Tweet
-
JIMMY BOYD
-= TOP PLAY =-
NCAA-F
7:00p Syracuse vs Missouri
Take: Missouri -4-110
5* NCAAF Game of the Year on Missouri -4
I absolutely love Missouri in this spot. This is its last home game of the season, and it will be extremely motivated by the prospect of becoming bowl eligible. It knows it better take care of business here because winning at Texas A&M in Nov. 24 will be no easy task.
Syracuse is just 1-4 in games played away from home this season, and it finds itself in a major letdown spot following last week's 45-26 home win over the then-undefeated Louisville Cardinals.
The Orange are just 1-8 ATS when playing away from home the last two seasons and have lost these games by an average score of 30.1 to 21.2. They are also on a 4-18 ATS slide on the road in games where they are valued as an underdog of 7.0 points or less. They have lost by an average score of 28.1 to 16.2 in this situation.
The Tigers held on to win at Tennessee last week but gave up 585 yards and 48 points. That poor effort actually bodes well for us because it will motivate a typically good defensive team to show up this week. The Tigers rank a respectable 35th in the nation in total defense with 353.3 yards allowed per game, and they are 24-3 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. This trend is already 2-0 ATS this season as the Tigers have won by an average of 13.5 points and held the opposition to an average of 15.0 points in these two. Lay the points as the Tigers show up in a big way in front of their home fans.
NCAA-F
7:00p Tennessee vs Vanderbilt
Take: Tennessee +4-105
4* SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +4
Vandy became bowl eligible last week with a one-point win at Ole Miss so it won't have the same sense of urgency as a Tennessee team that needs to win both of its remaining games to punch its bowl ticket.
The Vols have completely owned the Commodores having won each of the last six meetings. Plus, I just don't think Vandy has enough offense to keep up with Tennessee's explosive attack. The Dores are on a 1-8 ATS slide versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards or more per play over the last 3 seasons. They have lost these games by an average score of 36.1 to 10.7.
Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, provided they are up against an opponent that has won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, are 17-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Tennessee.
NCAA-F
3:30p Ohio State vs Wisconsin
Take: Ohio State +3-113
4* Big Ten Game of the Week on Ohio State +3
The Buckeyes have won their games by an average of 16.0 points, and they have wins over Michigan State and Nebraska – teams that defeated Wisconsin. They defeated the Spartans 17-16 on the road while the Badgers lost to them 16-13 at home. The Buckeyes defeated the Cornhuskers 63-38 at home while the Badgers lost to them 30-27 on the road.
Three teams have held Wisconsin below the century mark on the ground, and each of those teams defeated the Badgers. Ohio State has a defense capable of holding down Wisconsin’s running game as well. It has held its last two opponents to an average of 53.0 rushing yards and ranks a respectable 16th in the nation against the run.
The fact Wisconsin enters off a 62-14 win at Indiana bodes well for us. That’s because the Badgers are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a win of more than 20 points and 0-5 against the number in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
The Buckeyes have won four of the past five meetings in the series both straight up and against the spread. They won last season’s meeting 33-29 as an eight-point underdog. It is also worth noting that the underdog has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 matchups.
Teams headed up by Urban Meyer are 20-3 ATS all-time when playing with two weeks of rest or more. His teams are also 17-5 ATS all-time when in the underdog role. Bet the Buckeyes.
NCAA-F
3:30p NC State vs Clemson
Take: Clemson -16½-110
3* Saturday Afternoon Delight on Clemson -16.5
The Tigers are tearing it up. They are 9-1 and have won six in a row by an average of 25.2 points. They are 8-2 against the spread on the season and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in conference play.
Clemson is unbeaten at home where it is 5-0 with a 26.2-point averaging margin of victory. NC State, meanwhile, is just 2-3 on the road this season and 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Wolfpack are on a 0-6 ATS slide when playing on the road with six days’ rest or fewer. The Wolfpack are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Clemson is the superior offensive team. It ranks sixth in the country in scoring with 42.9 points per game while NC State ranks 72nd with 26.6 points per game. The Tigers rank seventh in total offense with 513.8 yards per game while Wolfpack rank 59th with 407.8 yards per game.
