Monday 8/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:10 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Pick Analysis

August 28, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card with a 0.50 Pick 5 sequence starting in Race 5 and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 8, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

3-Rock Diamonds N (4-1)-Finished 2nd to a well-meant winner and could land in the pocket or on the point. Either could work for a picture.
5-Fortifty (3-1)-Finished well in a needed race after missing a few weeks and now drops to a good level for success. Can leave to get a good seat and Brennan can work a winning a trip for the Burke entry.
6-Captivate Hanover (9/2)-Comes off a drop and pop win and will swing for a price here. Has very good gate speed and could be tough to collar if Dube gets the top without much strain.

Race 9 (9:40 EST PM)

1-What Stanley Got A (4-1)-Worked to get into the pocket behind the eventual winner #5. The same trip could happen here but Stratton leaves from the inside and could get the top or the 2 hole more efficiently.
3-Lou’s Sweetrevenge (5-1)-Came out of the same race as my other selections. Did step up, raced from the back, and closed to finish 3rd. The driver change to Joe Bongiorno could help and will look for a more aggressive steer at a square price.
5-Backstreet Shadow (5/2)-Blasted out and worked to get on the point into a .26 first quarter. Kakaley provided a nice steer going the middle half in 57 seconds and was a clear winner. The same performance probably wins again but the others can challenge at a better price.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Alluneedisfaith N (3-1)-Beaten favorite had a rough trip in last and now draws inside. Kakaley should protect the rail and if so chances for a picture improve. Fits well with this crew but needs a good steer.
4-Feelin Western (6-1)-Looking for an honest pace and that is necessary for this team Stratton entry to cash the top check. Went the back half in 55.2 in last but wasn't close enough to the leaders to post a win. Needs the right set up but should offer value.
6-Moonlight Shadow (4-1)-Bartlett is the usual pilot and he returns to the scene tonight. Has enough gate speed to out-leave some that drew inside.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

3-Regulator (5/2)-Beat this kind last week and was able to get on the point from the rail. Bartlett set some soft fractions through the 1st half and then dialed it up when needed. May not land on top off the gate but should be no worse than in the pocket.
4-Windson Ricky (4-1)-Similar to the one above, got the top and didn't look back at this condition last week. Has a post edge on #5 who can also leave, so may land on top again. Could double up, won't be 10-1 this time but should still be a fair price.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

3,5,6/1,3,5/1,4,6/3,4
Total Bet=$54

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:10 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #6

#2 Generous Tipper	Hoping the presence of a few bigger named barns in here will help keep the price playable, as she took a nice move forward in that second start and could still have another step in the right direction in her.
#4 Aspiring Comedian	Pletcher debuter probably isn't meeting the deepest field we've ever seen on paper here, and she's bringing a reliable series of works to this first try and wouldn't surprise.
#6 Dynamis	He and #7 Benvolio both have some appeal on paper while going first out for top teams, so get a good look at them both on the track and tote ahead of this.
Race Summary	Generous Tipper may offer a decent enough price off a good run with similar last time out, and I like that he showed some positional pace that day that would keep him in another good spot here.

