Saturday 7/22/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 351013

    Saturday 7/22/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 351013

    #2
    Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 7/22/23


    July 22, 2023
    “What You Need to Know” - Del Mar
    by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst


    Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
    *
    For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
    *
    Grade Descriptions:
    Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
    Grade B=Solid Play.
    Grade C=Least preferred or pass
    Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
    Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Wyfire; 2-Strike That
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

    Forecast: Wyfire plummets in class and returns to a dirt track that he’s won on in the past. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. He also gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Aguilar, so let’s hope the class drop is legit and not simply one to entice a claim. Strike That is another with proven winning form over the Del Mar main track. Now in the Steve Knapp barn following a $20,000 claim in late May, the veteran gelding returns for the same price following a two month layoff, so, like our top pick, his condition is something of a question mark. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics but it’s a shaky proposition, so if you feel the need to include a few more, go right ahead.

    *

    RACE 2: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
    Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Soul of Midnight
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Jam Session.

    Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a $16,000 restricted (nw-2) extended sprint for older horses. Soul of Midnight found starters allowance foes out of his reach, so this sharp drop in class is warranted. The Dean Pederson-trained son of Straight Fire earned a speed figure when breaking his maiden three races back that can win at this level, and in a field without much early zip he should be on or near the lead throughout. Jam Session is the one to fear most. He was fairly well regarded earlier this year but clearly is being culled from the stable after finishing second as the favorite in a $25,000 affair at Los Alamitos in late June. He projects as a strong pace factor and may get brave against this bunch.

    *

    RACE 3: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C
    Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ice Storm; 13-Upright; 8-Len’s Luck
    Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

    Forecast: Ice Storm is a 10-race maiden and not one to trust, but in this bottom-rung $20,000 maiden claimer the Frosted gelding gets top billing by default. He was beaten a neck when second in a similar affair at Santa Anita while well clear of the rest, including a next out winner, and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough. Upright hits rock bottom and may have found his friends, and although he was fortunate to draw into the race from the also-eligible list he still must leave from the extreme outside post, no bargain going a mile. He has competitive grass numbers there’s no guarantee he’ll run similarly in his first try on dirt. Len’s Luck is re-equipped with blinkers after finishing third at this level at Los Alamitos after some self-caused early trouble. He should be able to at least get a piece of it.

    *

    RACE 4: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
    Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Mrs. Astor; 9-Carole Lombard
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Ruby Nell.

    Forecast: Mrs. Astor was graded stakes placed on turf in Kentucky and earned a career top number in her most recent outing when a respectable third in the Regret Stakes-G3. She lacks tactical speed, but with some help up front the daughter of Lookin At Lucky may be able to produce a winning late kick. Carole Lombard was a stakes winner on grass up north in April and then was out of her element on dirt when far back in the Melair Stakes at Santa Anita. The daughter of Grazen broke her maiden over the local lawn last November and should fire another good shot, though she’s slightly slower on speed figures than our top pick.

    *

    RACE 5: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: C+
    Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Conquest Celsius; 10-Borntostaythirsty.
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Raising Silver.

    Forecast: The newcomers look ordinary so it might finally be graduation day for Conquest Celsius, who makes her fourth career outing with modest but rising speed figures after getting nosed out in a similar California-bred dash at Los Alamitos earlier this month. She’ll likely display good early speed and have every chance in a race lacking in closers. Borntostaythirsty, in the frame in all three starts, didn’t put up much fight when outrun by the heavily backed Pushiness last time out but at least she saved second money. This is an easier bunch and thus makes the daughter of Stay Thirsty the likely choice and one to beat. We’ll try to get by using just these two on the main ticket, but neither are trustworthy, so nothing would surprise us.

    *

    RACE 6: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B+
    Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Moose Mitchell; 5-Escape Route; 3-Principe Carlo
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

    Forecast: This is one of the tougher first level allowance sprints you’ll ever see on this circuit. Moose Mitchell has turned into a monster based on his last two starts, easy wins with huge speed figures while employing a pace-stalking strategy. In his present form, the son of Danzing Candy shouldn’t have any real trouble extended his winning streak to three. Additionally, he’s a two-time winner over the Del Mar main track, so we’re expecting his Santa Anita form to carry over nicely. Escape Route is another with sharp recent speed figures and proven form over the local main track, having finished no worse than second in four prior starts at Del Mar. He’s a first-time gelding for trainer Mark Glatt making his first start since last September, but he’s won fresh in the past and shows a strong series of recent drills that should have him fit and ready. Principe Carlo likewise is launching a comeback, having been away since last August. He’s a three time winner at Del Mar with a work tab that is acceptable, and he was competitive in graded stakes sprints last year while earning numbers that make him a strong fit against this group.

    *

    RACE 7: Post: 5:05 PT Grade: C+
    Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Warrens Candy Girl; 7-Canoodling; 12-Honey Pants; 2-Very Scary
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Ascendancy; 14-Symphony Perfect.

    Forecast: This year’s edition of the Osunitas Stakes over a mile for fillies and mares in a complete grass grab bag with tons of early speed that should allow the closers to have their shot, assuming they can negotiate a decent trip through all the traffic. Warrens Candy Girl is a four time winner over the Del Mar lawn but is one of those deep closers that will need luck to secure a clear path from the quarter pole home. We do know that she’s good enough to tag the speed if everything goes right. Canoodling and the poorly drawn Honey Pants have recent form that make them dangerous but aren’t guaranteed good trips due to their pace-pressing running style. Either one could win or wind up nowhere. Very Scary is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her two-hole post and has numbers against tougher graded stakes competition earlier this year that make her dangerous.

