4-13-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers MLB

L.A. Angels +142 over N.Y. YANKEES Pinnacle
1:05 PM EST. The Yankees open up their home portion of the schedule in front of a packed house but so what. Every game is packed and the opposition is usually more jacked up than the home side. Besides, this season, New York is more beatable than they’ve been in previous years with an older, slower and a less intimidating lineup. The Yanks opened the season by losing three straight to the Rays and followed that up by sweeping the Orioles to even their record at 3-3. What the Rays and Angels have in common that the Orioles do not is good pitching. Ervin Santana appeared to be on his way to becoming one of the game's elite pitchers after his stellar 2008 season. Elbow ligament problems derailed him in 2009 but he has rebounded to establish himself as a solid workhorse. While he has not yet fully reclaimed his elite 2008 skills, Santana recovered in 2011, while displaying at least one new skill, an emerging GB tendency, reversing his historical flyball orientation to record a higher GB% than FB% for the first time. Santana posted a strong BAA reliability rating. He seems on his way to becoming a different type of pitcher than in 2008 and those changes suggest there could be even more improvement to come. At the end of the 2011 season, there were some questions about the back-end of the Yankee’s rotation. One solution was the signing of free agent Hiroki Kuroda but we’re not so sure. Kuroda switches from the NL to the AL and from pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine to hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium enhances runs by 8%, right-handed HR’s by 17%, left-handed jacks by a ghastly 43% and Kuroda does not have a high groundball tendency. While strong run support will provide him with plenty of chances to garner wins, his ERA is heading north and it’s also worth noting that the Rays got to him for eight hits and six runs in 5.2 frames. Overlay. Play: Los Angeles +142 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +109 over BOSTON Pinnacle
2:10 PM EST. The Red Sox also open their home schedule in this matinee game and bring their 1-5 record with them. Last year’s collapse seems to have carried over into this season and until we see something different, this is a great fade team because like the Yankees, Boston is usually overpriced. Josh Beckett was slaughtered in his season debut when he surrendered five, count ‘em, five jacks to the Tigers. The Red Sox lost that game 10-0. While we don’t put a lot of weight on one start, we saw signs of a Beckett decline last year and it’s hard to ignore five home runs allowed. Beckett had a dramatic fly-ball % rise a year ago that saw his fly-ball ratio go from 34% in 2010 to 45% last year. That’s significant and it appears as though it was no aberration. David Price’s strikeout growth is supported by raw stuff. His “average” fastball now sits at 95 MPH. Outstanding command and skills against both right-handed and left-handed batters supports that he's more than a LH feaster. Trends say he's an ace with even more growth potential with projections being a 2.50 ERA with 250 K’s. Play: Tampa Bay +109 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit -109 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
2:10 PM EST. The Tigers come in with a 5-1 record and their only loss came when they blew a 2-0 ninth inning lead against the Rays. They should be 6-0 and it’s no surprise, as they’re one of the favorites to win the World Series. The White Sox are one of the favorites to lose 100 games or more. Matt Scherzer was whacked in his opening day start in that bizarre 13-12 win over Boston. Jim Leyland said Scherzer started to battle a sinus infection over the weekend and it really affected him. It sounds as though Scherzer is feeling much better coming into this one. Scherzer went 2-2 with a 1.24 ERA and 27 strikeouts in four starts (29 innings) against Chicago last season. It seems like the ideal opponent for Scherzer to get back on track against. Jake Peavy has been on the DL in each of the last four years. He’s coming off a decent start in Texas in which he allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings in a very tough park but it was one start. Peavy went 7-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 112 IP with the South Side last season. His ERA and fly-ball ratio is trending ugly and even in that first game we saw a groundball rate of just 20%. The pitchers don’t always dictate the play. When we can spot less than a dime on the Tigers over the White Sox in a year in which one is projected to win 100 games while the other is projected to lose that many, we’ll gladly take our chances. Play: Detroit -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