Ellis Park - Race #7

#8 Uninvited Guest	Think there is some mild mid-range price appeal here as this guy turned in a good first effort for the new team on the dirt last out and has some better back turf form than his page would suggest.
#7 F Five	No doubt he's the one to beat after a sharp score last time out, and his dangerous pace and ability to relax make him a major player in just about any spot right now.
#1 Tiz of Thee	Think he'll find at least one or two of these a little too tough today, but there are a few tries on his page that might make him interesting for a small piece of this while trying tougher.
Race Summary	Uninvited Guest just missed last out against a small field on the main, but I think he'll be in the right spot at the right kind of price into the far turn today. Willing to take a shot here.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#2 Insignia	Never going to argue with anyone trying to tackle a short-priced favorite, but her comeback was impossibly sharp and hinted that there might be more here today, as she wasn't working for it too hard for it.
#3 Fogo Island	She looks like an obvious alternative after a nice first try over the local footing, and she should be in a forward spot to try to manage the race with the top choice in a similar position.
#6 Kantex	Think the price will be right to give her a chance to grab a piece of this, as she only has the one route running line on her page and might appreciate this unique layout that is a touch sprintier than the two-turn Oaklawn run.
Race Summary	Insignia is probably going to be a handful with anything like her last one, and she has always been a high-potential performer without a bad run on her page. Short-priced anchor in the late plays.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:11 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#1 ANA L (7-2)	Rallied for second behind front-end running faves at 5-1/2F and 6F, gets added ground.
#6 WREAKING HAVOC (9-5)	Broke maiden for $30k at Oaklawn, plunges after useful allowance try.
#4 UPTOWN CHARLOTTE (6-1)	Brief stretch bid at leader before winning fave passed by them all.
Race Summary	ANA L gained late in a pair of shorter sprints recently but couldn’t reach the even-money and 3-to-5 winners, respectively. Like her chances to prevail in this spot but wouldn’t expect 7-2 odds. Bet to win and place.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#3 CLEMSON TIGER (7-5)	Towers over this field, key in gimmicks to offset short price.
#2 GOLD WING (4-1)	‘Gained position’ while 3-wide on the turn, leveled off against 1-to-5 winner.
#6 PERCENTAGE (15-1)	Sharpened speed with blinkers last out but fell to 0-for-12 at this distance.
Race Summary	CLEMSON TIGER, first or second in his last five starts, faces seven rivals who are a combined 0-for-35 this year. He fits the conditions perfectly and will take some beating at another short price. Play 3-2 and 3-6 exactas for some value.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#3 PREGAME (10-1)	Right set-up, right price for third start back from a nine-month layoff.
#6 SUPER GREMLIN (6-1)	Ran 1-2-3 since arrival at Presque Isle, takes some catching on stretch-out.
#7 R ADMIRAL (2-1)	Led at stretch call in last four starts, prevailed in five-horse field.
Race Summary	PREGAME rallied inside until the stretch, got past the 4-to-5 favorite to finish second, now steps up in class for his third start of a cycle. He projects an ideal stalking trip off several speed horses and is worth a win and place bet at 10-1 on the morning line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 4:03P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * WISHY WASHY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SMILE LIKE KYLE: Horse's a verage winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). CAN'T SAY ELLY MAE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISTER MACHO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equi base Class Rating at the distance/surface. BARN STORMER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
5	WISHY WASHY	10/1	7/2
2	SMILE LIKE KYLE	9/2	8/1
6	CAN'T SAY ELLY MAE	3/1	8/1
3	MISTER MACHO	15/1	9/1
8	BARN STORMER	6/5	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SMILE LIKE KYLE	2	9/2	Front-runner	68	58	64.8	62.6	54.1
3	MISTER MACHO	3	15/1	Front-runner	69	64	61.6	40.8	27.8
8	BARN STORMER	8	6/5	Alternator/Front-runner	58	54	60.0	53.0	47.5
6	CAN'T SAY ELLY MAE	6	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	69	60	59.0	61.4	55.4
4	MACHO JUSTICE	4	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	59	62.0	56.4	48.4
5	WISHY WASHY	5	10/1	Trailer	77	73	38.8	66.4	60.4
7	RUNNING SMART	7	20/1	Trailer	56	45	14.8	39.8	26.8
1	COG	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	61	34.0	51.4	40.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort EriePURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 3	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)
Maiden Claiming $6,250 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 55 • Purse: $18,900 • Post: 3:56P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * PICK A PENNY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ALWA Y'S ROSIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HONEYS DIAMOND: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
5	PICK A PENNY	4/1	3/1
3	ALWAY'S ROSIE	2/1	7/1
1	HONEYS DIAMOND	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ALWAY'S ROSIE	3	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	53	54	48.0	42.6	36.1
5	PICK A PENNY	5	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	63	44.0	52.6	49.6
4	WHISPER ME A SONG	4	3/1	Trailer	0	0	51.2	37.9	31.4
1	HONEYS DIAMOND	1	6/1	Trailer	62	43	26.9	48.1	43.1
7	CLOSING BRIEF'S	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	42	22.1	31.7	20.7
2	LEA'S SUNSHINE	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.7	23.7	12.2
6	SAGED ENERGY	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	2.9	28.8	16.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:12 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:27pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#1 ANA L (ML=7/2)
#3 ITALIAN TWIN (ML=7/2)
#4 UPTOWN CHARLOTTE (ML=6/1)