    *

    RACE 8: Post: 5:35 PT Grade: B+
    Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Dua; 1-Ashley; 6-Hope Road
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

    Forecast: You wouldn’t think that a daughter of Arrogate – in this case Dua – would be a likely candidate to win at first asking over five furlongs, but this Bob Baffert-trained filly has trained very much like the Real McCoy. She’s plenty fit and appears to have excellent speed - View Workout Video - though she’s never really been asked to show it. Ashley brought $400,00 at the OBS April Sale after breezing a furlong in :10 flat and looking very much like a quick-auctioned, win early type. Her local works have been slow and easy - View Workout Video - but make no mistake, this daughter of Into Mischief has plenty of zip. If she leaves cleanly from the rail, the John Shirreffs-trained juvenile will have a strong say in the outcome, for sure. Hope Road and Mocha Grande have been workmates leading up to this race, with ‘Road appearing the better of the two - View Workout Video - although both have ability. The daughter of Quality Road was produced by the high class sprinting mare Marley’s Freedom and looks to have plenty of her mother’s raw talent. At 8-1 on the morning line, you absolutely have to use her.

    *

    RACE 9: Post: 6:05 PT Grade: B+
    Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Anisette
    Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Ancient Peace; 6-Spicybug; 11-Wed.

    Forecast: We loved the West Coast debut win by the English invader Anisette and based on the manner in which she quickened through the pack after a poor start we expect her to handle this tougher assignment with any kind of good racing luck. With a full field guaranteed in this year’s renewal of the San Clemente Stakes, traffic may be an issue, but in a race absolutely loaded with early speed, the Leonard Powell-trained sophomore should have her chance to blast home again and tag the leaders close home. In a race like this, where the outcome could easily be determined by trips and trouble, you have to use a few others to protect, so we’ll spread underneath while reserving the main punch for this English-bred filly.

    *

    RACE 10: Post: 6:35 PT Grade: B
    Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Dr. No No; 5-Capo Luigi; 9-Donnie the Chiro
    Backups/savers: 1-Potito.

    Forecast: Dr. No No has trained like a fast colt and certainly is bred to be one (Smiling Tiger), so in an open fray for state-bred juveniles the Brian Koriner-trained colt rates top billing despite his 10-hole draw in this five furlong dash. A :46 4/5 gate drill in late June points him out, as does a :59 1/5 bullet move 14 days ago. Capo Luigi had something of a nightmarish trip in his debut at Golden Gate Fields (off slowly, very wide from the far turn to the wire) but stayed on with courage through the lane to wind up a fairly promising third. With that race behind him and with better racing luck today, the son of Dads Cap should be quite competitive. Donnie the Chiro has put together a solid work tab at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Peter Miller. He could come up a hot item, so we’ll toss him in.

    *

    RACE 11: Post: 7:05 PT Grade: B+
    Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Vancougar
    Backups/savers: 1-Sarwar; 9-Tio Magico.

    Forecast: Vancougar is improving with racing, has solid speed figures, and will be making his first start around two turns. It’s entirely possible that he’ll leave his previous form behind with this stretch out in trip, and with a series of sharp recent workouts that indicate he’s ready to step forward again for trainer Jeff Mullins he offers an excellent wagering opportunity at 8-1 on the morning line. Regular rider Hector Berrios stays aboard, and we assume he preferred him over Sarwar, another logical contender in the race.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 351013

      #3
      What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 7/22/23


      July 22, 2023
      “What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
      by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst


      Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
      *
      For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
      *
      Grade Descriptions:
      Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
      Grade B=Solid Play.
      Grade C=Least preferred or pass
      Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

      __________________________________________________ ____________________________
      RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B
      Main ticket: (in order of preference): Ask Isaac; 3-Fortune Seller
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

      Forecast: Ask Isaac has done some very good work leading up to his racing debut and we suspect this $400,000 son of Uncle Mo is a cut above the others in this two turn grass affair for maiden juveniles. There appears nothing flashy among the final times of his breezes, but we’ve seen him on tape - View Workout Video - and he appears to be a strong colt with plenty of scope and talent. He’s worth a gamble at 4-1 on the morning line. Also worth tossing in the Parx shipper Fortune Seller, who probably wouldn’t be here unless his connections thought something of him. Certainly bred for grass, the son of Kitten’s Joy goes for a stable that has no reputation with debut runners, but he attracts Jose Ortiz and has some drills on his resume that look pretty decent.

      *

      RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: B+
      Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Deputy Connect; 4-Paddington
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

      Forecast: Deputy Connect seems solid in this nine furlong starter allowance ($50,000) event, and in what projects to be a slowly run race during the early stages he can draft into an ideal pace stalking/pressing position and have every chance from there. The Brad Cox-trained colt has steadily rising speed figures, is relatively fresh, and has the grinding style that should work well at this nine furlong trip. Paddington, a colt by Curlin, was tossed away for $50,000 in just his second career start but ran like he was worth the money and then some by registering a more than 19 length victory over a sloppy surface at Ellis Park last month. Claimed by Linda Rice, he’s protected today and projects as the possible controlling speed. If it wasn’t the wet track that moved him up, the WinStar Farm castoff could be capable of dominating from gate to wire.

      *

      RACE 3: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B+
      Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Healdsburg
      Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

      Forecast: Healdsburg looked quite good breezing a furlong in :10 flat at the 2021 OBS April Sale and then brought $365,000 at auction. Finally, at age four, she makes it to the races. The daughter of Candy Ride doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this abbreviated turf sprint for fillies and mares and should be highly competitive first crack out of the box Chad Brown (a strong 23% with first time starters). A recent main track team gate drill was visually impressive under a tight hold throughout - View Workout Video - and should have her tight enough to handle this assignment. With Flavian Prat taking the call and at 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

      *

      RACE 4: Post: 2:46 ET Grade: C+
      Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Chileno
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

      Forecast: Chileno has recent form that hardly inspires but he does own a considerable edge in the speed figure department in a weak field for the level and could wake up big time with this class drop to the restricted (nw-2) $25,000 level. Certainly a hard one to trust (1-for-17 in his career), the son of Gun Runner rates top billing pretty much default in a race in which contenders are difficult to find. There’s hardly any value to be found at or near his morning line of 2-1, so this might be a good race to avoid.

      *

      RACE 5: Post: 3:18 ET Grade: B+
      Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Undervalued Asset
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Cupid’s Heart.

