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2008-11-13 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE YEAR!
Pick # 1 Baltimore Ravens /New York Giants Under 40.5 -110
Pick # 1 Baltimore Ravens /New York Giants Under 40.5 -110
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Re: 11-16-08
Wunderdog
Game: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (Sunday 11/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -9 (-110)
As much as this looks like a game the Eagles could no-show, their are 10 teams in the NFC right now with an equal or better record. There is no playing with this game because an unexpected loss, and the Eagles are probably done. They are arguably the best 5-4 team in the league right now and certainly capable of a double-digit win in this one. Injuries to key players and a few bad breaks hurt them early. Those players have now gotten healthy and will make this team even better. The Eagles have the 9th rated defense in the league, have recorded 28 sacks, and will certainly be coming at Fitzpatrick with all kinds of blitz packages. Fitz's four TD's to six INT's shows a pick-6 here is not out of the question. Donovan McNabb is having a big year and with Kevin Curtis back at WR, and a healthy Brian Westbrook, this offense is one of the toughest to stop. Cincinnati's pass rush has mustered just nine sacks all season. McNabb will have all the time he needs to pick apart a suspect secondary. This one has "UGLY" potential with a very good, underrated Eagles team needing a big win. The Eagles are 20-14 ATS as a road favorite under Andy Reid. I'll lay the points here as a see a monster blowout.Comment
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Re: 11-16-08
ASA's NFL 5-Game POWER PACK - 80% on the season!
PLAY ON Top Game Home Team Hammer - Pittsburgh (-) vs. San Diego, 4:15 PM EST
While many of the national pundits continue to speak of San Diego?s awaited emergence and how they are still one of the teams to beat in the AFC, the Chargers simply continue to play poor football. Folks, this is not a good team and it isn?t changing during their trip to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are coming off a home loss, so expect them to be ultra angry in this one. This team has been very solid at home off a home loss historically tallying a 15-6 spread record dating back to 1986. It doesn?t happen often, however when it does, the Steelers usually bounce back with a win and cover. San Diego has been really poor on the road this year. They have played away from Southern California five times this year and come up with only one victory. That win can be pushed aside because it was @ Oakland where everyone seems to win. The Bolts even struggled as they were behind 15-0 at half and were out gained by the offensively challenged Raiders. In fact, the only road game where the Chargers actually had more total yards than their opponent was against the Saints (by just 42 yards) and that was still a loss and actually on a neutral field. Look for the SD offense to struggle big time on Sunday. This team has played just one opponent this ENTIRE YEAR who?s defense is currently ranked inside the top 10. That was Carolina back on September 7th and a home loss for the Chargers. Now they attempt to put up points against the #1 overall defense in NFL and they are off loss. The 4-point loss at home to Indy last week was not the fault of the defense who continues to play stellar. They held the Colts to just 62 yards rushing and Peyton Manning completed just 21 of his 40 pass attempts. The problem was turnovers on offense. Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions and apologized to his team after the loss. Look for a much better effort from Roethlisberger on Sunday. He will also get a nice reprieve playing a Charger defense that ranks 26th overall in the NFL and dead last (32nd) against the pass. We?ll definitely side with the riled up home team with the FAR superior defense. Lay the points with the Black & Gold.
PLAY ON Insider Chalk - Tampa Bay (-) vs. Minnesota, 1:00 PM EST
The Bucs are fresh after a bye last week. Minnesota won?t be after a down to the wire physically and emotionally draining game with division rival Green Bay last Sunday. You?ll definitely be able to see a drastic difference on the field Saturday because of this, among other things. Tampa has been a dominating home team this year winning all four by at least 9 points. Their closest home game was a 30-21 win over the Packers. They also whipped up on two very good teams at home rolling over Carolina 27-3 and Atlanta 24-9. Their other home win was a 10-point victory over Seattle. The Bucs have out gained their opponents at home by an average of 120 YPG. Their defense has been lights out at Raymond James Stadium holding each of their four opponents to 282 total yards or less. They have given up an average of just 218 total YPG in those four and just 10 PPG. That will be a big problem for a pedestrian Minnesota offense that relies so heavily on Adrian Peterson. Tampa allows just 99 YPG on the ground in order for the Vikings to stay in this they will rely heavily on QB Gus Frerotte. Problem is, Frerotte has not been playing well. In his last four games he has thrown nine interceptions and don?t expect that to change against the #5 pass defense in the league on Sunday. The Vikes have been a ?go against? team on the road this season. They are just 1-3 both SU and ATS away from the Metrodome. Also, their one road win was a 30-27 gift at New Orleans. The Saints dominated that game but turned the ball over 4 times and Minny also blocked a field goal and returned it for a TD. Otherwise, they would be staring 0-4 in the face for their road record. Tampa is coming off two sub par performance vs. Dallas and KC, however both of those games were on the road. They have now had two weeks off to rectify their problems and we expect a great effort on Sunday. QB Jeff Garcia has been very good completing 68% of his passes and he should continue his success vs. Minnesota who has the 19th ranked pass defense in the NFL. Tampa is in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive total yards and should roll on Sunday. The Vikes have a definite letdown and Tampa comes out on fire. We?ll lay the small number.
