UFC 151

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  • SPX
    Senior Member
    • Aug 2009
    • 23875

    #16
    Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."
    I heart cock

    Comment

    • poopoo333
      MMA *********
      • Jan 2010
      • 18302

      #17
      Originally posted by SPX
      Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."
      He probably had a brainfart and thought Hallman has been fighting at 155 for awhile.



      Regardless, Hallman at the current odds looks nice. Watching the line to see if it gets better. Won't go big on it though

      Comment

      • poopoo333
        MMA *********
        • Jan 2010
        • 18302

        #18
        Any chance of Hendo making it to the bell? Jones ITD is -350, may as well lay that instead of -700.


        I am leaning a Hettes/Jones (or Jones ITD) parlay. EDIT: Disregard that, Hettes is on UFC 152. Whoops
        Last edited by poopoo333; 08-19-2012, 07:03 PM.

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        • zY|
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2009
          • 8385

          #19
          Originally posted by poopoo333
          Any chance of Hendo making it to the bell? Jones ITD is -350, may as well lay that instead of -700.


          I am leaning a Hettes/Jones (or Jones ITD) parlay. EDIT: Disregard that, Hettes is on UFC 152. Whoops
          I wouldn't count on Jones ITD. Hendo is a tough out, regardless, but if Jones effectively controls the distance like he should, he'll realize there isn't much Dan Right Handerson is going to be able to do, and could easily just coast on him with jabs and smashing his legs with kicks.
          Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit

          Comment

          • poopoo333
            MMA *********
            • Jan 2010
            • 18302

            #20
            Originally posted by zY|
            I wouldn't count on Jones ITD. Hendo is a tough out, regardless, but if Jones effectively controls the distance like he should, he'll realize there isn't much Dan Right Handerson is going to be able to do, and could easily just coast on him with jabs and smashing his legs with kicks.
            I played Jones ITD straight, but I can hedge it a bit with Jones decision +600. I think Jones will be able to get Hendo down and work from there, not sure if he is going to just stand on the outside and strike (although if he did he would still win easy)

            Comment

            • SPX
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2009
              • 23875

              #21
              Jones via decision is +600?

              That's retarded.
              I heart cock

              Comment

              • Cleveland
                Junior Member
                • Aug 2012
                • 16

                #22
                Originally posted by SPX
                Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."
                I was referring to having missed weight and looking completely drawn out.

                A 36 year old wrestler is exactly the type of fighter who won't try to cut weight responsibly. Wrestlers love to push the envelope and father time just isn't on his side, he wasn't a small WW, I'm not sure maxing out at 155 is going to be to his benefit.

                Dropping a weight class this late into your career also outdoes a lot of the veteran knowledge he had built based on his experience. He'll have less strength now, it will adversely effect his cardio and he'll have to adjust to the typically faster and better gassed 155ers.

                I wouldn't put a ton of stake into the Makdessi fight, I love the kid but his wrestling was unforgivably bad.

                Comment

                • poopoo333
                  MMA *********
                  • Jan 2010
                  • 18302

                  #23
                  ^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.

                  The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to Makdessi

                  Comment

                  • Cleveland
                    Junior Member
                    • Aug 2012
                    • 16

                    #24
                    Originally posted by poopoo333
                    I played Jones ITD straight, but I can hedge it a bit with Jones decision +600. I think Jones will be able to get Hendo down and work from there, not sure if he is going to just stand on the outside and strike (although if he did he would still win easy)
                    100 year old Hendo's cardio has to be a concern for everyone, especially against someone who isn't going to stand in front of him.

                    The ITD odds are terrible, but I can actually understand them.

                    Jon was content to toy with Rashad and if he can can stay outside everyone's range as he continues to develop his striking, he may take a page from the Spider. Given the noddle arms and the odd chokes he can pull off with them, I'm also not convinced a shorter fighter like Dan would be wise to try to tie him up.

                    Comment

                    • MMA_scientist
                      Senior Member
                      • Nov 2009
                      • 9857

                      #25
                      Originally posted by Cleveland
                      Depending on lines, what is everyone's thoughts?

                      Is there anything that I've overlooked?
                      You have all the (likely) favorites winning, and that is how I see it too. Jones will win barring a miracle. Yagin is toast, that is the fight I feel most confident in. Yagin is a brawler and he took the fight to Hominick, but Siver will smash him if he tries that here. I like Tavares to beat Siver. Tavares has pretty good takedowns of his own, and better hands. Also, he won't gas out.

