Tuesday 5/23/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#2 Shot Girl	Get a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this, but mom had a little quality to her on synthetic footing, and I wonder if she'll offer an ok price with the presence of the likely chalk inside.
#1 Alexandra's Song	No doubt she's the one to beat for one of the best in the business with horses like this, but Ward hasn't typically sent a lot of horses like this here recently (Hamm barn rules the local roost in 2yo maidens), and she's sure to get bet based on the connections. Pace and experience edge obviously can make her tough.
#3 Two Hearted	No real opinions on paper once I got past the top two and trying to use Shot Girl to beat Alexandra's Song, but this one is another going first time out with a pretty regular series of works to her name. Maybe.
Race Summary	Shot Girl has some appeal ahead of this one into what is likely to be a short price on the second-timer out of Wesley Ward's barn. You get a top local rider signed on at first asking with a forward-looking worktab.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#8 All Our Munny	Strong lean here on race shape with just a couple mild potential pace players signed on, and I think he's just quick enough to find a decent spot spying those forward players. Sign me up.
#3 Pike Place	He might wind up getting a perfect trip just pressing the pace drawn outside of him, but I have a mild worry about his ability to pass horses, though I think he's a pretty formidable fit on form.
#6 Kitten Around	Wouldn't be surprised to see him take a step forward off the bench into his 3-year-old season, as he handled the local footing nicely in his second career start here last fall. Could be interested at the right price.
Race Summary	All Our Munny and Pike Place seem like the right ones, but the former should offer a better price and might have just a touch more appeal from a rating spot. #4 Templet wouldn't be a shock right back if he's allowed to control the tempo, but I'm not convinced the price is going to be reflective of his chances.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#5 Ostara	Think this race is crying out for anyone who can run on with any enthusiasm at all, and I wonder if she can settle back and produce a very mild, one-paced rally that's enough to get her past the pace.
#2 Detailed	Not sure she's getting the best race shape, but she went right to the bench after the first run off the claim here last year and returns in a reasonable spot with what appears to be a decent string of works. Interesting at a mid-range price.
#4 Libertalia	I don't know. She's probably supposed to win this one on baseline form, but she's heading into her 20th lifetime start and has given away ground in the stretch call in nine of the 10 races on her page. That said, she has been racing for more than twice this price and could probably win this race with her A- effort more times than not.
Race Summary	Ostara isn't much on paper, but she has run the two best races of her career over the local footing and is meeting, and I'm not thrilled about the way most of these figure to be staying on late. Price might be right.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Finger Lakes - Race #4

#1 DOUBLE VISION (4-1)	Took late money, checked out early off layoff, returns at proven distance.
#2 MARBLE MOON (3-1)	Has loyal following, tries sprinting again after 9/0-0-0 campaign.
#7 PREFERRED OUTCOME (5-2)	Dueled, caught late at 5F, finished second for 20th time in 58 starts.
Race Summary	DOUBLE VISION settled into a good 3-wide striking spot early but checked off heels and lost all interest in his seasonal debut. He appears an all-or-nothing type at a distance which he’s 3-for-8. Bet to win and place.

Finger Lakes - Race #5

#3 HOORAY FOR HARVEY (5-1)	Right set-up, right price in third start for new barn this year.
#4 PROFESSOR DAVE (4-1)	Beaten fave in 4-1/2F comeback, takes some catching in this spot.
#2 MAGNIFICENT CHROME (5-2)	Aqueduct invader dropped back on turn, re-rallied to win.
Race Summary	HOORAY FOR HARVEY unwound too late in a well-bet second start for this barn. He galloped out well, gets an extra furlong to run and should get more pace flow with the added presence of PROFESSOR DAVE. Bet to win and place.

