UFC 156

[Thewisemann]

I LOVE Edgar here. The line is insane, i definatly favor Edgar. 15u on Edgar.

[poopoo333]

I LOVE Edgar here. The line is insane, i definatly favor Edgar. 15u on Edgar.

Nice. I have 4u on him @ +200 and 2u on him by decision @ +385.

[Thewisemann]

I have 1u by dec at +350. But I can see him getting a stoppage on a gasses Aldo in the fourth or 5th rd.

[Thewisemann]

I'm on Reem, McCall, and Maia too. And Volkmann if his odds are not ridiculous.

[MMA_scientist]

Main card (PPV):
Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar (FW Title)
I favor Aldo here. But @ +200, I will take Edgar. I think he has an almost even chance, and he is 2:1. No brainer here, the bet is Edgar.

Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Evans is going to win by decision. It is going to happen. He is -485 right now, and that is way too steep for my taste, but probably about right. Rashad is just the best fighter at 205 aside from Jones. Nog is good too, but his only out is to land a big shot standing and hope Rashad doesn't take him down.

Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Silva
Don't know. Probably Overeem will KO him. Bigfoot is not a guard flopper, and that is how Werdum survived IMO, by dropping to the ground any time Overeem tried to punch him. Overeem is -350 and that is too much for me due to the possible de-roiding of Overeem and lay off. I really don't see what Bigfoot is going to do to him though. Overeem is a solid grappler in his own right and he is better standing. But to hell with -350.

Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia*
I think Maia will get it done probably via decision with a few takedowns. I don't think Fitch is better standing, and he definitely isn't better on the ground. Fitch also has a clinching style of takedowns, which is Maia's style too. I really think Maia can take Fitch down as much as vice versa. Maia has the submission out, Fitch doesn't. Neither man has any power standing or with their GNP. Fitch has the cardio though, and I don't know if Maia can keep up his pace, he definitely couldn't at 185, he may have better cardio at 170. Fitch is almost guaranteed to win rd 3 though because Maia almost always takes rd 3 off. Maia is +150, so that is a bet for me. There is a great chance that Maia wins rd 1 and then loses rd 2 and 3, so if you are on Fitch, I think the points spread may be a good idea. This is going to be a close fight or Maia is going to dominate. Fitch is not going to dominate. *I always bet Maia and think he is going to win, so don't take anything I say seriously here.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall
I think Benevidez is a better fighter in every regard and will win a close decision. I don't know about that -250 line though, probably closer fight than that.

Preliminary Card (FX):
Evan Dunham vs. Gleison Tibau
Really close fight, Tibau has better power, Dunham has better reach and jab. Grappling is a wash, takedowns are a wash. Fight goes to a decision is my thought right now. I can't pick a winner.

Jay Hieron vs. Tyron Woodley
I think Hieron will pull off a mild upset, I doubt Woodley can get consistent takedowns on him.

Bobby Green vs. Jacob Volkmann
Volkmann will win by decision or submission. I will probably bet that to -300.

Yves Edwards vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg
don't know, VF is the rising prospect, but Edwards is so inconsistent it is hard to bet him. Edwards will prob be favored, and I wouldn't bet that.

Preliminary Card (Facebook): I don't know who these guys are.
Chico Camus vs. Dustin Kimura
Edwin Figueroa vs. Francisco Rivera

Sure bets: Maia, Edgar- both + odds, both will be small bets
probable bets: Evans/Volkmann parlay- this will probably be my big play- or possibly Volkmann straight up depending on his line
possible bets- Hieron if +200, Dunham/Tibau goes teh distance
magic parlay- Not fitch ITD/not Mccall by sub/Not rashad by sub/not overeem by sub
2012 parlay- not fitch by sub, possibly not rashad by sub

[poopoo333]

Love this:

probable bets: Evans/Volkmann parlay- this will probably be my big play- or possibly Volkmann straight up depending on his line

[edman5555]

Any thought in playing evans by decision?

[MMA_scientist]

Any thought in playing evans by decision?

yeah. Nog really doesn't get stopped... Rashad by decision is -183 and his overall line is -260. I don't know if it is worth it. I am going to wait and see Volkmann's line. But yeah, that's how he wins IMO. I suppose he could catch him standing or get a tKO on the ground... but probably worth the improvement on the line. I really don't like betting distance props. I tried it out last card because poopoo has been finding value, and then I got burned by Pettis.

[SPX]

Holy shit, Scientist just broke down a whole fucking card!

I can't remember the last time that happened! Are you coming back to betting?

[MMA_scientist]

Holy shit, Scientist just broke down a whole fucking card!

I can't remember the last time that happened! Are you coming back to betting?

I have been betting a little more lately. I am trying to contribute. I think there are a lot of fights coming up that are very bettable, so I am trying to cash in.

[SPX]

Indeed. Well good job. I think this is the year we all need to try to make record profits.

And I like your Rashad/Volkmann parlay. Should cash.

[MMA_scientist]

Indeed. Well good job. I think this is the year we all need to try to make record profits.

And I like your Rashad/Volkmann parlay. Should cash.

I don't know about me having a banner year or anything, I will be content to clear 20u. That is pretty much my expectation for a year these days. That is 40% ROI... better than anything, anywhere, and I think just as safe or safer.

[poopoo333]

yeah. Nog really doesn't get stopped... Rashad by decision is -183 and his overall line is -260. I don't know if it is worth it. I am going to wait and see Volkmann's line. But yeah, that's how he wins IMO. I suppose he could catch him standing or get a tKO on the ground... but probably worth the improvement on the line. I really don't like betting distance props. I tried it out last card because poopoo has been finding value, and then I got burned by Pettis.

Sorry

[MMA_scientist]

Sorry

well I do blame you. So, you owe me $200. Paypal it to me.

[edman5555]

Natal came through. After he tried to be k1 natal and got dropped.