UFC 151

[Cleveland]

Hello all!

Brand new to the forum. Thanks for the invite from Sherdog (IWS).

I use 5 dimes and the odds aren't out, but I wanted to see where everyone was at for 151.

The current card main card is:

Bones/Hendo
Heiron/Ellenburger
Siver/Yagin
Hallman/Tavares

Picks:
Outside of a miracle overhand, Bones should wrap this up in the first 2 rounds. Even if Bones was content to play at range, Hendo doesn't have the cardio to make any splashes beyond the second (based on the Shields fight). Also given the danger of Dan's one punch ability, I don't think Jon will toy with him like he did Rashad.

Heiron hasn't had a relevant win in since beating Jake back in 06' Jake is coming off a loss to the Hitman in a fight he was dominating until his suspect cardio kicked in. Heiron would become a nightmare if he could get out of the first round but I honestly don't see it.

Siver looked great against Nunes and is finally fighting in the right weight class. Even having said that, he was looking great at 155 until he ran into Cerrone. He's had problems with submissions in the past but there's nothing to worry about there with Yagin. Yagin is coming of the best win of his career, but Hominick has looked shot since the fight with Aldo so I'm not placing too much stake in that. If Mark had been more aggressive it's also possible that he could have closed the fight out in the third.

Thiago tends to fight to the level of his opponents which is a bit concerning, however Hallman has looked terrible at 155. Hallman's wrestling and veteran savvy have kept him relevant but the Ebersole fight really sticks out to me in looking at this one. Tavares has shown he's able to stay on his feet, went toe to toe with Stout coming out no worse for the wear and is a jiu-jitsu specialist. This fight is the least clear but still feels pretty safe.

Depending on lines, what is everyone's thoughts?

Is there anything that I've overlooked?

[Mr. IWS]

Glad to have ya man!

Im with you on Bones. I think he wins late 2nd early 3rd via some sort of choke.

[edman5555]

I think Bones takes it but his line is shit. Hendo has been landing that overhand right mostly because he has been getting into firefights with people. Hallman was injured for the Ebersole fight. I do think Tavares can win that one but like you said his fights are usually close. I wouldnt be suprised to see Hieron do alright. He can probably stop the takedown. He could theoretically outpoint Ellenberger. That said, I wouldn't want to bet against Ellenberger solely because of his power.

[SPX]

Sup, Cleveland? Welcome.

I would disagree that Jake was Hieron's last relevant win. What about Rick Hawn?

And while I favor Siver against Yagin, I certainly wouldn't say it's a lock. Say what you will about Hominick, but Yagin really gave him the business for two rounds and busted him the fuck up. I'll probably stay away from that fight.

[Cleveland]

Yeah the line on Jon really makes that almost a senseless play, especially given that Hendo is a live dog any time he wings that big right.

With Thiago I am always more worried about his fight IQ, he is so solid that it almost seems he's willing to just see if he can out man his opponent.

The juggernaut is a very fitting name, he can instigate the clinch and throw hooks with anyone, I think the Hitman fight was an exception not a rule.

Thanks for the thoughts!

[Cleveland]

I am hesitant on Hawn, Heiron is the best competition he's fought. The judo credentials are legit, but I still haven't really seen him in with a great striker.

Heiron may have gotten away with one in the Weedman fight and Hawn brought it.

Yagin really surprised me in the Hominick fight. I'm still worried it says more about where Hominick is at this point. Even in a fight he was clearly winning, he still ended up gassed and Siver can really push the pace. I think I'm going to try to find some more Yagin fights and see if the low hooks are a trademark.

[SPX]

I am hesitant on Hawn, Heiron is the best competition he's fought. The judo credentials are legit, but I still haven't really seen him in with a great striker.

Lyman Good is a pretty good striker. I think Hawn is legit. I'm not sure how he would do in the UFC, but I respect his abilities. He's an excellent grappler who seems to have really taken to the striking game.

