11-15-08

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog
Game: Minnesota at Wisconsin (Saturday 11/15 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +13.5 (-110)

How the perception of these teams has changed. Minnesota was rolling along at 7-1, but then took a couple tumbles. Wisconsin had lost five of six, before finding the win column at feeble Indiana. But let's not overreact to recent history. Ask yourself what this line would have been a few weeks ago? The answer would have likely been 7 or less. So the teams haven't changed, but the perception of them surely has, and as a result this one is chock full of line value. The Badgers made a QB change, but it hasn't improved their ability to throw the ball as they remain a ru-only team. The fact is, the passing numbers have gotten worse! Allan Evridge was completing to a 7.2 yards per pass rate while Sherer is sitting at just 6.3, with an even lower completion rate. Minnesota is simply not two TD's worse than the Badgers right now, and this is a huge overlay. Minnesota has lost to one team by more than this amount all season, and it happened to be in their last game. I'm backing the dog.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Dominic Brando Sports 2008-09 NFL/NCAA Football Teaser Club
Teaser Club Cashes in Yet Again Last Weekend, Now 8-1 YTD!

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1) #387 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES PICK over Illinois Fighting Illini
2) #404 MIAMI DOLPHINS PICK over Oakland Raiders
3) #413 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES PICK over Cincinnati Bengals

Dominic Brando Sports
Capper details

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Colin Cowherd

Stanford 17-30 to cover against USC
Texas 45-20 over Kansas
Notre Dame 22-17 over Navy
Ohio State 33-17 over Illini (Easy $$ Blowout)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

ETHAN LAW

The parity in the ACC this season has created a muddled mess in the standings, it also has made every game an important one, and no fewer than 8 of the 12 teams still have realistic conference championship hopes. Entering the third week in November, that is just an unprecedented scenario, and the pressure mounts with each passing game. One very key match-up to help sort this mess out pits #17 ranked North Carolina (7-2 SU & 5-3 ATS) against Maryland (6-3 SU & 4-4 ATS). The Tar Heels enter this game 3-2 in ACC play, trailing the winner of the Miami/Va. Tech game Thursday by a half a game in the Coastal Division. Maryland is also 3-2 in conference play, and trails Wake Forest and Florida St by a half game each. Maryland has already beaten Wake and has another key game next week against the Seminoles, so they control their own fate towards getting in the ACC title game.

These 2 teams could not be entering this game off more divergent results last week. Maryland played on ESPN last Thursday night and were completely dominated by Va. Tech. They fell behind 20-3 early in the 2nd quarter of that game, rallied to within 20-13, but never had a realistic chance to win that game. The Hokies so dominated the line of scrimmage in that game that Maryland had a net rushing total of minus 12 yards in 18 carries! Maryland was much more successful through the air though as they completed 19 of 31 passes for 240 yards. They were dominated on the other side of the ball just as thoroughly, as the Hokies amassed 273 yards rushing at a 5.6 yards per carry clip. North Carolina meanwhile, comes in off an extremely impressive 28-7 win over then #22 ranked Georgia Tech last week. That win was impressive to most who just looked at the final score, further investigation into the box score reveals that score was indeed very deceiving. While Ga. Tech managed to score just 7 points in that game, they were hardly thwarted by the Carolina defense. They out gained the Tar Heels 423-314 in that game, and only lost because they constantly shot themselves in the foot with turnovers. Indeed, the Yellow Jackets had 326 yards rushing in that game, and gained that yardage at a 6.0 yard per carry clip! Not the kind of stat you often see from a team that only scored 7 points. The combination of that deceiving final score, and the Terrapins dismal showing on ESPN has created great line value because of the perception of these 2 teams right now. I have said repeatedly in my game analysis, that line value is the ultimate goal we look for when wagering on sports, and we definitely have tons of it here.

