UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

sbjj... I don't think betting 20% on any fight is a good idea. I don't think there is a difference between doing it on a fave or dog though. The issue is not THE LINE, the issue is YOUR LINE. If your line is -400 and the actual line is -250, I would bet the shit out of that. Same thing with this one. If you think Cain should be more than -150 (60%) and he is currently at +135 (40%), that needs to bet and bet big. Similarly, if a fighter is at -300 (75%) and you think he should be -900 (90%) then you also need to bet the shit out of that...

So it is not that I think a favorite is automatically 90% to win. The issue is when the favorite is more likely to win that the line indicates. There is no difference between betting 30 to win 5 and 20 to win 30 if the value is there, because the risk of loss (in your specific assessment) is the same.

In any event, if you are not using a 100u bankroll, then this is all moot. I was just questioning the wisdom of betting 1/5 of your bankroll on one fight, which you are not doing.

I disagree with this. As good as any capper believes he is, he should never begin to think he is God. You are going to be wrong all the time. There is a big difference in it because when you hit a rough patch and lose 3 out of 4 faves, you are destroyed real quick. If you lose 3 out of 4 even lines, you are in a much better position.

it is interesting Scientist, you continually try to figure out the magic of it all. But if you really believe in yourself that much...why have any rules at all. Just bet every fight no matter the odds and as much as you want. I do not believe in myself that much, so i have rules, rules that I believe keep me out of trouble. And with the rules I follow, if I can hit 55%, i will still make a nice profit. the last couple of months, I am hitting like 30% and I have still made a very small profit. Without my rules, I would be down pretty big.

Of course this could all go up in smoke if I lose my Cain and BJ bets. But I am confident enough that if I bet(hard) the 4 to 6 fights under my rules each year I will end up ahead.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.

Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.

As for it being MY rule. Yes, it is, and I said nowhere that everyone had to follow it.

As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

i cant believe anyone is making a big play on this fight

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I have rules. I just don't follow them. One rule that I do stick to pretty well though is never going over -400. If I see a guy that I feel is 80% to win, I will do a max bet on him regardless of whether his line is -200 or +200. I would be inclined to bet more on the +200 guy because there would be more value.

That said, I rarely see a dog that I feel is an overwhelming favorite. Dos Anjos to Etim comes to mind. Koscheck to Rumble as well. I bet pretty bog on Kos as a dog. I think I went smaller on Dos Anjos.

I see the as many or more fights at -300 that I think should be steeper. Looking at my past bets in that range (it has been a while because I lowered my cap to -250), Kongo/Buentello was a 6u bet for me @ -340. I felt Kongo would win 9/10 fights with Buentello. I put 5u on Reis @ -315, again, I felt Reis would win at least 80% of the time.
The best example was Pitbull Friere/Romero- I really felt that Pitbull was going to sub him and it was a STEAL @ -280. He should have been -1500. I called the exact round and sub for that fight (round 1 heelhook), I put 6u there, but would have been comfortable with more.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.

Bitch, you don't know me.

Maybe you just got on my bad side when you called me a liar.

Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.

You said he will bet "ANY" fight as long as there's value. That's not true. You don't have any idea how he bets.

As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.

I didn't make any judgement. I was just pointing out that if you can't pick winners, then the line doesn't matter. You'll go broke, whether slowly or quickly. If you're good at capping though then choosing enough -500 winners to turn a profit in the long run shouldn't be a big problem.

Also, as for your comment about "betting 3 or 4 big favorites and losing" leading to some insurmountable loss, if you have a 100u bankroll and bet 5u on each of those fights then you'll be down 15% or 20% of your total roll. That's hardly career threatening.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

i cant believe anyone is making a big play on this fight

I can respect that.

but this is the type of fight I always make a big play on. A slight dog to slight fave. that I think has good value.

i look at Cain having advantages and Brock really having none.

Striking...clear Cain...cain also mixes his strikes up very well with leg kicks.

grappling(BJJ)...pretty unknown, but my head tells me cain.

wrestling...wash...Cain has speed and technique, while Brock has size and strength.

Cardio...I'd give it to cain because he keeps a very fast pace, and Brock seems to like a slow grinding fight.

Chin and Heart...Both seem to have them in spades. But I worry a bit in the way Brock has reacted when he has been hit.

I just see no reason why Cain is the dog here.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.

Bitch, you don't know me.

Maybe you just got on my bad side when you called me a liar.

Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.

You said he will bet "ANY" fight as long as there's value. That's not true. You don't have any idea how he bets.

As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.

I didn't make any judgement. I was just pointing out that if you can't pick winners, then the line doesn't matter. You'll go broke, whether slowly or quickly. If you're good at capping though then choosing enough -500 winners to turn a profit in the long run shouldn't be a big problem.