Finger Lakes - Race #6

#3 TYRONNOSAURAS REX (3-1)	Eliminated early, rallied 5-wide for second, today’s Best Bet.
#2 HYPER SPEED (5-2)	Faced better out of town, plagued by troubled starts, vet voided claim April 8.
#7 GOLD TEMPLAR (5-1)	Second start as gelding, first with Lasix, could prove best of the rest.
Race Summary	TYRONNOSAURAS REX, far back after a jostled break, gained steadily while 5-wide on a sloppy track in the final quarter. He couldn’t reach the winning favorite but got up to finish second. Bet to win and place and play 3-2 and 3-7 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 5	$2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 4 (races 5-8) $.50 Wheel
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $21,200 • Post: 8:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 23 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (MAIDEN OR CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES)(W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * WELLMAN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SECRET'S DOUBLE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WAR NOVEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+ " designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. POTENTIAL GRIZZLY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	WELLMAN	3/1	4/1
8	SECRET'S DOUBLE	9/2	7/1
7	WAR NOVEL	6/1	8/1
1	POTENTIAL GRIZZLY	8/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	WAR NOVEL	7	6/1	Front-runner	87	85	73.4	63.2	56.7
5	MAMBA TWENTY FOUR	5	15/1	Front-runner	78	67	71.4	60.0	46.0
8	SECRET'S DOUBLE	8	9/2	Front-runner	84	81	70.2	74.6	66.1
3	INDIAN EMPIRE	3	6/1	Front-runner	76	78	59.6	70.0	59.5
4	WELLMAN	4	3/1	Stalker	86	73	69.2	74.6	70.6
1	POTENTIAL GRIZZLY	1	8/1	Stalker	85	75	60.2	65.2	58.7
6	EMJAY	6	5/1	Trailer	85	76	29.4	69.0	57.0
2	STORMIN ROCKET	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	71	76	65.4	66.6	57.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 8	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Optional Claiming $80,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 105 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 6:07P
(RAIL AT 48 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED SINCE NOVEMBER 23, 2022 OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE ISTAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * OCEANIC: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ha s the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NOBODY LISTENS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHARCOAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SPYCRAFT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	OCEANIC	8/5	7/2
1	NOBODY LISTENS	2/1	7/1
6	CHARCOAL	10/1	8/1
2	SPYCRAFT	9/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	NOBODY LISTENS	1	2/1	Front-runner	109	105	107.8	92.5	86.5
7	CREATIVE CREDIT	7	12/1	Front-runner	103	106	107.0	92.8	82.3
3	SHIMMER ME TIMBERS	3	20/1	Front-runner	91	87	102.3	83.1	69.1
2	SPYCRAFT	2	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	105	104	87.2	97.2	87.2
6	CHARCOAL	6	10/1	Stalker	111	102	95.8	97.6	89.1
5	OCEANIC	5	8/5	Stalker	112	112	93.2	103.6	100.1
9	VULCAN	9	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	104	95	80.6	76.8	65.3
8	WENT WEST	8	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	104	104	62.3	91.3	79.8
4	UNPREDICTABLE BAY	4	12/1	Trailer	100	95	64.5	75.8	62.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ZENCHUA SKY 3/1
# 1 MINI DRESS 4/1
# 3 AIKEN TO BE TAKIN 5/1

I think ZENCHUA SKY is a decent choice. Bailon has an excellent return on investment over the past 30 days (+4) which should help investors with this choice. Garnered a formidable speed figure last time out. The average class figure of 53 makes this entrant difficult to beat. MINI DRESS - She has been racing soundly as of late while recording solid Equibase speed figs. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. AIKEN TO BE TAKIN - Looks respectable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races recently. The conditioner wheels this one back almost immediately to race again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:28pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#8 DISTORTED VIEW (ML=4/1)
#10 WHITE LILACS (ML=7/2)


DISTORTED VIEW - Have to give this race horse a long hard look. In recent races, has posted the best speed figs on the turf at this distance. The jock and conditioner combination have a profitable ROI when they work together. This filly gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. Its possible this could make the difference today. Average class rating is tops in this group. I think that is a big edge for a turf race. WHITE LILACS - Last time this filly ran today's trip she got a rating that would probably win today's affair. Likes to go to the front end and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be advantageous. Entered a $25,000 Claiming race at Meadowlands in the last race and raced on the soft turf finishing eighth. Expect better right here. The Oct 22nd affair at Meadowlands was at a class level of (84). Dropping down the class ladder a significant amount, so she should be in a good place.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 TITANIC ROSE (ML=5/2), #5 CASH ON FIRST (ML=9/2), #4 COACH HAS SIX ACES (ML=9/2),

