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RON RAYMOND'S 5* BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 Northwestern (7.0)
Pick # 1 Northwestern (7.0)
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Re: 11-1-08
Wunderdog Comp
Game: Iowa at Illinois (Saturday 11/01 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Iowa +2.5 (-105)
The Illini have not been nearly as potent as they were last year and as the schedule toughens, the flaws have been shining through. They have managed just two wins in their last five games, and those were to the weaker teams in the Big-10 in Indiana and Michigan. The problem is they can't stop teams with a good running game, which is exactly what Iowa brings to the table. Illinois is allowing 152 rushing yards per game and Iowa is pounding the ball for 155 per game. This is simply a bad matchup for Illinois. The Illini have yet to hold any opponent to less than 17 points on the season, while Iowa has been spectacular on defense allowing 11.5 ppg on the season. The Hawkeyes, who have won two straight and covered four of five, have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Meanwhile, this will be the Illini's sixth straight game, and the lack of depth is taking its toll. I like teams that play defense and can run the ball on the road. Makes the Hawkeyes a live dog here. -
Re: 11-1-08
Dave Malin sky free play:
4* #346 SOUTH CAROLINA over TENNESSEE
Old habits die hard, and so do perceptions that have been based on results for a long period of time. That is the case with the betting markets and their rating of Phil Fulmer and his Tennessee Volunteers right now. Last week there was a major line move backing them against Alabama in the middle of the week that opened the door for us to cash a 4* ticket, and now we find ourselves in a similar position, with Wednesday’s Tennessee money now taking this one to the right plateau for us to back the much fresher and much better team in a bargain range.
The bottom line with Tennessee is that this team is nowhere near the outstanding squads Fulmer has turned out in the past, and the key for our purposes is that the decline actually started LY, but was not noticed. That is what happens when a team makes it to the S.E.C. championship game. But it took some good fortune for that to happen – the Volts had two conference wins that came in overtime, and an additional escape vs. Vanderbilt by a single point in regulation. One of those overtime wins came against Steve Spurrier and Carolina, and it was a win that absolutely did not belong on the Tennessee ledger – the Gamecocks led by stunning counts of +15 in first downs and 184 yards in total offense, but they were -3 in turnovers, including two in the final 6:52 of regulation play.6
Now fast forward and what was an only average Tennessee team in 2007 is an even weaker squad this time around. In opening 1-4 in S.E.C. play the Vols have averaged only 12.2 first downs and 221.2 yards per game, which is why three of the defeats came by at least a dozen points. This is not a case of an offense that is misfiring, but rather one that does not have the weapons to make plays, and now that they are taking the field for the 8th time in as many weeks, there are levels of physical and emotional fatigue that make it most difficult to get any of that turned around.
Contrast their state of mind and body with that of South Carolina, which has had two full weeks to not only get physically fresh for this one, but to also let those films of LY’s defeat build an extremely high focus level. And that time off is a major tactical edge for Spurrier as well – it means a chance for some extended time with QB Stephen Garcia working with the first team offense, and that is going to create a one-two option at the position that the Old Ball Coach can use to frustrate opposing defenses, with Garcia’s mobility creating many more run options, and Chris Smelley changing the pace in the passing game.
This one is really won by the Carolina defense, however. The Gamecocks are #1 in the S.E.C. and #6 in the nation in total defense, a success rate that has led to Ellis Johnson getting a contract extension during the bye week (from Spurrier - ”I think we’ve got the best defensive coordinator in the country”). His athletic group can completely stifle the pedestrian Tennessee skill players, and dominate field position throughout.Comment
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Re: 11-1-08
David M@linsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - NCAA
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #332 WYOMING over SAN DIEGO STATE
We have only managed a split of the two 6* plays that we have had in action against Chuck Long and his depleted Aztecs in recent weeks, but Saturday’s non-cover with Colorado State was one that did not have to happen. As expected, the Rams wore down that awful defense to the tune of 38 points and 511 yards, but S.D.S. was able to hit a pair of home runs in the second half – a kickoff return for a TD and a 72-yard TD run – that enabled the Aztecs to stay inside the spread. The upside, of course, is that we are left with the value to go to the window once again, in a matchup that has so much more to the home team than the oddsmakers are projecting.