Also, as for your comment about "betting 3 or 4 big favorites and losing" leading to some insurmountable loss, if you have a 100u bankroll and bet 5u on each of those fights then you'll be down 15% or 20% of your total roll. That's hardly career threatening.

Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.

must have missed where I called you a liar. or maybe you just read to much into something.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.

Bitch, you don't know me.

Maybe you just got on my bad side when you called me a liar.

Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.

You said he will bet "ANY" fight as long as there's value. That's not true. You don't have any idea how he bets.

As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.

I didn't make any judgement. I was just pointing out that if you can't pick winners, then the line doesn't matter. You'll go broke, whether slowly or quickly. If you're good at capping though then choosing enough -500 winners to turn a profit in the long run shouldn't be a big problem.

Also, as for your comment about "betting 3 or 4 big favorites and losing" leading to some insurmountable loss, if you have a 100u bankroll and bet 5u on each of those fights then you'll be down 15% or 20% of your total roll. That's hardly career threatening.

LOL, looks like I had the child part right.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

it is interesting Scientist, you continually try to figure out the magic of it all. But if you really believe in yourself that much...why have any rules at all. Just bet every fight no matter the odds and as much as you want. I do not believe in myself that much, so i have rules, rules that I believe keep me out of trouble. And with the rules I follow, if I can hit 55%, i will still make a nice profit. the last couple of months, I am hitting like 30% and I have still made a very small profit. Without my rules, I would be down pretty big.

Of course this could all go up in smoke if I lose my Cain and BJ bets. But I am confident enough that if I bet(hard) the 4 to 6 fights under my rules each year I will end up ahead.

I have rules. I am just saying "theoretically" and mathmatically it is no different. As a practical matter, the volatility will be too much and you will lose all your money. Just like, a martingale is "theoretically" perfect. It would always win if you had an unlimited bankroll and no house limits. But as it were, favorites lose, I am wrong on my assessments all the time, so I set caps on my bets (-400 and 5u, 6u in special cases). I do break the rules though, which is my main problem.

I am not trying to figure out the magic... there is no magic. I am trying to figure out how to optimally manage my bankroll for limited volatilty and risk of ruin while still allowing enough risk to see decent returns. There are plenty of mechanical systems out there (like the Kelly systems)...

I think you are confusing what I do, with what I am saying is possible.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.

No, I get it perfectly.

Let me ask you this: I'm 5'6", 140 lbs., with minimal martial arts training. If I personally fought Mike Tyson in his prime and you were offered a line of -1000, would you bet it, or would you worry that I'd throw a haymaker that would KO him?

I assume you would bet it.

So there you go.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

LOL, looks like I had the child part right.

This is not the way to make friends around here.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.

must have missed where I called you a liar. or maybe you just read to much into something.

As long as you hit more than you are supposed to, you win. I don't know what else to tell you about that. I will never believe that betting where there is value is wrong. You would be better off telling me that big favorites never have value because of the inherent variables in MMA (which I sort of buy to a certain extent).

yeah, if you make huge bets, you are making a mistake in managing your funds...


as for your feud, cmon guys. We are all on the same side here. I don't want to see southbay-I mean sbjj- get banned because X is pissed. This kind of discourse is going to make us all better and at least consider if the bets we are making are good or not... (even if sbjj is wrong on this particular issue)

I actually think we all kind of agree here. Making bets too big for your bankroll is bad and will lead to your demise. We just disagree in that getting a lot of little wins and a big loss has that much effect as opposed winning 1.5 and then losing 1... it all washes out after a while.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Not even close to 1/5 of my bankroll.

How many units is your bankroll? Sorry if you've told us before, but I just don't have any context for a bet given in "units" without knowing that.

I think where we are disagreeing is on the question of what types of value it is possible to predict. Personally, I think it is easier to predict that GSP has at least a 90% chance of beating Hardy than it is to say that Cain has more than a 60% chance of beating Lesnar.

However, I agree that the slight dog -> to favorite bets can be some of the most profitable, and often justify pretty big bets. I'll do that as well if I'm feeling particularly sure of myself. I had 10 U on Shogun to beat Machida, and I definitely wish I had bet earlier and harder on Carwin to beat Mir.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.

No, I get it perfectly.

Let me ask you this: I'm 5'6", 140 lbs., with minimal martial arts training. If I personally fought Mike Tyson in his prime and you were offered a line of -1000, would you bet it, or would you worry that I'd throw a haymaker that would KO him?

I assume you would bet it.

So there you go.

Yeah but Tyson wasn't fighting Matt Serra size midgets, so there you go

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah but Tyson wasn't fighting Matt Serra size midgets, so there you go

You see southbay, we already have enough assholes around here. We don't need anymore.