11-17-12

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LARRY NESS

5 game triple play

stan
rice
wisky
ucla
unlv

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THE GOLDSHEET

★★★★★★KEY RELEASES★★★★★★
NCAAF- NEBRASKA by 32 over Minnesota
NCAAF- SAN JOSE STATE by 6 over Byu
NCAAF- ARIZONA STATE by 32 over Washington State
NCAAB- SAN DIEGO ST. by 14 over Missouri St. (Sat. Day, Nov. 17)
NCAAB- TEMPLE by 28 over Rice (Saturday, November 17)
NBA- L.A. CLIPPERS by 17 over Chicago (Sat., Nov. 17)
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

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Scott Spreitzer's CFB 2012 *GAME OF THE YEAR!* (13-3 Lifetime!) - Saturday Afternoon! - The Big One!
I'm laying the points with Boise State, my CFB Game of the Year. I've released 16 GOYs in my lifetime and most of those have been high single-digit favorites or favorites in the low teens. Last season, I laid roughly 4 points with Michigan, an easy blowout win over Nebraska. But on the rare occasion when my numbers point to a potential big chalk blowout, (well over the spread) I am not shy to lay the points. First of all, CSU is a mid-November losing team going nowhere, that can't run the football and can't stop the run. The Rams are 103rd in the nation averaging 123 yards rushing per game, while allowing 203.4 yards rushing per game, which ranks 101st. They're 81st in the nation in ppg allowed. And CSU ranks 101st in scoring and total yards gained per game. They're off a 33-11 home win over UNLV. The Rebels were off one of their biggest (and rare) wins in the Bobby Hauck-era, and the score was misleading. CSU's first two TDs were scored by the defense and their third TD came off a 19-yard drive after yet another Rebel turnover. The Rams finished with just 340 yards on 67 plays. CSU has been forced to start frosh QB Conner Smith the last few games after losing their starter to injury. Smith will make his first ever appearance in Boise...not the easiest place to play, after all, BSU is 78-4 SU in their last 82 home games. The Broncos lost their most recent home game to SDSU two weeks ago. They rocked Hawaii in Honolulu last week and are excited for a chance to atone for their last home performance...in what will be senior day. The Bronco defense will be champing at the bit to face a freshman QB with little talent around him. That BSU defense ranks 10th overall, including 5th against the pass and 29th against the run and they allow just 14.4 ppg. BSU is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) against losing teams this season, allowing just 286 yards per game on 3.3 yards per play. Young Conner Smith will face a defense that held those losing teams to 56% passing, 5.64 yards per attempt, with 16 sacks, 6 INTs, and didn't allowed a single TD pass. And, oh by the way...those four losing teams ran for just 90 yards per game on 2.37 yards per carry. Seven of Boise State's last eight opponents have failed to score an offensive point in the first half! That's an awful lot for a frosh QB to deal with, especially without a running game to keep the Bronco defense honest. Meanwhile, BSU QB Joe Southwick completed 68% of his passes in those outings and the offensive line gave up just 1 sack in 114 drop-back opportunities. Now you understand why I believe a favorite of 4 TDs is going to cruise to not only a win...but a cover. CSU heads into this one on a 0-5 ATS slide off a SU win. They're 2-12 ATS against teams that connect on at least 62% of their passes. BSU is 32-11 ATS off a conference road win. They're in a 27-5 ATS situation that backs home chalk of 21 1/2 to 31 points off a double digit road win in November. Finally, Boise laid 31 at CSU last season and won 63-13. They're 3 points shorter at home in 2012 and I believe they're in for another lopsided win and cover. I had Boise as a big play in their easy 45-14 win over Wyoming last month. I'm laying the points with Boise State on Saturday. This time, they're my overall CFB GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Saturday, November 17th

7 UNIT SUPER-HYDRA
UCLA +4 vs usc (12pm)

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SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks 11/17


12 PM EST
337. Northwestern +7.5*

3:30 PM EST
364. New Mexico +10.5*

8 PM EST
362. Baylor +13* (mostly 12.5s but buy up to +13)

Rest of Games
320. Boston College +10
349. Memphis +10
328. Illinois +6
374. Tulane +10
392. Texas Tech +10
384. UNLV +1
386. Idaho +6
354. West Virginia +12
382. San Jose St. +3

