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Super Dog Picks - College Football Top Notch Picks
Saturday, December 3, 2011
12:30 pm est. * Iowa St. at Kansas St.
Pick: Iowa State (+10.5)
Rating: 2 BONES
Analysis: Teams are 0-8-1 ATS playing in Kansas St.'s spot of home favorite of 10->13.5 in conference after winning ATS in 3 straight games as dogs. Iowa State's program is improving and they look to lock a bowl position with a strong performance here. The have won 4 of 5 ATS and 3 of their last 4 overall after last weeks loss at Oklahoma. No doubt that Kansas St. has had a great season, but a closer look at the stats shows that the Wildcats actually have averaged 59.5 yards less per game than their opponents. I like the Cyclones to keep it close here as long as they don't turn the ball over.
2:30 pm est. * UNLV at TCU
Pick: TCU (-38.5)
Rating: 4 BONES
Analysis: Texas Christian has gone 11-0 ATS at home in conference games after losing ATS and going under in their previous game. UNLV has gone 3-13 ATS in their 16 games against teams with a winning record. TCU has won the last 4 meetings SU and ATS, including wins by 41 and 42 in their last 2 meetings. UNLV has shown a tendency to get blown out this season, losing by 37 to Nevada, 28 at Air Force, and 38 at Wisconsin. TCU is healthy and UNLV has many injuries. This game should resemble a performance TCU put up at home against New Mexico, winning 69-0.
8:00 pm est. * Oklahoma at Oklahoma St.
Pick: OVER 70.5
Rating: 3 BONES
Analysis: Oklahoma has gone over in all 8 games they have played in conference after winning and going under as favorites against a good team. Oklahoma State has gone over in all 7 games they have played as favorites after going under in 2 straight. Expect an offensive explosion between these two teams as Oklahoma averages 43 points per game and the Cowboys average 49.8 points per game. Neither team have been good on defense as the Sooners allow 20.8 points per game and the Cowboys allow 27.3 points per game. The over is 8-1 in the Sooners last 9 games on field turf. The over is 43-16-1 in the Cowboys last 60 home games. Four of the last 5 meetings between these teams have gone over.
3:30 pm est. * Utah St. at New Mexico St.
Pick: Utah St. (-14)
Rating: 2 BONES
Analysis: New Mexico St. has gone 0-7 ATS as 14->16.5 point dogs after losing ATS. They are 0-9 ATS against Utah State after losing SU + ATS as dogs. Utah State has gone 7-0 ATS at New Mexico State after playing as home dogs. The Aggies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. They have won 4 straight and will be facing a weak opponent in which they want to win in impressive fashion to improve bowl position. New Mexico St. has lost 5 of their last 6 games, including losses in their last 2 by 44 and 35.
8:00 pm est. * Virginia Tech at Clemson
Pick: UNDER 53.5
Rating: 4 BONES
Analysis: The under is 12-4-1 in Virginia Tech's last 17 games on grass. Clemson has gone under in 12 of their last 15 games in conference. Hard to see how this line is at 53.5 when Virginia Tech averages 45 points in their games and Clemson 50. Clemson has gone under in 4 straight and Virginia Tech in 3 of their last 4. Teams have gone under in all 7 games playing in Clemson's position as post season dogs after losing SU+ATS + going under in their previous 2 games.
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