10-26-08

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:40 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Tommy Rider | NFL Side
triple-dime bet210 PHI -9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 209 ATL
Analysis:
*****5 UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR*****

When I give out a Game of the Year selection, it's always on a team I feel is in the best spot of any throughout the season. As I look over the remainder of the NFL schedule, I don't see a situation that will benefit a team more than the one the Philadelphia Eagles are in this Sunday.

First, let's start with coming off the bye week. Some coaches just know to prepare their team to play after a bye and no one does it any better than Andy Reid. The Eagles are a perfect 9-0 under Reid coming off a bye week. I also like to look at how a team goes into their bye and the Eagles are coming off a strong performance in San Fran. Also, I've been told by Eagles Insiders that even though the team is currently in last place in the NFC East, they believe with the Cowboys having problems and the Redskins still employing a young quarterback that they they are the best team in the division.

Another reason to like the Eagles here is because they are getting healthy at the right time. Brian Westbrook and WR Kevin Curtis will both be playing on Sunday, giving Donovan McNabb and the Eagles their top two offensive weapons on the field together for the first time all year. Also, receiver Reggie Brown is finally back to full strength as well, making this the first time McNabb has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal.

Finally, I think the Eagles have the perfect opponent coming off the bye week. The Falcons are a nice surprise but they are a team you bet at home and fade on the road. They did beat a depleted Packers team on the road but were handled easily by both the Bucs and Panthers. Matt Ryan's numbers are significantly worse away from home. Ryan has a 59.2 passer rating on the road compared with a 121.9 mark at home. And now defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has had an extra week to come up with a bevy of new blitz packages to throw at the rookie. Here is what safety Brian Dawkins had to say about this week's gameplan:

"We're not going to stop. You may get us every once in a while, but we're not going to stop, so you have to be able to maintain that same cool that you were on that one play that you got us on the other 20 blitzes that we throw at you."

I expect the Eagles defense to harass the young Ryan and force him into turning the ball over. Remember one thing: Asante Samuel, along with Champ Bailey, is the best CB in the NFL when it comes to jumping a route. I expect him to have a big game against Ryan.

Atlanta has been outgained in all 3 road games 373-291 with Ryan passing for 170 ypg (50%). They now face an Eagles defense that is 2nd in the NFL with 21 sacks & allowing just 91 (3.5) ypg rushing. In other words, the Falcons will be forced to pass and Philly is going to feed off that and eat Ryan alive.

So, those are the reasons why I made this my NFL Game of the Year. I expect something like a 37-6 Eagles win, so hopefully this one will be over early and you can all sit back and relax

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:40 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 26, 2008

5* Redskins at Lions: I'm not concerned with the Redskins not putting up a ton of points the last two weeks. There is nothing wrong with this offense. The Redskins (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) are playing great for new coach Jim Zorn. This is an uptempo West Coast attack and quarterback Jason Campbell has yet to throw a pick! They have outstanding balance with RB Clinton Portis (fourth straight 100-yard performances), plus WRs Santana Moss and Antawn Randle-El. They feature many three-and four-receiver sets and will tear up this terrible Detroit defense. The Lions (0-6 SU/2-4 ATS) may have covered the last two games, losing 12-10 to the Vikings and 28-21 at Houston, but don't be fooled. They were outgained by a wide margin to the conservative Vikings and allowed 404 yards, including 150 rushing, last week to struggling Houston. Houston held the ball for a franchise-record 40:04. This defense is awful, last in the NFL. The offense has turned to Dan Orvolsky (31 points total in his two starts) and recently traded away its best player, WR Roy Williams. The Lions have been outscored 54-0 in the opening quarter this season! Play the Redskins.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:40 AM

Re: 10-26-08

King Creole | NFL Side
triple-dime bet227 CIN 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 228 HOU
Analysis: 3*** UNDERDOG Game of the Month on: CINCINNATI BENGALS plus the points vs the houston texans / 4:15pm ET

Sharp players already know that DOUBLE-DIGIT underdogs have already CLEANED UP in the 2008 season. For the purposes of this game, we'll create a 2008 set for ALL underdogs of +9 or higher (since the line is going down a little). The numbers are just as GREAT... depending on the conditions.
12-3 ATS so far this season for all NFL road underdogs of +9 > points (CINCY). Bring in an opponent that's playing off 2 wins in a row (like Houston), and the results improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS.

