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Re: 11-11-08
Dr. Bob
Ball St. (-19.5) 38 MIAMI OHIO 20
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-11 - Stats Matchup
Ball State quarterback Nate Davis (8.7 yards per pass play) and running back MiQuale Lewis (1108 yards at 5.8 ypr) should pad their stats in this game against a horrible Miami-Ohio defense that has allowed 5.4 yards per rushing play and 6.5 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp and 5.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Ball State also has a solid edge with their solid defense against a sub-par Redhawks’ attack, but my math model only favors the Cardinals by 18 points. -
Re: 11-11-08
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
I'm taking the points with MIAMI OHIO. By now, everyone knows that Ball State is a good team. Indeed, the Cardinals come in with a perfect 9-0 record to go along with an impressive 6-1 mark at the betting window. Give the Cardinals credit for having a great year. A perfect record in mid-November brings a lot media attention though. That means inflated pointspreads AND the best effort from every opponent. While Ball State did win big last week, take a look at what the other undefeated teams did. Utah needed to rally in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to defeat TCU. Penn State lost when Iowa hit a field goal at the buzzer and Alabama was taken to Overtime by LSU. Texas Tech and Boise State were the only teams that won big and the line on the Broncos got so big (-35) that they had to settle for a push vs. the closing number. In other words, three of five undefeated teams were seriously tested and only one of the five earned an "easy" cover. As was the case with the Boise State game, tonight's line has climbed a few points from its opener, providing us with additional line value. While its certainly been a disappointing season, the Redhawks are more talented than their record indicates. Keep in mind that they while the Cardinals were expected to contend for the Mac West title, the Redhawks were expected to contend for the Mac East title. In fact, at the beginning of the season, this was a game which Ball State had circled as one of its more difficult games on the schedule. Obviously, things haven't worked out as planned for Miami. My point is that this team is more talented than its record. Looking back to last year's meeting and we find that Miami won outright (as 5 pt underdogs) at Ball State, winning by a score of 14-13. Note that the Redhawks brought back a whopping 17 starters from that team. Looking back further and we find that the 2006 meeting was decided by just three points. In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have been decided by 11 points or less. Raudabagh gets the start at QB instead of Belton but that's not a concern as he's had plenty of starting experience with this team. Yes, the Redhawks have lost two in a row. They're already 2-0 ATS in lined games after two or more consecutive losses though, playing their best games in that situation. The Redhawks are also 5-3 ATS the last eight times they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range and 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for them to show some pride here and give the Cardinals a much tougher game than most are expecting. *Best Bet
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Re: 11-11-08
dr bob
DUKE (-27) over Georgia Southern
Duke has a history of success as a huge favorite under coach K, as his teams rarely let up with big leads and garbage time is actually time for his McDonald's All-American bench players to show that they can play. As a result, big leads usually become bigger leads when things get out of hand. Duke is 41-17-1 ATS as a regular season favorite of 23 points or more, including 34-11-1 ATS following a victory. The Blue Devils also apply to a very good 89-36-2 ATS game 2 situation if the line stays at -28 or less. Georgia Southern was a pretty decent team last season, but they lost 4 starters from that team, including assist machine Dwayne Foreman, who dished out over 6 assists per game. Losing a guy that averages 6 assists per game is more damaging than losing a guy that scores 20 points per game and I don't think the Eagles' offense is going to be nearly as good this season without Foreman leading that attack. The Eagles made just 38.7% of their shots last night in a win over a Houston team that’s on their way to a down season and they'll be overwhelmed by Duke's great defense tonight. My ratings favor Duke by 26 points and I'm not interested in giving up line value to force a Best Bet. I'll lean with Duke at -27 1/2 or less, and I'd take Duke in a 2-Star Best Bet at -26 points or less.Comment
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