Monday 6/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:12 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 12, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card set to begin the week. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool begins in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM ET)

6-Rocknroll Runa A (7-1)-Ships in from Plainridge and Stratton will do the steering. Has the gate speed to get a good seat and with a well-time move can take a picture. Has raced here 3 times, posted 1 win and has finished 2nd twice. Looking for prices in this leg as #4-Hellabalou (9/5) will probably be bet. Will look to fade him, could be a vulnerable chalk.
7-Jack's Legend (6-1)-If Kakaley times the gate well he could blast out and might land on the point. Offers some value and has the ability to wire the field at a solid price.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Shadow Cat (6-1)-Likes to race near the top of the stack and Holland should be there throughout. If the trip comes together this 8-year-old could surprise at nice odds.
3-Fortify (5/2)-Brennan should have the pedal down and land on the engine. Could be difficult to collar with this post draw.
5-Townline All Good (2-1)-This winner in 5 of 15 starts this year is versatile. Can race on the lead or come off a helmet and does good work at Yonkers.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

3-Witchita Lineman (3-1)-The last 2 races have been dull tries but drops and gets post relief. Stratton should be aggressive, may land on the point and make every call a winning one.
8-Splash Brother (4-1)-Can compete with this kind and the post makes the price. Doesn't need to get on the engine to win and Zeron should be in striking around the 3/4's pole.

Race 12 (10:40 PM EST)

1-Better B Swift (8/5)-Winner of 2 straight at this level should be a player at a tiny price. Interestingly, the Blumenfeld trainee was 0-29 at Yonkers before the 5-12 start that led to a win and now is 3-32. Best to respect, and should be brimming with confidence.
3-Keystone Dash (4-1)-This will be a test but tries hard and the Herrera barn has been clicking. Willing to use for a couple of reasons. Looks like a trip out candidate, could land in the pocket behind the chalk and might be overlooked at the windows.

1.00 Late Pick 4

6,7/1,3,5/3,8/1,3
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#4 Foxxy Cleopatra	Nothing in here from the Hamm barn that typically rules the local short 2-year-old races, but Rivelli used to be the king of short synthetic sprints for young horses at Arlington, and I'll bet she's here for a reason.
#2 Two Hearted	She brings an experience edge on most of these while making her second start, and she already showed a little bit of talent with similar local company. Obvious player with any step forward.
#5 Spending Cuts	Firster is one of two to go from the Potts barn, so get a look at both of them on the tote and track, as this team has landed a couple races like this over the last couple years.
Race Summary	Foxxy Cleopatra debuts for Larry Rivelli, who has been sending horses here with purpose so far this season, and I'm always going to take a long look at a juvenile firster out of this barn on synthetic footing -- not sure anyone other than Wesley Ward knows how to get them ready better for a spot like this.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#7 Flight to Paradise	He was just a touch eager in the comeback run, but he stayed on well after tracking the pace that day, and he probably has room to come forward in the second start off the break today. One-run finish from midpack this time around?
#8 Sun Daddy	The form on paper fits well with these, but he has historically seemed to want just a tiny bit cheaper than this for his best stuff. Not much to argue about on form.
#4 Extrasexybigdaddee	He was pretty good here last year and brings decent Gulfstream form from earlier this year, and I like that he has a little versatility in his running style that should allow him to adapt to however the pace shapes up here.
Race Summary	This feels like an extremely good/competitive race for the local level -- think you can make a pretty solid case for about seven or eight of them. Flight to Paradise can step up after the comeback run, and I think he's going to find a really cozy spot while settled behind a few committed pace players.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#2 Dad's Lil Spark	Debuter is a fresh face in a race without a whole lot by way of proven form on paper, and they obviously don't have really high hopes for this son of Flintshire at first asking. Check him out ahead of time, but he might be interesting here.
#6 Grave Danger	The barn excels with these kinds, but this guy has already had his share of chances with similar and doesn't typically pose a serious threat to the winner. Some upside in the second run off the bench. Capable, just not for me.
#7 Bialystock	Tactical speed cuts the price tag in half for this one and finds his easiest spot yet, but I have a mild concern about his willingness to give away ground in the final call in his races. Obvious threat with cheaper, but maybe vulnerable late at too short a price?
Race Summary	Dad's Lil Spark at least hasn't run a bad one yet, and this feels like a race that is crying out for someone to step up and land it. Let's see if this debuter can get the job done with a fairly steady series of works to his name ahead of this. Think #1 Blown Out is worth tossing on the deeper tickets with some class-dropping upside out of Indiana.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:13 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Fort Erie - Race #5

#2 FRESH DREAMS (7-2)	Lightly-raced 8yo can return quick claim dividend and join $200k Club.
#6 REMEMBEROLDTYMES (9-2)	Was 3-for-3 at Fort Erie before she dueled and faded in 2023 debut.
#4 FUN COOL (4-1)	Led at stretch call in her last three starts, winning one at bottom level.
Race Summary	FRESH DREAMS made the most of limited starts as a 7-year-old, winning twice in four starts. She won going away in two sprints for a claiming tag. She flattened out from a good striking spot in her seasonal debut but is perfectly spotted off the claim. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #6

#3 FLAT OUT ANGEL (4-1)	Took money in new barn, rallied wide for third, tries turf for first time.
#1 MIZZ GEMMA (9-2)	Useful return off eight-month layoff, should be forwardly placed from the rail.
#4 SHE’S SO COLD (6-1)	Some troubled starts, good try two back at Woodbine, showed little on lawn.
Race Summary	The field is a combined 0-for-68 with only four seconds and winless in 17 starts on turf. FLAT OUT ANGEL showed a pulse in her Fort Erie debut, rallying 6-wide in a six-horse field to finish third. She has some decent back numbers and makes her second start for this barn. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #7

