10-11-08

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:49 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Jeff Bonds | CFB Total
double-dime bet180 Florida / 179 LSU Under 47.0 SportBet
Analysis:
LSU/Florida UNDER 47 at Bookmaker.com

The LSU Tigers have had quite a long time to prepare for this battle and I anticipate that Les Miles will have a very conservative approach offensively for his freshman QB, as they travel to the Swamp for a night game.

On the other end - questions abound on the health of Percey Harvin and even when he was a 100% against Tennessee - Florida had trouble moving the ball at times.

Both enter a very favorable total trend, as the UNDER is 15-4 in Florida's last 19 games when revenging a loss of seven or fewer points and the UNDER is 12-3 in LSU's last 15 road games against top flight offenses.

Can't see more than 40 points scored in this MONSTER MATCHUP of the previous two national champions.

Sat, 10/11/08 - 12:00 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Total
double-dime bet120 Oklahoma / 119 Texas Over 57.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Oklahoma/Texas OVER 57 at Bookmaker.com

Analysis to be completed tonight - Let's just say that both teams have excelled in the redzone this season and have two very good quarterbacks to make this a TRUE "Red River Shootout

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:49 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Stephen Nover | CFB Side
double-dime bet178 Miami -17.0 (-110) Bodog vs 177 UCF
Analysis:
Miami Hurricanes -17

Analysis: Miami is very young, but there is a class difference here. The Hurricanes are going to have motivation here after losing close ACC games to North Carolina and Florida State in their last two games.

The Hurricanes want to bury their in-state rival. They don't want Central Florida to cut into their fertile recruiting base.

Miami has the athletes to bury Central Florida, which is seriously deficient at the skill positions. The Knights have only scored three touchdowns in three road games.

The Knights also have morale issues.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:50 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Tommy Rider | CFB Total
double-dime bet156 Nevada / 155 New Mexico St. Over 67.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Every single thing points to this game going way over. I actually have a projected score of 88 here, which is three entire touchdowns over the total. This should probably be a 3 Unit play but I've been burned on some totals this season and I have a bigger play for this week. This is one of my classic "One teams runs the ball well against a team that can't stop the run vs. a team that passes the ball well against a team that can't stop the pass.

Nevada ranks fourth in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 308.0 yards per game on the ground. The Wolf Pack has two of the top three rushers in the WAC, quarterback Colin Kaepernick is second at 102.2 yards per game and running back Vai Taua is third at 85.2 yards per game. Nevada is seventh nationally in total offense, averaging 521.2 yards per game. Defensively, Nevada ranks 118th against the pass, allowing a whopping 332 yards per game.

Meanwhile, the Aggies are allowing teams to run over them for 221 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Chase Holbrook will have a big day throwing the football but New Mexico State will have no answers for Nevada's rushing attack.

Nevada is averaging 36.6 points per game, while the Aggies are scoring 27.5 points per game. The two are allowing tons of points, too, with Nevada surrendering 31.6 per contest and New Mexico State allowing 29.0. There is no way around it, this will be a shootout and an easy OVER.

**2 UNIT PLAY**

Sat, 10/11/08 - 8:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side
triple-dime bet180 Florida 6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 179 LSU
Analysis: ***3 UNIT SEC GAME OF THE YEAR*** Analysis to follow.

tommy rider double -dime
illinois -11

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:50 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Right Angle

2*Akron Over

2*Boise Over

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:51 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Spylock

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All 1 unit plays..

NCAA
DateTime Game Pick Stars

10/11/08 Rutgers
12:00 PM Cincinnati -7.5 Cincinnati -7.5 1

10/11/08 Utah -23 Utah -23 1
2:00 PM Wyoming

10/11/08 Vanderbilt -2.5 Vanderbilt -2.5 1
2:30 PM Mississippi State

10/11/08 LouisianaMonroe
7:00 PM Arkansas State -13 Arkansas State -13 1

10/11/08 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State +14 1
8:05 PM Missouri -14

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:51 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

10* Underdog Game Of The Year
Colorado +14

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:51 AM

Re: 10-11-08

COLIN COWHERD

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

Arizona State

Penn State

LSU

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:54 AM

Re: 10-11-08

ASA

College Football Picks
10/11/2008
1:00:00 PM TEXAS A&M AGGIES (+3.5)
over Kansas State Wildcats
ASA 3-Star #134 @ Texas A&M +3.5 over Kansas State, Saturday, October 11th - 1:00 pm CST

