UFC 109 Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Zak got his ninja back!

Gotta break the Ninja out when i got a bet on a fight!

I might get on Rolles too. My guy doesnt even have him on his sheet...LOL

Waiting for his line. I would probably take him up to -400.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Everyone staying away from Swick/Thiago?

I may be on Thiago

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Just out of curiosity, why Sonnen?

Nate will probanly win, but with his wrestling Sonnen could grind out a decision.

Thats a fair point. I was just wondering because Nate's Wrestling is also very good, not to mention he's the much bigger fighter and has far and away better standup.

Okami is also a really good wrestler. I dont think that Sonnen takes this any other way than decision, so I like the +430 or whatever it was.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 109 Discussion

The Coleman -Couture fight will go much like the Coleman-Rua II fight went imo

But Couture wont be gassed like Rua was.

Coleman may gas but its not going to be like the Rua fight that you are thinking. For that fight Coleman had to cut 30-40 pounds to get to 205 in a very short period of time. Coleman thought he was fighting HW so he was 235+ at the time he took the fight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109 Discussion

IMO, that Rua/Coleman fight wouldnt have been compentitive had Rua not been coming off double knee surgery with no cardio.

Coleman wouldnt have been around long enough to gas.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Added Rolles gracie @ -475 to my bets for 5U. I really should have moved earlier on this, but I got caught offguard because I thought he was fighting Madsen and did not want to bet on that matchup.

In any event, it violates my -400 rule, but oh well- I really think the line should be like -1200. Beltran is a can.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Added Rolles gracie @ -475 to my bets for 5U. I really should have moved earlier on this, but I got caught offguard because I thought he was fighting Madsen and did not want to bet on that matchup.

In any event, it violates my -400 rule, but oh well- I really think the line should be like -1200. Beltran is a can.

He's 10-3 with a 2nd round TKO win over Houston Alexander and he's a can?

My, that term gets thrown around so loosely these days. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Added Rolles gracie @ -475 to my bets for 5U. I really should have moved earlier on this, but I got caught offguard because I thought he was fighting Madsen and did not want to bet on that matchup.

In any event, it violates my -400 rule, but oh well- I really think the line should be like -1200. Beltran is a can.

He's 10-3 with a 2nd round TKO win over Houston Alexander and he's a can?

My, that term gets thrown around so loosely these days. . .

I was sort of kidding with the can remark but...
I guess you value a win over Houston Alexander more than I do. Houston is pretty horrible IMO- A 38 year old wild brawler with a glass chin. Beltran has only beaten 3 guys with winning records. Most of the guys on his record are like 0-1 or 1-2. He recently has a couple better wins, but he still looks like he just fell off the barstool and landed in the cage. 1st round submission.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

I was sort of kidding with the can remark but...
I guess you value a win over Houston Alexander more than I do. Houston is pretty horrible IMO- A 38 year old wild brawler with a glass chin. Beltran has only beaten 3 guys with winning records. Most of the guys on his record are like 0-1 or 1-2. He recently has a couple better wins, but he still looks like he just fell off the barstool and landed in the cage. 1st round submission.

And Rolles has beat. . .?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

No one, but he has accomplishments outside mma in bjj and judo that give you an idea of his skill set.

Its like saying Brock Lesnar would not have been a favorite over Beltran after his 1-0 start. We know what he brings. He was a big athletic wrestler, and based on his wrestling pedigree and his 1 win, we knew that he was capabel of beating pretty much any lower tier opponent/

We also know what Rolles brings- a lifetime of "vale tudo" training and world class bjj. He is also going to be favored over all but the most competitive HWs.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Fair enough, but when you're MMA record is so sparse I think that -455 is a little ridiculous if for no other reason than a lot of competitors don't make the transition well from other combat sports to MMA.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 bets

Initially I held off, because I wanted to see him take a punch. BUt after watching Rolles and Beltran... Beltran just throws haymakers, playground style. He is fat (he looks like he could make 205, maybe even 185) and he had one week to get ready.

The I saw that Rolles is no fool. He doesn't mess around... he goes for the takedown early and often.

Of course, there is a chance he gets punched out, but I think it is like 10% max.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 109 Discussion

UFC 109 should be called "UFC 109 :retirement" instead of relentless imo

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109 Discussion

I am looking forward to this card more than almost any other. I was pretty excited for BJ/Diego... but I am psyched for this card. I am a jiu jitsu fanboy though.

I got my team in the superbowl and my boys fighting Saturday. I might not leave the basement all weekend. I am probably going to just take cooler down and put a sign on the door for the pizza man "follow crumbs to basement."

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 109 bets

So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u

Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u

I now have a full unit on Sonnen wining a decision. 1u to win 5u