The Bengals are one of only two WINLESS teams in the 2008 season (Detroit being the other). You might be 'holding your nose' when you make this play... but it's the right thing to do according to our database.
Since 1985, NFL teams that are WINLESS in GAME EIGHT or greater are a very impressive 43-16 ATS (73%). We can tighten these numbers considerably based on two different angles: DOUBLE-DIGIT winless dogs are 14-1 ATS (keep your eye on the line).... or 12-2 ATS if our winless team is off an ATS loss of 10 > pts (like CINCY), and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS if this team is taking on a < .500 opp (Houston).

All of us are aware that the Bengals got CREAMED at home last week against the Steelers (final score 38-10). Once again, you may not feel comfortable playing on such a team in your first impression... but these teams DO tend to bring home the bacon in their next game.
14-5 ATS last 3 years for teams off a SU home loss of 21 > pts (CINCY) vs any opponent off a SU win (Houston). And the numbers improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS vs < .500 opponents (like Houston).

Based on the Hurricane impact earlier in the season, the TEXANS find themselves in some unique scheduling situations. This week's game against the Bengals is their FOURTH straight home game. First, we'll do a query for 3 straight 'homies'... and then 4 straight.

6-20 ATS since 199 for all NFL favorites of > 7 points playing in their 3rd STRAIGHT home game... 4-18 ATS when playing off a SU win (Houston)... 2-13 ATS taking on an opponent off a SU loss (CINCY)... and a PERFECT 0-12 ATS as favs of > 7 and < 14 points. We also note that in this decade, NON-DIVISION teams are a PERFECT 0-4 ATS.

NFL teams playing in the 'ever-so-rare' FOURTH straight home game (Houston) are a PERFECT 0-3 ATS since 1990.

After starting the season losing each of their first four games, The TEXANS have won two games in a row... but FAILED to get the cash (as in ATS win) in either game.
2-10 AST since 1996 for all NFL favorites off BB SU home wins... but BB ATS losses (Houston). For a tightener, you can take your pick. Either situation is PERFECT: 0-6 ATS as favs of > 7 pts (Houston)... or 0-5 ATS vs any opponent off a double-digit SU loss (like CINCY).

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:41 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Stephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet228 HOU / 227 CIN Over 44.5 Bodog
Analysis:
Bengas-Texans Over 44.5

Analysis: The Houston Texans just may be the best 'over' team in the NFL with a potent offense and weak defense. This has resulted in the Texans going 'over' eight straight times, including all six games this season.

The 'over' has cashed 70 percent of the time during the past 17 instances in which the Texans played a team with a winning percentage of less than 33 percent.

The Texans are fifth in offense. They've scored at least 27 points in each of their past four games and should have no problem reaching that figure against a Bengals defense now missing one of their better players, linebacker Keith Rivers.

Andre Johnson has played better than any other wide receiver during the past two weeks and the Texans now have a solid 1-2 running punch with a healthy veteran Ahman Green joining good-looking rookie Steve Slaton.

