UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Minnesota is a solid wrestling state. Aside from that, his wrestling has looked pretty good to me in MMA. He took down Emerson several times, Emerson has really underrated takedown defense. He also put Tavares down a few times (even though he would have lost without the point deduction).
Winner did stuff Oliveira several times, but I think Lentz can drag it down and be competitve standing. Lentz was going blow for blow with Emerson.

Lentz is solid, and Winner is nothing special IMO. I am probably going to join on that play.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Update: Lentz actually was a scholrship wrestler for the Univerity of Minnesota. I don't think he was ever a varsity wrestler, but it looks like he wrestled 2 years there. UM is obviously a powerhouse wrestling school, one of the best programs.

from niklentz.com:
"While wrestling for the University of Minnesota, Nik Lentz realized his genuine talent and love for the sport and decided to take his wrestling fad to a new level. In 2005, Lentz began to train for MMA."

it also says something similar on several other sites

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Lentz and Winner have a common opponent in Oliveira. Winner did better against him, stuffing his shots and just jabbing him on the feet. Lentz went for broke, got taken down several times and had several takedowns and submission attempts of his own. They were about even on the feet. Cameron Dollar took Winner down in their TUF fight.

This fight definitely comes down to Winner's takedown defense, and Lentz is better on the ground for sure. I don't think Lentz is going to be getting many takedowns, but I think he has the goods for a few.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Lentz and Winner have a common opponent in Oliveira. Winner did better against him, stuffing his shots and just jabbing him on the feet. Lentz went for broke, got taken down several times and had several takedowns and submission attempts of his own. They were about even on the feet. Cameron Dollar took Winner down in their TUF fight.

This fight definitely comes down to Winner's takedown defense, and Lentz is better on the ground for sure. I don't think Lentz is going to be getting many takedowns, but I think he has the goods for a few.

Yea, I would be real careful about going to heavy on Lentz(especially at the current price). I believe Winners TDD is quite a bit better than it was on TUF. In fact, I do not believe he is even the same fighter period. I think his current camp is a very good one. The fighters seem to be improving at a quick pace there.

[Havis Jr]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Team Rough House fighter are pretty notorious for having terrible tdd. At least in the past, I don't know how it is now, but I can't imagine its that much better.

3u Lentz +110

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Winner didn't outclass Oliviera, he beat him but not by a lot. Winner rocked O a few times but O wobbled Winner at the end of the fight.

I noticed Andre winner has three wins ending via strikes. His first one was a submission to strikes, then he tko'd a guy with a 47/33 record. Lastly he TKO's Roli Delgado. I don't think Roli is really that great personally.

I don't think he is likely to KO/TKO Lentz on the feet. I'm not saying it's impossible, anything is possible but I think it's unlikely. That said, Lentz should be able to drag Winner down once a round..I think that's pretty likely. Andre is a guy with no real wrestling base, thats how that usually goes.


Striking: Winner by ???.. a decent amount? a little?
Wrestling: All Nik Lentz
BJJ: Lentz has the distinct advantage here. Only going by record but that still says something.

Lentz is a lot more well rounded. The gap on the feet isn't huge as far as I understand it. Please correct me if I am wrong. I would like to know.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

^^ That's pretty much how I see it. I give Winner an edge on his feet, but not enough to end the fight.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Penn just hit -310 on Bookmaker. . .

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Don't bet Penn. Frankie has already beaten him..and it wasn't by some fluke ko or a come from behind submission like Silva. He outstruck him and out wrestled him(small amount of Wrestling) for the win. I mean Penn can easily win but this is definetly a toss up.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Don't bet Penn. Frankie has already beaten him..and it wasn't by some fluke ko or a come from behind submission like Silva. He outstruck him and out wrestled him(small amount of Wrestling) for the win. I mean Penn can easily win but this is definetly a toss up.

It was very close. The decision easily could've gone to Penn.

And Penn is Penn.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Penn has been beaten before and it can happen again. If the line were even I would say go for it but he's at -300 or so. Thats not a great bet. I give him the edge over Frankie but I would not be suprised at all to see Frankie dance around him again for 5 rounds jabbing like crazy and getting the W.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Fight probably ends violently in the first round, and that definitely favors Penn. For -310 though, not me.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

I don't think it is a coin toss. But I would pay more than like -170 for Penn. Even if Penn should have won the decision, you have to think the value is with Frankie. Penn has to put him away quick and dirty, otherwise, I think Edgar can outwork him again. I am actually going to drop a little something on Edgar, even though I feel he is less than 50%.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

At +260 he isnt bad. He is probably a decent amount higher for Win via Decision. It's good having 5 dimes for bets like this. Especially when Jon Fitch fights.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

Penn has been beaten before and it can happen again. If the line were even I would say go for it but he's at -300 or so. Thats not a great bet. I give him the edge over Frankie but I would not be suprised at all to see Frankie dance around him again for 5 rounds jabbing like crazy and getting the W.

Yeah Penn was beaten before at 155. Except that was in 2002 to one of the best Lightweights of all time, and certainly the best in the world at that time. Lets put this in perspective. After he lost to GSP BJ Penn went on to tear both Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez new assholes.