#7 M C JACKHAMMER (3-1)	Second to short-priced winner in 2 of last 3 allowances, gets Lasix again.
#4 SCENIC HOLIDAY (8-1)	Confidently spotted off the claim, will be running late, use in exotics.
#1 VOYANT (7-2)	Close-up second in last three allowances at 5F, been away since September.
Race Summary	M C JACKHAMMER chased the odds-on favorite around the track and held second in his seasonal debut. He has tactical speed and a good post to use it from at his best distance. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 2	Win / Place / Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) / Daily Double Pick 3 (.50 Minimum)
Starter Allowance $20,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $25,800 • Post: 4:27P
FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $20,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 12, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MEDICINE TAIL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MEDICINE TAIL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLEETRIDGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DAVIDIC LINE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HARD ATTACK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	MEDICINE TAIL	5/2	3/1
1	FLEETRIDGE	9/5	9/2
2	DAVIDIC LINE	7/2	7/1
5	HARD ATTACK	3/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	MEDICINE TAIL	4	5/2	Front-runner	91	96	80.6	94.4	89.9
1	FLEETRIDGE	1	9/5	Stalker	103	92	105.8	91.4	85.9
2	DAVIDIC LINE	2	7/2	Stalker	95	86	86.6	89.2	81.7
3	ALLO ENRY	3	5/1	Stalker	80	80	71.8	76.0	68.0
5	HARD ATTACK	5	3/1	Trailer	96	84	52.9	80.7	77.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger LakesPURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 1	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 1-2-3-4)
Allowance • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 1:15P
FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A STATE BRED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * B B'S BUSTED: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KEEPMYEYEONTHEBOYS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
4	B B'S BUSTED	1/1	9/5
2	KEEPMYEYEONTHEBOYS	8/5	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	WINTER SIREN	3	20/1	Front-runner	64	53	72.2	47.6	38.1
1	SALOON GIRL	1	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	68	58	55.0	55.8	49.8
4	B B'S BUSTED	4	1/1	Trailer	90	84	63.0	68.8	66.8
2	KEEPMYEYEONTHEBOYS	2	8/5	Trailer	76	70	60.7	60.7	56.7
5	STAY HOME MAMA	5	6/1	Trailer	66	49	43.4	54.0	45.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:14 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10100 Class Rating: 71

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 GREAT REALIZATION 12/1
# 1 TARA TATTOO 3/1
# 6 LIVERYMAN 5/1

I think GREAT REALIZATION is a competitive choice and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. Is a solid contender - given the 59 speed rating from his most recent race. Has a strong shot in this contest if you like back class. Strong average Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a key contender. TARA TATTOO - Is tough not to examine based on Speed Figures which have been strong - 70 avg - of late. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of very good win percentage - 17 percent - at this distance & surface. LIVERYMAN - Has to be carefully examined versus this group of horses displaying respectable figures recently and an average speed fig of 57 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:27pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#2 SHE'D RATHER DANCE (ML=5/1)

SHE'D RATHER DANCE - We have lots of early speed with this magnificent animal. She could wire this field. Took a big class drop last out, and I think she may have needed it. Vitali enters her at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. Recent Equibase speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 RUNNETH OVER (ML=5/2), #1 ANA L (ML=3/1), #6 AIR ONE (ML=7/2),

RUNNETH OVER - Trying to beat this participant this time around at the reward of 5/2. ANA L - This horse hasn't been close in either of her last two efforts. Common speed fig in the last race at Presque Isle Downs at 6 furlongs. Don't think this pony will improve too much in today's race. AIR ONE - Doesn't appear to have enough positive qualities to bear out the price.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 SHE'D RATHER DANCE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:14 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 69

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SONYA KNOWS BETTER 5/2
# 3 SNAKEBIT 8/1
# 7 OWEN THE ICE MAN 3/1

I've got to go with SONYA KNOWS BETTER. Is worth careful consideration and may be a wager - strong Speed Figures (70 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Ran a sharp last race. Has a sharp shot in this event if you like back class. SNAKEBIT - Must be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-12-2023, 11:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,800 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#9 WARRIOR EMPRESS (ML=6/1)
#1 ICE FLOE (ML=6/1)
#2 MIZZEN (ML=5/1)

WARRIOR EMPRESS - Hasn't run at today's distance recently but does have a rating notched last time she tried this distance good enough to win. This mare is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Clouston. This horse didn't run well on a track listed as good in her last race at Mountaineer Park. You probably want to discount that effort. ICE FLOE - I like that last effort on May 29th at Mountaineer Park where she finished second. I have to like this filly's winning probability at the shorter distance. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should compete well today. Getting a weight break of 5 lbs from last race at Mountaineer Park on May 29th. This should help in today's race. MIZZEN - This mare is in excellent physical condition right now. Ended up first in the last race and comes back soon. I like this mare. Has the uppermost earnings per race in this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 COASTAL RUN (ML=8/5), #3 HERO'S DAUGHTER (ML=8/1), #6 SHE MAKES ME TIZZY (ML=8/1),

COASTAL RUN - You should normally wager against chalk that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list. HERO'S DAUGHTER - Difficult to play at 8/1 odds after the most recent efforts. This mare hasn't had any strong finishes in sprint contests in the last 60 days. SHE MAKES ME TIZZY - This entrant gave a lackluster effort last time out of the box finishing fifth. Don't expect improvement in today's race. Common speed fig last race out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - WARRIOR EMPRESS - I like investing on big class droppers like this one. Much easier bunch this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #9 WARRIOR EMPRESS on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,9] with [1,2,9] with [1,2,8,9,10] with [1,2,8,9,10] Total Cost: $36