A statistical comparison of these 2 teams reveals very little difference, Maryland averages about 25 yards more per game offensively than Carolina, and allows about 20 yards per game more defensively. Maryland averages 16.8 first downs per game and Carolina averages 16.2. Maryland allows an average of 4.0 yards per rush and Carolina allows 3.8 yards per carry. I could go on and on, and you would see very little to choose from as far as how either one of these 2 teams is better than the other. The whole point of this exercise is to show that these teams match up very well, and are basically mirror images of each other. If these 2 teams are so evenly matched, then why exactly is North Carolina favored on the road? They are favored on the road for exactly the reasons I outlined above. Very opposite results in their last games have skewed the public's perception of these 2 teams, forcing Vegas to set a line reflecting that perception. A fair line between evenly matched teams normally places the home team as a 4 or 3.5 point favorite, here we have the road team favored by a FG, coming off a very impressive win. Line value established. How has Maryland one this season facing teams perceived as being better than they are? They are 3-1 ATS as dogs this season and are a perfect 5-0 SU at home, outscoring their opponents 153-82. 3 times this season the Terrapins have faced ranked teams, each time they came away with impressive SU wins as underdogs. Last time they were home dogs to Wake Forest and whitewashed them 26-0, out-gaining them 470-219! Before last week's results Maryland was ranked #23 and North Carolina was not ranked at all. Has one week changed these teams so much that the home team should be the dog here? An emphatic NO! Take the points!

Verdict: North Carolina 21, Maryland 28
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON MARYLAND +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Greg Roberts 6* game of the year,

Wisconsin -13 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Tom Stryker

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Tom's College Football System Play of the Week!
CONFERENCE ROAD WELL TRAVELED

This week’s college system is one that took me by surprise. When I handicap games, I try and look for specific situations where I think a team will either rise or fall. In this particular set, I envisioned a team emotionally spent and on the verge of an upset loss. Not to my surprise, after some intensive research, the exact opposite came to be true.

Let me set the stage for you. In this scenario, we have a conference road favorite of -9’ or more coming off a SU and ATS conference road favorite victory. Without saying another word, the knee-jerk would be to fade that piece of road chalk thinking an encore performance, especially as a guest, wouldn’t be possible. That couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, if our conference road favorite is matched up against a greater than .200 foe that checks in off a straight up loss, this situation boasts an impressive 35-21 ATS record for 62.5 percent.

Common sense would lead us to believe that this road favorite would struggle. Thankfully, my powerful college database dismisses that way of thinking and puts us on the correct side.

Like all of my systems, there are certain tighteners that apply that make stronger sets. This one is no different. First, if we take all of the “Class A” teams out of the original 35-21 ATS system – those with a won/loss percentage greater than .900 – this technical situation improves to a sparkling 29-14 ATS for 67.4 percent. That actually makes perfect sense. Teams that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .900 are most likely overpriced. In this situation, we are able to remove a 6-7 ATS record by eliminating those teams.

If we take our 29-14 ATS set and bring their foe in off a straight up loss of 31 points or less, this college system zips to a powerful 26-8 ATS for 76.4 percent. After researching so many different technical situations, I’ve discovered that it’s usually a good thing to dismiss teams that enter off really big losses. Those teams tend to try a little harder coming off an embarrassing performance. Plus, the linemaker has probably over compensated for these teams coming off the blowout loss.

This weekend, there is one team that fits the general system and both tightereners – OHIO STATE! The Buckeyes looked fantastic in their win and cover at Northwestern last Saturday and travel to Illinois to take on an Illini team that lost by six in their last game versus Western Michigan!

Good luck with the Buckeyes and be sure to check back next week for another powerful system.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Spylock

Arizona....3 unit


Cincy
Iowa
North Carolina....all 1 unit

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

North Coast


Early Bird Pow - Ohio State -9'
Comp Under Dog Pow...nc State +4
Power Play 4* Pow...new Mexico
#2 Econ Club Play-marshall -7'
Big Dog Pow -washington +7'
Pac 10 Pow-arizona State -36
Big 12 Gow-oklahoma State -17'

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Asa 6*
Oregon State -6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

JIM FEIST

Ok.St./Col....UNDER 55'

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Jack Clayton

Game: Oklahoma State at Colorado
Pick: Colorado

Reason: Oklahoma State has a dynamite offense built for the artificial turf at home. But this is a road game on natural grass, that slows down speed-oriented offenses. Colorado plays its best ball at home, as well. Play Colorado

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

AKMENS

10* northwestern +3.5

10* airforce +4

10* arizona +6

10* okie st -18

10* ucla -7

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

ASA:

6 1/2-OREGON - 3
3-Maryland
3-Notre Dame
3-S. Miss

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Doc Enterprises:

6-S.Carolina
5-Penn st,

4-oh St,
4-Mich,
4-Nd,
4-Wisc,
4-Smiss,
4-Wmich,
4-Fla Atl

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-08

Gameday:

4-notre dame
3-maryland
3-S. fla,
2-UAB
2-Cal
2-Illinois