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Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
Cincinnati (-3.5) 30 LOUISVILLE 17 (Friday)
14-Nov-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Cincinnati is starting to show what a quality team they are while Louisville is starting to show how mediocre they are. The Bearcats are coming off convincing wins over South Florida and at West Virginia while Louisville has been horrible in losing consecutive home games to Syracuse (as a 13 point favorite) and Pittsburgh (by a 7-41 count). The loss to Pitt actually wasn’t as bad as the score indicates, as the Cardinals were -5 in turnover margin in that game (although they were out-gained 4.4 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Panthers). Louisville is better than they’ve shown the last two weeks, but they are a mediocre team that rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense with QB Hunter Cantwell in the game (5.4 yppl against Division 1A foes that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while rating as just average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl). Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 0.2 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at quarterback (Cincy struggled offensively relative to the defenses they faced in the 3 games Pike missed) and the Bearcats are an outstanding 0.8 yppl better than average defensively – allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Cincy has been particularly good defensively since giving up 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahama early in the season, as they’ve yielded just 4.4 yppl in 7 games since then (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The 40 points the Bearcats allowed to Connecticut prior to their current 2 game win streak was the result of a -6 in turnover margin and not bad defense (they allowed just 4.8 yppl in that game). In addition to being much better from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats should win the turnover battle, as Pike has thrown just 3 interceptions on 161 pass attempts (1.9%) while Louisville quarterback Cantwell has thrown 11 picks on 261 passes (4.2%). Cincinnati is also known for their ball-hawking secondary and they’ve intercepted 12 passes in 9 games while Louisville’s passive secondary has picked off just 5 passes and has been without a pick in 5 of their 8 Division 1A games. Cincinnati hasn’t been as good as their numbers because they are randomly at -9 in fumbles lost margin, losing 11 fumbles while recovering just 2. That’s just random bad luck, as 90% of fumble difference is random in college football. My math model gives the Bearcats a 58.9% chance of covering at -3 ½ points and a 57.8% chance of covering at -4 points. I’ll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at –4 or less, for 3-Stars at -3 (at -1.10 odds or better) and I’d consider the Bearcats a Strong Opinion from -4 ½ to -5 ½ points.
2 Star Selection
Cincinnati (-3.5) 30 LOUISVILLE 17 (Friday)
14-Nov-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Cincinnati is starting to show what a quality team they are while Louisville is starting to show how mediocre they are. The Bearcats are coming off convincing wins over South Florida and at West Virginia while Louisville has been horrible in losing consecutive home games to Syracuse (as a 13 point favorite) and Pittsburgh (by a 7-41 count). The loss to Pitt actually wasn’t as bad as the score indicates, as the Cardinals were -5 in turnover margin in that game (although they were out-gained 4.4 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Panthers). Louisville is better than they’ve shown the last two weeks, but they are a mediocre team that rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense with QB Hunter Cantwell in the game (5.4 yppl against Division 1A foes that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while rating as just average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl). Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 0.2 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at quarterback (Cincy struggled offensively relative to the defenses they faced in the 3 games Pike missed) and the Bearcats are an outstanding 0.8 yppl better than average defensively – allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Cincy has been particularly good defensively since giving up 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahama early in the season, as they’ve yielded just 4.4 yppl in 7 games since then (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The 40 points the Bearcats allowed to Connecticut prior to their current 2 game win streak was the result of a -6 in turnover margin and not bad defense (they allowed just 4.8 yppl in that game). In addition to being much better from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats should win the turnover battle, as Pike has thrown just 3 interceptions on 161 pass attempts (1.9%) while Louisville quarterback Cantwell has thrown 11 picks on 261 passes (4.2%). Cincinnati is also known for their ball-hawking secondary and they’ve intercepted 12 passes in 9 games while Louisville’s passive secondary has picked off just 5 passes and has been without a pick in 5 of their 8 Division 1A games. Cincinnati hasn’t been as good as their numbers because they are randomly at -9 in fumbles lost margin, losing 11 fumbles while recovering just 2. That’s just random bad luck, as 90% of fumble difference is random in college football. My math model gives the Bearcats a 58.9% chance of covering at -3 ½ points and a 57.8% chance of covering at -4 points. I’ll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at –4 or less, for 3-Stars at -3 (at -1.10 odds or better) and I’d consider the Bearcats a Strong Opinion from -4 ½ to -5 ½ points.
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