KANSAS CITY -122 over Cleveland: Emotion is a big part of sports and these Royals are jacked up for their home opener. They have been talking about it all through preseason and their road trip. The fans will be jacked as well as they know they finally have a team that may do some damage this year. Derek Lowe had a fine outing in his opener as he pitched 7 scoreless innings vs Toronto, but this is still the same aging Derek Lowe that went 9-17 with a 5.05 ERA last year for the Braves and he is 4-4 (team starts) with a 4.92 ERA in 8 starts vs the Royals. Luke Hochevar is not aging and yes he has struggled vs the Tribe (4-7, 5.21 ERA), but he is still the better pitcher in this one and he looks like he is ready to be the ace of this staff. Luke also had a fin showing in his opener, allowing 2 ER on 5 hits in 6.1 innings of work, in a win at LA. The Royals had a rough showing in Oakland after a very good showing in LA, but they are back home where the crowd will be rocking at that should have both Luke and their offense pumped for this one. Look for this improved royals team to show their mfans what all the excitement is about surrounding this team.

2 UNIT PLAY

LA Angels/ NY Yanks Over 9.5: In looking at the way both starters did in their opening games and the way both offenses have been coming alive, it looks way too easy that this game will hit DD in runs, but sometimes i have been burned by the way too obvious so I will make this a lesser play and not a top play. The Angels bats seem to have waken up a bit as they put up 19 runs in Minnesota, which is more of a pitchers park than a hitters park and today they play in hitter friendly NY, vs Hiroki Kuroda, who allowed 8 hits, 4 walks and 4ER in just 5.2 innings of work in his opening start. Ervin Santana had a rough start in his opener, allowing 5 ER on 7 nhits and 2 walks in 5.2 innings of work and will be taking on a Yanks squad that has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games, with all of those games on the road and now they will be at home where they scored 5.77 rpg and hit .273 last year. Both teams have plenty of offense for this one, while the pitching may be below average at best here. 10 runs should be attainable.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

FLORIDA +110 over New Jersey

The Devils are the popular pick, as the Panthers, outside of Florida, are a team that nobody pays much attention to. Of all the teams in the playoffs, this is the least mentioned team and it will also be the least watched series. The Devils had a very nice season and played much of it under the radar until late January when folks realized just how good they are and how many points they recorded. They also missed the playoffs last year and will be hungry. However, they have some serious problems that are being overlooked. On defense, they are adequate but that core of defensemen cannot help offensively and that’s a liability. We also have no faith in Martin Brodeur. He’ll get lucky in a game or two with some saves that hit his pads as he’s flopping around out of position but he’s not to be trusted as a netminder that can win a series or help his team win. If New Jersey wins this series it’ll be because they outplay the Panthers by a wide margin and we don’t see that happening. Florida is getting no credit. They would actually have finished the season with more points than a lot of teams, including New Jersey, had they not lost 18 OT games (11 by shootout). Last time we looked, there were no shootouts in the playoffs. As mentioned in our series write-ups, the Panthers have a huge edge on the blue-line and in goal. Offensively, the Devils have an edge but with goaltending being a big part of every series and with Florida having more offense than they’re getting credit for, we give the edge to the Panthers and will play them on their home ice taking back a tag in their first home playoff game in 12 years. Play: Florida +110 (Risking 2 units).

Philadelphia +174 over PITTSBURGH

Based on value alone, the Flyers are an absolute must play. Philadelphia will be playing with house money here, as they are already up a game and stole home ice advantage. The Flyers won’t be satisfied with that. They are fully aware of how important it is to go up 2-0 against the Greatest Show on Ice and they’ll bring a horde of momentum into this one after being written off for dead in the last game in which when they were trailing 3-0. Additionally, it’s not being talked about much but Sidney Crosby took a pretty good shot to the head in game 1 and this is a fragile superstar, who is probably a hit in the head or two away from hanging up his skates for a long time. It’s something to watch, not only because he’s an important player but because he could also be playing a little tentative knowing that one hit could put him out. The Penguins defense proved once again that they’re a liability. They have trouble moving the puck out and they can be pressured into making bad decisions. Anyway, what we have here is two top-tiered clubs fighting to advance. This series is so close that anything can happen from game to game. The difference is that the Flyers are taking back a ridiculously high price and offer up all the value. If the game were in Philly, the Flyers would be favored and in no way is home ice worth 2-1 or close to it. Overlay. Play: Philadelphia +174 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +155 over VANCOUVER

