Thursday 5/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:33 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 4, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has a 14-race card with the first post at 6:15 EST. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Eternal Bliss (5-1)-Makes the 3rd start off the bench, finished gamely in last but speed did not hold in that race. Is only 1-34 in 2022-23 but the P'Pool barn has been doing well over the past month. Should race near the top of the stack and is a trip-out candidate.
4-VH Princess Brea (2-1)-Ships in from MVR and has been in the mix but caught a bad trip in last. Should fit with this crew and has 1 win in 2 starts at HoP. Tetrick steers and he won with her in a $10k claiming series on 3-25 starting from post 10.
5-Bryce's Lady (3-1)-Raced evenly in the 1st start since 11-19. Camera shy 5-year-old may have met a beatable field tonight if dialed on high.

Race 12

4-Layallyourloveonme (2-1)-The 3-year-old appears to have some speed but might lack courage. This looks like an opportunity to break its maiden and De Long should work an efficient trip. Misses a start and can't fully trust, using but will look to others with more value.
8-Dixie Dream (6-1)-This will be the 2nd start off the bench and the 2nd time on Lasix. Finished a good 2nd considering starting on Lasix and being the 1st race since 9-28. The post makes the price and will for more improvement.
9-Little Addie (4-1)-Came the 2nd half in 55.1 and passing horses in the late going hasn't been an issue. Slow starts have been, but some of that was probably by design as this is only the 4th lifetime start. Has a shot to roll by down the lane if there is an honest pace.

Race 13

4-Pure Cotton (2-1)-Disappointed backers at 9/5 in the 1st race since shipping in from the east coast. De Long gave the mare an aggressive steer and lost to a horse coming out of the pocket. Raced well in a needed start and was used hard into a 54.3 1st half. This field isn't as salty and should be able to set a more modest pace.

Race 14

2-Rockinforreal (8-1)-Was used hard to get on the point from post 9 and was hung the 1st quarter. Ross pulled out of the pocket at the top of the lane and then looked over his shoulder as De Long was coming with the eventual winner. Ross quickly went back to the rail in an odd move and finished 3rd. Bates takes over tonight, will look for a better steer and an improved finish in the 3rd race on Lasix.
7-Er Griffin (5/2)-This will be the 6th lifetime start and may have solved its breaking issues. Not liking the short price on the morning line but wouldn't be surprised if goes off at longer odds. Appears to have good speed, should be a player if driven more aggressively and minds manners.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,4,5/4,8,9/4/2,7
Total Bet=$9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:34 AM

Jon White: Kentucky Derby Picks, Analysis and Strikes

May 3, 2023 | By Jon White
Oh my goodness. It appears that Saturday’s $3 million Kentucky Derby is loaded with viable candidates that possess the credentials to be posing in the winner’s circle after around two minutes of equine combat is over.

The way it’s shaping up in terms of looking to be so competitive, I think this year’s Kentucky Derby is something for horseplayers to savor beforehand. I see it as an absolutely fascinating handicapping puzzle that presents quite a challenge to try and solve.

I wrote the two paragraphs above for Xpressbet.com prior to the 2022 Kentucky Derby. And it appears to me that the 2023 renewal looks much the same way.

And what happened last year? Rich Strike pulled off a shocking victory at the humongous odds of 80-1. It was the second-biggest upset in the history of this country’s longest continuously run sporting event, topped only by 91-1 Donerail in 1913.

Rich Strike, who got the job done by three-quarters of a length last year, returned $163.60 for each $2 bet on him to win. His $2 win payoff has been exceeded only by Donerail’s $184.90 in 1913.

As for this year’s Kentucky Derby, my selections are below:

1. Practical Move (10-1 morning line)
2. Kingsbarns (12-1)
3. Tapit Trice (5-1)
4. Angel of Empire (8-1)

Rounding out my final Kentucky Derby Top 10:

5. Forte (3-1 morning-line favorite)
6. Derma Sotogake (10-1)
7. Skinner (20-1)
8. Two Phil’s (12-1)
9. Veryifying (15-1)
10. Disarm (30-1)

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 is a ranking of how I see the horses in terms of the likeliest winner. It’s not an attempt to forecast the order of finish.