We can start with the basics – despite the notion of two struggling teams going head-to-head here, there is a major gap between them. They have played three common opponents, and the numbers speak loudly, with Wyoming winning those comparisons by 31 points and 617 yards. The problem for Joe Glenn and his Cowboys is that they have had to literally played their Mountain West schedule from the top down, already facing the elite of the conference, before now getting a chance to face San Diego State, U.N.L.V. and Colorado State, all teams that they are capable of beating. And it was not just a quality issue against the league elite, but also one of matchups as well. Because the passing game is so limited the Cowboys must run to be successful, and there are some rock-solid defensive fronts at the top of the Mountain West. The Aztecs are at the other end of the spectrum, rating dead last in the nation against the run.
That ground game has a chance to completely dominate this matchup against a depth-shy defensive front that we can count on to wear down at the Laramie altitude (7,165 feet), and they bring much more to the table than the markets will perceive. In having a week off prior to facing T.C.U. on Saturday they installed an “Outlaw” offensive package, which features a short shotgun snap and a lot of motion. And while not many will pay attention to a one-sided loss, a lot of good things happened in those schemes. RB Devin Moore ran for 114 yards against a defense that had not allowed any team to gain more than 71 in a game this season, and there were a couple of bounces that kept the full production of the attack from showing – a fumbled snap and a botched play that was to have been a RB pass lost a combined 45 yards. The Cowboys are also showing a lot of feistiness up front on the other side of the ball. In their last two games they have held Utah and T.C.U. to 233 rushing yards at an impressive 2.8 per attempt, and note that there were no flukes built in to those numbers. On Saturday T.C.U. had 39 running plays, with none gaining more than 13 yards.
If Wyoming can play this well in the trenches, why have things gone so sour? The passing game has simply been that bad, and it has helped to contribute to a -21 in turnover differential, by far the worst in the nation, when opposing defenses have forced them to the air. That does not happen this week, as their running attack controls this flow from the start, and eventually breaks the game wide open against a feeble opponent that has been beaten by a combined 111-14 in their only two conference road trips, and will bring no confidence to the table.
(ADDED NOTE: Although Wyoming QB Karsteen Sween is going to be held out of practice until later in the week his status is not crucial to our play - Chris Stutzriem has had plenty of time working with the first-team offense in practice in recent weeks, and is currently running #1 on the depth chart, while #2 Dax Crum has played more minutes than Sween.)Comment
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Re: 11-1-08
David M@linsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - NCAA
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #334 WESTERN MICHIGAN over EASTERN MICHIGAN
Back in the early part of this season we focused on the 12-Game schedule on a ”Verities & Balderdash” column, noting how it would bring elements that would both help and hurt our endeavors. Here is the kind of setting in which it helps in a major way, as the oddsmakers do not factor properly the situation that Eastern Michigan is in. And with Western bringing a focus to not just win here, but to win big, the rout is on the way.
This will be the 10th game in as many weeks for Jeff Genyk’s Eagles. That would be a tough toll for any team, but for a floundering side that has already clinched their 13th straight losing season, and has already lost five games by 22 points or more this season, it is a major uphill battle. As bodies grow even more weary it becomes a psychological challenge to keep playing hard, and when the losses keep adding up they are the kind of team that will not meet that challenge. And when it comes to uphill battles, imagine the effect on the psyche of a team that has not scored in the first quarter of a lined game all season, getting out-scored a combined 65-0.
Western Michigan will not only want to extend that run with an early jump, but we do not see the Broncos ever backing off here. While Eastern comes in tired, they instead get two full weeks to prepare for a game that has been circled on their calendar for 12 months, after they turned the ball over six times in a humbling road loss to the Eagles LY when an explosive offense could not score a single point. Now Tim Hiller and a tremendous corps of receivers have a chance to vent a lot of those frustrations.
Hiller is having a dynamic junior season, completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 2,517 yards, and a terrific ratio of 25 touchdown passes vs. only five interceptions. He can tax a tired defense with a supporting cast that includes Jamarko Simmons (66 catches for 702 yards and six touchdowns), Juan Nunez (44-492-4), Schneider Julien (39-491-3) and Brandon Ledbetter (38-385-5). Simmons and Ledbetter have NFL futures ahead of them, with their talent helping to open lanes for the others, and even RB Brandon West has caught 27 passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns, in addition to his 686 and six scores overland. And the chemistry of this unit will only get better, with Simmons, Nunez and Julien all going over 100 receiving yards in the last outing against Central Michigan, the first time in the history of the program that has happened. They bring far too many weapons for a gassed defense to stop, and the freshness and revenge motives break this wide open.Comment
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Re: 11-1-08
David M@linsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - NCAA
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #393 ARKANSAS STATE over ALABAMA
There are not many coaches that we have had a better run with through the years playing both On and Against that Nick Saban, and this one brings us another prime opportunity. Our best success with Saban has come in competitively priced games (like the tickets cashed vs. Clemson and Tennessee already this season), when his outstanding preparation skills can out-maneuver the opposing coaches. And the best anti-situations have been when he is just looking to take care of business and move on. That is what we have this week.