ANA L - This filly registered a good speed figure of 74 in her last race. That figure should be lofty enough to prove victorious today. This filly is in fine condition, having run a good race on August 14th, finishing second. Ran a sizzling time for the last quarter on August 14th at Presque Isle Downs. Anything close in this race should get the job done. ITALIAN TWIN - Based on this mare's recent efforts, she should profit from today's shorter distance. This mare is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Martin. Trainer, Martin, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. UPTOWN CHARLOTTE - This filly is in good condition. Finished fifth on August 8th. I just may give this one a shot. Should rebound off last race where she did run out of the top three, but was within 5 lengths at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WREAKING HAVOC (ML=9/5), #5 FAMILY BAND (ML=5/1), #7 SGT RECKLESS USMC (ML=8/1),

WREAKING HAVOC - Improbable that this horse will finish better than she did last time out when finishing fifth. This filly hasn't had any recent success in sprint contests. Not easy to bet on her in this event. FAMILY BAND - Not probable for this thoroughbred to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint race. 5/1 is too low of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races. This entrant ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig last out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably lose today running that fig. SGT RECKLESS USMC - A bit of a lackluster try when this filly finished fourth. This filly registered a speed figure in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 ANA L to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:12 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park All Turf Pick 3

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 66

ELP - R5 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 STANDOUTSENSATION 4/1
# 6 CANDI GIRL 7/2
# 3 PLEASINGLY 15/1

I think STANDOUTSENSATION is a quite good choice. She has to be carefully examined given the competitive speed numbers. Gutierrez will most likely be able to get this filly to break out early for this event. Calhoun and Gutierrez have won 22 percent of their races giving this equine a quite good chance. CANDI GIRL - She must be carefully examined given the very good speed numbers. Cox has her trained admirably to break quickly out of the starting gate. Corrales has an excellent return on investment over the past 30 days (+15) which should probably help gamblers with this pick. PLEASINGLY - Trainer has produced the best results in this group with runners in their first race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:13 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 CLOUDY BAY 5/1
# 2 MORE THAN GLORY 6/1
# 6 MISCHIEVOUS GAL 3/1

I think CLOUDY BAY is a very good choice. Looks solid against this field and will almost certainly be one of the front-runners. Must be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last race. MORE THAN GLORY - Is a strong contender based on figures posted lately under today's conditions. MISCHIEVOUS GAL - Going in a turf route race gives this filly a quite good shot. Ought to be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2023, 06:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #3 - Post: 5:01pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#3 VALLEJO (ML=8/1)
#11 SWEET SASSICAIA (ML=4/1)
#4 FLOWERS APRIORITY (ML=12/1)

VALLEJO - Taking a trip down in class; has the capability to make her presence felt. SWEET SASSICAIA - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +51. This filly is in good condition. Finished third on Aug 11th. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. Another way to judge class is earnings per start (EPS). This horse has the uppermost in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish line. FLOWERS APRIORITY - Of all the entrants in today's race only this mare has won over the course.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 MISS JAMIE (ML=7/2), #6 GETONOUTTAHERE (ML=9/2), #2 GET OUT TONIGHT (ML=5/1),

MISS JAMIE - Speed kills. Plenty of early zip in this event compromises this animal's hopes. GETONOUTTAHERE - This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last two races. Tough to put your cash on this early speedball. Too much zip in the contest. GET OUT TONIGHT - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance events recently. Not probable to see her doing it today either. Speed kills. Plenty of early zip in this affair compromises this animal's chances.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 VALLEJO is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,4,11] with [3,4,11] with [2,3,4,8,11] with [2,3,4,8,11] Total Cost: $36