Not sure if the odds makers watched game one or this line is based on the public’s thinking that the host cannot go down 0-2 in a “must win” game but just like in the Phi/Pit game, this line is simply out of whack. It’s hard to argue that Los Angeles wasn’t the better team in game one. They outhit, outplayed and outlasted the Canucks by a wide margin. The Kings sustained more pressure, they outshot them 39-26 and if not for the great goaltending of Roberto Luongo, the score would’ve been much worse. A lot has been made about the Kings taunting the Canucks on Twitter after the game. In case you missed it and it’s all over the internet, the Kings official Twitter account tweeted this, “To all of Canada outside of B.C., you’re welcome”. Sure, it might motivate the Canucks a little more but too much is being made of it, as the media continues to blow everything way out of proportion. The product on the ice sees the Kings in a great state of mind with a great game plan to beat this team. Vancouver is certainly feeling the pressure of losing last year, losing its best player and being down 1-0 in the series. We also love the fact that the Kings fell behind 1-0 early in game one and were not fazed one bit by their much maligned “lack of offense”. They played with swagger and created a slew of scoring chances. That aforementioned “must win” angle is probably the lamest angle of them all and holds zero weight. The Kings can go up 2-0 in this series and seeing what happened in game one and with a take-back of +155, it’s very easy to pull the trigger on them here. Play: Los Angeles +155 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

NHL SERIES

FLORIDA +167 over New Jersey

This is a series everyone assumes the Devils are going to win but we’re not as convinced, as Florida is truly a team with nothing to lose. "We're going in loose," GM Dale Tallon said Sunday. "Everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop, but we're going to have some fun with this." While the Devils seem to hold a significant edge in terms of the firepower up front, there are still questions about the blue line. They have been without their best defenseman, Henrik Tallinder, for the last half of the season and blood clotting issues look to keep him out of the playoffs. No defenseman had more than four goals. While the addition of Marek Zidlicky at the trade deadline added a little oomph to the blue line, the reality is the Devils won't get much help from the back end when it comes to offense. The Panthers, by comparison, are downright dynamic on the back end. Led by Brian Campbell, who finished tied for second among all defensemen with 53 points and second among defensemen with 49 assists, the Panthers' blue line is crucial to generating offense. Jason Garrison enjoyed a breakout year with 16 goals, third among defensemen. Dmitry Kulikov, who had 27 points, is another weapon from the back end. In a series that figures to be tight, production from the blue line, or lack thereof, might be a deciding factor. Lastly, we’ve been suggesting all year that Marty Brodeur is a big liability and we’re not about to change our tune now. He’s allowed an inordinate amount of soft goals and could easily cost the Devils this series. The price, the lack of pressure, the much stronger goaltending and defense make the Panthers very appealing taking back a tag like this with home ice advantage. Play: Florida +167 (Risking 1 unit).

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

100* Play Oklahoma City (-14) over Sacramento (NBA PLAY)
8:00 PM EST

Sacramento has lost 17 of the last 26 games against the spread when the total posted is greater than 200 points and they have also lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread when playing in the month of April. Sacramento has lost 10 of the last 11 games against the spread when playing nine or more games in fourteen days and they have also lost 40 of the last 43 games as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 8.5 White Sox/Tigers

50* Tampa Bay Rays even

[Mr. IWS]

Chase Diamond

30 Dimes NY Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

Easy Baseball Betting

Our systems say to go for:

Padres (+116)

Diamondbacks (+102)

Giants (-170)

Brewers (+120)

Devil Rays (+111)

White Sox (+103)

Mets (+159)

Indians (+115)

Astros (+186).

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox - OVER 8.5 RUNS (-115) **2:10 PM EST START**
Listed Pitchers: Scherzer vs Peavy
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)

