2011 Off topic thread(basketball,movies,etc whatever)

[SPX]

Well apparently I had an edge of 100%. But hindsight is 20/20.

[flyinggogoplata]

not exactly.

[SPX]

You'll have to explain yourself.

[flyinggogoplata]

probability of winning the bet divided by probability of the bet winning at the odds taken minus 1 would be your edge.

[SPX]

My point is that the shit happened so my edge was 100%.

It's like if you're playing blackjack and the next 4 cards are K, 7, K, 10. Well you may not know it but your edge on the next hand is 100% because it has a 100% probability of winning.

[flyinggogoplata]

no because there was no way to bet when your edge was at 100%. Just because the bet won it is irrelevant to your edge at the time the bet was made.

Outcome bias – the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

[flyinggogoplata]

...

[SPX]

Nevermind.

[flyinggogoplata]

Wait am I wrong here? If you said your edge was a 100% which it was once the outcome was known the only way to make a bet with an edge of 100% is to place the bet after the outcome is known.

[SPX]

I was just making a semi-joke that if you win a bet then you had an edge of 100%.

[flyinggogoplata]

Is the entire universe a mathematical model in which time and space exist inside of or does time and space exist with the universe inside?

[SPX]

Also, I'm no statistician but I have no idea how one might go about actually figuring up the edge on a bet like that.

[SPX]

Is the entire universe a mathematical model in which time and space exist inside of or does time and space exist with the universe inside?

I don't know, but I think that consciousness might be limitless and timeless and that the brain is merely a temporary receiver that channels consciousness for a time and then releases it back out into multi-verse at the point of death.

[flyinggogoplata]

Also, I'm no statistician but I have no idea how one might go about actually figuring up the edge on a bet like that.

It would just come down to your modeling and or handicapping. A model can be built with simple high school math. These bookies are just doing the same handicapping with the juice and limits on their side.

[flyinggogoplata]

I don't know, but I think that consciousness might be limitless and timeless and that the brain is merely a temporary receiver that channels consciousness for a time and then releases it back out into multi-verse at the point of death.

sounds like you subscribe to exotic matter.