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NFL runs:
Lenny del genio 11-3, larry ness 10-5, matt fargo 8-8, hollywood sports 7-8, scott spreitzer 4-7, marc lawrence 0-5
Marc's NFL Perfect System Club Saturday Key Play!
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions Dec 22 2012 8:30PM
Play On: Detroit Lions (Game 102) Note: The NFL switches gears from Thursday to Saturday and that's not good news for the Falcons after last week’s balls-to-the-wall playoff-revenge win over the Giants.. For openers we’ll let you know that Atlanta is 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS on Saturday off a SU win while the hardcore handicapper will be happy to learn that teams off a shutout win from Game Thirteen out are 6-25 SU and 8-23 ATS on the road in non-division games since 1980. Furthermore, our database reminds us that NFL teams returning home off a previous 0-3 SU and ATS home stand are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS as a pick or dog since 1980. And for added measure, our Midweek Alert reminds us that the Lions’ stats this season (10-4 ‘ITS’, +59 net YPG) belie their 4-10 record. The clincher comes from our PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB as it tells us to: 'Play On' any NFL dog of less than 7 points on Saturday if they are off a SU favorite loss in which they lost to the spread by more than 10 points. That's because these dogs are 11-0 ATS in this role since 1980. Back the Lions in their den here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Detroit. Thank you and good luck as always. Be sure to get down now on Marc's Most Valuable Play on Sunday's NFL card. It's a 4* beauty in a NEVER LOST winning situation. Get it now and put it right at the top of your Sunday ticket - you'll be glad you did!
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Bet Type: SPREAD
Fargo's 10* NFL SATURDAY ENFORCER (HUGE 21-10 RUN)
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions Dec 22 2012 8:30PM
The Falcons are now a win away from clinching a first round bye in the playoffs after dismantling the Giants last Sunday. While the win was impressive, it can be chalked up as the Giants losing the game as they had opportunities to keep the game close early but missed a short third down conversion which led to a missed field goal and then missed a short fourth down conversion in the second quarter. This is obviously a big one for Atlanta but this is a big number to be putting down in this spot. The Lions season has unraveled pretty quickly as after a 4-4 start, they have dropped six straight games and you can blame turnovers. Last week in their 28-point loss to the Cardinals, they had four turnovers including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. During the six-game losing streak, Detroit outgained four opponents by a total of 286 yards while it was outgained in the two other games by only 43 total yards so it is clearly playing better than that winless record indicates. Motivation plays a big part in handicapping this time of year and while Atlanta has it, we have to make sure Detroit has it as well. "Everybody in the league is the same way," Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said. "I dare you to find a team in the NFL that will say we're playing for next year or stuff like that. There's too much urgency in this league. There's too much at stake every single week for individuals as players, for coaches, for organizations. There's too much every single week to strive to win for." Despite allowing 38 points last week, the Lions defense was excellent once again as it allowed just 196 total yards. Overall, the defense is ranked 12th in the NFL while the offense is ranked second and those rankings usually do not fit a team that is 4-10. Both of those rankings are better than those of the Falcons so staying on the right side of the turnovers is what needs to be done for Detroit. Heading back home after a two-game roadtrip and on the national stage will have the Lions ready. Detroit falls into two solid situations. We play on home underdogs or pickems coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 75-35 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by 28 or more points while Atlanta is 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (102) Detroit Lions
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Bet Type: SPREAD
Team Del Genio 10* NFC West Game of the Year!
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Dec 23 2012 8:30PM
Play on Seattle at 8:25 ET. Here we go. San Francisco was kind to us last week as they went on the road to New England and upset the Patriots 41-34 in a wild Sunday Night Game. It was New England's first home loss in the month of December in a decade. But now having to go to Seattle where the home team has not lost this year, is asking too much. Lost in the big San Francisco win last week was the fact they blew a 28-point lead. They aren't going to be as fortunate this week against a Seahawks team that is peaking at the right time. Seattle is just the 3rd team in NFL history, and first since the 1950s, to score 50+ pts in consecutive weeks. This is a revenge game for Pete Carroll's team. The last and only time they were in a revenge situation this season was Arizona two weeks ago and they won that contest 58-0. As just briefly touched on, the Seahawks have not lost at home this season. They are 6-0 at Qwest Field thus far holding foes to an average of just 11.2 PPG. They are outscoring opponents here by an average of 18.7 PPG and have covered every game. They have not lost a game all season by more than seven points. Predictably, after the nation watched the Niners upset New England last week, this money has come in on them. Fine by us as Seattle is 8-1 ATS the last nine times it has been a home dog or pick. They are 12-1 ATS as a dog under Carroll overall. They have in fact covered seven straight home games vs. NFC West foes. Under Carroll, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home seeking revenge for a road loss. With the bad blood that exists between Carroll and Jim Harbaugh, Seattle should be extra motivated here. Carroll has lost four straight times to San Francisco as well. The Niners won a tough 13-6 game on a Thursday Night earlier in the year. Seattle would go on to lose the following week at Detroit, but has since won six of seven with the only loss coming on a late field goal in an early start time. Look for another low-scoring game here between these two division rivals, this time with the Seahawks coming out on top, and don't be surprised to see these teams meet again in the playoffs. Going from Foxboro back West to Qwest Field for a pair of primetime games is a brutal spot for visiting San Francisco. Seattle is our NFC West Game of the Year.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Bet Type: SPREAD
Team Del Genio Sat Night Odds Mismatch (63% TY!)
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions Dec 22 2012 8:30PM
Play on Atlanta at 8:30 ET. Typically, this would scream "trap" for the Falcons, but the Lions have turned into such a disaster that the situation is now largely irrelevant. At 4-10, Detroit ranks among the most poorly coached teams in the league. At least many of the soon to be fired coaches in this league can cite a lack of talent on their respective rosters. What's Jim Schwartz's excuse? The Lions have lost six straight (1-5 ATS) and since last year's 5-0 start are now just 9-16 SU their last 25 games. With nothing to play for here (final home game is next week), why would anyone expect any added motivation from the home side here? Detroit just faced an Arizona team that had lost nine straight contests and lost 38-10 as 5.5-point road favorites. It just doesn't get much more embarrassing than that. Atlanta, meanwhile, turned in arguably their best effort of the season, shutting out the Giants 34-0. A win here would give the Falcons home field advantage in the NFC, something they dearly need as they have yet to lose at the Georgia Dome all season. While they've lost two of their last three on the road, and won the other by only one point, they should be in line for another strong showing here. It would be nice to get the win here and then essentially have a three-week break before the Divisional Round of the playoffs as they could simply rest starters for next week's reg season finale vs. Tampa Bay. Atlanta won on this field last year, 23-16 as a 4.5-point dog. Staying indoors is favorable to the Falcons. We can't see them having a letdown here after such a big win, considering what is in front of them. We're more than willing to lay this small number. Atlanta is our 8* NFL Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Bet Type: SPREAD
Fargo's 10* NFL DARK HORSE DANDY (SWEET 10-3 RUN)
Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers Dec 23 2012 1:00PM
Carolina has been very impressive the last two weeks in its wins over Atlanta and San Diego but that makes this the perfect time to go against the Panthers. It is extremely difficult to justify a team that is 5-9 on the season to be favored over a team that is just one game worse by this many points. I have been on the Panthers quite a few times this season but not when they have been favored as they have lost four of five games outright when laying points and this is by far the largest they have put down this season. Oakland is coming off an impressive win over Kansas City and while beating the Chiefs is far from quality, it gave this team some much needed confidence and momentum to try and close the season strong. The victory snapped a six-game losing skid for Oakland and the big factor was that it was able to run the ball which is a key to the Raiders success. They have not done very well on the east coast but considering this is the same line they got in Baltimore and Cincinnati, two playoff teams, the value is definitely there. The Raiders rushed for a season high 203 yards against Kansas City and it was just the fifth time all season they have surpassed even 100 yards on the ground. They are 3-2 in those games but one of those losses was at Atlanta where they lost by just a field goal. Carolina's rushing defense has been great the last two weeks but it will be put to the test here with a healthy Darren McFadden which is huge for Oakland. The Panthers have allowed over 120 yards rushing in eight of their 14 games this season. A lot of the talk now is about the resurgent Cam Newton and in all fairness, he has been exceptional over his last five games. Facing the Raiders would think to keep that going but they are coming off their best game of the season and the defense can feed off that effort. Carolina is coming off two 30-point efforts but it is still ranked 22nd in scoring offense and it hasn't been consistent enough to keep rolling like this. With a game at New Orleans to close out the season, look for a possible lookahead here as well. The Raiders fall into a great contrarian situation here as well as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 83-46 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. Carolina is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games while the Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. Too many points to pass up here. 10* (105) Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
Bet Type: SPREAD
Fargo's 10* NFL SNF PRIMETIME (BLAZING 21-10-1 RUN
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Dec 23 2012 8:30PM
I won with New England two weeks ago as it easily took care of Houston on national television. Based on that and the whole public to see, I went against the Patriots and took the 49ers and they were able to take out New England, again on national television. Now San Francisco is riding the overinflated public side angle and it is playing its second straight difficult road game in one of the most difficult venues in the league. The 49ers are a great team but not in a great position. The Seahawks have won three straight games to climb right into the playoff picture and the divisional race for that matter. Seattle is 9-5 and it has the best record in the NFC for non-divisional leaders so getting that first Wild Card spot is looking good as it can clinch with a win. Seattle and Atlanta are the only two remaining undefeated home teams in the league heading into this week. The last home loss for the Seahawks came last season in the final home game and it was against the 49ers so it looks to be payback time. Normally, playing on a team like Seattle is a no-no as it is coming off consecutive blowout wins where it put up a ton of points and that typically is a play against situation if anything. There is a big difference here though. Those teams coming off big win tend to get overvalued next time out but that isn't the case here as the Seahawks have moved to a home underdog in some spots. As a rule, we would have to lay down a lot of points to grab Seattle but instead we are getting value this week. While the scores the past two weeks have appeared to be somewhat an anomaly, the Seahawks were trending upward in scoring even before the two blowouts. Over the past eight weeks, the Seahawks are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 33.4 ppg, trailing only New England, and they have scored 21 or more points in seven straight games after doing so only twice in their first seven games. The offense might have an edge again as the 49ers defense was on the field for 94 plays against New England. While San Francisco's defense gets most of the pub, Seattle is ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense so the unit is just a solid and is that much better at home. The Seahawks fall into a great situation where we play on home teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Bet Type: SPREAD
Fargo's 10* NFL SUNDAY ENFORCER (AWESOME 21-10-1)
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys Dec 23 2012 1:00PM
I lost playing against Dallas last week but I will again fade the Cowboys here. They were fortunate to get out of last week with a win in overtime as they got a gift wrapped interception from Ben Roethlisberger and converted that into the game winning field goal. Dallas is now tied with the Giants and Redskins for first place in the NFC East so this is no doubt a must win situation and as we all know, must wins situations do not always translate into wins with the pressure involved. We did win on New Orleans last week as the Saints shook off two poor performances, or should say Drew Brees shook off two poor performances, and easily defeated the Buccaneers. Obviously the playoffs are a very slim option for the Saints and we saw what happened when they were able to play loose. New Orleans has won the yardage battle in each of the last three games and closing the season with a big finish is a big goal right now. But the playoffs are still a slight possibility so winning is still top priority. New Orleans needs a lot of help to get it but it really isn't very complicated. The Saints need to win this week and against Carolina next week. On top of that the Saints need Dallas to lose its final game, the Rams to lose at least once, and the Vikings, Giants, and Bears all to lose their final two games. Sure it is not very likely but with a chance still there, we will be getting a big performance out of the entire team. This includes both offense and defense, the latter showing a ton of improvement. The Saints have now gone four straight games without allowing 400 yards on defense after allowing over 400 yards in each of their first 10 games. The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last seven and five of their last nine games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a three-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season. December has let them down before and I see it happening again. New Orleans is +10 points in scoring margin and could easily be 8-6, whereas Dallas is -11 points in scoring margin and is pretty fortunate to be where it is right now. Play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams allowing a 61 percent or higher completion percentage while Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games in that same dynamic. 10* (115) New Orleans Saints
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Bet Type: SPREAD
Fargo's 10* NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR (HUGE 21-10-1)
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens Dec 23 2012 4:25PM
This is a big game for both sides but more so for the Giants. New York is coming off that blowout loss in Atlanta so it needs to right the ship right now if it wants to have any chance of defending its Super Bowl title. The Giants are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFL East and a five-way tie for the second and final NFC Wild Card spot. Baltimore comes in with the better record but the Giants are the better team and in a good spot to bounce back. It can be argued that the Ravens are also in a great spot to bounce back following their third straight loss last week against the Broncos. I disagree with that though as this is a very fragile team right now that has actually gotten away with a lot of fortunate breaks. Wins over Kansas City, Dallas and San Diego all could have gone the other way so going 3-0 right there is lucky. The Ravens have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and that is finally starting to come back to haunt them. This is an interesting scenario where we could catch a break based on one of the early games. Should the Steelers defeat Cincinnati at home at 1:00, Baltimore locks up the division and with no chance at a first round bye, it would not be surprising to see the Ravens sit some players for at least part of this game. Obviously we can not make this play based on hoping another team wins but that could only add to the strength. Play it early as the line will likely go up quite a bit if the Steelers are winning comfortably. After starting the season strong, Baltimore has slipped considerably. It is ranked 21st in total offense and 26th in total defense and while the scoring rankings are considerably higher, it is starting to come back more into line. The Giants have been hit or miss for the last few games but with the exception of last week, the offense has been more consistent as they are 10th overall and sixth in scoring. They have not been held to single-digits in scoring since 2009 and have not been shutout since the 2005 playoffs. That being said, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while Baltimore is now 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after one or more consecutive losses. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 360 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being close to a touchdown per game. 10* (121) New York Giants
Prediction: New York Giants
Bet Type: SPREAD
Hollywood Sports' 25* NFL *A-LIST* SPECIAL
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens Dec 23 2012 4:25PM
At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (121) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (122). Head coach Tom Coughlin may have claimed that his Giants team (8-6) needed to win the rest of their games -- starting last week in Atlanta -- to maintain their playoff hopes. We were not buying it last week even though their ugly 34-0 loss to the Falcons now has them tied with Washington and Dallas for first place in the NFC East (although they would lose the tie-breaker to the Redskins given their better divisional rival). Now the Giants really have their backs against the wall -- and we look for one of their best efforts of the season in this one (after expecting the Falcons to avenge their loss to the Giants in the playoffs last year). New York has been very reliable under Coughlin in bounce-back situations like this. The Giants have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss. New York has also bounced-back to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. And in their last 5 games after failing to score more than two touchdowns in their last game, New York has then covered the spread in 4 of these games. This team will benefit of getting their top running back Ahmad Bradshaw back as he is listed as probable after missing last week. We are more comfortable with rookie running back David Wilson serving as a counter to the more established Bradshaw. Additionally, the Giants are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, while the New York defense is allowing 417.0 total YPG on their last three games, they are supported by a road warrior angle that has been 82% effective over the last ten seasons. Road teams listed in the +/- 3-point range who allowed at least 360 total YPG (Baltimore defense: 374.2 total YPG) but who are allowing more than 400 total YPG over their last three games have then covered the point spread in 27 of the last 33 situations where these conditions applied.
