UFC 132 July 2nd
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I looked at the last 4 events last night and out of approx 44 fights (88 fighters) there were 3 subs(I think) in those 4 events , so recently you could have just parlayed pretty much any fighter and won a "not by sub" bet . I have no idea what the ratio normally is or if 1 sub an event is normal I just know the info for the last 4 events.2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
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Yea when tito subbed him, I second guessed myself because i was pretty sure i put not bader by sub. Anyhow bader made a rookie mistake in going for that takedown immediately. Had ortiz been in the same spot, I think he's smart enough to protect his neck in addition to bader probably not goin for the sub.Comment
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Yea when tito subbed him, I second guessed myself because i was pretty sure i put not bader by sub. Anyhow bader made a rookie mistake in going for that takedown immediately. Had ortiz been in the same spot, I think he's smart enough to protect his neck in addition to bader probably not goin for the sub.I heart cockComment
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If you're laying 5 to win 1, you just have to win 6 of every 7 to show a profit. It seems like it's probably doable over the long term. When I refund my 5dimes account (as I'm hoping to do next month) I'm going to look into a little more.I heart cockComment
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I haven't checked, but they do seem to hit a good deal if you're smart about your choices.
If you're laying 5 to win 1, you just have to win 6 of every 7 to show a profit. It seems like it's probably doable over the long term. When I refund my 5dimes account (as I'm hoping to do next month) I'm going to look into a little more.
I'd be interested to see how many subs happen for each event over the last two years................you should get on that2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
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I think for the most part, I will stick to "not by subs" and try to stray away from "not by (T)KO" props for these parlays. You don't have to factor in shit like early stoppages and the "fluke punch" and things like that. Also some of the lines are very skewed... You get the other ones in -1000 to -3000 range, but you get not Guillard by sub @-977. That makes no sense at all. Guillard hasn't subbed anybody since 2003, and it's pretty damn obvious his gameplan would be to strike or get back up to his feet and avoid being on the ground with Roller if it went there. I think we just have to make sure we don't force the bets every card to get better odds on the parlay, there will always be next time.
Future "not by sub" props that will be used by me in the future:
Not Rich Franklin by sub
Not Jorge Rivera by sub
Not Dan Hardy by sub
Not Ben Henderson by sub
Not Duane Ludwig by sub
Not Okami by sub
Not Brendan Schaub by sub
Not Rampage by sub
I think those are pretty close to "locks".
For UFC 133 I am reluctant on a prop bet for Belfort/Akiyama and Davis/EvansComment
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