Tuesday 5/9/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Will Rogers Downs - Race #6

#2 Cowboy Mischief	Think he has a claim on this as maybe the second choice on the board, as he has proven a really good fit with the local company in his first two tries here this season. Something similar to his last keeps him right there.
#4 Number One Dude	He has some room to improve here after finishing midpack in his three Oaklawn starts this season, and he has the right kind of tactical pace to sit close throughout. The one to beat.
#5 Tommyhawk	He has been doing his recent work from off the pace in sprint races, but I think he's exiting some decent spots that leave him in competitive form while stretching out with this group.
Race Summary	Cowboy Mischief might have found his home going long on the dirt at this point in time, and I'm hoping the presence of the other listed pair will be enough to keep the price just playable.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#4 Chillaxification	I think she's fast enough to force the other forward players to press a bit, and I wonder if she might be sitting on another good one in this third start back. Like that she has proven her class with this kind in the past.
#5 Dicey	I think she's supposed to win this based on her recent form seeming a solid cut above most of these, but her two-turn game is a bit more questionable. Won't be shocked to see her dust these, but I'm willing to take a shot against at a likely short price.
#7 Gotta See Red	Never really sure what you're going to get with this one, but her better tries keep her in the picture for a piece of this. She might draw up a decent enough spying trip.
Race Summary	Chillaxification has some appeal at what should be a mid-range price, and I think she'll find the front in here with a chance to wire her second group in a row since getting back around two turns.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #10

#3 Daretocatchlove	I'm not too excited to sign up for any of those who have run already, and this filly goes first out after working regularly through last month. The barn landed a similar race with a $140 first timer here a couple years ago, so I'll take a shot.
#7 Dodgeball	She has been reliable through her first four starts, and she has the right pace to keep her in the mix early on in a spot where it wouldn't be any surprise to see her cruise. That said, I'm not seeing a ton of upside in her pretty established form, and I can't imagine the price is going to be appealing.
#6 Grace the Lady	She outran her 36/1 price here last month, and she gets a better draw to maybe track the pace and avoid getting hung out to dry on the turn again. Think she's in the mix if she steps forward off the debut run.
Race Summary	Taking a swing in the finale where Dodgeball has the credentials but likely little appeal on the board, and everyone else with experience needs to show more. Daretocatchlove goes first out for a team that popped with one at a huge price here in the past and is 14:2-2-1 with similar locals in the last couple years. Not a bad run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #2

#2 ALL HAIL MO (9-2)	Duplicate of latest might be enough in suspect field.
#6 BOSS LIKE BETH (5-1)	Could take some catching with first-time Lasix.
#1 DIVINARY (4-1)	Overcame slow pace and traffic to win two starts ago.
Race Summary	ALL HAIL MO is the safest play in a field loaded with question marks. She broke her maiden at this level and distance and chased the 3-to-5 winner while 4-wide last out. Four of her rivals exit a race in which the odds-on favorite stumbled early and never factored. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #5

#6 EL GRAN CUYAYA (5-2)	Game front-end try in first long-distance test, claimed by Lake.
#4 FIRST TO LAST (8-5)	Was ‘in striking range’ on turn, gets class relief, weight break and Lasix.
#8 KANE (10-1)	Lacked rally against top one, could get up for minor awards at a price.
Race Summary	EL GRAN CUYAYA emerged from a backstretch duel on the lead, braced for a second challenge from the winner and held second at this distance. He gets a new rider and could have his new stablemate, class-dropping First To Last, to beat. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #6

#7 STRUGAR (7-2)	Model of consistency, 3-for-5 at distance, makes third start of cycle.
#1 GET THE W (3-1)	Shrugged off longshot, held off closers for third straight win in long sprints.
#3 AIN’T WASTING TIME (6	Productive winter in Florida, runs well fresh, use in gimmicks.
Race Summary	STRUGAR, first or second in his last five starts, ranged up 3-wide on the turn and stayed on well to finish second to pace setter GET THE W at 7F last out. He could get a better pace set-up at a shorter distance today and offers good value at 7-2 on the morning line for a win and place wager.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 6	$1.00 Daily Double (Races 6-7) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $10,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 3:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR IBF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. EVERLOVINGHAND is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * YOU'RE IN COREY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. EVERLOVINGHAND: Hor se has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. IRISH DECLARATION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SEMINOLE BEA CH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	YOU'RE IN COREY	5/1	9/2
1	EVERLOVINGHAND	5/1	5/1
3	IRISH DECLARATION	5/2	6/1
5	SEMINOLE BEACH	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	EVERLOVINGHAND	1	5/1	Front-runner	89	81	97.2	57.8	50.8
4	YOU'RE IN COREY	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	97	85	83.8	76.0	73.0
5	SEMINOLE BEACH	5	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	89	77	77.0	74.8	67.8
2	VIOLENZA D'ORO	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	72	66.8	66.8	57.3
3	IRISH DECLARATION	3	5/2	Trailer	92	73	67.8	83.2	77.7
6	MAC PANDOWDY	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	74	67.3	58.8	48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger LakesPURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 5	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 5-6) * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 5-6-7-8)
Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $26,700 • Post: 3:11P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TODO SOLA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TODO SOLA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. QUEENS DANCER: Horse r acing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. A MAIZE ZING DOTIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GUNS BLAZING: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
6	TODO SOLA	8/1	4/1
1	QUEENS DANCER	7/2	6/1
7	A MAIZE ZING DOTIE	3/1	6/1
4	GUNS BLAZING	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	TODO SOLA	6	8/1	Front-runner	87	75	93.4	74.8	68.8
1	QUEENS DANCER	1	7/2	Front-runner	82	81	86.0	72.6	60.1
7	A MAIZE ZING DOTIE	7	3/1	Front-runner	80	73	79.4	66.6	62.1
4	GUNS BLAZING	4	4/1	Front-runner	84	68	73.8	72.4	64.4
5	NO CHALK	5	5/1	Stalker	75	70	69.8	72.8	66.3
3	DARN THAT SONG	3	6/1	Stalker	72	70	58.4	59.8	49.3
8	LEFT LEANING LUCY	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	69	69.6	68.4	59.4
2	SHE'S GOT GAME	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	67	47.0	53.9	39.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:34pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#2 DELIGHTFUL DREAMER (ML=6/1)
#3 CINNAMON DREAM (ML=7/2)