Baltimore (9-5) is reeling with three straight losses after their 34-17 loss to Denver last week. This is a team with significant issues on both sides of the ball. Injuries have decimated the defensive side of the ball. On offense, conflicts between former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and quarterback Joe Flacco led to the decision to let Cameron go last week in lieu of Jim Caldwell who has not called offensive plays in years. The biggest criticism Cameron received was too often abandoning Ray Rice and the Ravens' rushing attack for Flacco and the Baltimore passing attack. But Rice only ran the ball twelve times last week for 38 yards. It looks like the move to Caldwell will result in Flacco getting the opportunity to incorporate even more no-huddle formations like Caldwell oversaw in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning. Flacco is no Peyton Manning -- and after gaining only 278 yards of offense last week against Manning's new team in Denver, this offense does not look like it has worked out their problems. We look for Baltimore to continue their slide as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Ravens have now also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games played in the month of December. Additionally, this is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, Baltimore is just 0-3-1 ATS. Together, these team trends produce our specific 48-10-3 ATS combined angle for this situation. Lastly, the Ravens fall into an empirical "play-against" angle that has been 69% effective over the last five seasons. Home teams that average 335-370 YPG (Baltimore: 339.6 total YPG) now facing a team that allows at least 370 total YPG (Giants' defense: 377.4 total YPG) have then failed to cover the point spread in 42 of the last 59 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL A-List Special with the New York Giants (121) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (122). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
Prediction: New York Giants
Bet Type: SPREAD
Larry's NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider (9-4-1 run)
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals Dec 23 2012 4:25PM
My 8* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET.
Chicago fans are seeing ‘double.’ The team was 7-3 last season through 10 games but Cutler went down for the season and they lost five straight games to fall out of playoff contention, before winning a meaningless Week 17 game. Fast forward to 2012 and Chicago was 7-1 when it hosted Houston in a SNF game in Week 10. The Bears lost that game (Cutler was KO’d) and lost again the following Monday night at San Francisco, when Cutler sat out. However, he returned in a 28-10 win over Minnesota and at 8-3, the Bears seemed OK. That wasn’t the case, as they’ve now lost THREE in a row (FIVE of six since that 7-1 start) and they now no longer even control their own playoff fate. The Bears will have to win at Arizona Sunday and at Detroit in Week 17, then “get some help.” The Bears catch the Cards off a 38-10 win over the Lions last Sunday, one which ended Arizona's nine-game losing streak, after the team had opened the 2012 season at 4-0. The score would seem to indicate that the Cards played well but that was NOT the case. Arizona was able to score 38 points while gaining a modest 12 FDs, going a pathetic 2-of-12 on third downs and gaining a total of only 196 yards. The team benefitted from two INTs returned for TDs, the second being for 102 yards in the fourth quarter. Arizona then held Chicago on downs deep in its own territory the very next possession and Beanie wells broke off a 31-yard TD run to cap the scoring. Wells was playing in just his seventh game this season, gaining 67 yards while scoring three times (had just 164 yards rushing in his other six games). Lindley was back at QB and he was terrible again, completing 11-of-24 for 104 yards without a TD and with one INT. He’s completing 51.1% on the season with no TDs and six INTs for a 45.0 QB rating. Granted, the Bears D is NOT the same unit it was the first half of the season but it’s plenty good enough to keep in check an Arizona offense which had averaged just 10.6 PPG in its nine-game slide. Chicago has 37 takeaways (most in the NFL) and its plus-14 ratio ranks No. 1 in the NFC. Arizona actually has done a good job forcing turnovers (has 32) but with 29 giveaways, is just plus-three in TO margin. Simply put, the Bears own the better quarterback by far in Jay Cutler, easily the best RB in Matt Forte and while Fitzgerald is a great receiver, he can’t throw it to himself. In Brandon Marshall, the Bears have a WR with 107 catches, 10 TDs and 1,398 receiving yards (only Calvin Johnson has more).The Bears can still finish 10-6 and if so, may just sneak into the postseason. Catching Arizona off its ‘phony’ 38-10 win last Sunday, gives Chicago the perfect opportunity to roll over a helpless opponent.
Good luck...Larry
Prediction: Chicago Bears
Bet Type: SPREAD
Hollywood Sports 25* SATURDAY NITE SPECIAL FEATURE
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions Dec 22 2012 8:30PM
At 8:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (102) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (101). Atlanta (12-2) were confronted with their most important game of the season last Sunday facing a Giants team that embarrassed them in the playoffs last year by a 24-2 score on the heels of playing perhaps their worst game of the season in a rough loss at Carolina. The Falcons responded with the best game they have probably played in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era by blowing out the defending Super Bowl champions by a 34-0 score to avenge that playoff loss and make their biggest statement of the season that they are legitimate contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. We had Atlanta in a big game for us last week -- and their dominant win sets up a "play-against" situation here in a classic letdown angle after such an emotional win at home. As it is, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after holding their last opponent to two touchdowns or less. Lets remember that this Atlanta team has enjoyed a plum schedule where they have defeated only two teams that still have legitimate shots to make the playoffs -- and that includes this Giants' team that is technically on the outside looking in right now. Furthermore, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Atlanta falls into a late season "play-against" angle that has been 68% effective since 1983. After eight games into the season, road favorites who average at least 370 YPG (Atlanta: 377.4 total YPG) now facing a team that allows 335-370 YPG (Detroit defense: 337.0 total YPG) have then failed to cover the point spread in 63 of the last 93 situations where these conditions applied.