      Forecast: Undervalued Asset finished six lengths clear of the rest when second in a career top performance at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks day and with a repeat of that effort today she should be able to handle this first level allowance field of sprinting fillies and mares. The Chad Brown-trained daughter of Speightstown has the perfect stalking style for this seven furlong distance and speed figures that are good enough to win, so following a recent sharp local breeze to tick her over - View Workout Video - we’re expecting a winning performance while hoping to get close to her morning line of 2-1.

      *

      RACE 6: Post: 3:52 ET Grade: B
      Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Roses for Debra; 2-Bubble Rock
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Wakanaka

      Forecast: Poppy Flower nosed out Bubble Rock when the met in the Intercontinental Stakes-G3 at Belmont Park last month but this time there is a six pound shift in the weights in favor or ‘Rock in this year’s renewal of the Caress S.-G3 over five and one-half furlongs on grass. ‘Rock is clearly the quicker of the two, so this shortened trip (by a furlong) favors her considerably, as well. She one she actually has to worry the most about is the rapidly improving Roses for Debra, who is perfect in two starts since joining the Christophe Clement barn. She’s unproven at this level but is fast on figures and is equally effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position, so Irad Ortiz, Jr. can assess the race flow and choose whatever strategy he desires. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics, with ‘Debra getting a very slight edge on top.

      *

      RACE 7: Post: 4:26 ET Grade: B+
      Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Annointed; 3-General Partner
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Valentine Candy; 7-Dive Bomber

      Forecast: This certainly looks like a hot maiden juvenile event with 12 first time starters, each with either good workouts, fancy pedigrees, or both. Annointed is one who checks both boxes. The son of Justify is a full brother to debut winner Aunt Shirley and whose second dam is a full sister to Giant’s Causeway. Perhaps more importantly, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has looked quite impressive in the morning and most recently proved clearly best over stablemate Protected - View Workout Video - who also is in the body of this race. The Chad Brown-trained General Partner seems to have plenty of raw talent as well. A colt by Speightstown from the dam of stakes winning Naughty Joker, he hasn’t really been asked to show his best in the morning - View Workout Video - but comes from a stable that does extremely well (23%) with newcomers.

      *

      RACE 8: Post: 5:02 ET Grade: B+
      Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-I’m Very Busy/1a-Grand Glomar Step; 2-Antares
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Fearless Soldier

      Forecast: I’m Very Busy and Grand Giomar Step form a powerful entry for trainer Chad Brown in this first level allowance turf router restricted to 3-year-olds. The former won his debut over this course and distance last year and was so impressive in doing so that he left at odds-on in the Pilgrim Stakes-G2, though he could only manage to finish second on soft ground he may not have cared for. Unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1 (but beaten less than four lengths) to close out the season, the son of Cloud Computing launches his comeback with a local work tab that should have him plenty fit. ‘Step is a French invader with a couple of all-weather victories overseas on his resume that look decent enough. He’s a first-time Lasix and first time gelding play with Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting the mount, so he and his entry mate almost certainly will leave at a short price, assuming both actually start. Antares earned a giant figure graduating over the all-weather strip when facing inferior opposition at Presque Isle Downs and today stretches out to a surface he should like equally as well. There is no question that front-running tactics will be employed, and despite the class hike it would not be surprising to see this Billy Morey-trained son of American Pharoah take this field a very long way.

      *

      RACE 9: Post: 5:42 ET Grade: B
      Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gambling Girl; 2-Wet Paint
      Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

      Forecast: Gambling Girl ran lights out when flying home but narrowly missing in the Kentucky Oaks-G1 behind division leader Pretty Mischievous and makes her first start since in this year’s edition of the C.C.A. Oaks-G1. She’s been kept in steady training in the interim at Churchill Down and arrives in New York primed and ready. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly can adapt to any type of pace flow and projects to settle in the second flight and the kick home when called upon. Wet Paint was victimized by a lack of pace and wound up a non-threatening (and somewhat disappointing) second behind loose-on-the-lead Hoosier Philly in the Monomoy Girl S. at Ellis Park last time out. She is reunited with “win rider” Flavian Prat, so we’ll give her one more chance to reproduce her outstanding winter form.

      *

      RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET Grade: B
      Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Accretive; 6-Daufuskie Island
      Backups/savers: none.

      Forecast: When last seen 11 months ago, Accretive finished a disappointing fifth in the H. Allen Jerkens S.-G1 behind Jack Christopher after having just missed in a photo to Gunite in the Amsterdam S.-G2 and before that graduating at first asking in a highly rated maiden sprint at Belmont Park. Let’s hope he returns with that kind of form in this first level allowance sprint for trainer Chad Brown. The son of Practical Joke has never looked better in the morning - View Workout Video - but he’s tackling several salty older foes, so he’d better bring his “A” game. Daufuskie Island has won his last three starts by a combined 25 lengths and most recently earned a triple digit Beyer speed figure when easily disposing of state-bred second level allowance field. We’ll see what he’s made of today.

      *

      RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: C+
      Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Catchyasoon/1a-Flint Ridge; 6-Seven Nation Army; 6-Prince James.
      Backups/savers: 8-Digital Future

      Forecast: We suggest you tread lightly in this $32,000 claiming sprint that contains runners moving in all different directions on the class ladder. Catchyasoon faded badly at 6/5 and was a voided claim for $40,000 last month at Belmont Park. Today, the Linda Rice-trained gelding surfaces for $25,000, so it’s anybody’s guess as to what kind of shape this veteran gelding currently is in. A repeat of his runaway win for $32,000 two races back buries this field, that we do know. Same can be said for entry mate Flint Ridge, claimed for $50,000 in May and returning today for half that amount. His form from last winter was superior to this group, but we’re not sure which version we’ll be seeing today. Seven Nation Army is dropping off a $25,000 claim by Robertino Diodoro in his first start since arriving from Ellis Park. First or second in 17 of 41 career starts, the son of First Samurai is another that is good enough but with a condition question. Prince James blew away a $20,000 field at Belmont Park in late June with a solid figure and although moving up a notch and tackling much tougher probably is a bit better than his morning line of 15-1.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 351013

        #4
        Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis


        July 22, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
        Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the feature coming in Race 13, when Ohio bred colts battle for a share of a $100,000 purse in Sires Stakes action. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus.

        Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

        Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

        1-Navagio N (5-1)-Willing to use off a good qualifier in the 1st start at Nfld. This is a wide-open affair and made a big move in the 3rd quarter and got the lead but finished 2nd by a length in the tune-up. Lems could be closer to the lead at the 3/4 pole tonight.
        2-Paradise Rock L (9/2)-Does its best work at ScD and is only 1-9 here so could be overlooked at the windows. Won here on 5-27 in convincing fashion coming off cover. Looking for an efficient trip and a nice move to sweep by down the lane.
        6-She Means Business (4-1)-Will toss the last race on a sloppy track and Davis Jr has some gate speed to work with. The pedal should be down and will try to get the top. If the opening quarter goes well, chances for a picture increase.

        Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

        2-Grahams Teddy Bear (6/5)-The last 2 starts have been on an off track and this mare is making her 3rd straight start at Nfld. The Merriman-Rhoades combo has been clicking and looks like a main player.
        8-Day To Party (5/2)-Has enough gate speed to land in a close-up seat. This post is a challenge but helps the price and does have the ability to cash the top check. Came close here on 5-20 versus similar and Wrenn can put the Burke pupil in position to win.

        Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

        1-Wicked Character (9/5)-Has won 3 of 5 here and will respect connections. But will be a small price and not sure leaving from the rail will help that much.
        2-Burnnout (2-1)-This is another short price and figures to be close to the top off the gate or on the point. Will be tough to beat with a smooth trip.
        6-Rockmelikeyameanit (5-1)-Looking for some value and has raced well here (3-1-1-0). Might be the fastest off the gate and just missed in the last 2 at ScD when the fractions were sizzling. The Noble barn has won 9 of 36 over the past 30 days and best to not overlook.

        Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

        1-Johann (2-1)-Left alertly from the 2-hole, got on the point and hung on for the win. Faces the same kind and should be in the hunt.
        4-Sandis Commando L (5/2)-Scioto shipper has raced at Nfld 2 times and posted 1 win. Steps up but has some versatility and could be the one that closes fastest of all.
        5-Broadway Liberty (5-1)-Doesn't have big gate speed and broke 3rd off the gate in last. Shook free down the lane, pulled and just missed catching #1. An alert start and a sharp steer are needed but shouldn't be overlooked.

        $1.00 Late Pick 4

        1,2,6/2,8/1,2,6/1,4,5
        Total Bet=$54
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 351013

          #5
          Jeremy Plonk: All-Stakes Pick 4 Haskell Day at Monmouth


          July 22, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
          Haskell Day at Monmouth Park features 14 races with the $1 million main event slated for the day’s 12th event. Bettors are offered an all-stakes pick four in Races 9-12 with a $500,000-guaranteed pool. That will be the focus here, while there also will be a $250,000-guaranteed pick five on the final quintet of races on the card.

          As for the all-stakes pick 4, let’s get to work.

          Monmouth Park | Race 9 | $100,000 Wolf Hill Stakes

          Ten turf sprinters match up in a race loaded with early speed. The outside four runners in the gate all will be barreling out of there for position at the front. The finishers who interest most are #5 Witty (9-2 ML), #4 Belgrano (5-1 ML) and #1 Eamonn (10-1 ML). Belgrano was runner-up in this race a year ago and obviously fits on his best form and will appreciate the additional distance from his most recent dash. Both Witty and Eamonn are cross-entered in the $150,000 Van Clief Stakes at Colonial Downs on Saturday. While I respect Laurel Futurity front-running winner #9 Fore Harp, I’ll ride with the closers.

          Monmouth Park | Race 10 | Grade 3 $500,000 Molly Pitcher Stakes

          Defending Molly Pitcher champ #4 Search Results (8-5 ML) makes a sizable drop in class after facing the best of the Distaff division. She’ll be tough to topple, but the way to do it may be from in front of her throughout. She’s hung in the stretch in four straight, albeit vs. tougher, and likely will be in pursuit of red-hot #6 Loved (5-1 ML) for a good chunk of the 1-1/16 miles assignment. Speed typically is dynamite on Haskell Day at Monmouth, so I’ll resist temptation to include #5 Le Da Vida (5-1 ML) despite some appreciation for her on paper.

          Monmouth Park | Race 11 | Grade 1 $600,000 United Nations Stakes

          Monmouth is a quicker, firmer turf course than most and a lack of early pace in this race could stretch the early players to play the entire mile and three-eighths of the UN. Well-drawn #3 Catnip (4-1 ML) is the play off back-to-back local course wins at shorter trips. He should be in the top-3 down the backstretch with a serious pace edge over classy #9 Red Knight (5-2 ML). This will be my gutsy single, while respecting #6 Planetario (3-1 ML) and #7 Yamato (15-1 ML) underneath in the exotics.

          Monmouth Park | Race 12 | Grade 1 $1 million Haskell Invitational

          Being frank, this is a Haskell where I could see 5 of the 8 runners in the winner’s circle, and that doesn’t include champion trainer Brad Cox’s local prep winner. It feels intra-race like a betting affair that will lack value, stacked with horses between 2-1 and 6-1 and almost not fair to beat 4 or 5 good ones and still only get between $6-$14 returns. #1 Geaux Rocket Ride (9-2 ML) has 5 workouts since his Affirmed win and that looks to be the most focused and demanding pattern in the field to indicate that THIS race is his objective. For many, it’s a start back from the Triple Crown or a layoff. #7 Extra Anejo (5-1 ML) is the other who looks primed primarily for this spot. It’s those two that I prefer most. But a hot pace likely sets up nicely for #4 Mage (3-1 ML) and #5 Tapit Trice (3-1 ML), and #8 Arabian Knight (5-2 ML) goes for a Baffert barn that just rarely misfires in the Haskell, winning it a ridiculous 9 times to date. I’ve got chances to beat 3 favorites in the first 3 legs, so even including a deeper cast here with shorter prices has a chance to be fruitful. The strong play will be to use Geaux Rocket Ride and Extra Anejo on additional tickets in the closeout leg, which would only cost $6 each time to do so.