The NC State defense ranks 98th in the country against the pass with 259.2 yards allowed per game. Clemson’s 12th-ranked passing attack, which averages 322.1 yards per game, should have no trouble moving the ball through the air. Quarterback Taj Boyd has completed 68.0 percent of his passes for 2,941 yards with 28 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.
The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take Clemson.
NCAA-F
8:00p Stanford vs Oregon
Take: Stanford +20½-105
3* NCAAF Saturday Night SMASH on Stanford +20.5
Stanford has been an excellent investment for quite some time now. It is 36-16-1 against the spread in its last 53 games and 16-6 against the spread since the beginning of last season. It is 16-5-1 against the number in its last 22 road games and 15-5-1 against the spread in its last 21 conference contests.
The Cardinal don’t have the same explosive offense they had with Andrew Luck at the controls, but they have remained elite because of their ferocious defense. They rank 12th in the country in scoring defense with 17.2 points allowed per game and 17th in total defense with 320.7 yards allowed per game.
If any team can slow down Oregon’s explosive running attack it’s Stanford. The Cardinal rank No. 1 in the nation against the run with 58.9 yards allowed per game. They are going to make the Ducks beat them through the air. Keep in mind Oregon is just 2-4 against the spread this season when it attempts 27 passes or more in a game.
Stanford is on a 20-8 against the spread run in road games versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points per game or more. It is also on a 12-3 against the spread run in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 450.0 yards or more per game.
It also bodes well for us that Stanford is 7-0 ATS after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 48.3 to 18.5 in these games. -
Broad Street Cappers--Saturday
Football:
Marshall -3 (12:00pm ET)
UCLA +4 (3:00pm ET)
South Florida +6.5 (3:00pm ET)
Texas Tech +10.5 (3:30pm ET)
Ohio State +2.5 (3:30pm ET)
San Jose State +4 (10:30pm ET)Comment
-
Doc Sports (No ratings posted)
Unit Play. #20/#330 Take Kansas Jayhawks +6 over Iowa State Cyclones
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm)
Unit Play. #34/#362 Take Baylor Bears +13 over Kansas State Wildcats
(Saturday, 11/17, 8 pm ESPN)
Unit Play. #38/#390 Take Missouri Tigers -5 over Syracuse Orange
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm ESPN U)
Unit Play. #54/#378 Take Michigan Wolverines over Iowa Hawkeyes
(Saturday, 11/17, 12 pm ESPN)
Note: There is no line out on this game at release time due to injuries for Michigan. We will add in the line once it is available. Whatever the line is it will still be a xx-unit play.
Unit Play. #80/#346 Take Vanderbilt Commodores -3.5 over Tennessee Volunteers
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm ESPN 2)
Unit Play. #90/#326 Take Miami (FL) Hurricanes -6.5 over South Florida Bulls
(Saturday, 11/17, 3 pm ESPN 3)
Unit Play. #98/#396 Take Under 52.5 in Ohio State Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 11/17, 3:30 pm ABC)Comment
-
Indian Cowboy
Saturday
4-Unit Play. #330. Take Kansas +5.5 over Iowa State (Saturday @ 7pm est).
4-Unit Play. #382. Take San Jose State +3 over BYU (Saturday @ 10:30pm est).