Detroit (4-10) may provide the perfect foil for this Falcons team as they clearly have the talent to pull the upset on their home turf. The Lions may have lost six in a row -- but four of these games have been by seven points or less with the last two games being on the road. In all, Detroit has lost eight of their ten games by eight points or less while suffering a five net close losses overall this year. Granted, head coach Jim Schwartz sounds like a clown when he mentions all their close games because clearly this is a team that continually finds ways to lose games. In their humiliating 38-10 loss at an Arizona team that lost by 58 points the week before, the Lions allowed two interception returns for touchdowns -- including one that was for 102 yards. Typically, Detroit won the first down battle by an 18-12 margin while also outgunning the Cardinals by a 312-196 margin. But the Lions remain a team that is 2nd in the NFL by averaging 406.5 total YPG while 12th in the league by holding teams to 337.5 total YPG. In fact, their +69.0 net YPG margin swamps the Falcons' +23.0 net YPG figure. Now given the opportunity to take more than a field goal against a team facing a letdown, the Lions provide nice value in this one. After a season of frustration and underachievement, they may very well play one of their best games of the season on national television and play spoiler against a team still jockeying for home field advantage for the NFC playoffs. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing failing to score more than two touchdowns in their last contest. Furthermore, the underdog in this series has covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Together, these team trends produce our specific 26-4 ATS combined angle for this situation. Lastly, the Lions are supported by a historical late season bounce-back angle for home underdogs that has been 68% effective since 1983. In games played in the month of December, home underdogs (or pick 'ems) looking to rebound from a loss by at least two touchdowns on the road have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 75 of the last 110 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Saturday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (102) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (101). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Bet Type: SPREAD
Hollywood Sports' 25* UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR!
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys Dec 23 2012 1:00PM
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (115) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (116). New Orleans (6-8) appeared liberated with finally have "bounty-gate" behind them last week as they came out and crushed their NFC South rival Tampa Bay by a 41-0 score. While the Saints' playoff hopes are slimmer than slim, we still see this is a team that is looking to build momentum for next season after enduring their last year. Said quarterback Drew Brees: "I guess we are all but eliminated, we still have a lot to play for to because of the type of guys we have and the way we want to finish this season and our mindset towards building the foundation right now for what we're going to able to accomplish in the future." Brees grew up in Austin, Texas -- and he has been outstanding in his two appearances in Dallas. Brees has passed for 736 yards while tossing six touchdown passes while throwing only one interception in earning two wins in Dallas. Now with the defense feeling much better about themselves after pitching the shutout last week, we look for the Saints to build off their momentum and play spoiler against a Dallas team still fighting to make the playoffs. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games following a victory. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints held the Buccaneers to only 67 rushing yards in that contest last week -- and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 90 rushing yards. Furthermore, New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the month of December. And in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record, the Saints have covered 11 of these games. Additionally, while New Orleans allows 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL), road underdogs (or pick 'ems) who give up at least 27 points have then covered the point spread in 76 of the last 125 situations (61%) where these conditions applied over the last five seasons.
Dallas (8-6) has won three straight -- and five out of six games -- after their 27-24 overtime win versus Pittsburgh. But despite Jerry Jones declaring his team is in the midst of a Giants-like late season run that makes them serious Super Bowl competitors, we see their bubble being burst pretty quickly. Their five wins over this span have been against a reeling Philadelphia team twice, Cleveland, a Cincinnati team that continues to struggle against teams with a winning record and the injury-riddled Steelers team. Furthermore, the Cowboys are surviving close games as in their last three victories they trailed in the 4th quarter while winning all three games by five points or less. Eeking out these close games is just not sustainable -- and with the pressure of playoff implications hovering over this team that perpetually underachieves, we look for them to succumb to the anxiety of the moment. Despite their recent good fortune, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games following a victory. The Cowboys did game 415 yards against the Steelers defense last week -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in the second to last week of the year. And in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record, the Cowboys have underachieved and failed to cover the spread. Together, these team trends produce our specific 82-21 ATS combined angle for this situation. Lastly, Dallas falls into an empirical "play-against" angle that has been 71% effective over the last five seasons. Home teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range now facing a team with a losing record have then failed to cover the point spread in 46 of the last 65 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Road Underdog of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (115) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (116). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Bet Type: SPREAD
Fargo's NFL 3-GAME ACTION PACK (SWEET 21-10-1 RUN)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Dec 23 2012 8:30PM
Seattle has gone over the total in four straight games and that was highlighted by the last two weeks where the offense scored 58 and 50 points. That was the first time since 1950 that a team scored 50 or more points in consecutive games and you can pretty much guarantee that it will not be happening again. The Seahawks had scored more than 30 points only once in their first 12 games so we are looking at an aberration. Facing a 49ers defense will only make it more of a challenge. San Francisco got into a shootout last week at New England as it nearly blew a 31-3 lead before prevailing in the end. It was the second straight game the 49ers went over the total and the fifth time in six games as well. Like Seattle, the offense has made significant progress in recent weeks but that does not mean it continues in this situation. The 49ers have been potent on the road as well but now they will be facing their toughest test in one of the toughest environments in the league. The 49ers are ranked second in total defense and first in scoring defense while the Seahawks are ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense. Both offenses will have a hard time against those units and we saw it in the first meeting this season as only 19 total points were scored. Seattle has notoriously struggled against the 49ers defense and it has averaged just 245 ypg over the last three meetings. It should do better here at home but don't expect another outburst from the offense. With the division still up for grabs and this being the second to last regular season game, the defenses will be the spotlight as there will not be many chances being taken by each offense. That means rushing comes to the forefront and both teams are good at it. San Francisco is second in the NFL in both rushing offense and rushing ypc average while Seattle is ranked third and fifth respectively in those categories. Expect a lot of pounding the ball as each team will look to seize the line of scrimmage. The first meeting had a closing total of 37.5 and while it is a small increase this time around, any sort of increase provides value as the recent offensive outputs are helping drive this total up. Both teams fall into a great league-wide totals situation where we play on the under with a total between 35.5 and 42 in the second half of the season involving teams that turn the ball over 1.25 times per game or less. This situation is 26-4 to the under (86.7 percent) since 1983. 9* Under (129) San Francisco 49ers/(130) Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: under
Bet Type: TOTAL
Larry's 10* NFL Game of the Year (the 'Big One!')