          The Ticket
          5,4,1 with 4,6 with 3 with 1,7,8,4,5 = $15 for $.50 play
          5,4,1 with 4,6 with 3 with 1,7 = $6 for each $.50 additional play
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 351013

            #6
            Race of the Week: United Nations at Monmouth | Saturday


            July 20, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
            The Lead:
            Saturday's $1 million Haskell Day card at Monmouth Park features Kentucky Derby winner Mage in the main event, and 13 additional races that are loaded with intrigue. Stakes abound, and the Race 11 Haskell lead-in is the 11-furlong Grade 1 United Nations on turf. It may be the best betting race on the card with a field of 10 and a strong competitive balance. Trainer Chad Brown has won this race the past 2 years, but his noticeable absence in Saturday's field leaves the door open and the betting options attractive.

            Field Depth:
            Grade 1 winner RED KNIGHT certainly has the class edge on company lines. THERAPIST has won at the Grade 2 level. Meanwhile, the likes of CATNIP, FOREIGN RELATIONS and PLANETARIO are Grade 3 successes. Beyond RED KNIGHT, this race plays much more like a Grade 3 in terms of existing resumes.

            Pace:
            Monmouth's turf plays a bit more forward-friendly than most and this race has had some history being won near the front. There's no absolutely dedicated pacemaker here, while SO HIGH and OCEANS MAP should be in contention for the front, while CATNIP is really the only other horse in the field who figures to be in contention. It can be taken up front.

            Our Eyes:
            Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

            1-THERAPIST: First of 3 Mike Maker trainees in the lineup (also Yamato, Red Knight), he'll be piloted by Javier Castellano, in town to ride Mage in the Haskell. Maker has won the UN twice (2017, 2020). Gulfstream Park's Grade 2 Pan American winner has run his best races from deeper off the pace than this slower pace may favor.

            2-SO HIGH: Castellano has ridden in 4 of his last 5 starts, but jumps saddles to Therapist on Saturday. He's lost 12 straight since a 2020 claiming score. Part of pace for a while, but likely passed over.

            3-CATNIP: Beautifully drawn, should get a great trip and is a 2-time winner over this course, including the local prep at 1-1/8 miles. The UN will be a quarter-mile farther than he's ever run, but this 4-year-old is is in peak form and fired a bullet workout at Fair Hill while blossoming. Damside pedigree worries me for the distance, but a slow pace and favorable course can help carry some of the difference.

            4-OCEANS MAP: 11 straight losses, including 3 off-the-board in allowance company, make him a difficult recommendation.

            5-LIMITED LIABILITY: Trainer Shug McGaughey's lone UN victory came in 1994 with superstar Lure. This late-runner has come back at age 4 and handled the ascension into the older turf ranks after a solid sophomore campaign. Expected a bit more when beaten by Foreign Relations last time and has been flat late beyond 9 furlongs.

            6-PLANETARIO: Trainer Richard Mandella won this race in 1995-'96 with Brazilian star Sandpit and is back with another South American export here. Won the 1-3/4 miles San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita by a widening margin, so the distance will be of no concern. Firm-type course at SA should translate well here to Monmouth. No reason to think he won't factor in the late conversation.

            7-YAMATO: $50,000 claim in March is the Mike Maker prototype to go on to graded stakes success in turf routes historically. Decent try in Louisville Handicap on stretchout to 12 furlongs and got zero pace help that day. Could get a nice trip midpack under hustling Luis Saez. Maker has won the UN twice (2017, 2020).

            8-FOREIGN RELATIONS: Mystifying effort at Ellis last time after back-to-back wins at Keeneland and Churchill. The firmer course there may have been at play, as could have been a slow pace. If it was the course, then Monmouth's firmer nature may not be an improvement. Tough read, so let the tote be your guidepost. Demand at least 8-1 on the rebound bid, but don't be shy if you get that opportunity.

            9-RED KNIGHT: 9-year-old veteran has won 12 of 35 in a lightly raced career and holds the class edge over this group. But he closes from just so far back in the pack that you are concerned he'll get anough pace help over a course friendlier to the front. An all or nothing type, he's got 4 wins and 5 off-the-board finishes in his last 10 starts. Maker has won the UN twice (2017, 2020).

            ​10-KYGO: Middle-distance sort hasn't shown the propensity for 11 furlongs, but the pedigree certainly is there for it on both sides. He's 0-for-3 since being claimed and draws a tough post for what could be a stalking trip.

            Most Certain Exotics Contender:
            CATNIP should get a dynamite trip and is proven over the course.

            Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
            Yamato was 14-1 when bottoming the superfecta last time and has that look of a Mike Maker marathoner.

            Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
            $60 win CATNIP. $10 exacta CATNIP to YAMATO, PLANETARIO ($20). $10 daily double part-wheel CATNIP to GEAUX ROCKET RIDE and EXTRA ANEJO in the Haskell ($20).
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 351013

