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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis December 8, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a compact 8-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 5. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5 (8:25 PM PST)

1-Senga Nightmare (12-1)-Did the heavy lifting last time and raced big to finish 2nd. That was the 1st start at this class after a win against cheaper. Offers more value than others and could cash the top check if steps up off the last start.
3-Starzznstripes (6-1)-This mare raced well and finished behind the one above. Not sure why she earns a 6-1 morning line, and my thinking is the price will be better. Willing to use some price shots in this leg and this gal should be racing near the top of the stack.
6-Changing Colors (10-1)-Beat this kind 2 back which was the 1st start of the meet. Then moved up to face Open mares and was in too tough. Versatile mare who has gate speed and could race with the leaders or come off cover. Either way, should be a threat.
8-Halleysbigcomet (6-1)-Steps up after winning handily in the 1st start on Lasix and that was her CalX debut. Interesting race with the program chalk #9 at 4-1. Will use this Hawthorne shipper off the last effort and could be even better with a race on this surface.

Race 6 (8:45 PM PST)

3-Heavens Gona Rock (7/2)-Didn't get a smooth trip and still came 2nd. Got a similar trip in the race before and was 2nd again. Has hit the board in all 3 CalX starts and has taken 1 picture. Moves in a couple of spots and could benefit from a better drive.
5-Rock's Image (2-1)-This was the odds-on chalk in the last 3 races but has rewarded his backers with only 1 win. Gerry Longo owns, trains and drives. The 4-year-old could pick up another win if takes control and the fractions are more friendly than last week.

Race 7 (9:05 PM PST)

2-Pecorino (15-1)-Mark Kennedy doesn't win many races and this veteran is only 1-31 this year. Considering the negatives, the 8-year-old was very game down the stretch last week. Got the top off the gate, which is not typical, this time could get a pocket ride and have more left down the lane.
7-Gee Wilikers (5/2)-Was used hard into a 55.2 half and faded down the lane to finish a beaten 2nd. Will look for a smoother journey in the 2nd start in town and will be a much better price than 1/9.

Race 8 (9:25 PM PST)

4-Biggiessecondshot (3-1)-This will be the 2nd race since the beginning of June and lands in a soft spot. The Johnson barn has been clicking, James Kennedy gets the call and will look for a big try.
5-Bekkums Fancy Start (5/2)-The last 2 starts have been dull, and they followed a win in the 1st CalX race this year. Drops to a better spot, similar to the level of her 11-17 win. Does good work here winning 6 of 16 and will look for a bounce back effort tonight.

0.20 Pick 4

1,3,6,8/3,5/2,7/4,5
Total Bet=$6.40

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Oaklawn Park Late Pick 4 Ticket | Friday, Dec. 8 December 8, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
OAKLAWN PARK PICK 4
Friday, Dec. 8

If the fields remain intact for opening day at Oaklawn Park this Friday, Dec. 8, there will be 14,400 possible combinations for the Late Pick 4 wager. All four races, including the featured $150,000 Advent Stakes for 2-year-olds, drew double-digit entries.

OP 7th race (4:18 P.M. EST) -- MY FRIEND AMY rallied for five allowance victories and three seconds in her last 15 starts at various distances. Prior to her victory at Delta Downs last out, her previous four races produced five black-type runners and three allowance winners. FASHION RAGE beat MY FRIEND AMY when they last met in June. She ran third off a 3-1/2-month layoff last out, bumping twice with inner rivals while chasing pace controller Altered Shot, a $500k earner who won 4 of her last 8 on the main track. YOU LITTLE VIXEN was visually impressive in a wire-to-wire debut romp at Prairie Meadows. She was no match in a follow-up 6-1/2F allowance at Keeneland that featured Grade 2-placed Accede and two next-out allowance winners with 88 and 86 Beyers, respectively.

OP 8th race (4:46 P.M. EST) -- Eight of the 10 entrants can nearly double their six-figure bankroll with a victory in this $140,000 6F allowance. They last raced at eight different tracks, with four looking for repeat victories. Hit the ‘ALL’ button in the second leg of the Pick 4.

OP 9th race (5:14 P.M. EST) -- VALENTINE CANDY drifted 4-wide at the top of the stretch and edged next-out stakes winner Patriot Spirit for third in the $200,000 Bowman Mill Stakes at Keeneland. She finished behind unbeaten multiple stakes winner Glengarry (3-3, $177k) and razor sharp Normandy Hero. MOLLY’S TOWN raced inside and survived a three-way duel for the lead before a trio of longshots passed by in the stretch in the $250,000 Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill Downs. She demolished Indiana-bred rivals for four wins by a combined 24 lengths to start her career and is a big threat on the cutback in distance in the $150,000 Advent Stakes.