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Dec 23 2012 1:00PM
My 10* NFL Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.
Pittsburgh had started 6-2 or better in each of coach Mike Tomlin's first five seasons with the Steelers but this year’s team stumbled to a 2-3 beginning, before ripping off four straight wins to reach 6-3. The final win in that four-game winnings streak came 16-13 (OT) in a Monday night game vs the Chiefs in Week 10. Big Ben was KO’d from that game and missed the next three, losses at home to Baltimore and at Cleveland plus a win at Baltimore. Roethlisberger returned in Week 14 but the Steelers were shocked at home by the “free-falling” Chargers, who somehow beat the Steelers 34-24 (SD led 27-3 in the 3Q). Then last Sunday, the Steelers let a 4th-quarter lead slip away in Dallas, losing 27-24 in OT, as Pittsburgh fell to 7-7. Despite all its struggles in 2012, the Steelers still find themselves in control of their own destiny. They will host the 8-6 Bengals on Sunday and with a win, will move into a tie with Cincy at 8-7, for the final AFC wild card spot. However, Pittsburgh would own two wins over the Bengals this season, giving them them the all-important tie-breaker. Pittsburgh would clinch that final AFC wild card berth by beating the Browns at home in Week 17 or with a Cincy loss in Week 17 at home to the Ravens. The Bengals joined the Steelers and Ravens last year as the third AFC North team to qualify for the playoffs, led by a pair of rookies, QB Andy Dalton and receiver AJ Green (both Pro Bowlers). However, backing up a playoff season with another one the following year has not been a Cincinnati trait. The Bengals ended a long playoff drought in 2005 by winning the AFC North but then followed with 8-8, 7-9 and 4-11-1 years. The team won the AFC North again in 2009 but fell to 4-12 in 2010. Then came last year’s wild card appearance. A closer look at the Cincy's 9-7 finish last year reveals the Bengals went just 1-6 against opponents that finished .500 or better and then fell to 1-7 with a 31-10 loss to Houston in the wild card round. It’s been déjà vu all over again this season. Just TWO on the Bengals’ eight wins have come vs winning teams (the Redskins and Giants both check in at 8-6), while the other six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 38-80 (.322). Dalton’s had two pretty good seasons to start his career but do you really want him over Big Ben (two Super Bowl titles) in a game like this? How can one ignore that against Cincy’s two biggest rivals, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, Dalton is 0-6 with a 64.1 passer rating. Now Cincy’s troubles with Pittsburgh go back LONG before Dalton arrived, as after winning 24-17 in Week 7 at Cincinnati, the Steelers have now won 20 of their last 26 meetings with the Bengals. Pittsburgh brings the NFLs top defense in terms of yards allowed to this game (273.3 YPG) and sure has to be confident after outgaining the Bengals 431-to-185 in yards in that Week 7 win. This is an example of Pittsburgh doing what’s it’s done for years (winning big games) and Cincy doing what it’s traditionally done, lose important games at the most inopportune time.
Good luck...Larry
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
Bet Type: SPREAD
SCOTT SPREITZER'S BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT! 46-27 Run!!
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens Dec 23 2012 4:25PM
I'm backing the NY Giants on Sunday afternoon. Horrible weekend last week for both teams, especially the defending Super Champion Giants who lost 34-0 to Atlanta. But NFL teams off a loss by at least 30 points are 153-114, 57% winners the next week, including last week's easy win and cover by Arizona, the week after losing 58-0 to Seattle. Baltimore has dropped 3 straight after a 9-2 start. The defense is old and wearing thin, while the offense has hit the skids, confused whether they're a hurry-up, high tempo attack or not. In fact, they're so confused that they fired their offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. The Ravens have scored an average of just 18.8 ppg in their last five games, while the defense will be "just what the doctor ordered" for Eli Manning to get back on track. Baltimore ranks 26th in total yards allowed and yards rushing allowed and they're 22nd against the pass. New York has lost two in a row SU just one time this season. They have scored 41, 41, 38, and 52 off their other four losses. I expect this one to get ugly...for Baltimore. New York is on a long term 38-18-1 ATS run in their last 57 road games and they're on a 10-3-1 ATS run against teams with a winning SU record. The Ravens are on a 1-5 ATS slide at home. I'm backing the NY Giants to bounce back in winning fashion on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Prediction: New York Giants
Bet Type: SPREAD -
Colin Cowherd Blazin 5
Giants -2.5
'Skins -6.5
Browns +13
Seahawks +1
Cowboys -2.5Comment
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XpertPicks
• Play Cincinnati +4 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games and they
have also covered the spread in 6 consecutive games after scoring 30
points or more in their last game. Cincinnati has covered the spread
in 7 consecutive games coming off a win against the spread in their
last game and they are averaging over 26 points a game on offense in
road games this season.
• Play New Orleans +3 over Dallas (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 1:00 PM EST
New Orleans has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 games after
allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game and they have
also covered the spread in 10 of the last 12 games coming off a home
win. New Orleans has covered the spread in 12 of the last 15 games
when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they are averaging over
27 points a game on offense this season.
• Play Baltimore +2.5 over New York Giants (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 4:30 PM EST
Baltimore has won 21 of the last 24 home games and they have also won
18 of the last 25 games coming off an OVER the total. Baltimore has
won 8 of the last 10 games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in
their last game and they have also won 4 consecutive games when
playing in the last two weeks of the regular season.