PLAY ON Total of the Day - Under the total, Detroit vs. Carolina, 1:00 PM EST
Both of these teams struggled mightily on offense last week. Carolina put up just 17 points @ Oakland while the Lions managed only 10 points at home vs. the Jags. Don?t expect a big change this Sunday. The Lions are in transition as Daunte Culpepper took over at QB after just a few days of practice last week. He threw only 10 passes in last Sunday?s loss to Jacksonville. Don?t expect that to change a whole lot as Culpepper has not been able to get very deep into the playbook in his short time with the team. Detroit has averaged just over 16 PPG this year and that was when they had QB?s that actually have been in the system and were able to run a vast array of offensive plays. Now with Culpepper under center and a scaled back playbook, we can only anticipate this offense will struggle even more than they have over the next few weeks. It doesn?t help that they are facing a Panther defense that had allowed an average of just 11 PPG in their five home games this year. The Panthers offense was terrible last week against an Oakland team that had allowed 24 points or more in 5 of their previous 6 games. QB Jake Delhomme was terrible throwing four interceptions. He also completed just 7 of his 27 attempts for 72 yards. Carolina head coach John Fox will not want to take any chances with this poor Detroit team. Especially with Delhomme coming off a poor performance and struggling against Oakland, look for Carolina to grab a lead and run, run, run. Carolina has played 9 games this year and 8 of them have failed to top 40 points. The Panthers are the #2 defense in the NFL in points allowed and Detroit is not a team that will alter that stat with their struggling offense. Carolina also has the league?s 10th best rushing offense while Detroit can?t stop the run allowing 161 YPG. Expect a heavy dose of the ground game, shortening this game and keeping it well under the total.
PLAY ON Seattle + vs. Arizona, 4:15 PM EST
The Smart Money is all over Seattle on this one and we agree 100%. Nearly 75% of the wagers have come in on the Cards yet the line has remained on 3-points the entire week. It hasn?t budged one bit. That?s because the few ?smart money guys? who are among the 25% wagering on Arizona, have put down enough to keep this line stable. The odds makers are begging you to take the Cards here and we won?t appease them. We like Seattle. The Seahawks have actually been playing fairly well as of late. Three weeks ago they went into San Fran and dominated the Niners winning 34-13 (the same SF team that Arizona struggled with at home on Monday Night). The following week the Hawks lost to a desperate, but very good Philadelphia team that is trying to keep pace in the NFC East. Last Sunday they went to a good Miami team and nearly pulled off the win losing 21-19. This team is still playing hard for Mike Holmgren who is in his final year as Seattle?s head coach. Seattle has had some struggles on offense this year. The main problem has been their passing attack which is averaging just 145 YPG. That is way down from last year when they threw for 248 YPG. Look for those numbers to move drastically upward on Sunday as QB Matt Hasselbeck is back under center for the first time since October 5th. Hasselbeck practiced with no ill affects all week and will get the start vs. Arizona. He is also getting one of his key weapons back as WR Deion Branch will play also for the first time since October 5th. Expect the Seattle offense to look better than it has in quite some time. Arizona is in an absolute horrible spot. They had a come from behind win on Monday night beating San Francisco 29-24. The Cardinals aren?t used to the limelight because they have simply been a poor team for much of their time in Arizona. In fact, last Monday was their FIRST Monday Night win since moving to Arizona 20 years ago. You think there is any chance they avoid a letdown after that. No way. Not only that, this is basically a meaningless game for the Cardinals as they stand at 6-3 in the NFC West while the closest team to them is just 2-7. They have that division wrapped up. Arizona has won just once in Seattle since 1993 (1-6 SU). They have also been a historically terrible road team with a record of just 16-60 their last 76 trips outside of Arizona. With a home game vs. the Super Bowl Champion Giants on deck, we can?t fault the Cards for not having their full focus on the struggling Seahawks. We call for the upset and watch Seattle win at home with Hasselbeck at the helm.