**ConleyPicks** · 08-28-2023, 09:42 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Du Quoin State Fair

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 14
6	6	GOOMSTER	7/2	Seekman, Travis - 16	523.89
5	5	NIKO MAN	1/1	Bender, Atlee - 12	454.57
2	2	AINT NO MOJO	4/1	Avenatti, Wyatt - 16	448.66
3	3	LOUS ANDIAMO	12/1	Leonard, Casey - 23	425.82
1	1	TANKMETODENNYLAND	30/1	Cox, Mike - 13	404.71
7	7	COAL CREEK	30/1	Finn, Jared - 10	378.01
4	4	WHATTA YEAR	12/1	Franco, Juan - 11	371.11
8	8	FOX VALLEY CORSO	30/1	Wilfong, Kyle - 13	279.20

**ConleyPicks** · 08-28-2023, 09:42 AM

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Grand River Raceway

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/28 GRAND RIVER RCY
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 8- - PACE 08/28 GRAND RIVER RCY
1 Malvolio 5/2 517.69 100 58.3 73.8 B/F 1:56.5 Henry, Travis J 24
7 Better Than Cash 9/2 478.25 80 55.0 74.0 1:57.5 Fillion, Samuel 20
4 Bohannon 6/1 470.46 80 70.0 69.0 B/F 1:58.5 Mackenzie, Paul G 16
5 Silverback Jack 4/1 465.92 80 10.0 67.1 1:57.0 Kelly, Colin 29
6 Thedoginthefight 3/1 445.67 80 36.7 IM 69.0 1:58.5 Ryan, Jason D 21

**ConleyPicks** · 08-28-2023, 09:42 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
9	9	BRING THE THUNDER	5/2	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 26	474.92
7	7	VENOM	7/2	Merriman, Aaron - 25	462.21
4	4	MIGHTY BREEZE	7/2	Lems, Chris - 11	455.35
1	1	ROSE RUN WALKER	5/1	Davis, Billy Jr - 16	443.98
3	3	OVERLORD	7/1	Myers, Hunter - 15	442.71
6	6	MAXDADDY BLUE CHIP	20/1	Ebersole, Luke - 9	438.52
5	5	HOWMACSBLACKJACK	20/1	Day, James - 4	432.78
2	2	ST LADS THRILLER	20/1	Noble, Koltin - 6	366.84
8	8	SNOW BURN	20/1	Tharps, Eric Jr - 9	314.78

**ConleyPicks** · 08-28-2023, 09:42 AM

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Du Quoin State Fair

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/28 DUQUOIN STATE FAIR
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 2- - PACE 08/28 DUQUOIN STATE FAIR
4 Great Seats 2/1 738.06 100 26.7 87.0 1:49.9 Avenatti, Wyatt 18
2 Hidden Assassin 4/1 703.19 80 50.0 86.0 1:51.7 Seekman, Travis 18
3 Downbytheocean 5/2 682.11 80 30.0 90.3 1:50.8 Wilfong, Kyle 14
6 Caviart Richmond 9/1 615.91 80 45.0 87.0 1:53.7 Leonard, Casey 10
10 Dash Around 25/1 595.91 50 >21 55.0 77.0 1:53.6 Husted, Kyle 16

**ConleyPicks** · 08-28-2023, 09:43 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Red Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 1:57 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$7100 - FILLIES & MARES NW $4,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 BAROCKNROLLDREAM 5/2
# 7 SWEET LINDY 7/1
# 2 MISS CADET 2/1

BAROCKNROLLDREAM will not be denied the win for this race. Has the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 83 speed fig. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 81. Should be considered for a bet in this contest. Has one of the most compelling win percentages in the grouping and may be able to add to those figures right here. SWEET LINDY - The 7 position sports an above average win percentage at The Red Mile. MISS CADET - Could most likely dominate this grouping given the 76 speed rating achieved in her most recent competition. With Wrenn in the race bike, watch out for this standardbred to get the win.