DELIGHTFUL DREAMER - Linder must have known this mare would run well at this track. Won her last race here on April 17th and now goes for back-to-back wins. When Vives and Linder team up on equines the return on investment has been wonderful at +251. Atop this racer on April 17th and Vives is right back in the irons this race. Have to make this mare a solid contender; she comes off a strong contest on Apr 17th. CINNAMON DREAM - This mare is in nice condition, having run a strong race on Apr 25th, finishing second.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISS CHAMITA (ML=5/2), #7 SPRINKLE THIS (ML=4/1), #6 JOHNNYSLITTLEGIRL (ML=9/2),

MISS CHAMITA - This probable favorite may be out of form without any recent morning blow outs. SPRINKLE THIS - Didn't show much run last time out of the box. Probably won't do much running in today's race. Finished seventh in her most recent effort with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. JOHNNYSLITTLEGIRL - This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last two efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 DELIGHTFUL DREAMER is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7900 Class Rating: 77

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BECKHAM JAMES 9/5
# 1 FROSTED WHITE FACE 10/1
# 8 PERFECT PICTURE 12/1

BECKHAM JAMES is my choice. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. Has run admirably when running a dirt sprint race. Batista has a win percentage of 18 over the last 30 days. FROSTED WHITE FACE - Ran a sharp last race. PERFECT PICTURE - Reed has this gelding travelling well and is a very good pick based on the decent Equibase speed figs earned in sprint races lately. With Hernandez controlling the reins on him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out sharply in this competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $7,500, ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ABSAROKA 5/1
# 3 ROCKPORT KAT 5/2
# 1 CANEY'S GHOST 6/1

ABSAROKA has a respectable shot to take this race. Has competed solidly in dirt route races. Should compete very well in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group. Ran a strong last race. ROCKPORT KAT - His earnings per start in dirt route contests alone makes you take a look at him. Have to suppose this animal will do well again this time out. CANEY'S GHOST - Has to be given a shot based on the formidable speed figure put up in the last outing. This gelding with Wethey in the irons makes him a key contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #5 - Post: 2:50pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,400 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#5 PRIVATE DRIVE (ML=3/1)
#4 TIGER TRAIL (ML=6/1)
#6 KID RUSSELL (ML=2/1)
#3 BIG OHIO (ML=4/1)


PRIVATE DRIVE - Faced tougher last out at Thistledown. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. This gelding is in exceptional condition right now. Ended up third last time out and comes back promptly. I look for this pony to sit chilly and make a solid move on the turn, cruising straight on to the wire. The latest speed rating of 67 is the best last race speed rating in the field. TIGER TRAIL - The Apr 13th clash at Mahoning Valley Race Cour was at a class level of (74). Dropping down the class ladder considerably, so he should be in a good spot to take this race. Last raced at Mahoning Valley Race Cour carrying 5 pounds more. The lower weight carried right here should serve him well. KID RUSSELL - Dropping in Equibase class figure points from his Apr 25th race at Thistledown. Based on that info, I will give this one the advantage. That last blow out tells me this gelding is set for a top performance. This one has increased his speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet. BIG OHIO - Have to like this gelding today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with every race. Widely used handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Should run big today. This gelding is in exceptional form right now. Finished second last time around the track and comes back soon. This equine is uppermost in (EPS) earnings per start. He looks strong in today's clash.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NAMBITI (ML=5/1), #1 JACK BE FAST (ML=8/1),

NAMBITI - This gelding finished off the board on Apr 13th and wasn't near the winner in the last race either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 PRIVATE DRIVE on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip