12-3-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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Note:

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[Mr. IWS]

DUNKEL INDEX

Game 309-310: Connecticut at Cincinnati (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 90.178; Cincinnati 92.058
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 53
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10; 49
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+10); Over

Game 311-312: Syracuse at Pittsburgh (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 78.123; Pittsburgh 95.594
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 17 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Iowa State at Kansas State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 98.749; Kansas State 102.764
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4; 51
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 10 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+10 1/2); Under

Game 315-316: Wyoming at Colorado State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 84.815; Colorado State 72.309
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 12 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 5 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-5 1/2); Over

Game 317-318: UNLV at TCU (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 64.045; TCU 100.084
Dunkel Line: TCU by 36; 55
Vegas Line: TCU by 39 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+39 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 109.974; Oklahoma State 120.096
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 10; 80
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2; 74
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 321-322: Texas at Baylor (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 100.916; Baylor 102.493
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 1 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Baylor by 2 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+2 1/2); Under

Game 323-324: Idaho at Nevada (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 72.578; Nevada 88.969
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 16 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Nevada by 20 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+20 1/2); Over

Game 325-326: New Mexico at Boise State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 56.030; Boise State 107.748
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 51 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Boise State by 48 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-48 1/2); Under

Game 327-328: BYU at Hawaii (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 95.116; Hawaii 78.488
Dunkel Line: BYU by 16 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: BYU by 7; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-7); Over

Game 329-330: Utah State at New Mexico State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 79.904; New Mexico State 71.854
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 8; 57
Vegas Line: Utah State by 13 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+13 1/2); Under

Game 331-332: Fresno State at San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 78.736; San Diego State 84.814
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 6; 56
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 8; 59
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+8); Under

Game 333-334: Troy at Arkansas State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 65.043; Arkansas State 88.487
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 23 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 17 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-17 1/2); Over

Game 335-336: Middle Tennessee State at North Texas (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 65.879; North Texas 69.790
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 4; 52
Vegas Line: North Texas by 5 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+5 1/2); Under

Game 337-338: UL-Monroe at FAU (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 74.367; FAU 60.747
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 13 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-7); Over

Game 339-340: Southern Mississippi at Houston (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 99.505; Houston 107.516
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8; 77
Vegas Line: Houston by 13; 71
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+13); Over

Game 341-342: LSU vs. Georgia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 122.417; Georgia 104.720
Dunkel Line: LSU by 17 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: LSU by 13 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-13 1/2); Under

Game 343-344: Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 98.041; Clemson 95.836
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 2; 56
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+7); Over

Game 345-346: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 98.029; Wisconsin 112.407
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 14 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-9); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast - "Power Sweep" newsletter selections
College
4* Kansas State
3* Pitt
2* Houston
2* Texas

Underdog > Michigan State +9.5

Technical play > Houston
Situational play > BYU

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
1 OF 7
Game: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin (Saturday 12/03 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Wisconsin -9.5 (-110)

Indianapolis will be the site for the inaugural Big-10 Championship featuring Michigan State vs. Wisconsin. The Spartans pulled off a miracle in their regular season matchup this year. Michigan State got a Hail Mary win on the last play of the game to steal the win 37-31. I think there is going to be payback in this one with the better team coming out on top. The defenses in this game are on the same level, but the Badgers' offense is light years ahead of what Michigan State brings to the table. Wisconsin allowed 37 points to this offense in round one - the most they gave up all season. So, you can bet that they will come loaded for bear in this one to atone. This Badgers team allowed 17 points or less in 10 of their 12 games while topping the 40-point mark eight times. Michigan State is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a dog from 3.5 to 10 points. Coach Dantonio has never won a game at Michigan State as a dog of +8 or more as he is 0-18 straight up, covering just 1/3 of them. Under Bret Bielema, the Badgers have been a team of momentum, going 15-6 ATS after a big win by 28 or more and 24-13 ATS after an ATS win.
Wisconsin extracts revenge here with the win and cover.

[Mr. IWS]

Championship Week NCAA-F Trends & Angles

Well, this is Championship Week in NCAA Football, so we will look at all the conference championship games from a trend perspective. Note that all trends included within the championship games are based on post-season records (conference championships and bowl games) since the 2000 season.