4-Unit Play. #393. Take Utah State -3 over Louisiana Tech (Saturday @ 4pm est).Comment
-
ALATEX
20 GOY MarshallComment
-
Dr Bob
3*
Oklahoma -10
Tulane +10
Utah St -3
South Alabama +9
--------------------
2*
San Jose St +3.5
Arz St -21.5
Strong Opinions
Clemson
C Michigan
Kansas StComment
-
Brian Lewis
21-12 63%
N Western +7
Ucla + 31/2
Missouri - 4 1/2Comment
-
Steele Trap
1-1 last week
10-12 for the year
Ok -11
Ucla + 3 1/2Comment
-
Accuscore
College Football Picks: 11-4 past 4 weeks…3 New Picks
Northwestern +7.5 at Michigan State
This line has moved towards the Spartans which makes me like the pick even better. I took this game on Tuesday when it was 6.5 and now there is a cushion against a push. Northwestern covers 7.5 in over 60 percent of simulations, and wins outright in nearly 42 percent of simulations. The Wildcats are 8-1 against the spread this season, and it has shown it has the ability to put points on the board. The Spartans conversely average just 16.5 points at home which includes games against Iowa and Eastern Michigan. AccuScore projects the Spartans to score 26 points which means Northwestern only needs to score 19 to cover. The Spartans have a good defense, but have shown weakness against dual-threat quarterbacks allowing 205 rushing yards to Taylor Martinez, 136 to Braxton Miller, and 96 to Denard Robinson. Kain Colter should pose a similar threat.
LSU -18.5 vs. Ole Miss
Has Zach Mettenberger figured it out? It appears that way having thrown for 571 yards and 3 touchdowns against Alabama and Mississippi State. Ole Miss is a clear step down in competition with LSU winning 90 percent of simulations and score nearly 40 points on average. The Rebels likely will have trouble putting up points against this Tiger defense particularly on the road. The development of Mettenberger makes LSU much more multiple and dangerous on offense so I like them by 20 in this spot.
Louisiana-Monroe -10 vs. North Texas
The Warhawks are 10 points favorites by the oddsmakers and by our simulations. That line is actually low because quarterback Kolton Browning is questionable for Saturday. Browning did practice on Wednesday so it is possible he could start or at least see some action. AccuScore is currently projecting a 50-50 chance Browning plays. Either way, I still like this game for the Warhawks. Back-up Cody Wells was able to throw for 357 yards and a 70% completion rate against Arkansas State last week in a loss. Arkansas State has one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt, and while Wells is not a runner like Browning he can sling it pretty well. North Texas is poor on the road allowing a 150 QB rating and 70% completion rate it its opponents. Even subtracting the games North Texas has played against LSU and Kansas State, its offense has been mediocre averaging just 22 points per game. The Warhawks are a much better team at home averaging 0.5 yards more per play.Comment
-
XpertPicks
• Play Northwestern +6.5 over Michigan State (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---40% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 12:00 PM EST
Northwestern has covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games and they
have also covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games vs. Michigan
State on the road. Northwestern has covered the spread in 7 of the
last 8 games coming off a win against the spread and they have also
covered the spread in 6 consecutive games after committing one or less
turnovers in their last game.
• Play UCLA +4 over USC (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 3:00 PM EST
UCLA has covered the spread in 16 of the last 19 home games after
scoring 42 points or more in their last game and they have also
covered the spread in 26 of the last 37 games as a home underdog.
UCLA has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 home games against the
spread when the total posted is greater than 63 points and they are
only allowing an average of 17 points a game on defense at home this
season.
• Play Wisconsin -3 over Ohio State (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 3:30 PM EST
Wisconsin has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games and they
have also won 19 of the last 20 home games. Wisconsin has on 27 of
the last 32 games as a favorite and they are only allowing an average
of 17 points a game on defense this season.
• Play Oklahoma -11 over West Virginia (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 7:00 PM EST
West Virginia has lost 7 of the last 8 games against the spread and
they have also lost 6 consecutive games against the spread after
allowing 37 points or more in their last two games. West Virginia has
lost 4 of the last 5 home games against the spread and they are
allowing an average of 41 points a game on defense this seasonComment
-
Ocal
(4) Kent State @ Bowling Green Over 47
(4) Kansas +5
(4) Hou @ Marshal Under 74.5
(5) Stan @ ORE Over 65Comment
-
Chase diamond
Saturday
300 dimes Michigan St -7
200 dimes South Alabama +9
100 dimes Colorado +21Comment
-
TEDDY C0VERS NCAA football
20* Utah
10* Kent St.
10* East Carolina/Tulane over
10* BYUComment
-
LARRY NESS
cfb las vgas insider total/yr texas st/navy over
cfb going over total smu/rice over
cfb conf goy la techComment
Comment