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4* South Florida, UCLA

3* Kansas, Okl St, Rutgers, Syracuse, Okl

2* Rice, Marshall, Wisky

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Trace Adams


One-and-Only
2000♦
Rivalry Game of the Year


UCLA Bruins +3

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Northcoast

Early Bird - Kansas State -11.5
Underdog GOW - Central Florida +3.5
Power Play - UCLA +4
Economy Oklahoma St -10.5
Totals POW - Washington/Colorado Over 43.5
Big Dog - South Florida +7

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King Creole

3* Texas Tech / Oklahoma St Over 73

3* Arkansas / Mississippi St Over 55.5

2* South Florida / Miami Florida 57

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Brian Edwards NCAA Football
Air Force -22
Louisana Tech +3
Arkansas St. -3
Northwestern +7

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Prediction Machine CFB Totals
BYU @ SJSU under 61.3%

ARK @ MISSST over 61%

MISS @ LSU under 60.9%

SOFLA @ MIA-FL over 60.5%

TXTCH @ OKST over 58.3%

WYO @ UNLV over 57.4%

STAN @ OREGON under 57.4%

WASHST @ ARIST under 57.2%

PURDUE @ ILL under 57.2%

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DOC SPORTS
4 Unit Play. #20/#330 Take Kansas Jayhawks +6 over Iowa State Cyclones
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm)

Kansas
The Jayhawks are struggling in a major rebuilding project under new head coach Charlie Weis. After winning their first game of the season, the Jayhawks have lost nine straight games. However, this is the game that they can win. Kansas has been competitive of late in two of their last three games and nearly pulled the upset against Texas. Kansas has covered 5 of their last 7 games at Memorial Stadium.
Iowa State
I just do not believe that the Cyclones are good enough to be laying this type of wood on the road against anybody in the Big 12. Iowa State has lost 4 of their last 5 games, including back-to-back blowouts the last two weeks. Iowa State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.
Final Comment
These are two bad teams in the Big 12, and I expect this game to go down to the wire. This is the Jayhawks last home game of the season, and expect them to go all out in hopes that they can excite the fan base for next season.
Kansas by 1
4 Unit Play. #34/#362 Take Baylor Bears +13 over Kansas State Wildcats
(Saturday, 11/17, 8 pm ESPN)
Baylor
The Bears have found life without RG3 difficult as they are just 1-5 on the season, but they close the season out with three games close to home. I feel that they can win at least two of them. The home team has won 5 straight in this matchup, and the underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 games. Baylor has the offense that can threaten this strong KSU defense, as they are seventh in the country scoring over 42 points per game. Baylor is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Kansas State
The Wildcats are the No. 1-ranked team in the country, but they are not been that impressive in road games with the exception of West Virginia. They struggled to put away Iowa State, and if TCU could have done anything on offense that would have been right in the game last week. This team does most of their damage on the ground, and expect the Bears to really key on that and make the Wildcats move the football through the air.
Final Comment
K-State deserves the No. 1 ranking in the BCS, but I believe that these next two weeks will be very difficult for them to win both games. They are facing a high-powered offense in Baylor, and the Bears will score points and this game and hang around for 60 minutes.
Kansas State by 4
4 Unit Play. #38/#390 Take Missouri Tigers -5 over Syracuse Orange
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm ESPN U)
Missouri
The Tigers are coming off an exciting win last week at Tennessee, and this now becomes a must-win game for them in they have visions of making a bowl game this season. Missouri has found it difficult to compete in the SEC, but things will get much easier since they are facing a team from the Big East. Missouri has won 7 straight home finales, and expect them to shut down this Syracuse offense. Missouri is 24-3 ATS in their last 27 games after they allowed 40 or more points in their previous game.