MAC Championship
Northern Illinois (-3½ ) vs. Ohio: There is not too much to go on here, since MAC teams have gone a dismal 19-28-2 ATS in the post-season since 2000, and they have been just as bad as favorites (9-12-1 ATS) as they have as underdogs (9-16-1). One tiny edge for Northern Illinois is that MAC favorites between -3 and -6½ are 5-3-1, 62.6 percent ATS. With not much else to go on, we will make Northern Illinois a weak play. Northern Illinois -3½

Pac-12 Championship
Oregon (-31½ ) vs. UCLA: Now we get that Oregon is one of the best teams in the country while UCLA would probably be the worst BCS team in history if it pulls off this monumental upset, and the Bruins are playing for a fired, lame duck coach. All of that said though, Pac-12 underdogs are 22-10-1, 68.8 percent ATS during the post season while Pac-12 favorites are only 22-24 ATS. Double-digit Pac-12 underdogs are 4-3 ATS with the last two covering easily, as Washington upset Nebraska outright last season and Stanford lost by only four points to Oklahoma in 2010. Tread lightly as the The Trends & Angles play says to take UCLA +31½

Conference-USA Championship
Houston (-12½) vs. Southern Miss: The overall performance of Conference USA during the post-season has been very nondescript, as the conference is 32-33-2 ATS overall since 2000. However, that all changes when you look at double-digit spreads as Conference USA double-digit underdogs are 7-2-1 ATS while the conference's double-digit favorites are 0-2 ATS. So with that in mind, the trends point to Southern Miss +12½

SEC Championship
LSU (-13½) vs. Georgia: As you might expect, the SEC has been a great bet during the post-season since 2000, going 56-47-5, 54.4 percent overall. It has performed better as an underdog though, going 24-18-1, 57.1 percent ATS in that role as opposed to 32-29-4, 52.5 percent as a favorite. Besides the trends in this game, it is debatable whether or not LSU will give a full effort from start to finish, considering that the Tigers are more than likely already locked into the National Championship Game vs. fellow SEC member Alabama even if they lose this game.The Trends side with the 57.1 percent SEC dog angle here. Georgia +13½ (you can afford to wait here as +14½ could be right around the corner).

ACC Championship
Virginia Tech (-7) vs. Clemson: ACC teams have been very predicable in the post-season since 2000, as they are only 27-30 ATS as favorites but a fantastic 30-14-1, 68.2 percent as underdogs! Now we get that the ACC is in a down period right now, but even during these lean times, ACC post-season underdogs are 10-6, 62.5 percent ATS the last three years. Finally, on the two occasions that the ACC Championship has been a regular season rematch, the team that won the regular season meeting covered the spread in the rematch. Clemson upset the Hokies in Blacksburg this season.

Big Ten Championship
Wisconsin (-9½) vs. Michigan State: The ACC has been similar to the ACC during the post-season since 2000 in that underdogs have performed well while favorites have not, except that the difference has been much more pronounced. Big Ten favorites have gone a wretched 9-18, 33.3 percent ATS the last 11 post-seasons, while Big Ten dogs have gone 35-26-1, 57.4 percent ATS. The trends indicate Michigan State +9½

[Mr. IWS]

Gridiron Gold Sheet

CONNECTICUT (+9.0, ov47.5)
CINCINNATI (-9.0, un47.5)
The UConn Huskies offense has new looks on the field with junior QB Johnny McEntee but not very good with 24 points, 184 yards passing per game, but they have plenty to play for in this one. UConn can become bowl eligible with a win at Cincinnati. Connecticut beat South Florida 16-10 without scoring an offensive touchdown. They only allow 22.3 ppg. Cincinnati had a high octane offense, but they had a huge injury late in the season: Senior QB Zach Collaros (14 TDs, 8 INTs) is out for the season with a leg injury, so sophomore quarterback Munchie Legaux is running the offense. A loss by Cincinnati would give Louisville, 5-2 in the Big East, the title. Bearcat defense is allowing 19 ppg.This should be a physical defensive battle with two QB's trying to minimize mistakes. Expect a safe game plan from both coaches and take the UNDER.
TAKE: Cincinnati/UConn Under 47.5

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

Saturday

Medium
#327 BYU (-7.5) over Hawaii

Small
#339 Southern Miss (+14) over Houston
#330 New Mexico State (+14.5) over Utah State
Wyoming / Colorado under 51

Small Teasers
teaser - 310 Cincinnati -2 & 346 Wisconsin -2.5
teaser – 314 Kansas St -4 & 327 BYU -0.5

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take #327 BYU (-7.5) over Hawaii (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 3)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #339 Southern Miss (+14) over Houston (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 3)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #330 New Mexico State (+14.5) over Utah State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 3)