With the way KSU’s defense has been playing, there is no reason for them to be favored on the road. The Wildcat stop unit has allowed 577, 509 and 626 yards and 44 PPG their last three games (vs. Louisville, Louisiana-Lafayette & Texas Tech). And while the Aggies have not been a potent offense this season, it looks to us that they are starting to “come around” with Mike Sherman’s new schemes. They should be able to do some damage against the nation’s 102nd ranked defense. Last week vs. Oklahoma State, even though they were beaten badly, the light came on for the Aggie offense. They put up 28 points and 402 yards of total offense (184 rushing and 218 passing). Their 184 yards on the ground came at a 6.1 yards per carry clip which should continue this Saturday vs. a Wildcat defense that has allowed 5 yards per carry this season. QB Jerrod Johnson, who subbed for the injured Stephen McGee the last two weeks is getting better. However, there is a chance McGee returns from an injured shoulder this week. Either way, expect the Aggies to move the ball on Saturday. We mentioned earlier about the defensive struggles the Cats have had their last three games. Well those deficiencies go back further to last season. If you take out their two “cupcake” games this year vs. North Texas and Montana State, this Kansas State defense has been absolutely shredded their last 6 games. You saw the numbers for this year where they have allowed 1,712 yards in their LAST THREE GAMES, however let’s glance back at the end of 2007. They faced off vs. Fresno State, Missouri and Nebraska, the Wildcats allowed 1,678 yards on those final three of last year. Thus, minus the North Texas and Montana State games this year, KSU has allowed a horrible 3,390 total yards their last six games (vs. opponents with at least a pulse). That’s an average of 565 yards per game! This KSU team is not the Bill Snyder led Wildcats of old. Their defense is weak, their running game is suspect and they can’t win on the road. They have only won 2 of their last 9 games dating back to last season and those wins were against an 0-5 North Texas team and a Division 1AA Montana State team. Their road woes are worse. This team is just 2-13 SU their last 15 road tilts dating back to 2005. Not a team you would want to back in the role of road favorite. We’ll fade them here and take A&M to win this game at home.

10/11/2008
1:30:00 PM MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (+2.5)
over Vanderbilt Commodores
ASA 3-Star #130 @ Mississippi State (+2.5) vs. Vanderbilt, Saturday, October 11th - 1:30 pm CST

Well, Vanderbilt is now 5-0 after a 14-13 win over Auburn on Saturday. As far as we’re concerned they are the worst undefeated team in the country. We give the Commodores credit for being unbeaten, however this is not a team you want laying points on the road. They aren’t that good quite yet. Well Vandy finally put up more yardage than their opponent for once. That out gained an offensively challenged Auburn team by 55 yards. The Dores did that by gaining only 263 yards on the day. This team only averages 278 total YPG so they are not a team that is going to run away with any games. Before last week, Vanderbilt was actually out gained in each of their previous three games which were wins against Ole Miss, Rice and South Carolina. Not only were they out yarded, it was a drastic difference with their opponents in those three games netting 1,117 yards combined while Vandy only came up with 771 total yards in those contest. In other words, they were winning games they probably shouldn’t have been. Mississippi State is just 1-4 on the year, however they are a very dangerous home dog in this game. They have had two full weeks off because of last Saturday’s bye and they have played very well in their two SEC games this season easily covering both. The Dogs lost 3-2 at home vs. Auburn as a 10-point dog. They also traveled to one of the toughest venues in the county, not to mention one of the best teams in the nation, and lost 34-24 @ LSU as a 24-point puppy. This Vanderbilt team is not accustomed to being “at the top of the mountain” in the SEC. In fact, they have been a road favorite in the SEC just 3 times since 1995. They are 0-3 ATS in those games. They have been winning with smoke and mirrors as their offense is among the worst in the nation (114th in total yards). They now are laying points on the road vs. a rested team with a pretty good defense. Those are not the ingredients for success. We’ll call for the out right upset as Mississippi State wins this one at home.

10/11/2008
2:30:00 PM GEORGIA BULLDOGS (-12.5)
over Tennessee Volunteers
ASA 4-Star #144 @ Georgia (-12.5) over Tennessee - October 11th 2:30 pm CST

Check back here shortly for our analysis.

10/11/2008
6:00:00 PM BAYLOR BEARS (-4.5)
over Iowa State Cyclones
ASA 5-Star #124 @Baylor (-4) vs. Iowa State, Saturday, October 11th 6:00 pm CST.

The Bears were playing pretty good football until they ran into gigantic buzz saw last week in Oklahoma. A hiccup in that game was to be expected as the Sooners are playing fantastic football right now. OU whipped Baylor 49-17 as was to be expected. However, watch this week as the boys from Waco bounce back. Before running into the Sooners, the Bears had won 2 of their previous 3 games with their only loss coming @ UConn by just 3 points. This team is starting to play much better on offense as they are now grasping new coach Art Briles complex system. They are especially efficient running the ball as they stand 16th nationally in that category averaging 218 yards per game on an impressive 5.5 yards per carry. Their freshman QB Robert Griffin is a very tough match up for any defense as he has not only passed for 831 yards but he has also run for nearly 500 this year. That’s a ASA’s SEC Game of the Week This section of 1st & Goal has our SEC Game of the Week. We have great ties or contacts in this region and have always done well with our SEC picks. See who we like this week below. terrible match up for an Iowa State team that has struggled to stop the run in 2008. The Cyclones are allowing their opponents to rake them for 175 YPG on nearly 5 yards per carry. That ranks them near the bottom of Division 1A at 94th. Baylor’s offense is tough to prepare for and ISU will have serious problems containing them on Saturday. This will be a tough game mentally for ISU. That’s because this team was on the verge of a HUGE upset last week and home and blew it. They led Kansas 20-0 at halftime and couldn’t hold on. It would have been the Cyclones first win over a ranked team since 2005. The Jayhawks took control immediately in the second half scoring TD’s on their first three possessions to take a 21-20 lead. Iowa State had the ball with just over one minute remaining and a chance to drive into field goal range a get a win. They were unable to move the ball and lost 35-33. Now going on the road will be tough. Iowa State has played two road games this year and lost both @ UNLV and @ Iowa. This is a young team that will have a tough time bouncing back in this spot. Baylor will be ready to atone for last week’s big home loss.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:54 AM