Yagin really surprised me in the Hominick fight. I'm still worried it says more about where Hominick is at this point. Even in a fight he was clearly winning, he still ended up gassed and Siver can really push the pace. I think I'm going to try to find some more Yagin fights and see if the low hooks are a trademark.

Time will tell on Hominick. You can't blame him for losing to Aldo and the KZ fight was way too short to really have gotten much data from. Really, the Yagin fight is the wild card here. Was Hominick not on his A game or is Yagin that good?

[poopoo333]

As awesome as it would be to see Henderson beat Jones, I just don't see it happening. I'm in agreement with you there.

I'm going to need to look at Hieron here, but I don't think it's going to be as much of a mismatch as you think.

As for Yagin/Siver, I don't know. Siver is usually in pretty close kickboxing fights and it makes his fights hard to predict.

I think Hallman will beat Tavares in an ugly fight

[poopoo333]

Been looking at Hieron. I don't believe Ellenberger will be able to outwrestle Hieron to clearly win the fight. I also think the striking will be a little close with slight edge to Ellenberger, however, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting Hieron in a striking match as he has a tendency to get tagged and does not have the best chin imo. Ellenberger hits hard, but he does lose steam after about a round and a half, so I can see Hieron making it a very close fight. It's a hard fight to predict, but I think Hieron would not be a bad bet around +200. I also think Ellenberg (T)KO prop would be worth a stab at as well.

I didn't see Hieron/Askren, but didn't Hieron show great T3D against one of the best wrestlers in MMA? If so, Ellenberger shouldn't be able to get the fight down

[Cleveland]

I'm a Hominick fan so it breaks my heart, I'm really hoping he can put it back together though.

[Cleveland]

Askren really doesn't transition well with his strikes and Jake's kill shots should make anyone blink.

I'm not sold that Jake is looking to use his wrestling for anything more than a ploy to get opponents to drop there hands so he can swing bombs. His cardio doesn't seem like it would lend itself well to a drawn out fight even if he was on top.

I'm definitely interested in the Hallman pick, I'm going to watch his recent fights again.

[poopoo333]

Yagin is +560 on some foreign book apparently. That obviously won't hold/be available to us.


I honestly don't see any fights that really stick out to me on this card:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

• Champ Jon Jones vs. Dan Henderson (for light-heavyweight title)
• Jake Ellenberger vs. Jay Hieron
• Dennis Siver vs. Eddie Yagin
• Dennis Hallman vs. Thiago Tavares
• John Lineker vs. Yasuhiro Urushitani

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)

• Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson
• Jeff Hougland vs. Takeya Mizugaki
• Tim Means vs. Abel Trujillo
• Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 7 p.m. ET)

• Shane Roller vs. Jacob Volkmann
• Charlie Brenneman vs. Kyle Noke

[poopoo333]

Then again, I haven't looked at the prelims yet.

Hougland and Mizugaki will be close imo, Mizugaki may be overvalued.

Michael Johnson has been improving with every fight (one of the only blackzilians to do this) and I expect him to do pretty good against Castillo, althought Castillo can definitely put him on his back.

Tim Means is a long, rangy, violent guy..but I don't know who Trujillo is yet. Apparently he is one of those NAIA wrestling champs but I haven't seen him fight yet.

Henry Martinez let me down last time I bet on him. He won, but I expected him to dominate the striking and he kept it very close, almost as if he was fighting down to his opponent. Not sure how he matches up with Cruickshank yet, as I've never really seen Cruickshank fight much.

Volkmann will probably beat Roller. I don't think the "wrestling will cancel each other out"...I think Volkmann is a better wrestler in MMA than Roller and will be able to take him down.

I pick Brenneman for every fight, so war Brenneman

[poopoo333]

[poopoo333]

however Hallman has looked terrible at 155.

He has only fought once at 155 (kind of, he missed weight by 2 lbs I think) and he won in a bit less than 3 minutes.