Tuesday 6/27/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeremy Plonk: Indy $70K Carryover Pick 5 Analysis | Tuesday

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June 26, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Tuesday features a $70,740 carryover in the late pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which boasts a low takeout of just under 12 percent. Races 4-8 make up the sequence as the start to the racing week in Shelbyville. Weather looks promising with partly cloudy skies and only a 10-percent chance of rain.

Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 4 | allowance

#4 Louder Than Words was a distant runner-up last out to a next-start stakes winner and is quite capable in this second-off-the-layoff form cycle based on last year’s form. But she’s regularly lost margin on the winner late in dirt races and is susceptible to the upset at 7-5 in the morning line. If wet, you could see #1 Quick And Easy, but a fast forecast leaves me with #2 Amazing Gal, #3 Chelsea’s Strength, and #6 Everything’s Rosy as the best chances to beat the chalk.

Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 5 | maiden special weight

Mix in the logicals with some price chances in this turf sprint. #2 Fancy Caber Neigh showed speed short and long in Kentucky and should be forward throughout from post 2. #5 More Than a Diva is well-drawn under a hot rider and was right on the wire vs. similar last time. #7 Market Profile jockey Joe Ramos has a ridiculous 10: 5-3-1 record in turf sprints this meet and takes over this Kentucky raider for Steve Asmussen who is a total X-factor on grass. #8 La Crema was forced from the rail in a 12-horse field last out and turf sprint ace trainer Rusty Arnold’s runner gets more breathing room here at 15-1 morning line.

Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 6 | allowance

Morning line favorite #2 Ruggs ran the worst race of his career the last time over this Indy oval in October. Meanwhile, #6 W W Candy, second choice in the ML at 2-1, rallies from far off the pace and has won just 1 of his last 8. You don’t have to take a short price in a 6-furlong sprint where the profile leans speed. Let’s put our faith in #1 Improbable Journey with rail speed and coming off a good effort; #5 Breslau, a class rising winner for hot connections; and #7 Tripulante in search of his third straight win while on the rise.

Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 7 | maiden claiming

At 12-1 morning line, my best bet is #7 Brisbane Road in this maiden claiming turf mile. Look for horses making changes at this class and distance, and the addition of blinkers as well as the first time stretching out in distance fit the playbill. Ramos has ridden 3 turf winners at the meet paying $29-plus. #5 Flurr and #3 Mrs. Speaker are viable options, but I’m anchoring myself to the price player.

Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | maiden special weight

Another nice price and chance to single -- where the bulk of the public won’t -- surfaces here with #3 Unbridled Devine. This is a race where many of these are re-matched in the maiden ranks, so give me the fresh face trying new things. Even-running sprinters often become excellent middle-distance routers and this filly has a fair of steady-Eddie local sprints. Her debut conqueror returned to win a stakes race next out, and the filly who ran second in her return race last time out has since returned to win a June 21 local maiden special weight. The 9-5 morning line favorite was beaten last out at 3-5 odds and goes to post for a 4% trainer and 6% jockey in 2023. Feel free to swing for something juicier.

The Ticket
Pick 5: 2,3,6 with 2,5,7,8 with 1,5,7 with 7 with 3 = $18 for $.50 play