Look for Bengals second-string quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to have his best game since replacing an injured Carson Palmer. He's had several starts and his more comfortable with his main wide receiving targets, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

Houston is yielding 29.8 points per game. Only the Lions are giving up more. The Bengals have the wideouts to take advantage of the Texans' porous secondary.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:41 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Wunderdog

Game: Arizona at Carolina (Sunday 10/26 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina -3.5 (-110)

I was all over Arizona in their last game, predicting the upset over Dallas. This week however I am going to fade them. Why? For starters, they are on the road. The Cards are turning into one of the league's best at home, but on the road they don't produce at the same level. Last season they 2-6 on the road but 6-2 at home. This year they are 3-0 SU and ATS at home, outscoring opponents 102-51. That includes wins over the Cowboys and the 5-1 Buffalo Bills. But, on the road, they are 1-2 SU and ATS, getting outscored by an average of score of 25-31. And, those games were against mediocre opponents (San Francisco, Washington and the Jets). This team is just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games as underdogs. Secondly, they are playing Carolina. The Panthers have emerged as a force in 2008. They are 5-2 having posted wins against San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans. They have not lost against the spread in seven straight home games. In their four home games this season, they have outscored their opponents 108-33! The Cards have lost 21 of their last 29 games ATS following two straight wins. I like Carolina here at home, laying the points.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:41 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Chip Chirimbes

AFC GOY Miami

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:41 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Jeffersonsports Early Release
Tulsa-23 (released Mon Night)

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:42 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Spylock
New Orleans......5 unit
monday...Tennessee....1 unit

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:42 AM

Re: 10-26-08

RON RAYMOND'S 3* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET!

Pick # 1 Arizona Cardinals (3.5)

RON RAYMOND'S 5* O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Atlanta Falcons /Philadelphia Eagles Under 45 -110

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:42 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Tony George | NFL Side
dime bet208 DAL -1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 207 TAM
Analysis:
Dallas -1

The Cowboys back is against the wall, Tampa Struggled against lowly Seattle for most the game last week, but I have a feeling that this is a game many expect Dallas to lose in the shape they are, but Brad Johnson and company get it done against his old team here. Tampa 1-2 on the road this year and I like Dallas to bounce back at home in a game that sets up the rest of the season in my opinion. Cowboys have more talent and should be able to get it all put together against a suspect Bucs team. Look for a reversal of fortune here for Dallas.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.

2 team teaser. Tease Baltimore to -3 and tease the TOTAL in the Steelers / Giants game Up to 48.5 and take the UNDER. Play 1 Unit..Thanks and Good Luck..Tony George

Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet209 ATL 9.5 (-110) BetUS vs 210 PHI
Analysis:

Atlanta +9

A team who beat Green Bay on the road getting 9 here. Unlike other rebuilding teams like KC lets say, Atlanta is getting better each week. The power running game, good passing by Rookie Ryan, and Philly is not fully recovered from their losing ways, although we pounded them last week against the 49ers, anyone looks good against the 49ers. Atlanta has a solid defense, good special teams, confidence, and some great skill players and scheme their games well. Should be a good game, possibly low scoring, I will take Atlanta. and the generous points. I watch Atlanta play and beat a good Chicago team last week and am impressed with the QB and RB and defense as well as being very well coached and prepared.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet214 CAR -3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 213 ARI
Analysis:

Carolina -3.5

Sold on the resurgence of Carolina here who plays tough defense at home and power running game should dominate here, and open play action to WR Smith to make big plays. Arizona has lost 2 out of their 3 roadies this year to the NY Jets and Washington, both sound defeats. I like going against an Overtime winner, especially a dog the following week. Carolina is on a roll, they are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10, and in their last 3 games they have allowed 11 ppg on defense. Like the running game against Arizona here and the home team.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:42 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Andre Gomes | NFL Side
double-dime bet208 DAL -2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 207 TAM
Analysis: This game will be between two teams with different states of mind right now. More important than injuries or the players missing on a certain game, the psychological aspect can be the most important factor of a game and the teams are coming to this game in opposite states of mind.

Dallas has lost their second game in a row and the 3rd of their last 4 games. Their defeat against the Rams was horrible (I took them). The Cowboys started well the game with a TD on the first drive of the game, but then allowed 3 TD on the 3 first drives of the Rams, suffering 21 points in the 1st quarter of the game! This was the second game in a row the Cowboys have allowed at least 30 points and I expect the team to bounce back this week.

Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said Friday morning he was impressed with how the players responded to up-tempo practices this week and also with the atmosphere in the locker room.

"I have a good feeling," Phillips said. "Our team attitude is good. They're looking forward to this game."

Their defense will have their big test this week, after being humiliated last week against one of the weakest offenses of the league. The situation that I've told before about the psychological aspect of this game has to go with the fact this is a must win game for Dallas and it is inserted on a very strong spot called "Playoff Potential". And why? Well, Dallas is 4-3 and a defeat this week would put them with a 4-4 record, knowing the Giants are 5-1 and the Redskins are 5-2. So, a loss this week would put on a big hole, especially when their next two games will be against the Giants and the Redskins on the road!!! A defeat this week would almost kill their chances of reaching the postseason.

The spot of the Bucs is totally the opposite. They are 5-2 right now and they are coming from a very big home win over Seattle on a SNF game. And looking at their schedule, their next three games will be against the Chiefs, Minny and Detroit. A possible 3-0 for them on these games would be no surprise, which put the Bucs on a lookahead situation this week.

QB Brad Johnson didn't have the season debut as a starter he wanted last week against the Rams, with 3 interceptions and 1 TD pass, for just 50% completions, but Johnson has an edge this week. He has played in Tampa for four seasons with coach Gruden and know the Bucs' defensive system very well and knows how to avoid it.

Dallas is 0-4 ATS on their last 4 games and they are just being favored by 2 points on this game, so a win by a FG is enough for them to cover. The team still has a lot of talent even without Romo and the spot is too strong to be avoided. Dallas is 15-4 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1992. So, I'm taking Dallas in here for a good bounce back game for them. DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

Sun, 10/26/08 - 4:15 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Total
dime bet220 PIT / 219 NYG Under 42.0 Bodog
Analysis: At first sight, we could say this game will have as its key matchup, the offense of the Giants (2nd best in the league with 395.0 yds/game) and the defense of the Steelers (best in the NFL with only 228.3 yards/game allowed). The Giants are showing this season that they have a good offensive game. They won last season's SuperBowl, mainly due to their defense, but this season their offense is simply on-fire. All of this is true, but it hides a very important factor: the level of the opponents the Giants have faced this season. In 6 games, the Giants have faced one team with a winning record, the Redskins on opening night. After that, the Giants faced teams with a combined record of 7-25!!! So, it's better to be careful, when we analyze the Giants for this week's game. They have the best rushing game of the league, with 169.7 yards/game. But if we see the defenses of the Giants' opponents on their last 5 games, the team with the best rush defense is Seattle and they are just 22nd on the league with 121.3 rushing yards/game allowed. The last two times teams limited the Giants' running games, they had problems, as they barely defeated the Bengals and lost against the Browns.

Well, the Steelers are at a whole different level. They are the 2nd best rush defense of the league with just 69.7 yards/allowed and the Giants will for the first time the season face a team, which is capable of making them struggle on both ends of the football. However, the defense of the Giants continues to be very strong, even though most of the talk is about their offense right now. The team bounce back nicely from their MNF disaster at Cleveland and limited the 49ers to 17 points. And the Steelers will struggle on the offense. First of all, the injuries: WR Santonio Holmes is a big loss for this game, due to extra football motives. And if we add the fact RB Willie Parker is doubtful for this game, the Steelers will have problems in their offense this week. The blitzing DL of the Giants will cause a lot of problems to the Steelers and their way of attacking the pass rush is very similar to the one the Eagles use and if you remember earlier in the season, the Eagles defense rocked Ben Roethlisberger for eight sacks. The Giants are the 2nd team of the league with most sacks this season: 21! And the best of the league on that stat is the... Steelers with 25!

