10-12-08

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:16 AM

Re: 10-12-08

EZ WINNERS Sunday

5* Houston -3

5* Seattle -1.5

3* Atlanta +3

2* St. Louis +14

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:17 AM

Re: 10-12-08

WUNDERDOG

Game: Green Bay at Seattle (Sunday 10/12 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +1 (-110)

The Seahawks are coming off a truly gut-wrenching embarrassing loss. The Giants poured it on, winning 44-6. That dropped Seattle to 1-3 on the season. You can bet they are circling the wagons this week. There's nothing like that kind of embarrassment to motivate a set of professionals to perform better the following week. Is Seattle that bad? They beat St. Louis 37-13. Sure, that's the lowly Rams. But, you expect a good team to blow out the bad ones. Their losses have come against what can now be seen to be pretty good teams. The Giants are one of the top teams in the league. They also lost to San Francisco and Buffalo - two teams that were bad last season but have shown they are quite good this year. In Green Bay we have a bit more of a concern. They looked sharp out of the gate beating Minnesota and Detroit. But they have since dropped three straight including a really bad loss to Atlanta at home last week. Both of these teams have issues, but this game is in Seattle which will spell the difference. The Packers haven't won here since 1996 and Seattle is a good home team. And, they have about as strong a motivation as is available in the NFL after last week's stinker. We'll back them here to get the win.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:17 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Vernon Croy's **25 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR**
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals (Oct 12 4:15 PM)
Over 50.0 (-110.0)
25 Units, Take the Over, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have this game hitting 60 points hands down Sunday afternoon. Arizona is averaging 29.4 ppg this season while the Cowboys are averaging 30.2 ppg and the O/U is 16-6 for the Cardinals in their last 22 games as a dog. The O/U is 12-3 for the Cardinals in their last 15 games after a ATS win and the O/U is 5-1 for the Cowboys in their last 6 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys defense has given up an average of 25.25 ppg over their last 4 games and they will give up at least 25 points against this Cardinals offense that has averaged 31 ppg over their last 4 games. Both of these teams can strike very quickly and I look for s shoot-out Sunday afternoon so take the Over as my NFL Total of the Year.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:17 AM

Re: 10-12-08

2008-10-08 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Chicago Bears /Atlanta Falcons Over 43.5 110

2008-10-11 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET
Pick # 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5)

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:17 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Stephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet220 DEN / 219 JAC Over 48.0 Bodog
Analysis:
Jaguars-Broncos Over 48

Analysis: The Broncos pass well and the Jaguars have the potential to run well. That goes hand-in-hand with each team's major defensive weakness.

The Broncos surrendered 198 yards rushing to Larry Johnson two weeks ago in a shocking loss to the Chiefs. Denver ranks 29th in defense and 25th in points allowed. The Broncos' undersized defense can't stop good running backs.

The Jagaurs have two good ones, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. The key for Jacksonville is a banged-up offensive line that is getting more healthy. The Jaguars have scored 51 points in their last two games as their offense heats up.

Denver should put up plenty of points against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary. Behind strong-armed Jay Cutler, the Broncos are averaging nearly 30 points a game and rank second in yards and in passing yards per game.

Trend-wise there are strong indications to an 'over,' too. The Jaguars have gone 'over' in 11 of their last 13 road games. The Broncos are 20-6 to the 'over' in their last 26 games, including 4-1 this season.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:17 AM

Re: 10-12-08

King Creole | NFL Side
triple-dime bet216 HOU -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 215 MIA
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
3*** BEST BET on: HOUSTON TEXANS
*If needed, the sharp player would make sure (buy?) his line is -2.5 or less.

It's 'Bubble Burst' time for our hometown Dolphins. Off H-U-G-E back to back UNDERDOG wins, the database tells us to fade these overachieving teams in their next game.
3-12 ATS since 1982 for ALL NFL teams off BB SU wins as a dog of +6 points or higher (in both games) against an opponent that's off a SU loss. These teams are 1-6 ATS since 1005.... and DOGS of < 7 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS (Dolphins).

If it's Game #5 of the NFL season, and you still haven't won a game yet.... it's time to most teams to break out with a BIG win. That's the case for the Texans, who are off a couple of hard-luck losses in a row... an are 0-4 SU so far in 2008.
25-8 ATS since 1908 for All GAME FIVE winless teams.... and 13-3 ATS since the 2003 season. Our qualifiers this week in those 13-3 ATS System are HOUSTON, DETROIT, and ST LOUIS. Home teams to PARTICULARLY well in this scenario.... as they have gone a PERFECT 9-0 ATS since the 2001 season (TEXANS).