• Play Seattle +1 over San Francisco (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:30 PM EST
Seattle has covered the spread in 7 consecutive games when playing in
the month of December and they have also covered the spread in 15 of
the last 20 games as an underdog. Seattle has covered the spread in 6
consecutive home games and they are only allowing an average of 11
points a game on defense at home this season.Comment
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Bio sports picks nfl / sunday 45-28 on season
Saints +1 vs. Dallas
Saints/Dallas OVER 51
Giants -1 vs. BaltimoreComment
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TEDDY COVERS
10* Sunday Night
Seattle Seahawks
10* NFL
Dallas Cowboys Over
10* NFL
Chicago BearsComment
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POINTWISE PHONES:
3* Giants, Carolina, St Louis, Denver
2* Seattle, Miami, NO, Detroit(Sat)Comment
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Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc
Week 16
( Hot Game To Bet: Philadelphia +6 )
Detroit +3.5 - 5% Of Bankroll
Tennessee +12.5 - 5% Of Bankroll
Buffalo +4 - 5% Of Bankroll
Jacksonville +14.5 - 5% Of Bankroll
New Orleans +1 - 5% Of Bankroll
Tampa Bay -3 - 5% Of Bankroll
Chicago -5 - 5% Of Bankroll
Oakland +9.5 - 5% Of Bankroll
Pittsburgh -3.5 - 5% Of Bankroll
Kansas City +7 - 5% Of Bankroll
Philadelphia +6 - 5% Of Bankroll
Houston -9.5 - 5% Of Bankroll
Cleveland +13.5 - 5% Of Bankroll
Baltimore +1 - 5% Of Bankroll
WEEK 15 ( 6-5 )
WEEK 14 ( 7-4 )
WEEK 13 ( 6-3-1 )
WEEK 12 ( 5-3-2 )
WEEK 11 ( 5-4 )
WEEK 10 ( 7-3 )
WEEK 9 ( 2-4 )
WEEK 8 ( 8-1 )
WEEK 7 ( 4-4 )
WEEK 6 ( 4-0 )
WEEK 5 ( 3-5 )
WEEK 4 ( 5-2 )
WEEK 3 ( 3-3 )
Grand Total ( 65 - 41 - 3 )Comment
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Joe Gavazzi
NFL WINNER…..Buffalo at Miami (-4) 1:00 ET
4* Buffalo +4
The Bills fell victim to a -3 in the turnover column in their 50-17 loss to Seattle last week north of the border. They were outrushed by the super surging Seahawks, 32/270 to 21/118. Let’s not over react, however, to Miami’s 24-3 win. It was against JVille, the worst offensive team in the league. That record only raised Miami’s record on this field to 7-20 ATS as home chalk. In an earlier 19-14 loss in Buffalo, Miami could gain just 184 yards. The underdog Bills clearly have a chance at this victory.
Washington (-6) at Philadelphia 1:00 ET
4* Washington -6
Only the Lone Ranger would be on the Eagles in this one. The first meeting against the Skins saw them lose 31-6 being outgained 361-257. Last Thursday, they dropped a 34-13 home field decision to the Bengals. It dropped their record to 0-7 ATS at this site for the season. In that contest, the Eagles committed 5 turnovers and were outrushed 41/157 to 18/42. Behind QB Cousins, the Washington offense barely missed a beat in the 38-21 victory at Cleveland. They outrushed the Browns 35/122 to 15/58 putting up a total of 430 yards. It was their 5th consecutive win and cover. Now with RG3 returning to the controls, they are locked in a Division battle with NYG and Big D. But with need comes pressure and an inflated line, a scenario that this Redskin team is certainly not familiar with. Eagles were a 3 point dog the first meeting. Some quick math will show you how much value you have lost (9 points).Comment
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NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 16
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 16's action.
Atlanta at Detroit (3.5, 50.5)
Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as they recorded a dominating 34-0 home win over the New York Giants last week. Atlanta ran more than it passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries while attempting just 28 passes. Detroit is looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions last Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall.
Tennessee at Green Bay (-12.5, 46)
The Packers clinched the NFC North with last week's 21-13 win at Chicago and must win their final two games and get help in order to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the first-round bye. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson sat out again last week with a bad hamstring and is questionable Sunday. Tennessee is coming off a 14-10 victory over the New York Jets on Monday that ended a three-game losing streak. Since a Week 10 loss to Chicago, the Titans rank third in total defense (285.8 yards per game), and fourth giving up 17.6 points per game. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
Oakland at Carolina (-9.5, 46)
The Panthers, who are just 2-5 at home, are attempting to end the campaign on a high note as they seek their third consecutive victory. Quarterback Cam Newton has been outstanding over the last four weeks. The Auburn product leads the league with a 113.1 passer rating in that span with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Raiders snapped a six-game slide last Sunday with a 15-0 triumph over Kansas City in their home finale. Sunday's shutout against the Chiefs was the team's first blanking since 2002. Sebastian Janikowski provided all the offense, kicking a season-high five field goals. Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.
Buffalo at Miami (-4.5, 41.5)
The Dolphins are still in playoff contention after last week’s 24-3 win over Jacksonville, but will need a ton of help in order to play January football. Running back Reggie Bush racked up 104 yards on the ground in the victory– his first 100-yard effort since Week 2. The Bills will finish with a losing record for an eighth consecutive season after last Sunday’s 50-17 rout by Seattle. Buffalo, which yielded a season-low 184 yards in a 19-14 win over the Dolphins on Nov. 15, has become the eighth NFL team - and first since the 1986 Jets - to allow 45 points four times in one season. Miami has won three of four at home over Buffalo and is 4-1 ATS in its last five December games.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3.5, 42.5)
The Bengals will try to keep their division title hopes alive - while eliminating the host Steelers from the playoff race entirely. A Cincinnati win Sunday would clinch a playoff spot while knocking the Steelers out of contention. The Bengals, who are winners of five of six after thumping Philadelphia 34-13 on Dec. 13, are well rested but have lost their past five against Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is allowing just 12.5 points per game over its last six – the best in the NFL in that stretch - while forcing 15 turnovers. The Steelers have numerous injuries to their secondary and will be without cornerback Ike Taylor (ankle) for a third straight game. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last nine versus AFC North foes.
New England at Jacksonville (14.5, 50)
New England rallied from a 31-3 deficit a week ago to tie San Francisco but ultimately suffered a 41-34 setback to snap its seven-game winning streak. However, the Patriots racked up 407 yards of offense in the second half against the stout defense of the 49ers. Tight end Rob Gronkowski (forearm) has officially been ruled out again this week. The Jaguars have lost three straight, failing to cover in all three contests. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is back practicing, but is a long shot to play Sunday.
Indianapolis at Kansas City (7, 41.5)
Indianapolis has won seven of nine but missed out on a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a 29-17 loss to the Texans last week. Quarterback Andrew Luck has completed only 46.1 percent of his passes in three games this month and has been intercepted nine times in his last five contests. The Chiefs gained a season-low 119 yards and recorded only seven first downs in a 15-0 loss at Oakland last week. Starting quarterback Brady Quinn is dealing with a rib injury but coach Romeo Crennel said Thursday he expects him to suit up against the Colts. Kansas City has recorded fewer than 10 points in four of its last five games. Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.