Below is a horse-by-horse look at my final Kentucky Derby Top 10.

PRACTICAL MOVE. Ranked No. 1. Post position 10. Morning line 10-1. Jockey: Ramon Vazquez. Trainer: Tim Yakteen.

This is the second straight year that Yakteen trains my top pick in the Kentucky Derby. Last year it was Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba. This year it’s Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move.

I sure hope Practical Move does a lot better than Taiba. Sent away as the 5-1 second choice in Kentucky Derby wagering, Taiba finished 12th in the field of 20. The 4-1 favorite was Epicenter, who finished second. Do I regret making Taiba my top pick? I don’t. Taiba would accomplish enough last year that he finished second to Epicenter in Eclipse Award voting for champion 3-year-old male.

The way I see it, Practical Move’s speed figures, running style, class and gameness add up to giving him a good chance of having a garland of roses draped over him on Saturday.

Practical Move brings a three-race winning streak into this year’s 1 1/4-mile Churchill Downs classic. Granted, he has enjoyed a ground-saving trip each time in those three victories. Not racing wide is primarily why his Thoro-Graph numbers are not as good as his Beyer Speed Figures. Unlike the Beyers, ground loss is one of the several factors that Thoro-Graph takes into consideration when formulating a number.

In the case of Practical Move, while his Thoro-Graph numbers do leave something to be desired vis-a-vis some of the Kentucky Derby entrants, I think it is important to give the $230,000 auction purchase his due for how fast he has been running in comparison to his Kentucky Derby opponents.

As T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Times has noted, of the 16 races run at 1 1/16 miles offering Kentucky Derby points, Practical Move boasts the two fastest winning times.

In his final start at 2, Practical Move won the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity in 1:41.65. In his first race at 3, he took the Grade II San Felipe Stakes in 1:42.01. To put this into some perspective, the second-fastest winning time in the 16 races at 1 1/16 miles offering Kentucky Derby points was Forte’s 1:43.06 in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

In other words, Practical Move won the Los Alamitos Futurity about seven lengths faster and the San Felipe about five lengths faster than any other winner of the 16 Kentucky Derby points races contested at 1 1/16 miles.

Thornton also has pointed out that Practical Move’s final time of 1:48.69 when he won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby has the distinction of being the fastest of all the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby points races in 2022-23.

Practical Move goes into the Kentucky Derby as the only entrant with more than a single triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure to his credit. He recorded a 100 Beyer in the San Felipe, a figure that he matched in the Santa Anita Derby.

No horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby field has recorded a higher Beyer on dirt than Practical Move. Two Phil’s posted a 101 Beyer when he won the Grade III Jeff Ruby, but that race was decided on a synthetic surface. (Derma Sotogake did not receive an official Beyer Speed Figure for his victory in the UAE Derby on dirt, but Randy Moss of the Beyer figure-making team estimates that it would have been a 106 or 107.)

I expect to see Practical Move not all that far off the early pace, though I am a little worried about his tendency not to leave the gate quickly. He tends to need a stride or two or three to get into gear. Nevertheless, it appears to me that he has a very good chance of being first or second with a furlong to go. This is extremely important in that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second a furlong out.

In the Santa Anita Derby, Practical Move led by one length a furlong from the finish. I expected to see him kick clear in the final furlong. Instead, at the sixteenth pole it looked like both Mandarin Hero and Skinner were going to beat him. But Practical Move did run his heart out to eke out a nose victory.

On the one hand, Practical Move was very game to win the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby. On the other hand, in light of his margin shrinking from one length to a nose in the final furlong, it could be an indication that 1 1/4 miles is farther than he truly wants to go, especially inasmuch as his sire, Practical Joke, was pretty much a sprinter/miler.

What I believe might be the key to Practical Move succeeding at 1 1/4 miles is the bottom of his pedigree. His dam, Ack Naughty, is by Afleet Alex.