Re: 10-11-08

RAS

Two side plays for Week 7:

South Carolina (-1) at Kentucky - 9:30am Pacific - Game #125-126
A win this week would bring the Gamecocks back to .500 in SEC play with three of their last four conference games all at home. South Carolina would love to get a do over on their two early season losses at Vanderbilt and vs Georgia where they had significant total yard edges. They lost each game by just a touchdown and finished both games with a -2 turnover ratio. After starting the year as a backup QB Smelley is now firmly entrenched as the starter, is coming off his best game of the season, and was helped by the return of top WR McKinley who had missed the previous three games due to injury. The Gamecock defense, ranked 6th nationally, has been strong all season. Kentucky is getting a lot of respect for their close loss at #2 Alabama last week, but by all accounts it was Alabama's worst performance of the season following an emotional win at Georgia. Nonetheless, Kentucky was outrushed 282 to 35 yards, benefited from a +1 turnover ratio, and was really only in the game due to some timely big plays on offense. QB Hartline now ranks a dismal 95th nationally in QB rating and UK's offense ranks 93rd in yards per play offense. This is despite having played three of their five games vs a sub par 1-AA (FCS) opponent and two sub par Sun Belt teams, all at home. This does not bode well as they are set to face the best defense they have seen all year. Injuries are not helping, UK will likely be without two starting OL, and a replacement starting OL this week. Promising freshman WR/QB Cobb has been slowed by an ankle injury, and starting WR Ford who caught a TD vs Alabama last week is doubtful with a shoulder injury. It should be noted that UK's leading pass catcher was a RB last week. The Wildcat defense has also been hit by injuries. Starting MLB Johnson has missed last two games and is doubtful this week and his backup Schwindel is expected to miss this week. Starting DB Cobb is back from a two game suspension but it is uncertain how much playing time he will get. South Carolina meanwhile is about as healthy as any team in the nation. The Gamecocks are 11-4 ATS on the road under Spurrier. Give the small number.

Play: #125 South Carolina -1 for 1 UNIT

Ohio at Kent State (+2) - 11:30am Pacific - Game #167-168
The Flashes have only played two true home games in their first six, have taken on two BCS schools, and opened up conference play on the road against the highest rated team in the league in Ball State. Ranking last in the MAC in turnover ratio can explain away some of their lopsided scores, but they have actually had a higher yard per play average in three of their losses at Iowa State, at Ball State, and vs Akron. This despite playing without standout RB Jarvis (ankle) in their last three games. Jarvis led the nation in rushing last year, has practiced this week, and is expected to get playing time vs Ohio. Kent finally had a winnable situation last week vs nearby rival Akron but a costly fumbled punt late in the fourth quarter led to an eventual overtime loss in a game they had led almost throughout and finished with over 100 more total yards. Senior dual threat QB Edelman (25 career starts) is coming off his best game of the season and the entire offense got a big boost from good looking freshman WR Pressley (11 touches, 70 yards) who led the team in receiving in his first game since having redshirt removed. Ohio will unfairly be playing their fifth road game in seven weeks to start the season. The Bobcats have been decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball but particularly on the defensive line which has caused speculation that two players may have their redshirt status removed this week. This does not bode well for them against the MAC's top rushing team in Kent. Ohio replacement starting QB Jackson has now thrown four interceptions in his last two games against 1-A opponents. The Bobcats were outgained by a whopping 2.8 yards per play last week at Western Michigan. With an 0-5 record vs 1-A schools and dismal efforts each of the last two weeks, Ohio should not be laying points on the road to any team with a pulse. Take the live dog.

Play: #168 Kent State +2 for 1 UNIT

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:55 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Teddy Covers

Big Ticket - Arkansas
3* Northwestern
2* Central Michigan
4* Ohio State
3* Okie State
3* Georgia
3* LA Tech
3* FLA International

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:55 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Lee Sterling NCAA FB Picks

Wisconsin 24 Penn St. 20
Florida 31 LSU 20
Missouri 54 Oklahoma St. 34
Texas 27 Oklahoma 24
Texas Tech 51 Nebraska 26

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:56 AM

Re: 10-11-08

EZ WINNERS Saturday

5* Miss. St. +3 (buy the .5 point)

3* Georgia -12.5

2* S. Carolina -3

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:56 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Glen Mcgrew Blowout Gom Texas Tech
Big 10 Goy Northwestern

**Mr. IWS** · 10-11-2008, 05:56 AM

Re: 10-11-08

Northcoast Big 12 Gow
Baylor

10-11-08

10-11-08

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