New Orleans at Dallas (-1, 51.5)
The Cowboys are still on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, but their chances improved dramatically after topping Pittsburgh in overtime last Sunday for their fifth win in six games. Cornerback Morris Claiborne expects to play Sunday after missing last week's victory over Pittsburgh with a concussion. Running back DeMarco Murray is also probable despite missing practice on Wednesday. Dallas is 3-0 since Murray returned from a foot injury that shelved him for six contests. The Saints posted a 41-0 home triumph over the Bucs last Sunday. Despite the shutout, New Orleans' defense still ranks last in the league as it has allowed an average of 446.2 yards per contest. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Washington at Philadelphia (6, 45.5)
Washington is tied with Dallas and New York for the NFC East lead but owns the tiebreaker over both teams. Backup quarterback Kirk Cousins led the Redskins to their fifth straight win - a 38-21 victory over the Browns last week in the absence of Robert Griffin III. Griffin (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday and is expected to start against the Eagles. Philadelphia fell 34-13 to Cincinnati in its last effort, committing a season-high five turnovers in the process. Running back LeSean McCoy (concussion) was carted off in the final minutes of a 31-6 loss to the Skins on Nov. 18, but is expected to suit up Sunday. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3, 44)
St. Louis saw its playoff chances all but snuffed out with last week's 36-22 home loss to Minnesota that snapped a three-game winning streak. The Rams, who had allowed only 42 points during its three-game winning streak, recorded a pair of sacks last week to add to their NFC-leading total of 41. Tampa Bay was once in the driver's seat for a playoff slot but has tumbled out of contention in the wake of a four-game losing streak, including a 41-0 mauling at New Orleans a week ago. The Bucs defense has been sturdy against the run but awful against the pass, ranking last in the league with 310.6 yards allowed per game. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
Minnesota at Houston (-9.5, 45)
Vikings running back Adrian Peterson trampled the Rams for 210 yards and a score in last week's 36-22 victory, a result that kept Minnesota's playoff hopes alive. The Vikings will be in tough against a Texans team that owns the AFC's top seed and is coming off a 29-17 win over Indianapolis. Peterson has amassed 1,313 rushing yards in the last eight weeks - equaling Arian Foster's output for the entire season. Peterson is in the midst of the most incredible stretch of games by any running back in the history of football. A year removed from major knee surgery, the 27-year-old is just 294 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105 set in 1985. The Texans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.
San Diego at N.Y. Jets (-1, 39)
New York's fleeting postseason hopes were dashed with another wretched offensive performance in Monday's 14-10 loss at Tennessee - a defeat that finally prompted coach Rex Ryan to pull the plug on Mark Sanchez and elevated third-stringer Greg McElroy to starting quarterback. San Diego flat-lined in a 31-7 home loss to Carolina and will miss the postseason for a third straight year. Adding to the misery were season-ending injuries to leading rusher Ryan Mathews (collarbone) and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (ankle). The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Cleveland at Denver (-13.5, 44.5)
Denver can move closer to earning a first-round bye in the playoffs by extending its winning streak to 10 with a victory over Cleveland, which has dropped nine straight meetings. The Broncos are coming off a 34-17 victory over the Ravens in a game that Peyton Manning threw for a season-low 204 yards. The Denver defense, which ranks fourth allowing 307.1 yards per game, held Baltimore to 56 rushing yards and scored on a pick-six. The Browns’ .217 all-time winning percentage against the Broncos is their lowest against any NFL team. But Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
Chicago at Arizona (5.5, 36.5)
The Bears' prolonged slump has left them likely needing victories in back-to-back road games with help in order to reach the playoffs. A 21-13 loss to Green Bay last Sunday dropped the Bears behind the competition in the race for the conference’s two wild-card spots. The defeat was also Chicago’s seventh in a row in the month of December. The Bears are averaging 14.2 points over their last six games after producing 29.5 per contest in their first eight. More pressure will be placed on running back Matt Forte this week after backup Michael Bush (ribs) was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The Arizona defense leads the league with 22 interceptions, including snagging three picks in last week’s 38-10 win over Detroit. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five December games.
N.Y. Giants at Baltimore (1, 47)
Baltimore will try to avoid its first four-game slide in five seasons when they host the Giants. Running back Ray Rice was held to just 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Broncos and now faces a New York stop unit allowing 123.7 rushing yards per game. The Giants were shutout for the first time in seven years in Sunday’s loss to the Falcons, but could be getting some key starters back after running back Ahmad Bradshaw (knee), cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and safety Kenny Phillips (knee) all sat out against the Falcons. All three have returned to practice in some fashion this week. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games.
San Francisco at Seattle (Pick, 39)
San Francisco’s top-ranked scoring defense could be in for a major test Sunday night against the suddenly high-scoring Seattle offense. There’s plenty at stake as the Seahawks can clinch their second playoff berth in three seasons and the 49ers are one win shy of securing their second consecutive NFC West title. After setting a team record for points in a 58-0 win over Arizona on Dec. 9, the Seahawks became the first team in 62 years to score at least 50 points in consecutive weeks with their rout of Buffalo last week. San Francisco has won four straight in this divisional matchup following a 13-6 victory on Oct. 18, but Seattle is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. The Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in their last five versus a team with a winning record.Comment
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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 16
by Jason Logan
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are three of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 16:
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 51)
Saints’ quick-strike offense vs. Cowboys’ time of possession
With a defense that rivals Swiss cheese in terms of holes, the Saints rely on out-gunning their opponent on offense. New Orleans hung 41 points on Tampa Bay last week and rank fourth in the NFL in scoring (27.8). That quick-hitting approach has New Orleans sitting among the bottom of the league in time of possession, holding on to the ball for an average of just 28:17 – 27th in the NFL.
The Cowboys are a different team with RB DeMarco Murray in the backfield. Dallas has won three in a row since its top rusher returned from a foot injury, hogging the ball for an average of 32:24 during that stretch - fifth best in the NFL. Murray is getting stronger with every carry and is in line for a huge day versus a Saints defense that has been gashed for big yardage on the ground. The Cowboys’ best shot at beating the New Orleans is to lean on Murray and keep Drew Brees and Co. off the field.
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-9.5, 43.5)
Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson vs. Texans’ sliding rushing defense
The game plan for Minnesota is simple: Give the ball to Peterson and get out of the way. Stopping that game plan is much harder. Peterson is in pursuit of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record and will no doubt get the lion’s share of the play calls Sunday. It’s no secret but Peterson is flirting with that Barry Sanders level of play. Defenses know it’s coming but can’t do anything to stop it.
Houston was once the most feared run stuffers in the league but has softened on defense in recent weeks. The Texans allowed Indianapolis to march for 124 yards last week, watched the Patriots rumble for 130 yards the game before that, and surrendered 106 yards to the Lions on Thanksgiving. Injuries to key players, like LB Brian Cushing, have left gaps in the run stop and opposing backs have been able to find the edge and explode for big gains. The last time “All Day” took on Houston, he rushed for 139 yards and a score back in Nov. 2008.Comment
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Accuscore
Analyst’s Top Week 16 NFL Picks
San Diego Chargers +127 at New York Jets
AccuScore projects the Chargers as basically 50/50 this weekend going up against the Jets and new starting quarterback Greg McElroy. San Diego wins 50.7 percent of simulations outright, but the +127 money line translates to just a 44 percent implied probability. This line is probably a result of people expected the Jets to get a big emotional boost from finally benching Mark Sanchez. That might be possible, but McElroy isn’t exactly an exciting young QB prospect, and the Jets still aren’t a very good offensive team otherwise having scored 38 total points over the last 3 weeks. This is a pretty good value spot.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Over 39 Points
Simulations project an average of 43 total points in this game. I think this total is relatively low because these are two of the best defenses in the NFL in a rivalry game with Seattle having that great homefield advantage. Seattle however has scored 108 points in the last two games while the Niners have scored 68 points the last two weeks. Both teams are putting up points in bunches, and have shown big plays can be made by both special teams and the defenses to set up scores. I think this will happen at least once on Sunday which should be enough to get to 40 total points in my opinion. The Over occurs in 60.9 percent of simulations.