Afleet Alex possessed the stamina to win the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes by seven lengths. That followed his remarkable triumph in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes, which he won by nearly five lengths despite stumbling badly when he clipped heels coming into the stretch.

I was originally concerned that Practical Move ran so hard to win the Santa Anita Derby that maybe it took a toll on him. But his first workout after that race eased my mind in this regard.

Practical Move worked in company with the speedy stakes-winning 3-year-old Kangaroo Court at Santa Anita on April 21. Practical Move, without any urging, was timed in a brisk :47.00 for the four-furlong drill. After being about a head in front at the wire, Practical Move proceeded to gallop out with zest, getting five furlongs in :59 and change, according to Yakteen.

You can watch Practical Move’s April 21 workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/kangaroo-...ril-21st-2023/

In a solo workout at Santa Anita on April 28, Practical Move again looked sharp when completing five furlongs in :59.60.

You can watch Practical Move’s April 28 workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/practical...ril-28th-2023/

I am quite comfortable with Vazquez riding Practical Move in the Kentucky Derby. Now that Vazquez has been riding on the Southern California circuit, I’ve been watching him closely and really like what I’ve seen. Just last Saturday at Santa Anita, he rode four winners on the card.

Practical Move’s three-race winning streak going into the Kentucky Derby has coincided with a switch to Vazquez. In all three races that they’ve been a team, Vazquez has had Practical Move in front with a furlong to go.

I also feel that Practical Move did well by getting post position 10 rather than something like 1-2-3-4 or 17-18-19-20.

Chad Brown has yet to win the Kentucky Derby as a trainer. But he has a chance to do so as a breeder. Practical Move was bred by Brown and Head of Plains Partners (Sol Kumin, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, Jim Pallotta and Jim Caray).

Brown took a serious run at winning the 2018 Kentucky Derby with Good Magic, the 2017 Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion. But Good Magic had to settle for second in the Run for the Roses when he encountered a buzz saw in Justify.

Yet another plus for Practical Move is Andy Beyer is not picking him to win. Beyer, who has landed on Derma Sotogake, is the first to admit that his top pick through the years in the three Triple Crown races rarely is victorious. I was worried that with Practical Move sporting back-to-back 100 Beyer Speed Figures, he would be Andy Beyer’s Kentucky Derby pick. Thankfully, that’s not the case.

Practical Move is listed at 10-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line. Whatever his price ends up being, no doubt it’s going to be considerably lower than the price I got when I put $200 on him Feb. 12 at 83-1 to win nearly $17,000 in the Kentucky Derby Future Pool.

KINGSBARNS. Ranked No. 2. Post position 6. Morning line 12-1. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

As in the case of Practical Move, I put money on Kingsbarns in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager on Feb. 12. I bet $200 on Kingsbarns at 35-1 to win $7,000. He is a much shorter price on the Kentucky Derby morning line at 12-1.

Kingsbarns is undefeated in three career starts. He’s the only entrant in this year’s Kentucky Derby with a perfect record.

Considering Kingsbarns has won three races at three different tracks by margins of 1 3/4, 7 3/4 and 3 1/2 lengths, we really don’t know how good he is at this point. Maybe he’s a superstar. Until he gets beat, that is a possibility.

It’s also impressive that Kingsbarns not only had the sheer zip to work a quarter-mile in :20 4/5 last year before fetching a final bid of $800,000 at a 2-year-olds in training sale, he had the stamina to win this year’s Grade II Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles.

It’s true that Kingsbarns was allowed to get away with setting a slow early pace in the Louisiana Derby. But he does not need the early lead in order to win. He was victorious in his first two races from off the pace.

It’s not easy to win a career debut going one mile, which Kingsbarns did. He also didn’t have the best of trips in his first race.

Most expect Kingsbarns to race forwardly in the early furlongs this Saturday. Like Practical Move, I think Kingsbarns has a very good chance to be first or second with a furlong left to run. Again, this is extremely important in that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second a furlong out.

Kingsbarns’ sire, Uncle Mo, sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.

One thing going against Kingsbarns is only two horses have ever won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. They were Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. I think Kingsbarns will have to be a special colt in order to become the third horse to achieve this feat. But as I mentioned earlier, until Kingsbarns tastes defeat, there is a possibility he is a superstar.