              #7
              Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


              Del Mar - Race #7
              #9 Awake at Midnyte There are a handful of mostly even running lines on her page, but she has been knocking heads with some tougher groups over the last year and might get a pretty nice trip behind a few fairly committed forward players.
              #3 Warrens Candy Girl She's an honest enough finisher who fits well here on her best day, and I think the race flow is generally going to favor those running from somewhere off the splits. Capable.
              #8 Nevisian Sunrise She's back off the bench with a little versatility in her running style, and she might be well served by trying to rate just a touch after opening a big early lead in her last start at Saratoga in 2022.
              Race Summary Awake at Midnyte might be able to find position in a great spot behind some pace players while ready to get the jump on the deeper finishers. Price player has some appeal.
              Del Mar - Race #9
              #8 Paris Secret Think she's capable of something better than she offered last time around, and the price probably gets quite a bit more appealing after the 9/5 off number last out.
              #3 Anisette Think she has a huge claim on this, but she strikes me as the type who will probably end up overbet relative to her realistic win chances, but there wasn't anything at all wrong with the Santa Anita effort in May. Look out late.
              #6 Spicybug She'll get around two turns for this one, but her recent form has been pretty reliable, and I can see her finding a first-jump kind of trip while going long. Feel like I might want something a bit better than the 6/1 ML price.
              Race Summary Paris Secret has some decent finishing form and might still have some room to come forward with just a handful of tries on her page. I would probably feel halfway decent being alive to the top two.
              Del Mar - Race #10
              #6 I Will Be King He took a small bit of cash at 9/2 when facing five others in the debut at Santa Anita back in April, but he looked like a horse who had not put a whole lot together so far. I like that he has worked quite a bit since the debut run, and maybe he'll show something better here at a price.
              #9 Donnie the Chiro Debuter goes for one of the better barns with young runners like this over the local footing, and he seems like one of the more obvious ones on paper -- get a look at him and rest on the track and tote ahead of this.
              #3 Buraq's Reflection He's maybe not as high upside as some of the rest as he makes his third career start, but he took a little step forward in that second lifetime start and wouldn't be a shock here.
              Race Summary I'm also interested to get a look at #7 Petesoldfashioned in the paddock, but the on paper lean goes in the pricier direction with I Will Be King, who didn't have a productive or easy go of things when making his first trip to post. Better here while overlooked at a better price?
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 351013

                #8
                Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


                Laurel Park - Race #4
                #6 BOSS ANGEL (12-1) Disappeared in latest but can’t be discounted, won easily twice at 5-1/2F.
                #3 PERFORMANCEANXIETY (9-5) Returns to winning level, Whitacre goes to barn’s other entrant.
                #1 NEED A MARKER (2-1) Lone three-race winner in field takes on elders while in good form.
                Race Summary BOSS ANGEL was eased in the follow-up to a runaway victory two back at this distance. She meets several of the same rivals, sheds 5 pounds and is worth a win and place bet at an inflated price.
                Laurel Park - Race #6
                #2 TOO MANY KISSES (3-1) Solid debut, comes off Lasix, lures Russell to ride.
                #4 NOBLE BELIEF (7-2) Well-prepped for debut, barn is 5-12 with positive ROI in last month.
                #5 QUIT QUAY (9-2) Dueled with next-out repeat winner at this distance.
                Race Summary TOO MANY KISSES took serious money in her debut, was bumped at the start, chased fast fractions and tired. She should benefit from that effort and can upgrade to a win. Bet to win and place.
                Laurel Park - Race #9
                #2 STAGE CALL (9-2) Improved on stretch-out in distance on short rest, returns in ideal spot.
                #1 CALL ME VIVIAN (8-5) Took back early, rallied with 139 pounds in ‘amateur’ race, gets class relief.
                #4 LOOKING FOR WATER (2-1) Showed little on turf, then rallied 4-wide for second in 7F dirt test.
                Race Summary STAGE CALL broke a step slow from the outside, settled into a good stalking position behind the pace-controlling favorite, appeared poised for a run mid-turn but leveled off. She improved in her first route try, now goes longer today. Play 2-1 and 2-4 exactas.
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 351013

                  #9
                  F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso Downs

                  PURCHASE
                  Ruidoso Downs - Race 8
                  Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta /3rd Leg Pick 3
                  Stakes • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 CR: 76 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 3:36P
                  SIERRA STARLET H. - FOR THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES, NEW MEXICO BRED. $100 TO NOMINATE AND $400 TO START. NOMINATIONS CLOSE THURSDAY, JULY 13, 2023 BY 12:00 NOON. PREFERRED BY MONEY EARNED IN 2022-2023. (IF YOU FAIL TO START FOR ANY REASON, FEES WILL BE FORFEITED).
                  Contenders
                  Race Analysis
                  P#
                  Horse
                  Morn
                  Line
                  Accept
                  Odds

                  Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BETTER BELIEVE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with h orses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. FIRST AGAIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Ra ting. SHEZA HAILSTORM: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAMA WAS A ROCKET: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses co ming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
                  4
                  BETTER BELIEVE
                  9/5
                  4/1
                  6
                  FIRST AGAIN
                  6/1
                  5/1
                  2
                  SHEZA HAILSTORM
                  5/1
                  9/1
                  3
                  MAMA WAS A ROCKET
                  7/2
                  10/1

                  P#
                  Horse (In Running Style Order)
                  Post
                  Morn
                  Line
                  Running Style
                  Good
                  Class
                  Good
                  Speed
                  Early Figure
                  Finish Figure
                  Platinum
                  Figure
                  2
                  SHEZA HAILSTORM
                  2
                  5/1
                  Front-runner
                  66
                  62
                  83.2
                  59.2
                  52.7
                  4
                  BETTER BELIEVE
                  4
                  9/5
                  Front-runner
                  77
                  70
                  81.2
                  70.0
                  63.0
                  6
                  FIRST AGAIN
                  6
                  6/1
                  Stalker
                  74
                  76
                  77.4
                  70.6
                  66.1
                  3
                  MAMA WAS A ROCKET
                  3
                  7/2
                  Stalker
                  75
                  75
                  68.0
                  51.6
                  43.1
                  5
                  HOLOTTALUTE
                  5
                  8/1
                  Stalker
                  67
                  61
                  58.6
                  58.6
                  48.1
                  1
                  TIZ A JOURNEY
                  1
                  9/2
                  Stalker
                  68
                  73
                  57.2
                  64.4
                  59.4
                  7
                  SHAME ON CHARLOTTE
                  7
                  10/1
                  Alternator/Non-contender
                  60
                  63
                  56.8
                  58.6
                  46.6
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 351013

                    #10
                    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for North Dakota Horse ParkPURCHASE