This week's totals:
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 51.0 Wyoming at Colorado State (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 3)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #310 Cincinnati (-2) over Connecticut (Noon) AND Take #346 Wisconsin (-2.5) over Michigan State (8 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #314 Kansas State (-4) over Iowa State (12:30 p.m.) AND Take #327 BYU (-0.5) over Hawaii (7:30 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON TWIN-HYDRA NCAA BOMB

GEORGIA +14 vs lsu (SEC CHAMPIONSHIP)

OKLAHOMA +4 at oklahoma state ( BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP)

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REGULAR

HOUSTON -13.5 vs usm (C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP)

[Mr. IWS]

EA Sports Consultants

50* Baylor -2.5 (3:30pm ET)
50* Virginia Tech -6.5 (8:00pm ET)
50* Wisconsin -9.5 (8:15pm ET)

25* Iowa State +10 (12:30pm ET)
25* LSU -13.5 (4:00pm ET)
25* Oklahoma +3.5 (8:00pm ET)

[Mr. IWS]

bryan leonard cfb

sat- kansas st, sou miss

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

CFB - Pittsburgh -9
CFB - LSU -13-
CFB - Clemson +6-

[Mr. IWS]

Falcon Sports

Top program play for today


Oklahoma St -3 (-1.15) 2 units CFB

[Mr. IWS]

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: WEEK 14

West Virginia Mountaineers at South Florida Bulls (+1.5, 55)
WHY WEST VIRGINIA WILL COVER: West Virginia possesses the sixth-best pass offense in the nation, while USF is 84th against the pass. The Bulls are just 1-7 ATS in its last eight.
WHY SOUTH FLORIDA WILL COVER: The Mountaineers have been playing with fire lately, winning their last two by a combined four points. And the Bulls’ offense ranks high in passing and rushing. With improvement in red zone efficiency, USF could play with anyone.
POINTS: The over is 7-1 in West Virginia’s last eight as a favorite and is 6-3 in USF’s last nine.

UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks (-31.5, 65.5)
WHY UCLA WILL COVER: The Bruins average 193 ypg rushing, and will try to shorten the game.
WHY OREGON WILL COVER: UCLA has scored six points or less in three straight. The Bruins will have to score a lot more than that to cover. UCLA is 2-6 ATS against opponents with a winning record.
POINTS: UCLA’s offense has been dreadful, though Oregon can get to 50 in a blink.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Houston Cougars (-13, 71.5)
WHY SOUTHERN MISS WILL COVER: The Eagles can move the ball through the air and on the ground, and Houston’s defense isn’t superb. Southern Miss is 7-2-1 ATS in its last eight, and is excited to play a spoiler role.
WHY HOUSTON WILL COVER: Is USM’s 55th-ranked pass defense good enough to slow down the No. 1 passing and scoring offense? Probably not.
POINTS: The over is 3-1 in USM’s last four, and this is the second-lowest over/under number for a Houston game since Sept. 29.

Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (-10, 49)
WHY UCONN WILL COVER: UConn is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 conference games, while Cincy is only 4-12 in its last 16. The Huskies’ third-ranked run defense matches up well with what the Bearcats want to do.
WHY CINCINNATI WILL COVER: A new QB hasn’t slowed the Cincy offense. The defense should punish Connecticut’s struggling run game.
POINTS: The under has hit in Cincy’s last four, and has missed in UConn’s last four.

Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State Wildcats (-10.5, 54)
WHY IOWA WILL COVER: The Cyclones, after a bad start, are 4-1 ATS in the last five. If ISU can get going on the ground, that opens things up for the rest of the offense.
WHY KANSAS STATE WILL COVER: K-State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10. The Wildcats’ balanced attack on offense may overwhelm an ISU defense that isn’t great at stopping anything.
POINTS: The under is 5-0 in ISU’s last five, but is 1-5 in KSU’s last six.

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at TCU Horned Frogs (-38.5, 58)
WHY UNLV WILL COVER: The Rebels need to sap some clock with its No. 45 run game and hope that time runs quickly, or hope TCU rests some starters in the second half.
WHY TCU WILL COVER: This is the third-largest spread TCU has faced this season. It hit on the other two. The Rebels are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records.
POINTS: The over is 11-4 in TCU’s last 15.

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-2.5, 64)
WHY TEXAS WILL COVER: The Longhorns’ defense has improved all season, while the offense should be fired up to face Baylor’s D, which ranks in the bottom 20 in every statistical category.
WHY BAYLOR WILL COVER: Texas is 96th in passing, which should help Baylor’s maligned defense. QB Robert Griffin III is back from a concussion.
POINTS: The over is 6-0 in Baylor home games, though the under is 4-1-1 in Texas’ last six.

