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Arizona Cards
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Re: 10-5-08
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
5* Chargers at Dolphins: I'm not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. "Gimmicky," cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the "Wildcat" offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami 'D'. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn't have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers. -
Re: 10-5-08
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami's offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the totalComment
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Re: 10-5-08
Tommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet414 PHI -6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 413 WAS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come
Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet410 MIA 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 409 SDC
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY** This line is at +7 at Bodog so I would advise you to get it while you can. Analysis to come.
Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 IND -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 406 HOU
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to comeComment
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Re: 10-5-08
Jeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet430 JAC -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 429 PIT
Analysis:
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at Bookmaker.com
This game is an absolute gift at this price - considering that Jacksonville has been pretty much the only NFL team to enjoy success against Pittsburgh over the past 10 years.
It's even more of a gift considering that Pittsburgh is coming off TWO highly physical games in back-to-back weeks (Philadelphia/Baltimore)....so physical - that both of its top running backs are banged up (one for the year).
This means Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to throw behind an offensive line that - to put it lightly - doesn't have a prayer this Sunday with the recent injury to guard Kendall Simmons.
When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more than 20 times a game - the Steelers are a terrible 1-7 ATS in the last eight situations.
Jacksonville picks up a BIG VICTORY to keep them from going under .500 (a huge factor in the NFL) and moves the Pittsburgh Steelers to 0-15 ATS in their last 15 road defeats. They've failed to cover the previous 14 by more than 11 points!Comment
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Re: 10-5-08
tephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet422 DEN / 421 TAM Over 48.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Buccaneers-Broncos Over 48
Analysis: The Denver Broncos have gone 'over' in all four of their matchups this season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos can't stop anybody, allowing an average of 34.3 points in their last three games, while averaging nearly 34 points.
The Broncos have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL. Their linebackers are below average, too. In addition, cornerback Dre Bly has slowed up considerably. Tampa Bay can attack this. The Buccaneers don't have great skill position players, but they have a very sharp offensive-minded coach in Jon Gruden. He'll have veteran Brian Griese probe Denver's many weak spots. Earnest Graham is an underrated running back and veteran Warrick Dunn can be effective, too, versus this defense. The Buccaneers have gone 'over' in eight of their last 10 games.
Tampa Bay's defense is good, but small. It's not a dominant unit. Jay Cutler certainly can pass on the Buccaneers. Brandon Marshall may be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now. Denver has gone 'over' in 14 of its past 17 home games. The Broncos also have gone 'over' 81 percent of the time during their last 27 games on grass. The Broncos also are 11-1 to the 'over' following a loss.Comment
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Re: 10-5-08
Vernon Croy's **20 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK** (76% Overall this NFL Season)
Ungraded
Handicapper: Vernon Croy
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: 20 Units, Take the Under, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are solid defensively. New England's defense has allowed just 19.3 ppg this season and 10 points in their only road game while the 49ers defense has allowed just 262.5 ypg at home this season and 18 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 games as a home dog of 3 points or less and the Patriots offense has struggled without Tom Brady this season averaging just 16.3 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 home games and their offense will not be able to get much done against the Patriots veteran defense. The O/U is 5-11 for the Patriots in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and I look for an offensive struggle by both of these teams Sunday afternoon. Take the Under as my NFL Total of the Week and make sure you get on my NFL Smash of the Year which I have winning hands down Sunday as my 76% season run continues.Comment
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Re: 10-5-08
Jimmy Sirody
League: NFL
Event: Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles on 10/05/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Philadelphia and Washington have made it a habit of going under, turning the trick in 20 of the past 31 meetings. The trend that grabbed my attention is the one that reveals the Skins going under in 19 of 23 games on the road versus good defensive teams--allowing less than 285 yards per game since '92. The Eagles have slipped under in 12 of 15 as favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 and in 24 of their last 31 at home in October.Comment
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Re: 10-5-08
The Prezzz
League: NFL
Event: Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion:
8* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at Dallas
Conditions: 70 degrees with light winds swirling inside the mostly enclosed venue It was just a matter of time before the Cowboys experienced the bad "T.O Factor" and their first bit of adversity in 2008. After sleepwalking through a 26-24 loss to the Washington Redskins Sunday afternoon, the Boyz received their quarterly wakeup call. The call that nearly all NFL teams receive. Ask the Broncos? Dallas was admiring themselves far too much heading into last week's divisional matchup against Washington -- that all changed their home loss to the hated Skins.
Bengals' defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who spent 10-plus years with the Cowboys as an assistant coach and coordinator and is now the Bengals' DC. He knows the subtle weaknesses of Tony Romo and will force his hand early on in this game. Expect the Bengals to give up everything underneath on Sunday afternoon, but eventually realize that Romo has grown enough to exploit the soft holes in their zones.
We expect zero man coverage from the Bengals, little to no blitzing and a ton of exotic looks. If Cincy had an ounce of talent on the stop-side of the football we'd consider giving them a chance and jump head first on the 17-points Dallas is giving up. Romo is careless, that's his gunslinger mentality, and he'll give the Bengals more than one short field on Sunday.
The winless Bengals are a mess; and with or without Carson Palmer this game is all about offense, big plays by both defenses and a lot of points as a result. With Palmer under center the two teams will combine to cross the 60-point mark, without him the contest still topples 50 in total points. There's no guarantee Palmer will play (TP sources report he will throw on Thursday, practice on Friday and start Sunday), but the Cowboys are the real story here. They will be more balanced in their play calling and shred a piss pour Cincy defense. Dallas can throw four capable receivers at the Bengals defense and Cincinnati has no matchup answer for TE Jason Witten.
However, Dallas' pass defense is suspect, and no matter who is tossing the football to Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh -- this is the strongest total on the Week 5 card.
Once Palmer is announced as the starter for Sunday's game, the total in this game will creep upward. Get down on the current 44 mark now.
The OVER is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in October.
Cowboys score at least 35 points Sunday making this a Big Game OVER the TOTAL play.
8 UNIT Play on the OVERComment
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