PLAY ON Under the Total, Oakland vs. Miami, 1:00 PM EST
There is absolutely no question that Oakland has problems scoring, or even moving the football down the field for that matter. The Raiders were shut out two weeks ago and totaled just 77 total yards of offense against the Falcons! As an encore last week, they scored just 6 points against the Panthers, even with Carolina QB Jake Delhomme doing his best job to let the Raiders win, (Delhomme finished 7/27 passing for 72 yards and 4 interceptions). The Dolphins will score enough points to win, and be able to put their offense on cruise control against Oakland in a game that will finish UNDER 38.5. The Raider defense has been respectable this season, but no defense can expect to keep their team in contention when their offense is THAT bad. Miami will be able to do what the Falcons and the Panthers did in consecutive weeks against the Raiders; get a comfortable lead and use their strong running game as a cruise control to get an easy win. Also, not that it matters too much, but the Dolphins have a great defense with a fierce pass rush that will further prevent the Oakland offense from scoring. Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington has been extremely efficient in his first season in Miami, completing 67% of his passes for 2200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Miami has also used talented running backs Ronnie Brown (504 yards, 9 TD?s) and Ricky Williams (388 yards, 3 TD?s) very effectively in the new and improved ?Wildcat? formation. Miami doesn?t make a lot of mistakes and that?s a big reason why they are a surprising 5-4 this season and in the playoff hunt. It?s no surprise that the Raiders have finished UNDER in four of their last five games, but the Dolphins have also won three straight games, and finished UNDER in all three. This trend will continue as the Dolphins will jump out to a comfortable lead, and be able to use their strong running game to milk the clock and get the win. Easy UNDER play here.
here you go smash on these!Comment
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Re: 11-16-08
Dominic Brando's Inner Circle, 2-0 yesterday Big 10 goy Ohio State and Big 12 goy Texas
Dominic Brando's Inner Circle 2008-09 NFL/NCAA Football Records Grid:
NFL Regular Season 7-4 for +145.00 Units (Special 150 Units 7-4, Top 100 Units 0-0)
NCAA Regular Season 8-5 for +420.00 Units (Special 150 Units 8-5, Top 100 Units 0-0)
NFL/NCAA Special Teaser Releases 1-0- for +150.00 Units (150 Unit Game of the Year Teaser Iso's 1-0)
Dominic Brando's Inner Circle Sunday NFL Week 11 Executive Report:
NFL 150 Unit Executive Max Out (Dominic Brando's 2008 NFC West Game of the Year):
150 Units #422 SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS -6/-115 over St. Louis Rams
NFL 150 Unit Executive Max Out (Dominic Brando's 2008 NFC North Game of the Year):
150 Units #420 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3/-130 over Minnesota VikingsComment
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Re: 11-16-08
Kelso
2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
25 Units each
75 Unit NFL 2-Team Parlay
Ny Giants (-7) over Ravens
49ers (-6½) over Rams
2008 CHAIRMAN'S CLUB FOOTBALL
10 Units
Seahawks (+3) over Cardinals
2008 BEST BETS FOOTBALL
3 Units
Bears (+3½) over Packers
5 Units
Dolphins (-10) over RaidersComment
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Re: 11-16-08
ChicagoSportsConnection
PAID/confirmed
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CSC NFL NORTH >P>O>W>
TAMPA -4 vs Minnesota..................1:00 EDT
Tampa very tough @ home....4-0.
Won by 10,24,9&15 points.
Minny is a poor road team...1-3 record.
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CSC NBA
UNDER 188 Miami-Toronto..............1:05 EDT
(note early start time)
MIA has held opponents to 83 or less in 3 of L6.