So, I predict both teams to have problems on their offense on this week and I expect an hard game in a low scoring affair in here. This will be the first big test of the Giants this season and the Under is 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Unless, some weird stuff happens on the field, this will be a low scoring game. Take the under in here.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 08:46 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Erin Rynning
20*Miami
10*Detroit , Cincy.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 09:09 AM

Re: 10-26-08

Joyce Sterling
Sunday NFL 10/26

Pittsburgh -3 (8-3 run)10 STAR Game of the Week
Eli Manning vs Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh, first in the league in total defense (228.3 yards per game) and pass defense (158.7), is coming off a 38-10 wen vs Cincinnati last week. The Steelers held an opponent to less than 100 yards rushing for the fifth time this season, surrendered a season-low 128 passing yards and forced a turnover for the fifth time in six games. Steelers' 89 points allowed is the second-lowest total in the NFL. Their offense also appears to be coming around with a second consecutive game of at least 375 yards.

Washington -9
They already played poorly vs a previous winless team, St. Louis, 2 weeks ago so they should be more focused here. After overcoming a bad first half to survive another close call last week, they'll try to return to form by taking advantage of another of the NFL's worst teams. Jason Campbell is yet to be picked off this season. Detroit is in total disarray. They are 2-11 ATS their last 13 games.

Cleveland +7
Cleveland needs this game. They are 13-0 ATS playing a nondivision game off a nondivision game. The Cleveland defense is underrated, they have held 4 of 6 opponents to 14 points or less. They are on a 13-4 ATS run.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-26-2008, 09:10 AM

Re: 10-26-08

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

5*BEST BET

Philadelphia over Atlanta by 20
For multiple reasons, the Eagles picked an opportune time to even
their record for the season. For openers, head coach Andy Reid
sparkles in games when playing with rest, going 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS,
including 5-0 ATS versus a .666 or greater opponent. Better yet, when
Donovan McNabb is his starting QB and his team is rested, the Eagles
are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. In addition, Reid is 6-1 ATS in games when his
record is dead-even .500 and he’s taking on a foe off a SU and ATS win.
And speaking of dead-even .500 clubs, teams in Game Seven that are
playing at home off one-win exact are 12-4 ATS since 1980. While the
Falcons are an improved unit from last season they have allowed three
of their last four foes 2nd high season yards. The Eagles, on the other
hand, have held four foes to season-low yardage. Andy looks dandy
in this spot today.

4* BEST BET

NY Giants over Pittsburgh by 10
As we approach the halfway mark of the 2008 NFL season, it’s apparent
there is no clear-cut favorite in either conference. The Chargers, Colts
and Patriots have struggled, thus vaulting the Steelers and Titans into
prominence in the AFC. The Cowboys, Eagles and Bucs have all had
their woes, making the G-Men and Redskins the teams to beat in the
NFC. Thus, this could be a possible Super Bowl preview. We all know
the Giants’ affi nity for playing away from home (12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS
last 13 games). What you don’t know is that defending Super Bowl
champions shine on the road if not favored when taking on a .833 or
greater opponent. That’s because these ring-winners are 12-1 ATS in
this role since 1980! Considering Steeler boss Mike Tomlin is 0-4 ATS
in games off back-to-back wins if the last game was against a division
foe, we’ll stand tall with Big Blue.

3* BEST BET

Arizona over Carolina by 7

Both of these teams missed out on the playoffs last season and both
appear to be in post-season contention as we near the halfway mark
of this 2008 campaign. The Cardinals were denied a winning record
last year when the Panthers upended them, 25-10, as 6-point home
favorites.If that isn’t incentive enough then perhaps Ken Whisenhunt’s
10-1 ATS career mark in games against opponents off a win of 7 or
more points should be. On the other side of the ledger, Carolina head
coach John Fox trots off to the fi nance company as a home favorite
in games against .666 or greater opposition, going 3-6 SU and 1-7-1
ATS. That being said, we fully expect the Panthers to drop to 3-15 ATS
at home against .500 or greater opponents with revenge here today.
We’re raising Arizona.

10-26-08

10-26-08

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