Syracuse
The Orange are coming off their most impressive victory in a decade when they upset the undefeated Louisville Cardinals last Saturday. Now they just need one more victory in the regular season to become bowl eligible, but that will be much easier next week at Temple then it will be this weekend against Missouri. Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Final Comment
The Orange are primed for a letdown after such an emotional victory last week. Expect them to come in flat and Missouri will jump on them early and coast to a victory. The SEC is better than the Big East.
Missouri by 14
5 Unit Play. #54/#378 Take Michigan Wolverines -17 over Iowa Hawkeyes
(Saturday, 11/17, 12 pm ESPN)
Michigan
The Wolverines have played well during the Big Ten portion of the season with their only loss coming against Nebraska. Michigan earned a hard-fought overtime victory (with a little luck) last week against Northwestern, and expect them to carry that positive momentum into this week's game against Iowa. Michigan still has a strong defense that allows just over 18 points per game, good for 17th in the country. Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.
Iowa
This play is more about going against Iowa, as they have fallen on hard times of late and will not be going to a bowl game this season. Iowa is a terrible offensive team as they rank 96th in passing yards, 101st in rushing yards, and 104th in points scored. They have lost 4 straight games, and that will become six straight games in two weeks since they have yet to face Michigan and Nebraska. Iowa is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games.
Final Comment
The Wolverines are clearly the better team in this game regardless of who is behind center for them. Michigan still has an outside chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, and they cannot afford to take this game lightly. Lay the wood in this game as it will be a rout.
Michigan by 28
4 Unit Play. #80/#346 Take Vanderbilt Commodores -3.5 over Tennessee Volunteers
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm ESPN 2)
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is quietly plugging along in the ultra-competitive SEC, and they are already bowl eligible and have two winnable games to close out the season. This series has been owned by Tennessee, but this is the best chance Vanderbilt has had since they are playing a team that can't stop anybody on defense. Vanderbilt is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Tennessee
The Volunteers have one of the worst defenses in the country, and they are 113th in the country allowing 37 points per game. All the heartbreaking losses have taken its toll on this team, and now it is inevitable that a coaching change will occur at the end of the season. Tennessee is 3-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 14 SEC games.
Final Comment
Tennessee has owned this series, winning 28 of the 29 games, but this is not your father's team. Tennessee has a lame-duck coach and Vanderbilt has a chance to win 8 games on the season. Lay the small wood with the better team.
Vanderbilt by 13
4 Unit Play. #90/#326 Take Miami (FL) Hurricanes -6.5 over South Florida Bulls
(Saturday, 11/17, 3 pm ESPN 3)
Miami
The Hurricanes have had an up-and-down season but have a good chance to win their last two games of the season and make a bowl game (if they are eligible) to close out the season. Miami has not played well in this series of late, especially at home, and it is important for them to make a statement in this game against their in-state rival. Miami has covered 4 straight games at home, and they do have some impressive wins on the season against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.
USF
This play is more about going against South Florida, as they have taken a major step back this season. The Bulls score just over 25 points per game, and that will not get it done against Miami. USF is just 4-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 18 games.
Final Comment
Miami games have been high-scoring all season long, and I expect the Bulls to have trouble keeping pace with the Hurricanes. It is very important for Coach Golden to show improvement in Year 2, and he needs both of these games to produce a winning record in 2012. Miami represents the ACC well, and we collect big in the process too.
Miami by 14
5 Unit Play. #98/#396 Take Under 52.5 in Ohio State Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 11/17, 3:30 pm ABC) Top College Football Play of the Weekend
Ohio State
The Buckeyes sit atop the standings in the Big Ten and would be a major player for the BCS Championship Game if they were eligible. But that is not the case, and, thus, they will close out the season next week against Michigan. This will likely be their toughest test since they are in a hostile environment and facing a strong Wisconsin defense. Ohio State has gone under the posted total in 20 of their last 30 games (2 pushes) following a victory by 20 or more points in their previous game.
Wisconsin
The Badgers laid a beat down on Indiana last Saturday but will find it much tougher to move the football this week against Ohio State. QB Curt Phillips had his first start last week, and he was just a game manager and did not have to do anything throwing the football. That will not be the case in this game, and expect Ohio State to stack the line of scrimmage and make him beat them with his arm. Wisconsin has gone under the posted total in 5 of their last 6 home games (1 push) against Ohio State.
Final Comment
I would not dare release a side play on this game since I do not have a good feel with Wisconsin and their new quarterback. Therefore, the best value lies with the under and we will not worry who wins this game and just collect with the under.
Play the Under.

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Accuscore

All 4 *
Miss st -6
Ill/Purdue under 50
Northwestern +7.5
Indiana +17.5
Stanford +20.5
Tulsa/Central Florida over 56
Iowa +16.5
Washington St +21.5

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money line sports
College picks

northwestern
cincinnati
wake forest
louisiana tech
ohio st.
Arizona st.

Pro picks

detroit
pittsburgh

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R&R Totals

-= TOP PLAY =-

Temple vs Army
Take: Total 56½ ov-110