TOR has scored 96,87,89,92,93&91 in L6 games.
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NEW YORK +1.5 vs Dallas................6:05 EDT
(note unusual start time)
Wrong team is favored here in our opinion.
NYK have won 5 of L6
DALL has lost 5 straight & will play 3rd in 4.
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MINNESOTA +9 @ Denver................8:05 EDT
MINN is 1-7, but they have been in every game.....
..only a couple DD losses and those were by 10 & 12.
They played yesterday, but that will help them cause
they had 3 days off before that.
DENV will play their 1st game home off the recent
East Coast swing.
This is their 3rd in 4.Comment
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Re: 11-16-08
Dominic Brando Sports High Volume Program 2008-09 NCAA/NFL Football Records Grid:
NFL/NCAA Teaser Club 8-1-0 for +730.00 Units (Special 150 Units 1-0, Top 100 Units 7-1, Reg 50 Units 0-0)
NCAA ATS Plays 69-56-5/+360.00 Units (Special 150 Units 8-4, Top 100 Units 56-52-4, Reg 50 Units 5-0)
NCAA Money Lines 17-20/+98.75 Units (Top 100 Units 2-0, Regular 50 Units 9-10, Light 25 Units 6-10)
NFL Regular Season ATS Plays 38-30-0 for +150.00 Units (Special 150 Units 7-5, Top 100 Units 31-25)
NFL Regular Season Money Line Plays 17-20/-25.00 Units (Regular 50 Units 11-11, Light 25 Units 6-9)
Dominic Brando Sports Sunday NFL Week 11 High Volume Report #1:
NFL Special 150 Unit Executive Max Out: #420 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3/-130 over Minnesota
NFL Special 150 Unit Executive Max Out: #422 SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS -6/-115 over St Louis Rams
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #417 DETROIT LIONS +15/-115 over Carolina Panthers
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #417 DETROIT/CAROLINA GAME TOTAL OVER 39/-120
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #423 ARIZONA CARDINALS -2/-125 over Seattle Seahawks
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock::#427 DALLAS COWBOYS PICK/-115 over Washington Redskins
7-1 ATS NCAA Saturday (Including 2-0 on Special 150 Unit Releases) Brings Us Over the +1,000 Unit Mark YTD. WE LOOK TO CLOSE THE SEASON IN EXTREMELY STRONG FASHION! Next Report Sunday Anytime Before 12:30 PM EasternComment
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Re: 11-16-08
FRANK PATRON
30000 UNIT LOCK #28
ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5
If you have -3 buy it to -2.5. Even though I do not feel we will ever need that half point because Arizona should roll this team by 17 easy. They have too much talent on offense and Seattle is off another cross country flight. Look for the younger fresher legs of Arizona to crush this over matched Seattle squad.Comment
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Re: 11-16-08
ETHAN LAW'S
Sunday's AFC clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3 SU & 4-5 ATS) and the San Diego Chargers (4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS) will go a long way towards deciding these teams fates in the 2008 season. Pittsburgh has lost 2 of 3 and has fallen into a tie with Baltimore for 1st place in the AFC North. San Diego meanwhile, has struggled most of the season to this point, yet only trail Denver by a game in the AFC West. The Chargers though, would have to be labeled the more "desperate" team in this game. Fail winning the division, and they have very little hope to secure a wildcard bid. Pittsburgh on the other hand would still be 6-4, which would still be at the worst a game behind Baltimore (whom they play again), or they would be tied with the best record among wildcard hopefuls.