OP 10th race (5:40 P.M. EST) -- IN GOOD TASTE took back after an early stumble, rallied between rivals on the turn, awaited room at the top of the stretch and hit her best stride too late when angled out at the eighth pole. She will be undervalued considering the 6F race produced 7/0-0-1 follow-up performances, but she remains dangerous because trainer Brad Cox excels with second-out starters. CATALYST, a $525,000 sales buy and daughter of 2018 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, debuts for Asmussen off a :48.2 gate work over the track. Her dam, Tamboz, produced several graded stakes-placed runners.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
OP 7th Race: 4, 5, 8
OP 8th Race: ALL
OP 9th Race: 4, 10
OP 10th Race: 6, 8
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $60

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Fair Grounds - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 Foolish Steve
He might get the right kind of run while tracking the pace today, and it wouldn't be a total shock to see him turn the tables on last year's winner. Tactical chance.


#6 Fired Up Tiger
She's probably supposed to be tough in here while trying to defend her easy score in this race last year, but she doesn't always have a whole lot of fight in her when she gets headed, so I wonder if she might be vulnerable at a short price?


#3 Liken It
Top heavy race between these three it seems, and this one has a little versatility in his running style that might let his rider pick a pretty nice spot just tucked off Fired Up Tiger early on.


Race Summary
Foolish Steve and Fired Up Tiger look likely to settle this one again as the top two finishers from last year's edition, but the former might be a touch better price as the close second choice?


Fair Grounds - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#1 Second of July
He's got some decent committed pace while meeting a handful of pressing types, so I wonder if he might be able to scoot away just a little bit early and find enough to hold. Think he controls this one.


#4 Magic Castle
He has enough pace to stay right up on the engine with the top choice while stretching out again, and he's probably a really snug fit with the locals at this level today. Wouldn't surprise.


#7 Fast Break
He can probably be tough if he holds that east coast form, and his tactical pace should keep him in a great spot while just relaxed off the pace. One of the obvious ones.


Race Summary
Second of July and Magic Castle could wind up in a cat-and-mouse game while racing near the top, and the former might be able to just control the race enough to get home.


Fair Grounds - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Strummin Mary
She has some grinding ability that might work in her favor if the pace starts to come back, and maybe she still has something a touch better to offer in this third start of the fall. Mild appeal at a midrange price.


#6 Nicely Unified
She might have finally found her group after knocking on the door in recent starts, and she should be in a perfect spot to take advantage of this if the chalk on the outside packs it in late.


#9 Madam Blue
I don't know. Dangerous pace should be able to control the race from the outside while dropping hard off a special weight fade for a team that likes to win races, and this certainly is the kind of group that some sharp speed could put away turning for home. That said, the price is probably going to be short with form that does not appear to be heading in a good direction. Your call.


Race Summary
Think this one goes through Madam Blue and Nicely Unified -- in that order -- but Strummin Mary might offer a decent enough price to take a small play to see if she can grind past these late.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#7 MATOULA (7-2)
Well-handled in win at bottom level, can return quick claim dividend.


#2 JOYA DEL SUR (2-1)
Two runaway wins and a second in last three starts at this level.


#5 ESPERANNNA (8-1)
Can make good use of her speed at a distance which she conquered twice.


Race Summary
MATOULA, a lightly-raced but productive 5-year-old, steps up off the claim after a 7F romp. She was well-rated up front and drew away from the 6-to-5 favorite in the stretch. She figures up close throughout and is worth a win and place bet at 7-2 on the morning line.


Laurel Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#2 SAVOY (6-1)
Good price offsets risky class drop he was claimed six weeks ago.


#4 SENATE CHAMBER (2-1)
Joins class droppers, second as fave two back, winless this year.


#3 GRAND ESCAPE (5-2)
Out-dueled by 5-1/2F winner, caught for place spot by deep closers.


Race Summary
SAVOY, scratched by the vet in a Nov. 16 starter allowance, drops in below his claim level. The $222k career money earner ran second to 5-to-2 and 7-to-5 winners before his last start. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-4 exacta box.


Laurel Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#9 FOLE’S NOTION (5-1)
Awakened with allowance upset on barn switch, value remains.


#2 TENEBRIS (5-2)
Drifted late on lead at one mile, held off deep closer to prevail at Aqueduct.


#5 HEADS OR TAILS (3-1)
First or second in 5 of 8 starts on the main track this year.


Race Summary
FOLE’S NOTION stalked the pace 4-wide, accelerated into the turn and put away the pace-setting favorite at the sixteenth pole en route to a 40-1 shocker. He could sit a similar trip from the outside and make it two in a row for this barn. Bet to win and place.