Saban is 1-5 ATS since coming to Alabama as a double-figure favorite. It is a pattern that makes a lot of sense for a guy that worked at the NFL level, where the focus is strictly on getting wins, and not margins, and the SEC right now is about as close to the NFL as any college conference we have ever charted. There are no easy opportunities, and having played five straight conference games, and with a revenge showdown at L.S.U. immediately on deck, there is nothing calling for him to be concerned with anything more than just getting a win on the scoreboard, and keeping his players as fresh as possible for the challenges yet ahead.
Our key here is that the play is not all anti-Alabama. Arkansas State gets two weeks to prepare for what will be recognized as a special opportunity for the program, and there will not be all that much intimidation – under Steve Roberts the Red Wolves have played on the SEC road at Tennessee, Auburn, L.S.U. and Mississippi, in addition to non-conference trips to Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Missouri. And Roberts has some individual talents that can compete at this level. In QB Corey Leonard he has a savvy veteran that despite only being a junior will be making his 27th start, and has only thrown three interceptions this season. The RB tandem of Reggie Arnold, on his way to his third straight 1,000-yard season, and Derek Lawson have each gone for over 500 yards already, and on defense they have a force in Alex Carrington, who is tied for 1st in the nation in tackles for losses, and 3rd in sacks. They can make enough plays to hang around this one for a long time, and stay comfortably under this generous spread.Comment
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Re: 11-1-08
Tommy Rider | CFB Total
triple-dime bet348 Georgia / 347 Florida Over 56.0 SportBet
Analysis:
UPGRADED: ***3 UNIT CFB TOTAL OF THE YEAR***
I decided to upgrade this and make it may CFB Total of the Year for a couple of reasons. First, I have been killing it in the SEC lately. I really seem to have a handle on that conference and my projections have been spot on over the last month. I have this game coming in at 75 points, almost two touchdowns over the total. In my opinion, this line is set way too low. So the question becomes, why?
Here is the deal: The books could care less if we bet this total. That's because they have been getting hammered on Big 12 totals all year long and are trying to set numbers high enough to get people off of those games. If this line was 62, it may not look as appealing. Trust me, as long as people aren't betting overs in the Big 12, the books will be happy.
The other reason I love this total is because I'm not sold on either defense. I think Florida is much improved from last year but when they played Ole Miss and LSU, both teams had success moving the football. And those who follow my picks all know how I feel about the Bulldogs defense. I had UGA as my Underdog Game of the Month last week only because I knew they would be able to point up points on LSU's overrated defense. However, if it weren't for a couple of mistakes, LSU would have scored in the high 40's in that game. Expect Florida to get there this week.
There is just too much offensive firepower on the field in this game and neither defense is a shut-down type of unit. Plus, look at the value we get here. With all the offensive playmakers, we get a total at 56, compared to Kansas/Kansas State where the total is set at 74. Put this all together and it was enough for me to make this play my CFB Total of the Year. I see a score in the neighborhood of 41-34.