                    North Dakota Horse Park - Race 5
                    $2 Win, Place, Show $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
                    Allowance • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 69 • Purse: $6,250 • Post: 2:30P
                    QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEARS OLD AND OLDER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
                    Contenders
                    Race Analysis
                    P#
                    Horse
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Accept
                    Odds

                    Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * OKIE PRINCESS (T): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. SIX FIGURE DIAMOND S: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DIABLO CUERNO (T): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse h as a Fast Break Style designation. GOLD MEDAL SOLDIER: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
                    2
                    OKIE PRINCESS (T)
                    1/1
                    7/2
                    5
                    SIX FIGURE DIAMONDS
                    3/1
                    5/1
                    3
                    DIABLO CUERNO (T)
                    5/1
                    5/1
                    4
                    GOLD MEDAL SOLDIER
                    4/1
                    7/1

                    P#
                    Horse (In Running Style Order)
                    Post
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Running Style
                    Good
                    Class
                    Good
                    Speed
                    Early Figure
                    Finish Figure
                    Platinum
                    Figure
                    1
                    WHIPPERWILLTRIPP
                    1
                    6/1
                    Average
                    55
                    48
                    3.7
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    2
                    OKIE PRINCESS (T)
                    2
                    1/1
                    Fast
                    71
                    66
                    2.8
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    3
                    DIABLO CUERNO (T)
                    3
                    5/1
                    Fast
                    63
                    57
                    2.1
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    4
                    GOLD MEDAL SOLDIER
                    4
                    4/1
                    Fast
                    70
                    56
                    3.2
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    5
                    SIX FIGURE DIAMONDS
                    5
                    3/1
                    Average
                    71
                    60
                    5.5
                    0.0
                    0.0
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 351013

                      #11
                      Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                      PURCHASE


                      Emerald Downs - Race #7 - Post: 7:48pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 80

                      Rating:

                      #8 ASIAN RAIN (ML=9/2)
                      #7 BOB'S SNIPER (ML=7/2)
                      #3 FAMOUS ROCK STAR (ML=8/1)


                      ASIAN RAIN - Great chance for this steed. Big late speed and should have good position. This equine is at the top in earnings per start (EPS). He looks solid in today's event. Rosales has a knack for getting horses to run well after a claim. Numbers are stellar first time off a claim, and this horse fits that category exactly. BOB'S SNIPER - Nice return on investment for this rider and handler twosome. Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last time out at Los Alamitos (Quarter Hor. FAMOUS ROCK STAR - Montalvo is up for another race today after riding aboard this horse for the initial time on July 15th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This jock and conditioner's equines have been generating a favorable return on investment. I have to believe Rosales is making a good move here. This gelding can only be aided by the shorter distance. Rosales has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be careful of the longer priced half.

                      Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DECIMATE (ML=5/2), #4 MISO FAST (ML=4/1), #1 MOJAVE (ML=8/1),

                      DECIMATE - Don't feel this horse will do much running in today's race. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure. MISO FAST - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does. This entrant ran a mediocre speed fig last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably lose in today's event running that figure. MOJAVE - Really had to give me much more than that last time around the track. Never made much of an impact.


                      STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #8 ASIAN RAIN to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
                      EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,7,8]

                      TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                      Box [3,7,8] Total Cost: $6
                      SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 351013

                        #12
                        Handicapped by The Walker Group at Great Falls

                        PURCHASE
                        Always check program numbers.
                        Odds shown are morning line odds.




                        Race 1 - Allowance - 5.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 67

                        FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

                        RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                        # 5 MAKAH LANE 8/1
                        # 3 SAND WALKER 7/5
                        # 7 THREE RED SEVENS 3/1
                        I've got to go with MAKAH LANE especially at such a decent 8/1. Love when any horse makes a quick turnaround. A solid 87 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group. Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. SAND WALKER - This equine enters today's affair on Lasix. This gelding looks very good in this event since Depew has a sharp win percentage with horses going this distance. THREE RED SEVENS - Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a very good shot. This pony has to be in good form coming back to the track so quickly.
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 351013

                          #13
                          Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

                          PURCHASE
                          Always check program numbers.
                          Odds shown are morning line odds.




                          Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 90

                          FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 22 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 22 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO

                          RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                          # 3 N. K. ROCKET MAN 7/2
                          # 1 WAR CHEST 5/1
                          # 8 ZUMURUDEE 5/2
                          N. K. ROCKET MAN has a formidable shot to take this race. Will probably go to the front end and might never look back. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 83 - of his last contest. WAR CHEST - A solid 97 avg class fig may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this field. His 84 average has this gelding with among the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures in this contest. ZUMURUDEE - Has to be given consideration versus this group of horses in this race displaying very good figures recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 85 under similar conditions. Could best this group of animals based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 85 - of his last race.
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                          Comment

                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 351013

                            #14
                            Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                            PURCHASE


                            Delaware Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 73

                            Rating:

                            #6 OILER (ML=10/1)
                            #1 DELTA RIDGE (ML=9/2)
                            #7 OROCOVIX (ML=7/2)
                            #8 MEAN TWEETS (ML=6/1)


                            OILER - After a pair of sprints, he's routing today, which is probably what this gelding wants to do. Taking a class drop in Equibase class figure points from his June 23rd race at Delaware Park. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the advantage. This horse ran out of the money at Delaware Park last time around the track on an off track. He should improve in this field without the off-track conditions. DELTA RIDGE - Was in a $28,000 Claiming race at Delaware Park last time around the track. That affair had a class rating of 80 and he is moving down right here in this race. A certain contender. OROCOVIX - Sanchez-Salomon brings him back again. I recommend you stay with this hot gelding. This gelding had an excellent move mid-race on July 8th but hung down the stretch. Should see improvement against these horses today. MEAN TWEETS - Last out, this one was in a race at Delaware Park in a race with a class rating of 80. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure this time around puts him in a solid position right here. This thoroughbred ran off the board at Delaware Park in the last race on an off track. He should improve in this event on a fast track.