It is a bit of a concern to me that it’s been musical jockeys for Kingsbarns. With Flavien Prat opting for Angel of Empire in the Kentucky Derby, Jose Ortiz gets the call on Kingsbarns, who was ridden in his three races before this by Luis Saez, Antonio Gallardo and Prat.

Something to keep in mind, though: A jockey does not always make the right decision. While there are a zillion examples of a jockey taking off a horse who then wins, I will cite two that come to mind regarding the Kentucky Derby.

In the 1995 Kentucky Derby, Mike Smith rode Talkin Man instead of Thunder Gulch. Talkin Man finished 12th as the 4-1 favorite, while Thunder Gulch won in a 24-1 upset.

Trainer Horatio Luro asked legendary Bill Shoemaker to ride Northern Dancer in the 1964 Kentucky Derby. Shoemaker’s preference was to ride Hill Rise. Hill Rise finished a close second as the 7-5 Kentucky Derby favorite, while 3-1 Northern Dancer and jockey Bill Hartack won by a neck. Northern Dancer ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:00 flat to set a Churchill Downs track record that stood until Secretariat won the race in 1:59 2/5, establishing a mark that still stands 50 years later.

Speaking of Secretariat, the perception is that the 1973 Triple Crown winner was a dud at stud. Did he fulfill the unrealistic expectations for him as a sire? No. Was he a flop? No, as evidenced by the fact that he sired a female Horse of the Year in Lady’s Secret, a Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner in Risen Star, plus a Travers Stakes track record setter in General Assembly. Secretariat’s daughter Weekend Surprise produced A.P. Indy, the 1992 Horse of the Year who became an extremely successful sire. Secretariat also sired the exceedingly swift Terlingua, who became the dam of super sire Storm Cat.

If Secretariat was such a failure as a sire, then how come his name appears in the pedigree of 22 of the 23 horses entered in this year’s Kentucky Derby, according to Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin? The only one of the 23 without Secretariat in his bloodlines is Derma Sotogake. You even will find Secretariat showing up in the pedigrees of Japan’s Continuar and Mandarin Hero.

TAPIT TRICE. Ranked No. 3. Post position 5. Morning line 5-1. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

I think Tapit Trice will be sent off as the second choice in the betting. As I said Monday morning on Steve Byk’s SiriuxXM radio program At the Races, I actually wouldn’t rule out Tapit Trice giving Forte a run for Kentucky Derby favoritism. In my odds, as I said to Byk, I have Forte at 3-1 and Tapit Trice at 4-1.

Tapit Trice has reeled off four consecutive victories after finishing third when unveiled in a one-mile maiden special weight contest at Aqueduct last Nov. 6.

In his most recent two starts, Tapit Trice rallied to win the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby by two lengths and Grade I Blue Grass Stakes by a neck.

Tapit Trice has been sluggish leaving the gate, which could prove problematic in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. I did like the way the Tapit colt made his move much earlier in the Blue Grass than at Tampa. I also think it’s important that Tapit Trice was a close second with a furlong to go in the Blue Grass. That indicates to me that the $1.3 million auction purchase does have a chance to be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.

I would have preferred that Tapit Trice to have drawn a post position much farther out than post 5. Starting from post 5 could possibly lead to some traffic issues for him with his come-from-behind style.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE. Ranked No. 4. Post position 14. Jockey Flavien Prat. Trainer Brad Cox.

Angel of Empire, like Tapit Trice, has a come-from-behind running style. I like Angel of Empire breaking from post 14 a lot better than Tapit Trice beginning from the 5 hole. I think Prat has a better chance to keep Angel of Empire out of traffic trouble than Saez does aboard Tapit Trice.

Then why do I have Tapit Trice picked third and Angel of Empire fourth? The main reason is Tapit Trice has run faster than Angel of Empire. Tapit Trice reached 99 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale when he won the Blue Grass. Angel of Empire’s top Beyer to date is his 94 when he won the Grade I Arkansas Derby.