Sat, 11/01/08 - 8:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet380 LSU -24.0 (-120) SportBet vs 379 Tulane
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY**
This game is taylor-made for LSU. Some might think this is a bad spot for the Tigers because it's between Georgia and Alabama but I disagree. LSU got blasted last week. Those sandwich situations don't apply when you get embarrassed the week before. Now comes a reeling, hobbling Tulane squad that is without its top rusher, its top receiver and is unsettled at the quarterback position. That's not a great recipe for success when traveling to Death Valley for a night game. I have stated that LSU's defense is overrated and that's because they are front runners. The defense will dominate in this game against an inferior opponent. To be honest, Tulane may not even score a touchdown in this game. The other reason I like laying the big number here is because of freshman QB Jarrett Lee. Lee made a couple of big mistakes against Georgia but he also made a lot of positive plays. With Alabama on deck, Les Miles knows he needs Lee to play well in that game for LSU to pull the upset. You can't just line up and run the football against the Tide, so expect LSU to be throwing even when they have a big lead here. This is what I like to call a "confidence builder" game. LSU needs to build its confidence back up after getting drilled last week and they have the perfect opponent to do just that. I Bought the half point to prevent against a backdoor but doubt it will matter. LSU wins this game by at least 5 touchdowns.Comment
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Re: 11-1-08
TONY GEORGE
FLORIDA
Cannot back Georgia here with Florida playing so well. This is the worlds largest cocktail party in Jacksonville, but Florida has the ability to shut down the run, which forces the Bulldogs out of their game plan. QB Tebow is now on fire and with some big time revenge on the side of Florida who lost by 12 last year, I smell plenty of weak ness's I have noticed with Georgia coming to the forefront here. Florida offense is on fire, scoring 152 points in their last 3 games against SEC foes. Bulldog secondary average at best and suspect here, and with QB Tebow leading the SEC in pass efficiency, they are worth the spread here as I think Florida far more capable of making big plays...this is for the East title no doubt in the SEC, Florida is better
TONY GEORGE
Texas AM -3.5
Colorado in bad shape and off a 58-0 pasting at Mizzou, where head coach Hawkins benched his own kid at QB to start a freshman. Not good news for Colorado traveling back to back to play a Texas AM team improving weekly who won at Ames Iowa last week, a tough place to play, and scoring over 40 points in the process. A Tale of 2 teams going in totally different directions, and the offense of Colorado is woeful. Playing ion College Station worth 4 points alone here not to mention Texas AM is a better team.
TONY GEORGE
Arkansas +7
OK..whats the big deal about Tulsa. yeah they ran the score up against a bunch of nobodies. Big Deal. They looked OK at best on TV Sunday night against a bad Cent. Florida team with a frosh QB. A HUGE step up in class against an improving Arkansas team whose has a solid running game that will move the chains and eat the clock. I know some of the Tulsa coaches used to be at Arkansas and that angle, but this team against a SEC team laying a TD on the road? Arkansas at home here catching Tulsa on a short week off an emotional game.Comment
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Re: 11-1-08
DOC
BIG TEN GAME OF YEAR
8 Unit Play. #24 Take Michigan State Spartans over Wisconsin Badgers (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year. A have a bunch of reasons why this choice was made so lets get rolling. First lets talk about Wisconsin, a team that was predicted to finish high in the Big 10 standing. They have just one conference victory and most handicappers fail to see that their defense is totally overrated. Every team in the conference has run on them and their secondary can be burned deep. Granted Juice Williams did not perform well, but his receivers were wide open, he just missed the throws. In their last six road games, Bucky has given up 206 points (34 points per game). Wisconsin does have two great running backs in Hill and Clay; however, the quarterback has been the real problem for them. QB Sherer has taken over and did not perform well at Iowa and expect MSU to force him to beat them through the air. This is something Wisconsin is not capable of doing especially without TE Travis Beckum.
DOC
4 Unit Play. #79 Take Arkansas State Red Wolves over Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday 3:00 pm ESPN Gameplan) No question this selection is based primarily on going against Alabama then it is going with the Wolves. Bama has just come off of four emotional conference games (Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, & Tennessee). Now they face Arkansas State and this non-conference opponent will be hard to get up for. Expect them to just go through the motions, win the game and move on. They have a road trip to LSU next week and that game will get most of their focus even this week. The Red Wolves are coming off of a bye and have nothing to lose. They have played competitive all season long and will keep this one close as well. Alabama 28, ArkansasComment
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Re: 11-1-08
ASA
College Football Picks
11/1/2008
11:30:00 AM Kansas State Wildcats (+9)
over KANSAS JAYHAWKS
ASA 3-Star Kansas State (+9) over Kansas - 11:30 am CST
Both of these teams are no strangers to the end zone on offense, as both average over 30 points per game. In fact, both Kansas and Kansas State have been held under 28 points only once this season. We are giving the edge to Kansas State in this match-up because of the fact that Kansas’ defense is absolutely terrible. The last two weeks they have given up 1,230 total yards on offense along with 108 points against! Kansas will not be able to hold a lead against Kansas State because of their bad defense and the 9 point edge will be easy for the Wildcats to cover on Saturday. Kansas State may have the best player in the nation that no one knows about in quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman has thrown for 2224 yards and 15 touchdowns while also rushing for 286 yards and 13 touchdowns! Freeman should have a field day against Kansas’ 114th ranked pass defense, as other big-name quarterbacks Graham Harrell, Sam Bradford, and Matt Grothe combined to throw for 1192 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions against the Jayhawks. Kansas even allowed Colorado (who has a terrible offense) to put up 14 points and almost pull off the upset. The last two years the Jayhawks are 2-0 ATS vs. Kansas State, but K-State has a strong hold on the all-time series and is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings with Kansas. With the Jayhawks being so poor on defense, expect Kansas State to match/exceed anything Kansas is able to do on offense. Kansas won’t be able to cover the 9 point spread vs. Freeman and the rest of the Wildcats. Go with K-State.