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#6 Red Gun	Solid lean here as he gets down in class in a pretty decent way for this one, and he's lining up outside of five horses who don't know how to pass other runners. If he hasn't started to go entirely the wrong way on form, he should be able to get past these.
#2 Governor Atwood	He has been fairly competitive at this level, but he has had a fair number of chances already and will probably be weary again in the lane after an early battle. Sticks around best of the pace?
#1 Spirited Debate	He has a little pace from the rail that could make him dangerous if he proves speed of the speed, but he has already tried this level several times and might be vulnerable again late here.
Race Summary	Red Gun drops for this one off a modest effort last out, but he's not meeting any other finishing threats, so his baseline effort should be good enough to handle these.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#3 Colonel Poppy	He's a totally price-dependent play for me today, as I'm hoping a couple of firsters or the other logical player will eat up just enough cash to leave him playable. He's a little short on excuses, but his local form is sharp with another good trip likely waiting for him.
#6 Rainbow's Pride	Wouldn't be any surprise to see this one land it with some pretty honest form that stacks up nicely if he can transfer it to the local footing. The one to beat.
#8 I Strong	His form is a bit better when you draw a line through a couple stakes runs, and he has been a fairly consistent underneath player with his typical effort. For a piece?
Race Summary	Colonel Poppy has a little bit of speed, but his ability to relax just a touch and adapt to the race as it unfolds makes him really dangerous with these. Thinking he's tough today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#10 Creative Choice	He found the right kind of level with this type last out, and he looks like the controlling pace today in a race with absolutely no other serious speed signed on. Dangerous if they let him loose. I'll take my chances and single here.
#3 Clemson Tiger	He makes a lot of sense here after a couple decent tries with similar here, but I worry he's going to be a bit overbet while not being a total standout. Capable on form.
#1 Battle Creek	He has to turn the tables on Clemson Tiger today, but he's got the kind of honest and even form that might allow him to plug along for a piece of this. Would think he should be covered if you've got a strong opinion in another leg.
Race Summary	Creative Choice looks likely enough to control the tempo, and he has occasionally shown a little ability to press the pace if needed, too. Think the price might be fair enough.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #2

#7 CINNAMON DREAM (5-1)	Good Parx record, runs well fresh, new connections hot of late.
#4 DELIGHTFUL DREAMER (8-1)	Won going away off similar rest in April, price attached.
#1 LA NEBLINA (2-1)	Far back in last pair, drops below claim level, not worth short price.
Race Summary	CINNAMON DREAM is 10/2-2-3 in route races since October, now runs for a trainer-jockey duo on a 6-for-12 run. She’s worth a win and place bet in a field that has come up weak.

Parx - Race #4

#1 MAMMA MIA ESTERINA (4-1)	Rallied from far back for placings at 6F, has done the least wrong.
#2 TEMPEST RISING (5-1)	Finished behind ‘Mamma’ after a troubled start of her own.
#5 TRES MARIA’S DREAM (7	Has route experience, burned money as 2yo, makes seasonal debut.
Race Summary	MAMMA MIA ESTERINA made a last-to-second inside rally in her 6F debut, got up for third after a slow start against better rivals last out, now stretches out from the rail. The lacked of pace in here is a concern but if she stays in contact early, she can graduate against seven rivals who are 0-63 combined. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #6

#1 BIG BOYS ANSWER (6-1)	Nightmare trip in debut, rallied for second, steps up in class.
#6 MARVELOUSMOONDANCE (5-2)	Loves to run second, finally exits MSW company.
#7 MIDNIGHT CAT (7-2)	Worked forwardly for debut, didn’t fire at short price, enters Ness barn.
Race Summary	BIG BOYS ANSWER rushed up between rivals after an awkward start, steadied repeatedly on the backstretch, then rallied 4-wide in the stretch to finish second in a promising debut. He can handle the class hike with a clean trip and a move forward off that effort. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 2	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $12,600 • Post: 1:44P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. GUIDANCE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GUIDANCE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
3	GUIDANCE	4/5	1/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	GUIDANCE	3	4/5	Alternator/Stalker	73	67	62.8	57.6	55.1
1	ALARRA	1	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	46	33	37.3	13.6	8.6
5	MY LITTLE ONE	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	44	20	30.8	12.0	2.0
4	T'S DOUBLE TROUBLE	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	16.8	16.8	10.3
6	FINAL DISCO	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	11.7	11.7	4.2
2	ULTIMATE EDITION	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 8	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 3:53P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 27. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. MY DEVILS CHILD is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SOUPER FLY OVER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. MY DEVILS CHILD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating. MACH TRIAL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SOCIAL GROUP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CAPTAIN CHAZZ: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
3	SOUPER FLY OVER	5/1	6/1
5	MY DEVILS CHILD	4/1	6/1
4	MACH TRIAL	8/1	6/1
8	SOCIAL GROUP	9/2	8/1
1	CAPTAIN CHAZZ	2/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CAPTAIN CHAZZ	1	2/1	Front-runner	81	65	91.0	69.0	62.0
8	SOCIAL GROUP	8	9/2	Front-runner	79	85	54.5	67.9	62.9
5	MY DEVILS CHILD	5	4/1	Stalker	82	76	55.2	71.2	63.7
7	INDIRECTLY	7	8/1	Trailer	78	72	40.6	66.4	52.4
4	MACH TRIAL	4	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	80	80	50.4	73.0	66.5
3	SOUPER FLY OVER	3	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	80	79	39.4	72.6	64.6
2	SOMEBODY	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	70	48.2	67.6	58.1
6	OPEN LENGTHS	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	62	38.4	62.5	49.0