LSU Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (13.5, 46)
WHY LSU WILL COVER: LSU is 7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The second-ranked defense has smothered much better offenses than the Bulldogs.
WHY GEORGIA WILL COVER: LSU’s defense gets the headlines, but Georgia’s is no slouch, ranking No. 6 against the run, No. 12 vs. the pass and No. 10 in points allowed. And its offense can do everything effectively. Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 overall.
POINTS: Strong defenses that have led the teams this far. That isn’t likely to change now.

New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos (-48.5, 61)
WHY NEW MEXICO WILL COVER: Boise State is 0-5 ATS in its last five, while UNM is 3-0 ATS in its last three and has found a run defense. Against anybody, that’s a mighty spread.
WHY BOISE STATE WILL COVER: The Broncos may be struggling down the stretch, but the Lobos rank 120th offensively and 119th defensively in scoring. They are, statistically speaking, the absolute worst team in the nation.
POINTS: The under is 4-0 in UNM’s last four, but the over is 6-1 in Boise State’s last seven.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 74)
WHY OKLAHOMA WILL COVER: Oklahoma’s offense is nearly as strong as OSU’s, but the defense ranks about 60 spots higher in points allowed and rush defense. After a seven-win streak ATS, Okie State is 1-2 of late.
WHY OKLAHOMA STATE WILL COVER: OSU’s second-ranked passing and scoring offense matches up very well against the 87th-ranked pass defense of OU. The Cowboys are 6-2-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 in this rivalry.
POINTS: The teams combine to average 93 points per game, which makes this mark look low.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Clemson Tigers (7, 52.5)
WHY VIRGINIA TECH WILL COVER: Tech’s eighth-ranked defense has allowed more than 21 points just once in the last six weeks. Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four. The Hokies’ strong run game matches up well against the Tigers’ shaky run defense.
WHY CLEMSON WILL COVER: VT is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11, while Clemson is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games. Clemson’s passing game remains strong.
POINTS: The under has been the trend for both teams the last month.

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5, 54.5)
WHY MICHIGAN STATE WILL COVER: MSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine thanks to a defense that ranks in the top 11 across the board. Sparty already beat Bucky once, albeit on a Hail Mary.
WHY WISCONSIN WILL COVER: MSU can throw the ball, but doesn’t have a run game to complement it. Wisconsin ranks No. 3 in slowing the pass, and the Badgers’ offense, which averages 230 ypg passing and 247 ypg rushing, is on a roll.
POINTS: The over is 7-2 in UW’s last nine and is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Saturday's Best NCAA CFB Bets

Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (-10.5)

Iowa State’s claim to fame this season was its thrilling 37-31 double-overtime victory over Oklahoma State as a 26.5-point home underdog, which all but ended the Cowboys national title hopes. Overall, the Cyclones are 6-5 both straight-up and against the spread.

Kansas State has been a very profitable team this season with a 9-2 record both SU and ATS. What makes this record even more impressive is the fact that the Wildcats were underdogs in eight of the 11 games. They are coming off a huge 17-13 win over Texas on Nov. 19 as 7.5-point road underdogs.

The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Kansas State. The Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games in the Big 12.

PICK: Kansas State 28 Iowa State 10


No. 22 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 17 Baylor Bears (-2.5)

Texas bounced back from a stunning loss the Kansas State with a hard-fought 27-25 win over Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Longhorns will look to complete the state-sweep behind a rushing attack that is averaging 211.3 yards a game.

Baylor received some good news this week as it appears that quarterback Robert Griffin III will be ready to go for Saturday’s game after getting hit in head in the Bears 66-42 romp over Texas Tech as 12-point home favorites last Saturday.

The road team in this series is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Baylor. The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record.

PICK: Texas 38 Baylor 35


No. 5 Virginia Tech Hokies (-7) vs. No. 20 Clemson Tigers

The 11-1 Hokies only blemish this season was a 23-3 loss to Clemson on Oct.1 as seven-point home favorites. They struggled to move the ball against the Tigers the first time around, but look for a much better effort from an offense that is averaging close to 200 yards a game on the ground.

In order for Clemson to pull-off the sweep, it will need a strong performance from quarterback Tajh, who has thrown for 3,338 yards and 28 touchdowns and running back Andre Ellington, who has 937 yards rushing and nine TD’s.

Virginia Tech is 3-8 ATS in its 11 games this season and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. Clemson is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hokies are 5-1 both SU and ATS in the last six meetings between the two.

PICK: Virginia Tech 24 Clemson 21