TITANIC ROSE - This equine doesn't have a tenacious character. Quite often finishes in the place and show hole. Not likely that this mount can be victorious in this sprint after showing no speed in that last route race. CASH ON FIRST - This mare finished outside the top 3 on Feb 22nd and wasn't near the winner in the last race either. Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance contests in order to bet on her. COACH HAS SIX ACES - 9/2 is not pegged at the proper price for any horse in a sprint of 7 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint affair of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 DISTORTED VIEW to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 4:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#7 BIALYSTOCK (ML=6/1)
#5 GEMINI MOON (ML=6/1)


BIALYSTOCK - Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is up against an easier bunch than in the last race at Tampa Bay Downs. After a nice race two starts ago, this animal bounced. Now today, I expect another good performance. GEMINI MOON - DePasquale has this gelding entered in the perfect race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SAVVY ON BLANC (ML=5/2), #3 RISENGOLD (ML=7/2), #1 JUSTICEOFTHEPEACE (ML=4/1),

SAVVY ON BLANC - Last ran on Apr 1st at Turfway Park, finishing ninth. Unlikely to get better off of that effort today. RISENGOLD - Doesn't seem to have enough good qualities to support the value. JUSTICEOFTHEPEACE - Tough to bet on any thoroughbred like this that didn't finish in the money after the long vacation and comes right back.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 BIALYSTOCK on the win end if we get at least 6/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FL

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 73

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 23, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CONFORMIST 2/1
# 4 CHAMPION BY DESIGN 7/2
# 3 WAR OF THRONES 5/2

I like CONFORMIST here. Has been close up at the finish most every time as of late. The average class rating alone makes this entrant a key contender. He has earned quite good numbers under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this group. CHAMPION BY DESIGN - Has to be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Shows formidable Equibase speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. WAR OF THRONES - Could best this field based on the speed figure - 73 - of his last outing. I would lean toward this gelding on the jock and handler numbers alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
— Nuggets 113, Lakers 111— Denver is in NBA Finals for the first time.
— Dodgers 8, Braves 6— Freeman homered in his old home ballpark.
— Astros 12, Brewers 2— Alvarez homered twice, had five RBI.
— Angels 2, Red Sox 1— Moniak’s homer in the 8th was a game-winner.
— Tigers 8, Royals 5 (10)— Baez had three hits, knocked in three runs.
— Guardians 3, White Sox 0— Gaddis tossed six shutout innings.

Quote of the Day
“I’ve got a trig midterm tomorrow and I’m being chased by Guido, the killer pimp.”
Miles, Risky Business

Tuesday’s quiz
Bob Uecker won a World Series ring as a backup catcher for which team?

Monday’s quiz
Joe Maddon was managing the Tampa Bay Rays the first time they played in a World Series.

Sunday’s quiz
Pat Riley coached the Lakers for eight years, winning three NBA titles. Mike Dunleavy Sr took his place coaching the Lakers.
Posted onMay 23, 2023Leave a commenton Tuesday’s 6-pack, Quote, Quiz of the DayTuesday’s Den: Schedule notes for NFC teams……


NFC East
Dallas
— Open against Giants for 7th time in last 12 years.
— Weeks 5-6, consecutive west coast games at 49ers, Chargers.
— Three of their first six games are in primetime.
— Week 15 in Buffalo, Week 18 in Washington- potential cold weather games.

Giants
— Four of their first six games are in primetime.
— Week 2, @ Arizona; Week 3, Thursday game at San Francisco
— Weeks 9-11, consecutive road games, at Las Vegas, Dallas, Washington
— Play their last two games at home, vs Rams/Eagles.