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Turf. Purse: $19800 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. LIMITED TO 8 STARTERS) IF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 WILLIAM BOY 7/2
# 7 VETTORI KIN (BRZ) 3/1
# 6 HALF LIT 6/1

WILLIAM BOY is tough to overlook as the bet in here. He has a very strong distance/surface win record - 2 out of 3. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the lead recently. Could beat this field given the 76 speed figure earned in his last outing. VETTORI KIN (BRZ) - Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 82 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this field. HALF LIT - Keen is trying to win with this horse by bringing him back so soon.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 4:21pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#3 MARV'S MAGIC (ML=5/2)


MARV'S MAGIC - The most recent speed rating of 84 is the highest last race speed fig in the field. Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this gelding as he always seems to run well after a layoff. The outside draw didn't help this horse's chances in the last race at Tampa Bay Downs. Today's inside post position should be just fine. Horse has improved at least 2 speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that positive increase to continue in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TEXAS GANO (ML=2/1), #2 ORAZIO (ML=3/1), #5 LAUDERDALE (ML=5/1),

TEXAS GANO - This horse hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of races. This probable favorite may be out of shape without any recent morning blow outs. ORAZIO - Speed figs of 83/73/61 are started the wrong way.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MARV'S MAGIC - The race on February 25th had a class rating of 89 while today's class rating is 84. I got to bet this one on such a big drop.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 MARV'S MAGIC is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:28pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 37

Rating:

#3 BLUE EVEN SCORE (ML=3/1)
#5 BRIANA HARPER (ML=5/1)


BLUE EVEN SCORE - This filly's last rating is high enough to win here, I'll bet on her right back this time. Ran last time out against much better horses at FanDuel Horse Racing. The move to a lower class rank should suit her well. I look for a significant improvement right here with the addition of Lasix for the 2nd time. BRIANA HARPER - I like the fact that this first time starter has been working over the same track she'll be making her debut on. Gets help from Essenpreis with the addition of Lasix.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 DART ATTACK (ML=7/2), #4 BUGSY'S WAVE RYDER (ML=4/1), #6 TINA'S TAPIZAR (ML=8/1),

DART ATTACK - Should be difficult for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the likely underpriced contenders list. BUGSY'S WAVE RYDER - This horse hasn't shown much life in the last pair of races. TINA'S TAPIZAR - Didn't end up on the board on May 16th at FanDuel Horse Racing. Followed it up with another lackluster outing.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 BLUE EVEN SCORE on the nose if you can get odds of 6/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8100 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 CHORIST 4/5
# 3 CROSSTOWN GIRL 12/1
# 1 COURTED 9/2

CHORIST looks respectable to best this field. Has earned formidable speed figures in dirt route races in the past. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Salazarbecerra will probably have this filly in excellent position to win the race. Recorded a respectable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. CROSSTOWN GIRL - Earned a solid Equibase Speed Figure last time out. She has garnered competitive figs under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this field. COURTED - Put up a strong speed fig last time out. Shows strong speed figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field.