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can't see Bonnar opening as the favorite. I see it opening close but Sos as a slight favorite, probably will hold value in his opening line nonethe less. i see Sos taking Bonnar down and holding him there as long as he wants.
I went out and looked at what he has actually done. He is 5-5 in the ufc. He has only stopped Forrest. 2 of those wins were split decisions (I think he beat Chuck clearly, but Vera could have gone either way). He is basically a decision fighter... and not a very consistent one.
I took an odds heavy approach. If the "good" Jardine shows up, I still don't know that he can win. Bader should be able to score takedowns at will, which should allow him to steal a round when he needs to. I figure there is a very good chance this is going to the cards, in which case I think Bader will win with his takedown advantage. I think there is just as good a chance that Bader KO's Jardine as vice-versa, even though Jardine is a better striker.
With the odds being so close, I think there is enough advantages for Bader to make a bet. So I did.
I haven't bet on this fight. I think its high variance but I think Bader's side is the only one worthy of an argument. Bader has more tools and more ways to win this fight. I'm positive he will come in much better shape than his fight w/Schafer. Bader tore his PCL and MCL in the first round of his fight against Marrero and took on Shafer 6 months later. I think he will come into this fight 100% healthy, hopefully, and grind Jardine down w/take downs or catch Jardine w/his hands hanging
Glad to hear your input. I am really regretting making this bet now. I took a beating at 109 and have a tendency to get maniacally aggressive after a loss. This fight does not fit my profile for a bet at all, I allowed myself to be convinced.
I put a parlay for 3u to win 21.3u on Nogueira/Velasquez to go over 2.5 rounds, Stevenson/Bader/Rothwell to win. More of a value bet than anything, I'm not liking alot of the fights other than the Lytle/Foster and Silva/Bisping affairs. I might pop some down on them later on.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
I'm liking the fact that Dolloway is that big of an underdog when Goran Reljic was never supposed to fight again ever... I think CB lets Goran take him down and then we'll see how well that back has really healed when CB starts putting the pressure on with the threat of his peruvian necktie that he likes so much. Wouldn't be much of an upset for Dolloway to win
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
I also dropped .5u on Foster at +170. He looked really good against Larson, who was the heavy favorite to win that one.
Lytle is a good fighter, but kind of middle of the road. Foster looks like a promising up and comer. I think all of the value has probably been bet out of the line at this point, though.
I went bananas on 110, totally out of my usual mode.
I think CB has a lot of value. Goran just laid flat on his back when Gouveia grounded him. He has been out 2 years. he just had major back surgery. I had to toss a U on CB
Dude, I want to see that movie for serious! Michael Jai White is an awesome actor and I think that shit's going to be awesome. Did you ever see Blood and Bone? If not, you should check it out.
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