Dr. Bob
BALL ST. (-9.5) 28 Northern Ill 19
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-05 - Stats Matchup
Ball State is a perfect 8-0 straight up this season and 7-1 ATS, but the Cardinals’ best win was over a mediocre Navy squad when star WR Dante Love was still catching Nate Davis’ passes. Davis and Love had a special connection, as they racked up 460 yards on 32 passes intended for Love (28 of them were caught). Davis was one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the nation before Love was injured midway through the Indiana game in week 4, but Davis has been just mediocre without Love, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average team. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, is much better offensively now that starting quarterback Chandler Harnish is back under center and the Huskies are the MAC’s best defensive team – allowing just 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. My math model only favors Ball State by 4 ½ points after making the appropriate adjustments, but the Cardinals apply to an 85-31-3 ATS late season momentum situation that I’d hate to buck. I’ll pass on this game.
AKRON (-4.5) 32 Toledo 22
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-05 - Stats Matchup
Akron has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this contest and the Zips qualify in a 138-71-8 ATS situation that is 22-6 ATS for teams coming off a bye. Akron is 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Zips have a 0.3 yppl advantage over a pretty solid Toledo defense that rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Akron also has the edge when the Rockets have the ball, as Toledo rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively while the Zips are at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively. Akron should be favored by 7 points in this game, the general situation is favorable and Toledo is just 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 lined road games. I’ll consider Akron a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.
BALL ST. (-9.5) 28 Northern Ill 19
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-05 - Stats Matchup
Ball State is a perfect 8-0 straight up this season and 7-1 ATS, but the Cardinals’ best win was over a mediocre Navy squad when star WR Dante Love was still catching Nate Davis’ passes. Davis and Love had a special connection, as they racked up 460 yards on 32 passes intended for Love (28 of them were caught). Davis was one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the nation before Love was injured midway through the Indiana game in week 4, but Davis has been just mediocre without Love, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average team. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, is much better offensively now that starting quarterback Chandler Harnish is back under center and the Huskies are the MAC’s best defensive team – allowing just 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. My math model only favors Ball State by 4 ½ points after making the appropriate adjustments, but the Cardinals apply to an 85-31-3 ATS late season momentum situation that I’d hate to buck. I’ll pass on this game.
AKRON (-4.5) 32 Toledo 22
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-05 - Stats Matchup
Akron has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this contest and the Zips qualify in a 138-71-8 ATS situation that is 22-6 ATS for teams coming off a bye. Akron is 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Zips have a 0.3 yppl advantage over a pretty solid Toledo defense that rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Akron also has the edge when the Rockets have the ball, as Toledo rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively while the Zips are at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively. Akron should be favored by 7 points in this game, the general situation is favorable and Toledo is just 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 lined road games. I’ll consider Akron a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.
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