                      Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.

                      Welcome to the worst forum on the internet.
                      2012: +19.33
                      2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

                      Comment

                      • Cleveland
                        Junior Member
                        • Aug 2012
                        • 16

                        #26
                        Originally posted by poopoo333
                        ^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.

                        The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to Makdessi
                        TRT has to be the biggest black eye on MMA no?

                        I meant to mention that in what will likely be his attempt to max out. TRT helps with developing and maintaining muscle, I really expect Hallman to keep as much weight on as possible, it's really the only advantage a guy like him would have by jumping down.

                        I really like your point though, North American MMA is built on "control." It's my biggest apprehension on the fight. However, I look to the Pellegrino and Griffin fights as my benchmark to Thiago's ability to negotiate some high level wrestling/grappling and he's really fared well.

                        I feel I should disclose that I bet exclusively on the most likely result and more or less ignore the lines, I'm a parlay guy (unless it's a -700 like Jones lol). I cleaned up this weekend on a Parlay for Ronda, Jacare, OSP and Tate (she was giving me a heart attack) and the same again adding Saffadine (I was worried about bowling's one punch power)

                        I'm really glad I was given the invite, you guys all seem to have some excellent insight and pay attention to the details.

                        Comment

                        • poopoo333
                          MMA *********
                          • Jan 2010
                          • 18302

                          #27
                          Originally posted by Cleveland
                          I cleaned up this weekend on a Parlay for Ronda, Jacare, OSP and Tate (she was giving me a heart attack)
                          Yeah, I had parlays involving them as well. I just about lost it when Tate got dropped with a head kick, thought I just flushed 10 units down the drain.


                          Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.

                          Comment

                          • Cleveland
                            Junior Member
                            • Aug 2012
                            • 16

                            #28
                            Originally posted by MMA_scientist
                            You have all the (likely) favorites winning, and that is how I see it too. Jones will win barring a miracle. Yagin is toast, that is the fight I feel most confident in. Yagin is a brawler and he took the fight to Hominick, but Siver will smash him if he tries that here. I like Tavares to beat Siver. Tavares has pretty good takedowns of his own, and better hands. Also, he won't gas out.

                            Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.

                            Welcome to the worst forum on the internet.
                            I also really like the Siver matchup, it seems people have turned on him post Cerrone, but with a win he was a fight out of the title picture and was always going to be insanely undersized at 155.

                            I think you meant Hallman, if so I agree that he has the grappling to neutralize Hallman (his jiu jitsu is overlooked as he's turned into a kick boxer of late) but I really think his conditioning will play a factor.

                            I was never a Heiron fan, so I may be falling to some bias, but Jake just needs to find the chin (a suspect one in Jay no less) and you're in trouble. I will be holding my breath if it makes it to the third, but I also think Jake knows what he lost in the Hitman fight. A caged animal is the best bet in my opinion.

                            Comment

                            • Cleveland
                              Junior Member
                              • Aug 2012
                              • 16

                              #29
                              Originally posted by poopoo333
                              Yeah, I had parlays involving them as well. I just about lost it when Tate got dropped with a head kick, thought I just flushed 10 units down the drain.


                              Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.
                              Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

                              I definitely have to concede the fight isn't a lock, I just can't help but feel that the main card is one of the better bets based on the matchups and not overly aggressive odds (SF odds were brutal, most favourites were 4:1 or worse)

                              Comment

                              • poopoo333
                                MMA *********
                                • Jan 2010
                                • 18302

                                #30
                                I will have to watch Yagin/Hominick again. I was there live and all I remember is thinking "Wow, Hominick is getting the fuck beat out of him" and "Great, glad the -600 favorite in my parlay is getting his ass beat by some Mexican midget". Junior Assuncao completely shut Yagin down in their fight with grappling IIRC, can Siver do the same thing/would he even? if he is getting tagged in the stand up? If I end up liking Siver after looking at the fight/looking at what you guys have to say, he might be parlay material for this card.

                                I think Jay Hieron has a chance to win this if he can survive the onslaught. Ellenberger may smarten up after his last two fights though and not go all out. In the Sanchez fight he would have lost a 5 round fight for sure, he was out of it mid 3rd round. He may have "punched himself out" against Kampmann, but he has always had poor cardio (see the Rocha and Howard fights). My actual prediction for this fight is Ellenberger by TKO but I would not rule out a Hieron decision at all.

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