There's a significant line swing in regards to the pointspread in this game. In a two-week period, Houston has gone from home dogs of +4.5 points to home favs of -3 points.
17-6 ATS since 1999: ALL NFL home favorites of -3 > points playing off a home game in which they were a DOG of +4 or more points. On a more recent note, these hosts arte 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years. Bring in a host who LOST that last game, and the original 178-6 ATS set improves to 10-2 ATS.... and a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in the last 3 years.

Now, let's take a look at last week's opponents for each team. Miami upset the San Diego Chargers last week... while Houston lost to division rival Indianapolis Colts.
8-1 ATS in GAME 7 or less since the 2002 season for teams who lost to the COLTS last week as a home underdog (TEXANS).... when they are taking on an opponent off a SU win.
3-12 ATS for all road underdogs who beat the CHARGERS last week (Dolphins). Or even BETTER: 0-10 ATS since 1984 for road dogs of < 8 points off a SU DOG win over the CHARGERS (Dolphins).

With the 2 Big Dog wins for Miami, they covered the pointspread by 13 points last week (they were dogs of +6 and won by 7).... and they covered the pointspread by 37.5 points against the Patriots (they were dogs of +12.5 and won by 25).
0-10 ATS in the HISTORY of our database: ANY NFL team off an ATS home win of +10 or more points... and an ATS road win of +35 or more points (Dolphins).

Despite losing their last 2 games, the Houston offense looked pretty good... scoring 27 points in each game (vs the Colts and Jags). This situation hasn't happened very often when these hard-luck losers take on a decent team in their next game. But the results from the database clearly identify who to put your money on.
4-0 ATS since 1980 for NFL teams off BB SU losses in which they scored 27+ points in each game (TEXANS) when they take on an opponent with a current winning percentage of .500 or better (Dolphins).

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:18 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Andre Gomes | NFL Side
double-dime bet216 HOU -3.0 (+100) Bodog vs 215 MIA
Analysis: If we look to the standings, there are 4 teams with 0-4 or worse records: Texans, Bengals, Lions and Rams. Well, I just don't want to be disrespectful for the other three teams, but the Texans are on a superior level. This team suffered with the Hurricane Ike earlier in the season, and I'm talking about the lack of concentration that the team should have on the football.

After the unexpected bye week, the Texans lost against the Jaguars and the Colts in two games that the Texans actually outplayed those teams. Against the Jags, they had +11 total yards than the Jags and last week they had +77 total yards than the Colts! The defeat against Indianapolis was a miracle, in a game where the Texans leaded 27-10, and in a couple of minutes they blew up the lead in a dismal loss. The good news for a bettor perspective is that they play again at home, which is a strong spot for them.

Matt Schaubb, unfortunately for the Texans, missed last game (QB Rosenfels screw up against the Colts with 2 awful turnovers) and he's back for this game. Schaubb after bad performances bounced back against the Jags and performed nicely with 3 TD's and 119.5 QB rating, and with Andre Johnson playing well, the Texans have a balance offense.

Steve Slaton has breathed new life into a dying running game, with 285 yards and a 5-yard average per carry. If Ahman Green stays healthy and runs like he did against the Colts, he'll be a nice complement to Slaton. Both are good receivers out of the backfield and the Texans have the right tool to make much damage.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins suddenly are one of the biggest surprises on the league. They slaughtered the Patriots on their own field with a huge upset win and last week they had repeated the same, beating the Chargers at home 17-10.

The key was the Wildcat formation, with which Miami took advantage of the lack of preparation of the opponents to counter this system. But the surprise factor won't last forever and the Texans should be for sure more prepared that the Chargers and Patriots.:

"They're causing a lot of problems because basically you're preparing for two offensive football teams," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of the Dolphins. "It's not only that they're doing something different. They're running their other offense pretty darn well, too. So, all of a sudden, your preparation is doubled."

The Dolphins average 126 yards a game and a 4.3-yard average per carry. Ronnie Brown has 286 yards, a 4.9-yard average per carry and six touchdowns. He and Ricky Williams (189) are the backs in the wildcat formation and both were the key players on the 2 wins by the Dolphins.

Although the Texans are ranked in 26th rush defense with 138.8 yards allowed, they've improved against the run in the last two games, in which they excelled at, containing Jacksonville's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, so I'm expecting a well prepared team to contain the Dolphins' running football.