11/1/2008
1:00:00 PM TEXAS A&M AGGIES (-3.5)
over Colorado Buffaloes
ASA 5-Star Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. Colorado – 1:00 pm CST
A&M is definitely an improving team that simply took awhile to get adjusted to the schemes of their new head coach Mike Sherman. This team was atrocious early in the season but their offense has really gotten on track. The Aggies put up 49 points and over 500 yards of offense last Saturday in their win @ Iowa State. In their last four games vs. Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State, this developing offense has put up an average of 33 PPG and 440 total yards per game. We’re not talking about playing patsies either as two of those four teams are really good and Kansas State isn’t bad. That’s simply bad news for Colorado whose offense is simply putrid right now.
The Buffs are among the worst offenses in the country right now. They were shut out 58-0 last week against a Missouri team that had allowed 84 points in their previous two games. Now the Tigers are a great offense so the 58 points aren’t a huge surprise, however their defense is shaky and for them to shut out Colorado and allow just 199 yards of total offense is a huge red flag. This team has scored only 80 points total in their last 6 games which comes to just 13.3 PPG. The only game they actually cracked 20 points was @ Florida State when they scored a meaningless TD with 3:00 minutes left in the game in their 39-21 loss. The Buffaloes are 105th nationally in PPG and just 102nd in yardage gained per game. Head coach Dan Hawkins is now rotating his two QB’s, Dan Hawkins and Tyler Hansen, and neither is performing well combining for 264 yards passing in their last TWO games.
This will be the second of back to back road games for Colorado and their third road trip in the last four weeks. They are 0-3 both SU and ATS on the road this year and have been beaten by an average score of 42-9. This team has struggled on the road going just 3-13 ATS their last 16 away and they are not going to turn it around this Saturday with an offense that can’t score. CU is also just 4-12 ATS in the second of back to back road games dating back to 1991. We’ll gladly side with an improving Aggie team at home here.
11/1/2008
1:00:00 PM Kent Golden Flashes (+6.5)
over BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
ASA's 6-Star Kent +6.5 over Bowling Green, Saturday, November 1st
The Golden Flashes will dominate the ground game here which is always a fantastic situation, especially when you are an underdog. Kent is the #1 running team in the MAC at 217 YPG. Bowling Green is 97th against the rush on defense and they have been shredded on the ground the last three weeks. Last week Northern Illinois whipped BG up front for 233 yards. After the game, UNI QB Chandler Harnish talked about the ease of which they moved the ball on the ground, “We had four or five yards before I had to make a cut,” he stated. “We were just blowing them off the ball.” That’s been the theme for the BG defense who allowed 218 yards on the ground the week before vs. Miami (Oh) and 206 the week before that against Akron. On offense, BG averages just 100 YPG on the ground and they have failed to reach triple digits rushing in three of their last four games. Now they face the best rushing team in the league and it will simply be more of the same. You might think that Bowling Green has the edge because they are at home. However, you might want to consider that the Falcons have not won a home game yet THIS YEAR. They are 0-3 both SU and ATS including a 24-21 loss to 2-7 Eastern Michigan team. Before losing to Northern Illinois last Saturday, this team played host to Miami (Oh). They were out gained by 138 yards on the ground in that game and lost 27-20. That is a significant stat because Kent played that same Miami (Oh) team last week on the road, out gained them by 158 on the ground and plastered the RedHawks 54-21. Those games were only one week apart so a comparison is definitely relevant. We REALLY like the way this vastly under rated Kent team is playing right now. Despite losing at home to Akron and a very good Ohio team leading up to last week’s blow out, we were able to see a lot of improvement each week. The Golden Flashes have now out gained their last three opponents and five of their last seven. Conversely, Bowling Green has been out gained in six of the eight games this year. These are two teams head in opposite directions right now. We side with the improving team who turned the corner last week. The road team has actually won 5 of the last 7 games out right and with Kent’s huge edge on the ground, we see no reason that won’t happen again this week. Kent wins this one SU.