                            Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KERANOS (ML=5/2), #3 MY HANDSOME MAN (ML=8/1), #2 HOP AND SCOTCH (ML=8/1),

                            KERANOS - Shouldn't have too much left in the tank after back to back hard stretch runs. MY HANDSOME MAN - Didn't hit the board on June 21st at Delaware Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar outing. HOP AND SCOTCH - Even though victorious in last, didn't finish the way you'd like to see when stepping up to face stiffer competition.


                            STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #6 OILER to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds
                            EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,6] Box [6,7] Box [6,8]

                            TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                            None
                            SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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                            Comment

                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 351013

                              #15
                              Saratoga Tip Sheet - July 22

                              Jul. 21, 2023


                              Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.
                              RACE #1 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                              1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 2-1 7 Noted I Ortiz Jr.
                              PLACE 7-5 8 Dornoch I Ortiz Jr.
                              SHOW 5-2 9 Deterministic F Prat
                              WILD CARD 3-1 3 Fortune Seller J L Ortiz
                              ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Uncle Bo D Davis
                              ALTERNATE 2 4-1 1 Ask Isaac J Alvarado
                              * EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 7/8/9 BOX, 3/8/9 BOX
                              RACE #2 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
                              1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:42 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 9-5 4 Paddington J L Ortiz
                              PLACE 3-1 2 Deputy Connect F Prat
                              SHOW 7-2 7 Whats Up Doc J A Torres
                              WILD CARD 20-1 1 Hang Tight R Santana Jr.
                              ALTERNATE 1 8-1 6 Centavo D Davis
                              ALTERNATE 2 4-1 5 Ice Road I Ortiz Jr.
                              * EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
                              RACE #3 $88,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                              5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
                              BEST BET: #4 VOLEUSE
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 4-1 4 Voleuse I Ortiz Jr.
                              PLACE 7-2 1A Cerretta J A Torres
                              SHOW 3-1 5 Healdsburg F Prat
                              WILD CARD 4-1 2 Spooky Lady K Carmouche
                              ALTERNATE 1 9-2 7 Strictly Taboo D Davis
                              ALTERNATE 2 15-1 6 Admire My Crown K Davis
                              * EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
                              RACE #4 $25,000 CLAIMING
                              1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
                              BEST BET: #1 CHILENO
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 2-1 1 Chileno J L Ortiz
                              PLACE 9-2 3 Husband Material I Ortiz Jr.
                              SHOW 5-1 8 Winning Connection T McCarthy
                              WILD CARD 6-1 7 Achilles Heel M Franco
                              ALTERNATE 1 10-1 2 Yono R Santana Jr.
                              ALTERNATE 2 4-1 6 Inspector K Carmouche
                              * EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
                              RACE #5 $149,500 ALLOWANCE
                              7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 4-1 2 Cupids Heart F Prat
                              PLACE 2-1 1 Undervalued Asset I Ortiz Jr.
                              SHOW 5-1 8 Zeitlos F Geroux
                              WILD CARD 3-1 6 Huntress for Hire J L Ortiz
                              ALTERNATE 1 5-1 3 Dear Lady J R Leparoux
                              ALTERNATE 2 12-1 5 To a T M Franco
                              * EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
                              RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES
                              5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:52 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 2-1 2 Bubble Rock F Prat
                              PLACE 7-2 1 Our Flash Drive D Davis
                              SHOW 3-1 4 Poppy Flower J L Ortiz
                              WILD CARD 9-5 3 Roses for Debra I Ortiz Jr.
                              ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Wakanaka J Alvarado
                              ALTERNATE 2 4-1 6 Bank On Anna J Lezcano
                              * EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
                              RACE #7 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                              6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:26 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 5-1 7 Dive Bomber F Geroux
                              PLACE 4-1 6 Annointed J L Ortiz
                              SHOW 9-2 3 General Partner F Prat
                              WILD CARD 3-1 5 Valentine Candy R Santana Jr.
                              ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 Protective I Ortiz Jr.
                              ALTERNATE 2 15-1 1A Hamiltons Way D Davis
                              * EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
                              RACE #8 $149,500 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                              1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:02 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 6-5 1 Im Very Busy F Prat
                              PLACE 10-1 7 Wico J L Ortiz
                              SHOW 6-1 2 Antares D Davis
                              WILD CARD 8-1 3 Taking Candy J Lezcano
                              ALTERNATE 1 6-5 1A Grand Giomar Step I Ortiz Jr.
                              ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Fearless Soldier R Santana Jr.
                              * EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
                              RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES
                              1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:42 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 5-2 4 Gambling Girl I Ortiz Jr.
                              PLACE 2-1 2 Wet Paint F Prat
                              SHOW 5-2 5 Hoosier Philly E Morales
                              WILD CARD 9-2 1 Southlawn F Geroux
                              ALTERNATE 1 10-1 3 Sacred Wish M Franco
                              ALTERNATE 2 10-1 6 Shes Lookin Lucky K Carmouche
                              * EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
                              RACE #10 $149,500 ALLOWANCE
                              6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:17 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 10-1 2 Talkin Pharoah J L Ortiz
                              PLACE 8-5 8 Accretive I Ortiz Jr.
                              SHOW 2-1 6 Daufuskie Island T McCarthy
                              WILD CARD 5-1 7 Who Hoo Thats Me D Davis
                              ALTERNATE 1 15-1 4 Victorious Wave M Franco
                              ALTERNATE 2 15-1 1 Bourbon Bash K Carmouche
                              * EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX
                              RACE #11 $25,000 CLAIMING
                              6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:52 PM ET
                              BEST BET: #1A FLINT RIDGE
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 7-2 1A Flint Ridge J L Ortiz
                              PLACE 6-1 12 Scilly Cay F Prat
                              SHOW 8-1 7 Senor Jobim M Franco
                              WILD CARD 15-1 11 Saint Selby K Carmouche
                              ALTERNATE 1 7-2 1 Catchyasoon J L Ortiz
                              ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Prince James J Lezcano
                              * EXACTA: 1-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX, 7-11 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/7/12 BOX, 7/11/12 BOX
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