Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."
UFC 151
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Regardless, Hallman at the current odds looks nice. Watching the line to see if it gets better. Won't go big on it thoughComment
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I wouldn't count on Jones ITD. Hendo is a tough out, regardless, but if Jones effectively controls the distance like he should, he'll realize there isn't much Dan Right Handerson is going to be able to do, and could easily just coast on him with jabs and smashing his legs with kicks.Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shitComment
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I wouldn't count on Jones ITD. Hendo is a tough out, regardless, but if Jones effectively controls the distance like he should, he'll realize there isn't much Dan Right Handerson is going to be able to do, and could easily just coast on him with jabs and smashing his legs with kicks.Comment
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A 36 year old wrestler is exactly the type of fighter who won't try to cut weight responsibly. Wrestlers love to push the envelope and father time just isn't on his side, he wasn't a small WW, I'm not sure maxing out at 155 is going to be to his benefit.
Dropping a weight class this late into your career also outdoes a lot of the veteran knowledge he had built based on his experience. He'll have less strength now, it will adversely effect his cardio and he'll have to adjust to the typically faster and better gassed 155ers.
I wouldn't put a ton of stake into the Makdessi fight, I love the kid but his wrestling was unforgivably bad.Comment
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^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.
The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to MakdessiComment
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The ITD odds are terrible, but I can actually understand them.
Jon was content to toy with Rashad and if he can can stay outside everyone's range as he continues to develop his striking, he may take a page from the Spider. Given the noddle arms and the odd chokes he can pull off with them, I'm also not convinced a shorter fighter like Dan would be wise to try to tie him up.Comment
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Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.
Welcome to the worst forum on the internet.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.
The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to Makdessi
I meant to mention that in what will likely be his attempt to max out. TRT helps with developing and maintaining muscle, I really expect Hallman to keep as much weight on as possible, it's really the only advantage a guy like him would have by jumping down.
I really like your point though, North American MMA is built on "control." It's my biggest apprehension on the fight. However, I look to the Pellegrino and Griffin fights as my benchmark to Thiago's ability to negotiate some high level wrestling/grappling and he's really fared well.
I feel I should disclose that I bet exclusively on the most likely result and more or less ignore the lines, I'm a parlay guy (unless it's a -700 like Jones lol). I cleaned up this weekend on a Parlay for Ronda, Jacare, OSP and Tate (she was giving me a heart attack) and the same again adding Saffadine (I was worried about bowling's one punch power)
I'm really glad I was given the invite, you guys all seem to have some excellent insight and pay attention to the details.Comment
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Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.Comment
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You have all the (likely) favorites winning, and that is how I see it too. Jones will win barring a miracle. Yagin is toast, that is the fight I feel most confident in. Yagin is a brawler and he took the fight to Hominick, but Siver will smash him if he tries that here. I like Tavares to beat Siver. Tavares has pretty good takedowns of his own, and better hands. Also, he won't gas out.
Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.
Welcome to the worst forum on the internet.
I think you meant Hallman, if so I agree that he has the grappling to neutralize Hallman (his jiu jitsu is overlooked as he's turned into a kick boxer of late) but I really think his conditioning will play a factor.
I was never a Heiron fan, so I may be falling to some bias, but Jake just needs to find the chin (a suspect one in Jay no less) and you're in trouble. I will be holding my breath if it makes it to the third, but I also think Jake knows what he lost in the Hitman fight. A caged animal is the best bet in my opinion.Comment
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Yeah, I had parlays involving them as well. I just about lost it when Tate got dropped with a head kick, thought I just flushed 10 units down the drain.
Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.
I definitely have to concede the fight isn't a lock, I just can't help but feel that the main card is one of the better bets based on the matchups and not overly aggressive odds (SF odds were brutal, most favourites were 4:1 or worse)Comment
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I will have to watch Yagin/Hominick again. I was there live and all I remember is thinking "Wow, Hominick is getting the fuck beat out of him" and "Great, glad the -600 favorite in my parlay is getting his ass beat by some Mexican midget". Junior Assuncao completely shut Yagin down in their fight with grappling IIRC, can Siver do the same thing/would he even? if he is getting tagged in the stand up? If I end up liking Siver after looking at the fight/looking at what you guys have to say, he might be parlay material for this card.
I think Jay Hieron has a chance to win this if he can survive the onslaught. Ellenberger may smarten up after his last two fights though and not go all out. In the Sanchez fight he would have lost a 5 round fight for sure, he was out of it mid 3rd round. He may have "punched himself out" against Kampmann, but he has always had poor cardio (see the Rocha and Howard fights). My actual prediction for this fight is Ellenberger by TKO but I would not rule out a Hieron decision at all.Comment
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