The perception of these 2 teams entering this game is quite different. San Diego has under-achieved all year, disappointing many fans who had them pegged as a possible Super Bowl team. The Steelers meanwhile, have perhaps the most impressive defense in the league and look to be one of the best teams in the NFL. That is the perception. Here is the reality. San Diego is one of the healthier teams in the NFL at this point, with only Shawn Merriman being the only key personnel on the Chargers out. His loss was devastating to their defense, but they are dealing with his loss better and better as the season progresses. The Steelers on the other hand have just a slew of major injuries to key personnel. TE Heath Miller, RB Willie Parker, and QB Ben Roethlisberger's being the most publicized. The injuries that will have the most effect on this game though, are the ones to their defensive secondary. With both Deshea Townsend and Bryant McFadden out for this game, the Steelers will have only 1 of their top 3 cornerbacks available to defend the Chargers #6 in the NFL passing game. William Gay, a 5th round draft pick a year ago, will make his 1st NFL start at cornerback. Fernando Bryant, whom the Steelers signed just this week, will play nickel back, despite having only a few days practice with his new team. Bryant is a 10 year veteran of the NFL who was not even on an NFL roster till he signed this week, and now he will be expected to absorb the nuances of the Steelers complex blitzing schemes in a few short days? Surely San Diego QB Phillip Rivers must be licking his chops. Rivers, by the way, may be having one of the quietest "MVP type" seasons in the league this year. He is 2nd in the NFL with a 106.3 passer rating behind only Kurt Warner's 106.4. He leads the NFL with 21 TD passes, yet has thrown only 8 interceptions. He benefits from having the best running back in the NFL behind him, Ladanian Tomlinson. L.T.'s limited success this year is much publicized, but averaging 3.8 yards per carry against defenses designed to stop him every week is not that bad. The Steelers also know that containing L.T. is a priority, which creates a problem for them. A BIG PROBLEM! The Steelers defensive philosophy is to pressure the QB in hopes of rushing him into mistakes. If the rush does not get there in time, their secondary is left open to big plays. The Chargers have one of the best offensive lines in football, and do a fantastic job keeping pass rushers off Phillip Rivers back. They have in fact allowed just 12 sacks this year. Their pass blocking ability will be without a doubt one of the biggest advantages they have entering this game. It is not a coincidence that the 3 teams that have beaten the Steelers this year all rank in the top 10 in the NFL in sacks allowed. Keep your QB standing against Pittsburgh, and you have half won the battle. Make that a QB with a pro bowl resume, against an injury riddled secondary, and Pittsburgh may be the team on its heels this week.
Another problem for the Steelers is their offensive line. Big Ben is maybe the most injured QB in the NFL because his line is not very good. He often takes hit after hit, and this will be one of the few weeks this year that the San Diego pass rush actually has a chance to make an impact. They rank just 17th in the NFL in sacks, but should be able to pressure Roethlisberger, as just about every other Steelers opponent has. Indeed, the Steelers have allowed more sacks than all but 3 NFL teams, and those 3 teams all attempt more passes per game than Pittsburgh does.
The schedule makers did the Chargers a huge favor by scheduling this game as the late doubleheader game on Sunday. San Diego does not have to fight their body clocks with a start time that is extreme to their usual routines. The bad west coast teams never seem to get that luxury. Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle all seem to play the early game when they travel to the East Coast. That this game is the nationally televised doubleheader game also increases the amount of action Vegas takes on this game. Gamblers love to bet on TV games. Because of perception, which I have already outlined, the books will definitely be rooting for the Chargers Sunday. At this writing, 67% of the action was coming in on the Steelers side. Another false perception is that the Steelers have a great home field advantage. While that is not actually wrong thinking, the books know that the public loves betting the Steelers at home, and the lines are adjusted to reflect that. That would also explain why Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS its last 8 times as home favorites. San Diego seems every year to wait till the end of the year to play their best football, starting with this game, I expect that trend to continue. This Chargers team also relishes the underdog role, this being only the 2nd time all year they have not been favored. They are 5-1 ATS last 6 as dogs, and with too many fundamental advantages caused by injuries, I fully expect them to win this game outright. Take the points, though we will not likely need them.
Verdict: San Diego 24, Pittsburgh 20
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON SAN DIEGO +5Comment
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Re: 11-16-08
John Ryan
Game: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons Nov 16 2008 1:00PM
Prediction: Denver Broncos
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver - Denver has a 71% probability of losing this game by 6 or fewer points. Denver has a 90% probability of gaining 6 or more yards per play. Note that Denver is a solid 62-32 ATS when in this role over the past 10 seasons. They also have an 88% probability of scoring 22 or more points. Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points over the past 3 seasons. Atlanta is also just 38-63 ATS when they allow 6 or more yards per play over the past 10 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 46-18 ATS for 72% since 2002. Play on road teams after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is facing an opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Atlanta is in a series of poor roles noting they are just 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992; 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992. Denver had a huge offensive game last week against Cleveland (MNF 15* winner) gaining 564 yards. Note that Denver is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Denver BroncosComment
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