St. Louis Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Rams are a surprising 5-1 ATS on the road this year while the Bucs are 3-3-1 ATS at home (compared to 6-1 ATS on the road themselves). The Bucs have lost their last four games hitting bottom last week getting shut out 41-0 to New Orleans. The Rams are not a great team by any means, but the team is playing hard under Jeff Fisher and the defense is playing pretty well ranking 9th in passing yards against and 16th in passing yards against.Comment
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Wunderdog,
Game: Washington at Philadelphia (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia +7 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The likelihood of RG3 playing here has put a bump in the line, and a bump in the support for the Skins in this game with over 80% of the public siding with Washington. It doesn't hurt things here that the Eagles looked awful on national TV last week, turning the ball over five times, losing to the Bengals by 21 points. Also feeding this line is the fact that the Redskins are looking invincible with their glamorous rookie QB (actually two awesome looking rookie QBs), and five straight wins with 31+ points scored in four of them. So how can the hapless Eagles have a chance here? Welcome to the NFL where late season home dogs, who are supposed to roll over and play dead against playoff-caliber teams, don't. Since 1989 the last two weeks of the regular season have seen the home dogs cover 57.4% of all games. When you have a home dog in this same situation, revenging a loss of 20 points or more they are 31-15-1 ATS. You can bet the Eagles remember the 31-6 thrashing they took just five weeks ago. And, the Skins remember that easy win too. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 12-4 ATS revenging a loss by 21+ points. Washington brings in a woeful 11-26 ATS mark in their last 37 games vs. a losing team.
Game: New England at Jacksonville (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Jacksonville +14.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The New England Patriots probably just played their two biggest games of the season back-to-back at home. They beat Houston badly, and almost came back from the dead vs. San Francisco, but suffered a loss in the end. A lot of energy was used up last week in that attempted comeback. They now head on the road after a big Monday Night game at home, followed by a big Sunday Night game at home, to face lowly Jacksonville. I can hardly see this team taking the field with their "A" game after those two highly-physical and emotional games. Better than two-touchdown road favorites are very rare, and certainly the line is fair if the Pats pack their "A" game. But, I don't see it happening against the 2-12 Jaguars. Jacksonville seems to play big against big teams, as they took Minnesota to overtime on the road, won at Indianapolis, had a chance late to win at Green Bay, and lost in overtime to Houston. Don't be surprised if they hang around here too. As great as the Patriots are, they are not immune to letdowns. In fact, in late season play (from week 7 on), the Pats are just 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games when facing teams at .250 or worse! This is an ugly one, but the references I just made were supposed to be ugly as well. Back ugly and take the points on Jacksonville.
Game: Indianapolis at Kansas City (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +7 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 41.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Oakland Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranked dead last in points allowed (28.7). So considering that fact, how bad was the Kansas City offensive performance last week to get shutout by them? It was so bad that the Chiefs had more penalty yards than offensive yards almost midway through the third quarter. And, their offense did not record a first down in the entire first half. What is good about the NFL is that after such a brutal debacle last week, the lines overreact. So does the public. They are behind the Colts in this one at over 85% --- the most lopsided bet of the weekend (ask the Lions how that worked out for them last week). Over the last two years, the Colts haven't exactly been doing a lot of damage on the road, including this season with Luck at the helm. Here they find themselves a TD favorite despite owning a losing road record and being out-scored by 68 points on the road this season. It is very doubtful that Kansas City plays as bad as they did a week ago, and they will likely score quite a bit. After a team gets shutout on the road, and play their next one at home, 59% of all those games go over the total if it is less than 43.5, which is the case here. The Colts are also in a Houston sandwich, having played the Texans last week, and they have them again next week. They may be thinking more of that game than the one in hand. Remember that the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a winning team. The Colts are 18-8 to the OVER in their last 26 on the road, and four of the last five meetings in Kansas City have eclipsed the total as well. Take Kansas City and play on the OVER.
Game: Buffalo at Miami (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Buffalo has been playing well over the past five weeks, but ran into a buzz saw last week against the Seattle Seahawks, a team that has simply been on a rampage, scoring 50+ points in two straight weeks. If not for that game, the Bills’ defense would actually rank in the top five in the NFL over the last month. Ryan Tannehill had a big game last week, but that was vs. Jacksonville, a team that has all of two wins this season. Things should be different this week vs. a Bills’ defense that has played well against weak competition this season. The Patriots, Niners and Seahawks have all torched this Bills defense. But outside of those games, Buffalo has held all but two teams to 21 points or less, including 14 vs. this Dolphins team five weeks ago. The Bills’ biggest enemy has been themselves, and Miami has not been turning opponents over at all. The Dolphins’ last four opponents have combined to turn the ball over just one time. The Bills were beaten badly last week, and teams usually play up to their level and beyond after a poor blowout. The Dolphins are now eliminated from the playoffs picture, and with their "Super Bowl" game next week vs. New England, I can see them mailing this one in. The Dolphins are 9-30-1 ATS in their last 40 at home vs. a team with a losing record. Take the points with Buffalo.
Game: Chicago at Arizona (Sunday 12/23 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Arizona +5.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Chicago Bears opened the season at 7-1. The offense was rather ordinary, but the defense was feeding off of turnovers at a very high rate. The wins were coming easy, but the turnovers hid a lot of warts. Those warts have now been exposed, one of which is an offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games - all losses. The five losses saw the Bears turn their opponent over just six times. Arizona has to be feeling awesome as they broke a nine-game losing streak last week with emphatic precision win over the Lions 38-10. Arizona has a winning record at home of 4-3 and are now 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home dog. If you expand things out and go back to last year, the Cardinals are 9-3 straight-up in their last 12 home games. Chicago is certainly not playing like a team that should be a mid-sized favorite here, and they haven't exactly acquitted themselves very well vs. Arizona at 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the home dog here and play on Arizona.Comment
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StatsmanSports
NFL: Cincinnati +3.5 (-110) against PittsburghComment
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SB Professor Original NFL Picks
1 PM EST
103. Tennessee Titans +13
4:05 PM EST
125. Cleveland Browns +13
Rest of Games
113. Indianapolis Colts -7
119. St. Louis Rams +3Comment
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