Miami is overlooked in this game, the surprise factor will not be the same for this game, and we must not forget that in the last game the Chargers were in a bad spot for them: first trip to the East in a earlier game for them, here the evidences: QB Rivers completed only 46.4% of the Passes and the Chargers went 1-3 on the Red Zone Efficiency, and 0-1 on Goal To Go Efficiency.

I expect a huge effort of the Texans for this game, they need badly to win a ballgame which they already deserved, and they will face a team which comes from two upset wins, therefore a letdown is the most likely scenario. I will take the Texans in here for my first double dime pick of the season!

Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet206 IND -3.0 (-125) BetUS vs 205 BAL

Sun, 10/12/08 - 4:05 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Total
dime bet220 DEN / 219 JAC Over 48.0 Bodog

Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet210 TAM -1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 209 CAR

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:18 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet217 STL 14.0 (-110) Bodog vs 218 WAS
Analysis:
Rams +14

Analysis: St. Louis doesn't have much going, offensively or defensively, but this is an outstanding situation for the Rams. St. Louis was idle last week. Fiery Jim Haslett replaces the ineffectual Scott Linehan. His first move was to restore Marc Bulger back to the starting quarterback spot, thus greatly improving team morale.

The Redskins are in a flat spot following tremendous upset division road victories against Dallas and Philadelphia. Those games obviously took a toll on the Redskins, physically and mentally. It will be hard for them to take the winless Rams seriously.

Leonard Little is healthy for the Rams. That's huge because he's a premier pass rusher. He elevates the Rams' entire defense. Washington hasn't committed a turnover in five games. What are the odds of going a sixth straight game without an interception or fumble?

The Redskins also have key defensive injuries. Their best pass rusher, Jason Taylor, and best cornerback, Shawn Springs, missed last week's game. The Rams can keep the chains moving with stud running back Steven Jackson.

Keep in mind, too, that in the parity-filled NFL road underdogs of 10 or more points are 7-0 against the spread this season.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:18 AM

Re: 10-12-08

King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet218 WAS / 217 STL Over 44.0 BetUS
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / ST LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

4:15pm ET / GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

4:15pm ET / DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

GM 1:
The winless Rams return from their Bye week with a new Head Coach (Jim Haslett) and a new starting QB (back to Bulger). They qualify in multiple solid high-scoring situations based on that week of rest.
4-0 O/U in the last 3 years for WINLESS road teams playing off their BYE week. And.... 5-1 O/U in the last 4 years for road teams with REST off a DOUBLE-DIGIT home loss.
Even if we throw out the ?with rest? situation, the numbers are still good.
GAME FIVE non-div teams off a 0-4 SU start are 12-3 O/U... and 5-0 O/U as road dogs of 9 > pts.

This game has the highest line (Wash -13 > pts) on the NFL week six schedule. That works for me. 15-3 O/U since 1995 for all OCTOBER non-division DD dogs (RAMS).

Washington enters the game on a hot 4-game winning streak, with the last 2 wins as division dogs. In the last 4 years, OCTOBER home favs on a 3+ game winning streak are an amazing 16-3 O/U... and these teams went a PERFECT 6-0 O/U last season. We?re talking ?Pedal to the Medal?! When we eliminate the streak from our query and insert the previous DOG win, the numbers are just as good.
10-2 O/U since 2001 for GAME SIX home teams playing off a DOG win... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 5 years.

Combining the current form of BOTH teams seals the deal: In this decade, GAME FIVE or greater home favs off 3 SUATS wins are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U vs an opp off 3 SUATS losses in a row. The Redskins LOVE beating up on shitty teams (6-0 O/U L10Y favs vs non-div .250 < foes).

GM 2:
Green Bay heads out west on a 3-game losing streak, with the last loss at home as a favorite against the Falcons. A 90% System tells us to look for the OVER.
9-1 O/U since 2000 for Conference road dogs off BB SU losses, with the last loss as a home fav of -5 > points.

Numerous one-sided team trends for Green bay help to state our case.
11-0 O/U away in between home games... 9-0 O/U vs an opp off a road loss of 7 > pts... 4-0 O/U away vs NFC West teams.

The Packer defense has been leaking oil lately, allowing 25,27, 30, and 27 points.
11-2 O/U since 2002 for all GAME FIVE > road teams after allowing 25+ points in each of their last 4 games. Our numbers shoot up to 9-0 O/U vs fellow conference opponents.