11/1/2008
2:00:00 PM Arkansas State Indians (+24)
over ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
ASA 3-Star Arkansas State (+24) over Alabama - 2:00 pm CST
Write up to follow.Comment
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Re: 11-1-08
Ethan Law
This Saturday the undefeated Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS) will try to keep their perfect season going when they travel to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-5 SU & 3-4 ATS). If you look at the raw numbers, Arkansas does not have a chance to keep this one close. Tulsa leads the country in scoring, averaging 55.6 points a game. They are also the 1st ranked team in yardage per game, averaging an obscene 601.1 yards per contest! They are an equal opportunity offense also, with 2768 yards passing and 2041 yards rushing. When they run the ball they average 5.9 yards per carry with 4 different ball carriers totaling over 200 yards this year, each of them averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry! They are led on offense by senior quarterback David Johnson who has thrown 32 touchdown passes with only 9 interceptions. I could go on and on but I think you get the point. Tulsa has a very good offense. I am not going to try to convince you otherwise, but let's at least look at the competition they have amassed these eye-popping numbers against. Conf-USA has plenty of good offensive teams, but defense is not a staple of that conference. While looking at the conference teams that Tulsa has played thus far, I found it very interesting that they have not even faced a team ranked in the top 6 in Conf-USA yet! That's right, Tulsa has faced only the worst defenses in their defense deficient conference. Then you add a non-conf game against North Texas (dead last 120th ranked defense), and it becomes easier to see why Tulsa has those unbelievable offensive numbers. Indeed, Tulsa has posted those gaudy point totals against the 120th, 117th, 114th, 113th, 107th, and 93rd ranked defenses in the country! Not exactly your who's who in stop units. Enter Arkansas.
The Razorbacks come from the most powerful conference in the country. It is the deepest, and also the most talented conference in the country, both offensively and defensively. Arkansas has played to this point probably the most brutal schedule in the country, including SEC foes #2 ranked Alabama, #5 ranked Florida, and Auburn, which has a great defense. If that were not bad enough, they also had a non-conf game against #1 Texas! Tulsa will in fact be the 5th ranked team the Razorbacks have faced this year. They have faced Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, so facing this Tulsa offense led by David Johnson (who?) will not phase them. Those games against Florida and Texas were not remotely close, but they were blowouts because those teams also play defense, Tulsa does not. Tulsa is allowing 26.1 points a game, and that was against some of the worst teams in the country! The Razorbacks boast the SEC's leading rusher, junior tailback Michael Smith who has 920 rushing yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Let those numbers sink in a bit 5.6 yards per carry against some top notch defensive teams. Texas and Alabama are tied for 5th in the country, both allowing just 2.6 yards per carry. Florida allows 3.4, Auburn allows 3.8, Kentucky 3.8, and Mississippi allows 3.1! Those are the defenses that Michael Smith has averaged 5.6 yards per carry against, quite impressive if you ask me. What better way to combat an unstoppable offense then to run and run and run, killing the clock, shortening the game, and limiting Tulsa's possessions. Well, they may not actually limit Tulsa's possessions because I think Arkansas will run up and down the field on Tulsa, and score often. Arkansas' much maligned defense has improved steadily this season, which is to be expected from such a young unit. They need only slow Tulsa down to make this a close game, a game Arkansas has a better that a "fighter's chance" to win.
It is also worth noting that this will be Tulsa's first game on the road this year in front of a huge hostile crowd. Tulsa's 3 road games to date at UAB, No Texas, and SMU will hardly prepare them for the raucous atmosphere at an SEC venue. History suggests that Tulsa may be in over their heads here also, since the Razorbacks have beaten Tulsa 16 consecutive times. As a matter of fact, the last time these 2 teams met Arkansas was a 36.5 point favorite! The Razorbacks last 3 results show their improvement, with 2 very tough losses and a win over Auburn. For them to have any hope to have a chance at a bowl game they need a win here, and they would like nothing more than to end Tulsa's perfect season. The pressure on Tulsa mounts with each passing week, to remain unbeaten, as that is their only chance to hit the jackpot and a BCS bowl invite. Coming to a tough SEC venue that will have a homecoming crowd in full voice, may not be the best setting for their winning streak to continue. The SEC is 57-12 SU when hosting a Conf-USA team, and we need only keep it close to cover. Take the points but I will call for the outright upset.
Verdict: Tulsa 19, Arkansas 28
PLAY 1* UNIT 2% ON ARKANSAS +7Comment
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