest, which would be the highest number both teams have seen this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Baseball Classic

Preview & Sleepers

Betting on spring training is a good warm up for baseball bettors, but wagering on the World Baseball Classic is a more enticing option.

Play gets underway on March 1, so it’s time to get down to business.

The 16-team field is broken into four pools of four teams each. The first round will be played as a round-robin tournament where every team plays other members of its pool once.

The second round is a modified double-elimination tournament, and the championship round requires a team to win two games (semifinal and final) in order to be declared the WBC champs.

Here are the group breakdowns and one sleeper team that could advance in each pool. All futures odds are courtesy of UWIN.

Pool A

Brazil (+10,000), China (+3,300), Cuba (+2,500), Japan (+200)

Sleeper team: Brazil

Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin is the manager of Brazil, which is making its first WBC appearance after upsetting Panama in qualifying. The Brazilian squad is loaded with developing talent, as 11 players are currently playing in various minor league systems. This young team has nothing to lose and everything to gain in a tough group.

Pool B

Australia (+6,600), Chinese Taipei (+2,200), Korea (+1,400), Netherlands (+3,300)

Sleeper team: Netherlands

Pitching won’t be a strong suit for the Netherlands, but its bats may be the talk of Group B. The Dutch infield is loaded with top MLB prospects like Andrelton Simmons (Braves), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), and Jonathan Schoop (Orioles). The Netherlands also has some proven MLB talent to rely on. Andruw Jones and Roger Bernadina will patrol the outfield for the Dutch.

Pool C

Dominican Republic (+350), Puerto Rico (+1,600), Spain (+10,000), Venezuela (+800)

Sleeper team: The Dominican Republic is stacked and will be hard to beat, but if anyone has a chance to derail them it’s Venezuela. Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Gonzalez will be counted on to drive in runs, while Jhoulys Chacin and Anibal Sanchez should keep opposing hitters at bay.

Pool D

Canada (+1,400), Italy (+10,000), Mexico (+2,000), United States (+250)

Sleeper team: Mexico

Pool D is loaded with MLB talent and Mexico is no exception. Brewers’ ace Yovani Gallardo is a force to be reckoned with and Adrian Gonzalez is a proven run producer. Former major leaguers Jorge Cantu and Karim Garcia will provide a veteran presence and have experience hitting big league pitching.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/01/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3375-1156 (.745)
ATS: 1557-1591 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 4456-4778 (.483)
Over/Under: 430-414 (.509)
Over/Under Vary Units: 447-485 (.480)

Atlantic Sun Conference
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 70, USC Upstate 68

Horizon League
LOYOLA (CHICAGO) 64, Cleveland State 61

Ivy League
COLUMBIA 62, Yale 61
CORNELL 67, Brown 58
PENN 66, Dartmouth 53
PRINCETON 62, Harvard 59

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
IONA 78, Loyola (Md.) 75
MANHATTAN 57, Fairfield 53
Marist 68, SIENA 66

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/01/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 551-278 (.665)
ATS: 439-411 (.516)
ATS Vary Units: 1159-1044 (.526)
Over/Under: 440-411 (.517)
Over/Under Vary Units: 621-552 (.529)

Indiana 95, TORONTO 92
WASHINGTON 97, New York 95
Houston 108, ORLANDO 101
BOSTON 102, Golden State 98
MIAMI 98, Memphis 89
L.A. Clippers 102, CLEVELAND 97
BROOKLYN 101, Dallas 98
NEW ORLEANS 97, Detroit 92
SAN ANTONIO 115, Sacramento 98
UTAH 106, Charlotte 92
Atlanta 99, PHOENIX 97
Oklahoma City 110, DENVER 109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

03/01/13 Predictions

Season: 103-82 (.557)

ST. LOUIS 3, Edmonton 2
CHICAGO 4, Columbus 2
ANAHEIM 3, Minnesota 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Wizards +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won three of last four games (13-6-2 HU).
-- Pacers won five of their last six games (9-2 AF).
-- Clippers won seven of last eight games (3-8 last 11 AF). Cleveland won four of last five games, covered last six (5-2 last seven HU).
-- Heat won their last twelve games (11-7 last 18 HF). Grizzlies won last eight games (4-5 AU).
-- Nets won five of last seven games (6-11-1 last 18 HF).
-- Spurs won six of last eight games (1-3-1 last five HF).
-- Hawks won six of last seven games (7-4 last 11 AF). Suns won last two games, both in OT, after losing seven of previous eight (2-6 last eight HU).
-- Denver won four of its last five games (5-1 last six HF). Thunder won last three games, by 16-30-45 points (2-6 last eight AF).

Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost four of last five road games (0-3-1 last four AF).
-- Raptors lost three of last four games (9-6 HU).
-- Houston lost last two games by total of five points (2-6 AF). Magic lost six of last seven games (1-4 last five HU).
-- Warriors lost seven of last ten games (1-8 last nine AU). Celtics lost four of last seven games (4-1 last five HF).
-- Mavericks lost last three games, by 4-5-6 points (8-2 last 10 AU).
-- New Orleans lost five of last six games (5-3-1 last nine HF). Pistons lost four of last six games (3-5 last eight AU).
-- Kings lost six of last seven games (5-9 last 14 AU).
-- Bobcats lost their last four games (2-4 last six AU). Utah lost its last three games, by 11-3-13 points (3-6 last nine HF).

Totals
-- Last four New York games went over the total. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Washington games.
-- Five of last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Houston games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Golden State games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten Miami games went over the total.
-- Last three Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games.
-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine Sacramento games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Atlanta's last ten games.
-- 11 of last 14 Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Denver games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Pacers are 8-6 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Clippers are 4-6 vs spread on road if they played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Dartmouth lost its last five games, all by 9+ points; they lost 67-57 at home to Penn Feb 16, after leading by 12 at half. Big Green shot 35.6% for game; Quakers shot 64% inside arc. Ivy league home favorites of 7+ points are 7-8 vs spread. Penn split its four Ivy home games, winning by 4-23 points; they're 3-2 in last five games overall. Dartmouth is 1-4 on Ivy road, losing by 5-23-9-11 points.
-- Brown lost five of last seven games, losing last three road games, by 7-17-23 points; they turned ball over 16 times (-7) in 69-66 home loss to Cornell Jan 16, when both sides were 8-20 from arc. Bruins are 1-4 on Ivy road, losing by 12-7-17-23 points, with two of those losses in OT. Ivy League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-5 vs spread. Cornell is 1-4 at home in Ivy, with only win by 23 over Dartmouth.
-- Yale won four of last six games, winning at Princeton/Penn in last two on road; Bulldogs shot 70% (28-40) inside arc in 75-56 home win over Columbia Jan 16, game Yale led 43-21 at half. Ivy League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-5 vs spread. Lions lost seven of last nine games, but they upset first-place Harvard here; five of Columbia's seven losses in conference play are by six or less points.
-- Harvard won eight of last nine games; they lead Princeton by game in Ivy standings; since there is no tournament in Ivy, Harvard win here will pretty much put them in NCAAs. Crimson beat Princeton 69-57 Jan 16 at home, game they led by 4 at half. Ivy League home favorites of 7 or less points are 5-7 vs spread. Harvard's only Ivy loss was at Columbia by 15. Princeton is 4-1 at home in Ivy, with only loss to Yale.

-- Siena won 79-75 at Marist Jan 27, after trailing by 13 in first 9:00 of game; Saints lost five of last six games, with five losses by 10+ points. Six of seven Siena wins this season were by 4 or less points, or in OT. Seven of last eight Marist games were decided by 6 or less points; they are 1-7 on MAAC road, with only win in double OT at Iona. MAAC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 5-3 against the spread.
-- Fairfield won seven of its last nine games, winning last two on road, by 7-10 points, but one of losses was awful 62-40 loss to Manhattan at home, when Stags shot 25.4% from floor, 7-18 from foul line. MAAC home teams are 9-6 if spread is 3 or less points. Jaspers won five of last six games after starting season 6-15; they've won three of last four home games, with only loss in that span to Niagara by four.
-- Loyola won five of last six games, with three of five wins by 4 or less points; Greyhounds were outscored 20-8 on line in 79-71 home loss to Iona Jan 27, when Gaels shot 58% inside arc. Snakebit Iona lost six of its last seven games, with three losses in OT, and other three all by 3 or less points, including one loss where team hit 65-footer at buzzer to force an OT. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-15 vs spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Blackhawks won their last seven games.
-- Anaheim won seven of its last eight games. Minnesota won four of last five.

Cold teams
-- Oilers lost nine of last thirteen games. St Louis lost three of last four.
-- Blue Jackets lost nine of their last eleven games.

Totals
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Edmonton games.
-- Last four Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Anaheim games went over total. Under is 6-2-1 in Minnesota's last nine.

Series records
-- Blues won nine of last eleven games with Edmonton.
-- Blackhawks won last nine games against Columbus.
-- Road team won five of last six Minnesota-Anaheim games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Anaheim Ducks -160 over Minnesota Wild
(System Record: 22-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 22-16

Basketball Crusher
Memphis Grizzlies +8 over Miami Heat
(System Record: 67-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 67-49-1

Soccer Crusher
Quilmes + Atl.Rafaela UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 364-14, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 364-315-43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club Selection 01/03/2013
CBB:
#829 Yale +4