Seattle has gone OVER in EACH of their first 4 games this year (4-0 O/U).
GAME FIVE teams off 4 straight 'OVERS' are 6-1 O/U since 1998 vs an opponent off a SU loss. Last week's road loss was ugly for the Seahawks, as they lost to the Giants by a score of 44-6. That result is a good sign for us.
In the last 4 years, ALL NFL teams are a PERFECT 10-0 O/U off a SU road loss of 35 or more points.

In a final variation that's already gone 2-0 O/U this year, we seal the deal.
15-3 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL teams off a SU road loss in whcih they allowed 42 or more points (SEAHAWKS) In the last 12 months, these teams are a PERFECT 12-0 O/U. Your 2 winners this season were Jets/Cardinals OVER and Cardinals/Bills OVER (and we were on BOTH of em).

GM 3:
The bar is set high for this week?s Top OVER, but the timing is right. This week?s high OU line will NOT scare us off. Since 1984, OCTOBER home dogs with an OU line of 49 > pts are 12-3 O/U... and a PERFECT 5-0 for NFC home teams.

With a big 41-17 win behind them, the Cardinals are primed for more high-scoring results.
NFL Underdogs off a SU home win in which they scored 40+ points are 12-3 O/U since 2004... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 4 seasons.

Arizona also figures to ?let it ALL hang out? on Sunday with their Bye week on deck.
So far in the 2008 season, HOME teams are 7-1 O/U before their BYE week. From a team perspective, this also holds up well as the Cards are 5-0 O/U before their Bye in the last 5 years.

Dallas enters this game on a run in which they have scored 24 > pts in EACH of their first 5 games. You think the Arizona ?D? is going to slow them down? Hell NO.
In the last 4 years, GAME SIX teams are 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 3 games... and a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 4 games.

Dallas barely got by the Bengals last week, and have actually dropped each of their last 2 games ATS.
Since 2002, NFL road teams are 12-1-1 O/U off BB home ATS losses... if they WON their last game in straight-up fashion. The Boys were favored by -16 against the Bengals, and won 31-22.
Last 10 years: 7-0 O/U for non-div road favs of fa SU non-div home win but ATS loss as a fav of -14 > points. Play this one ASAP. Late afternoon final score in the desert: 34-27.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:18 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet213 CHI -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 214 ATL
Analysis:
Bears -3

Analysis: The Falcons are a surprising 3-2, but the Bears have too much defense and savvy for Atlanta.

Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has shown a lot of poise and, at times, flashes of greatness. But he's going to have problems with the Bears' well-coached veteran defense that is at full force now with the return of defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who is a difference-maker.

Ryan has received a lot of attention, but very quietly Bears quarterback Kyle Orton is playing extremely well. He's thrown for 801 yards and seven touchdowns during his last three games. The Bears are 14-5 during the last 19 times Orton has started.

The Bears have played stiff competion - Indianapolis, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Falcons own home wins versus Detroit and Kansas City - two of the three worst teams in the NFL - and a crippled Green Bay squad.

The Falcons have failed to produce during the two times they've stepped up and faced tough defenses. They were beaten by identical 24-9 scores against Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Bears' defense is just as tough as those two teams.

The Bears shouldn't be bothered playing in a dome setting either. They just beat the Lions in Detroit last Sunday, 34-7.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:19 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Teddy Cover
20* Chargers

Reg - Bucs -1
Falcons +3
Jags Over 48
Cardinals +5

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:19 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons - Sunday October 12, 2008 1:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Over 43.5 (-110)

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:21 AM

Re: 10-12-08

M@linsky Sund@y
4* St Louis +14
4* Jville/Denver U-49
5* Dallas -4.5

**Mr. IWS** · 10-12-2008, 09:21 AM

Re: 10-12-08

Handicapper: Jimmy Boyd
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3/110 Chicago Bears Play Title: NFC Game of the Year
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
5* NFC Game of the Year on Bears -3 The Bears have been in every single game this season and have really put things together the past two weeks with a big Sunday Night Football win over the Eagles and a blowout road win over the Lions last week. The Falcons are in a letdown spot after a big upset win at Green Bay. This young team has not shown that it can play week in consecutive weeks and that's why each of Atlanta's wins have been followed by a double digit loss. All Atlanta has been able to do is run the football and the Bears defense will make sure that doesn't happen this week. Chicago is 23-8 ATS since 1992 versus good rushing teams averaging more than 130 rushing yards per game, including 6-0 ATS under Lovie Smith in this spot. The Bears are also on a 3-0-1 ATS run on the road. Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games against the Falcons. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6 and 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Take Chicago.

10-12-08

10-12-08

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