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2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u -
I like Pelligrino and Almeida to win, but I like Pelligrino and Pyle at the current odds.
Tibau is game and huge. He will probably have a stand-up edge and I would say the grappling is about even. Tibau wins with takedowns usually, but he has not had success against wrestlers. Wrestlers know how to negate a size advantage. Since he came to the UFC, he has lost to every fighter he has faced with a wrestling base- Griffin, Stevenson, Miller (even Guillard- who he really beat IMO). Pelligrino is a strong wrestler and he has cardio and heart for days. I think it is a very close fight, with Tibau being more skilled but Pelligrino being more gritty. It is either no-bet or Pelligrino for me.
I see Almeida/Pyle similarly. Almeida is a better grappler, Pyle should be a better striker. Takedowns are a wash, but it does look like Pyle has gottem much better in that area (judging from the Hathaway fight). Pyle is actually the older man, which surprised me (I always think Almeida is older than he is). If Pyle had the right game plan he could win it- if he came out and tries to put Almeida on his back he can win a decision. But if he comes in to sprawl, he is likely going to get put on his back, where Almeida will probably dominate him. Also, Almeida tends to gas a little bit, and Pyle doesn't. Pyle could take over later in the fight. I think Almeida will get it done, but if I were betting, I would take Pyle.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Thank you Scientist, I was waiting for your opinion on those fights, since both of them will probably be grappling matches. Usually you are pretty much always right in that kind of match upsComment
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Thanks, but to be honest, I really think both fights could go either way. Tibau and Almeida should have the skill advantages, but they both gas and are fighting guys that are gritty veterans with heart. If Pyle comes in with the wrong gameplan, I think Almeida will blwo through him. If he comes in looking for takedowns, he can win. If I knew Pyle's gameplan was to wrestle, I would take him, but he likes to be on his back, and I doubt he can handle Almeida from top position. If he comes to sprawl, he will probably find a little success, but I think Almeida will get him down enough.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Bet's I like so far. Faber, Benavidez, Marquardt, JJ/Shogun does not go the distance, Mirko Cro cop.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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What do you think about Faber and Benavidez?1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I am looking at an Alpha Male parlay right now, Benevidez/Faber. I like a lot of the underdogs too... I think CC, Shogun, Pyle, Pelligrino, and Marshall are all bettable. I don't know, I might just do "not Wineland by submission/not D. Miller by sub/not Shalorus by sub" and let my parlay roll on...2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I agree with you on Almeida/pyle and Pellegrino/Tibau. I was thinking about a bet on Tibau until I noticed that he lost all his fights against wrestlers. All of them were smaller than him as well. Griffin and Stevenson are tiny. Neither one are good bets IMO. Anything can happen in them.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I think they will both win, but I am little nervous about both fights. What if Uriah decides to stand and bang like he has been doing? Loveland is pretty dynamic too, but I think Benevidez will get it done (I actually think Benevidez is better than Faber). I think Benevidez will catch a choke on Loveland. I am little more worried about Faber... I mean, was Mike Brown ever that good? Or was Faber just fighting weak opposition? He had some trouble with a lot of the guys he fought, even Pulver lasted a full 5 with him. But the flip side is that Wineland is in that group too, I don't think he is very good.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Yeah thats funny I actually agree with you about Benavidez, I think he is really really good. I was hugely impressed with his last win. I feel exactly what your saying about Faber, a lot of his is hype. The WEC hyped him as their poster boy. He doesn't have any huge wins but I do think Mike Brown is good. I read somewhere that he was having some sort of medical issues that he thought caused his losses. That might be bullshit but it could be true. He looked like shit in the Yahya fight, like he had no energy/will to fight back. Something was off there. Either way he is a solid wrestler with a bb in bjj and heavy hands.
I think Faber will take this guy down and sub him but who knows what will happen. It is a bet that I regret taking at the odds I did. He opened at -195 but I didn't get him until -420. I parlayed him with JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance. That is my base for this event, I am parlaying just about everything with that. I see no way in hell that fight goes for 25 minutes.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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yeah, but Brown got KO'd my Manvel way early on... I don't know about Faber, I think he is going to win but I don't think he is that great of a fighter. But Wineland isn't a full time fighter and his time is over IMO. Faber should take him down.
I agree, Shogun/Jones can't make it 25 mins grappling at Jones' pace, one of them will gas out and get pounded out or subbed. Jones gassed in his only 3 rounded and we know Shogun gets tired grappling as well. In a grappling oriented match, it would be surprising to see it go 25 mins at LHW with ANY 2 fighters. But Jones and Shogun are both finishers and Jones pushes a fast pace, it is not going to make it 25 mins, I fully agree.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I think JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance is the best bet on the card. No way in hell it goes 25 minutes. I don't Jones will gas either, at least until the fourth or 5th round1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I brought this up before, Jones was very very new to MMA when he had the 3 round fight your referring to in the UFC. He had only been competing for about 2 years, maybe less. I think his cardio then is def not equal to his cardio now. He has been training with a professional camp for a while now. That should make a big difference. On top of that, he is just coming off a camp and going into another one. Shogun has also had a long layoff. I expect Shogun to get fatigued if anyone. We'll see what happens. Either Shogun gets a ko/sub early on or Jones will wear him out and TKO him1 unit = 300 $Comment
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