UFC 132 July 2nd

[SPX]

That's a pretty interesting idea. I think it has some potential.

I'm also starting to think Condit will win this outright, though. Whoever it was who said that the two guys DHK dominated on the ground were two of the physically weakest guys in the division was right. It's a good point. DHK also won a very close decision to Matt Brown. Condit's kind of weak when it comes to defending takedowns, and he also has had kind of a shaky start in most of his fights, so it's probably going to be close either way.

[edman5555]

Yeah I could see Condit losing round one but still winning the fight. I guess I could say that about a lot of fights but Dong seems like he gasses and Condit seems like a workhorse. With the takedown advantage being with Dong it is almost perfect. That said, I will probably lose the bet.

[SPX]

I do think it's an interesting concept and there might be something to it. I also think that Condit winning Rd 3 is almost certain.

[edman5555]

Yeah he beat Ellenberger and one judge gave him the Kampmann fight. Kampmann's wrestling isn't bad. At least his defensive wrestling isn't. I am not sure where Dong stacks up with them. I really think the line is accurate in this one. I'm not even sure that Condit loses the first round. I just think his value still holds really well even if he does.

[Vandelay]

Good idea, but generally when an underdog wins the first rd, the line doesn't shift much. Take howard vs brown this past weekend. Pretty clear that brown won the first rd, yet the live betting after it had brown at plus 240, higher than prior to the fight. Now if the favorite wins rd 1 the line skyrockets. Not sure what happens on an even odds fight, but im sure the line doesnt shift drastically.

[SPX]

If DHK wins round one in a convincing fashion, I expect he'd go to -200.

[Vandelay]

And. if someone wins the first 2 rds. you can bet your ass that the live odds will be plus 500 or better.

[SPX]

Considering the combo of DHK's third round gassing abilities and Condit's third round finishing abilities, I'd take Condit at +500 for sure in that situation.

[Ludo]

Honestly I don't see how Dos Anjos expects to beat George. George will be hunting for that takedown from bell to bell and Rafael just doesn't give a shit enough to stuff them all. He doesn't care about being on the bottom and if George gets on top Rafael won't even try to get up, he's going to want to play guard. But he won't be submitting George from the bottom and he'll probably lose a decision if this fight spends any significant time on the ground.

[edman5555]

Well Dos anjos will probably try to stand if he gets taken down. I am sure he knows as well as we do he isn't subbing George.

[Thewisemann]

I had a brainstorm the other day: Dong Hyun kim wins via takedowns against Condit..I think we all agree on that point. I think he tends to get tired though and he may have some trouble taking down Condit. Condit also has a really high workrate which could wear StunGun out. I am thinking of waiting until the first round is over and betting Condit via the live betting option depending on how it went. However I would only bet Condit if Dong won the first round and Condit did fairly well. I would consider fairly well resisting a few takedowns but getting taken down once or twice and outlanding Dong a lot. If Dong wins round one the odds on Condit might go up to +400 or +500. It is def possible that he could resist Dong well enough for the second and third rounds to win. Maybe even knock him out.

All this is contingent upon Dong winning round 1 and A) having some trouble doing it but still convincingly winning and B) having to work a lot and taking a lot of strikes.

Whether or not anyone agrees with me on this particular fight I think it is a good concept for the future. I bet there are a lot of fights out there that we can come up with strategies like this beforehand. Ex: Nate Diaz getting outwrestled in the beginning and wearing his opponent down. Another Ex: Betting a guy that we only think can win by stoppage after he loses the judges in R1.

This could be a good way of getting better odds on select fights. Anyone who agrees with me, please keep an eye out for fights where you see an opportunity for this. I bet all of us put together can definetly find something at some point.

I was discussing this same strategy for the same fight with high5 the other day. I agree.

[High5]

I was discussing this same strategy for the same fight with high5 the other day. I agree.

Confirmed!

[poopoo333]

I was discussing this same strategy for the same fight with high5 the other day. I agree.

Confirmed!

Were you guys cybering as well?

[MMA_scientist]

Well Dos anjos will probably try to stand if he gets taken down. I am sure he knows as well as we do he isn't subbing George.

RDA says he expects to fight to fight on the ground, and he think his BJJ is better. I don't know who is a better grappler, George seems to have more stamina though, and he is also bigger, so I expect him to win the ground battle. But George is not some world class grappler and neither is RDA. I am not sure who is more skilled in the short term, but I do think George will wear him down in a grappling match.

http://www.sherdog.com/videos/recent/Dos-Anjos-My-BJJ-is-Superior-to-Sotiropoulos-3122

[Thewisemann]

Tito is gonna win. Split Dec. Watch.