The Tigers head into Chicago for their first divisional game of the season as they look to improve on their solid 5-1 start to the season. The White Sox had a successful 3-2 start to the season on the road and look to win their home opener tonight to keep up with the Tigers. Detroit will send Max Scherzer to the mound who looks to rebound from his rough start to the season. In his first start against the Red Sox Scherzer allowed 8 hits and 7 earned runs in just 2.2 innings of work. Scherzer had a 5.23 ERA on the road in 2011 compared to his 3.80 ERA at home. On the road he had a higher WHIP at 1.42 and .279 opponents batting average. Chicago's starter Jake Peavy went 6 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 earned runs in his first start of the season in Texas. Peavy was 7-7 last season with a 4.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .268 opponents batting average. Most of the time we see pitchers more comfortable at home, but that wasn't the case with Peavy last season. Peavy went 3-6 at home last year with a high 6.11 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .284 opponents batting average. Cabrera hit .388 against the White Sox last year, which included 6 homeruns and 18 RBIs. With Fielder hitting behind him in the lineup he is just that much more dangerous. The Tigers are averaging 6.67 runs per game so far this season, and they have 5 of their key players hitting over .300 on the year. The White Sox got their bats going against Cleveland on Wednesday with a 10-6 win, and look to rough up Scherzer in their home opener. Take note that the OVER is 5-1-1 in Scherzer's last 7 starts overall, 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs divisional opponents, and 3-1-1 in his last 5 road starts. The OVER is 21-7-1 in the White Sox last 29 divisional games, and 9-3 in their last 12 following a game where they scored 5+ runs. The OVER is 10-4-1 in Peavy's last 15 vs a team with a winning record, 4-1-1 in his last 6 home starts, and 9-3-1 in his last 13 starts as an underdog. Also take note that the OVER is 18-7-1 in these two teams last 26 meetings and 9-3-1 in their last 13 meetings in Chicago. The bats should be going tonight and we have a generous price on a 8.5 run total - take the OVER.

[Mr. IWS]

Bryan Leonard

Friday Night NBA Revenger!!

Oklahoma City -14

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
MLB 21-23 Season-to-Date +$1740
Game: Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +145 (moneyline)

The Los Angeles Angles signed Albert Pujols to a long-term deal, which basically makes their solid pitching stronger by lengthening their lineup. The Yankees are hoping to get a good year out of Hiroki Kuroda, but at the age of 37 he might not have much left. He was hit hard in his Pinstripes debut, after closing last year with the Dodgers going 2-3 in his last five starts. The Angels have gotten huge outings from Santana when he opens a series where they are 27-8 in their last 35. The Bombers have been a disappointing 3-9 after a day off in their last 12, and a team that used to kill right-hand pitching is just 3-8 against them in their last 11. Play on LA.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS WINNERS

3* Detroit Tigers ML-109

3* Tampa Bay Rays ML+114

4* OVER 6.5 - Oakland Athletics/Seattle Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George NBA Sides Fri, 04/13/12 - 8:05 PM

dime bet 517 MIL -4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 518 DET

Analysis: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
Must win for Milwaukee off back to back losses, and avenging a loss here to Detroit as well. I do not always favor laying points on the road, but like the set up in this game for Milwaukee. On the road playing against teams with a losing record, the Bucks have performed, 10-2 ATS their 12 times. Pistons off a huge win last night against lowly Charlotte. Not buying the can play with a motivated Bucks team with a killer backcourt in this one.
Play 1 Unit on the Bucks.

Free Pick: Houston Rockets -4
Like them against the Suns in this spot at home tonight. Suns on a long road trip and I like going against teams at the end of long raodies. Speaking of roadies, The Rockets just went 4-0 SU on the road and including a huge win over Da Bulls, and I look for them to bounce back after a home loss to Utah in their game here tonight. Homecourt helps here big time. Houston is 20-9 at this year. They are also avenging a loss to the Suns.

[Mr. IWS]

Andy Iskoe FRIDAY

Atlanta at Orlando: These teams start the week separated by just a half game in the standings with Atlanta seeded fifth and Orlando sixth. Atlanta won, and covered, both earlier meetings, one at home and one on the road. Both games played in a two week period just before the All Star break and the margins were just 2 and 5 points.

Orlando has been the soap opera story of the season with the latest episode involving the discord between Coach Stan van Gundy and star Dwight Howard. The Orlando center has been battling back spasms and was expected to miss games on Monday and Tuesday. Atlanta has been a steady team all season, playing under the radar and starting the week having won seven of the last 10 games.

Orlando starts the week on a 4-6 slide that has seen them lose what seemed to be a solid hold on the number 3 seed. Atlanta should come the underdog by a couple of buckets or so and has played .500 ball on the road and been profitable away from home. ATLANTA.