Philadelphia
— Four of their first six games are on the road.
— Host old friend Jonathan Gannon when Cardinals visit New Year’s Eve.
— Have five primetime games, three of them on road.
— Two games against the Giants are in Weeks 16, 18.

Washington
— Low expectations from NFL; Week 5 is only primetime game.
— Weeks 6-10, have four road games in five-week span.
— Visit Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.
— Have a late bye, Week 14.

NFC North
Chicago
— Play Green Bay in their opener; rematch is in Week 18.
— Have four primetime games, three of them on road.
— Weeks 8-12, have four road games in five-week span, all in domes.
— Weeks 14-18 all figure to be cold weather tilts (@ Cleveland/Green Bay)

Detroit
— Four primetime games, including Week 1 at Super Bowl champ Chiefs.
— Week 14 at Chicago is their only outdoor game after October 22.
— Weeks 13-17, have four road games in five-week span.
— Two games against the Vikings are in Weeks 16, 18.

Green Bay
— Open with road games at Chicago, Atlanta.
— Week 6 is an early bye week.
— Have five primetime games, three of them on road.
— Visit the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Minnesota
— Short work week in Week 2, Thursday game at Philadelphia.
— Five primetime games, three of them on road.
— Chiefs visit Twin Cities in Week 5, a Super Bowl IV rematch.
— Week 11 at Denver, Week 15 at Cincinnati potential cold weather games.

NFC South
Atlanta
— Play five of their first six games at home.
— Week 4, they play the Jaguars in England.
— Week 13 at Jets, Week 17 at Chicago potential cold weather games.
— 13 of 16 listed games are at 1o ET; low expectations from NFL

Carolina
— Four of their first six games are on the road.
— Weeks 12-14, have road games at Titans, Bucs, Saints.
— Two primetime games; Week 2 vs Saints, Week 10 at Chicago.
— Frank Reich’s old team, the Colts, visit Charlotte in Week 9.

New Orleans
— Four of their first six games are on the road.
— Weeks 13-15, have three consecutive home games.
— Short work week in Week 16, a Thursday game at the Rams.
— Week 17 at Tampa Bay is their only outdoor game after October 8th.

Tampa Bay
— 12 of 16 listed games are at 1:00 ET; low expectations.
— Two primetime games; Week 2 vs Eagles, Week 8 at Buffalo.
— Baker Mayfield faces Carolina, his old team, in Weeks 13, 18.
— Week 15 at Lambeau Field figures to be a cold weather game.

NFC West
Arizona
— No primetime games; very low expectations.
— December road games in Pittsburgh, Chicago, Philly……..brrrrr
— Their three NFC West road games are in Weeks 4-6-7.
— Have Week 14 bye week, very late.

Rams
— Three of their first four games are on the road.
— Weeks 5-7, have three consecutive home games.
— Two primetime games: Week 3 at Cincinnati, Week 16 vs Saints.
— Week 14 at Ravens, Week 17 at Giants figure to be cold weather games.

San Francisco
— Open season with road games at Steelers, Rams.
— Have three consecutive home games, in Weeks 3-5.
— Have five primetime games, three of them at home.
— Week 13 at Philly, Week 17 at Washington figure to be cold weather games.

Seattle
— Week 5 bye week is an early one.
— Have three primetime games, two of them on road.
— Host the 49ers on Thanksgiving night.
— Have four of last six games on road, but none in cold weather.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DALLAS are 10-3 Over (6.7 Units) in home games revenging 2 consecutive losses to opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Tuesday, May 23

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 23

VEGAS (61-25-0-9, 131 pts.) at DALLAS (54-25-1-17, 126 pts.) - 5/23/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 61-34 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
VEGAS is 36-20 ATS (+11.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
VEGAS is 32-18 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VEGAS is 23-11 ATS (+34.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 31-27 ATS (-20.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 8-13 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 4-4 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-4-0 straight up against VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.8 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Tuesday, May 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Vegas @ Dallas
Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Vegas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Vegas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, May 23