I do love Angel of Empire’s Beyer Speed Figure pattern in his last five starts. He recorded a 51, then a 74, then an 85, then an 89, then the aforementioned 94.

Angel of Empire followed in the footsteps of his sire, Classic Empire, as an Arkansas Derby winner. Something else I love about Angel of Empire is the way he swept past rivals on the far turn in the Arkansas Derby to put himself in front by 2 1/2 lengths with a furlong to go en route to a dominating 4 1/4-length victory.

It was back on New Year’s Day when Angel of Empire first appeared on my radar, even though he didn’t win that day. Cox sent out undefeated Victory Formation to prove a punctual 1-5 favorite in the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. While Cox obviously was pleased with Victory Formation’s performance, I noticed how he talked up Angel of Empire, who finished second at 18-1. Cox warned everyone that he felt Angel of Empire would do better when getting an opportunity to go farther.

In Angel of Empire’s next start, he did go farther. Sent away at 13-1, he won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles as a 13-1 shot. Victory Formation finished ninth as the 9-5 favorite.

Among the vanquished in Angel of Empire’s Risen Star was Two Phil’s, who would go on to win the Grade III Jeff Ruby by 5 1/4 lengths.

Proving that his Risen Star was no fluke, Angel of Empire then trounced his foes in the Arkansas Derby.

Angel of Empire’s paternal grandsire is Pioneerof the Nile, who finished second as my top pick in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, which was won by 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird. Pioneerof the Nile would go on to sire American Pharoah, who swept the 2015 Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought.

FORTE. Ranked No. 5. Post position 15. Morning Line 3-1. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer Todd Pletcher.

Can Forte win the Kentucky Derby? Of course he can. After all, he is the 3-1 morning-line favorite.

Forte is a champion. He was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2022. He’s lost just once in seven career starts. He is a four-time Grade I winner. He’s perfect in two starts this year, taking the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes and Grade I Florida Derby.

In my opinion, based on Forte’s excellent record, he is a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite. It is appropriate that he’s been installed as the 3-1 favorite on the morning line crafted by Mike Battaglia, who first made the morning-line odds for the Kentucky Derby all the way back in 1974. In his initial year in the job, Battaglia pegged the coupled entry of Cannonade and Judger as the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the 100th running of the Kentucky Derby. Cannonade, brilliantly ridden by Angel Cordero Jr., won in a record field of 23. Judger finished eighth.

With Forte boasting such an impressive resume, why don’t I have him ranked higher than No. 5? There are two primary reasons. First, his Beyer Speed Figures are going in the wrong direction. Second, I have a major concern as to whether Forte can be first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby.

After Forte’s 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he registered a 98 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth, then slid further down to a 95 Beyer in the Florida Derby.

Forte’s declining pattern piqued my curiosity. I wondered, “Has any Kentucky Derby winner during the Beyer Speed Figure era had a declining pattern in his final three starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, a la Forte?”

The Beyer Speed Figures were first published in Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby past performances in 1992.

Only once from 1992 to the present has a Kentucky Derby winner had a declining Beyer pattern similar to Forte’s. That one horse was 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who like Forte was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion.

Street Sense recorded a 108 Beyer when he won the BC Juvenile by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs in his final start as a 2-year-old. Next, he dropped to a 102 Beyer when he won the Tampa Bay Derby by a nose in his first start at 3. He then declined further to only a 93 Beyer in his nose defeat when second in the Blue Grass Stakes.

After Street Sense’s 93 Beyer in the Blue Grass, he took a giant leap to a 110 Beyer when he won the 2007 Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths.

The fact that only one of the last 31 Kentucky Derby winners went into the race with a declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern similar to Forte’s is, to me, a big red flag for Forte.

I also think it’s a big negative for Forte that he’s been unable to be first or second a furlong out in both of his last two starts. This suggests that he might not be first or second with a furlong left to run in the Kentucky Derby. And if he’s not first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, it greatly reduces his chances of winning insofar as 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong out.

Additionally, while I don’t consider this to be a deal-breaker, the BC Juvenile winner has gone on to capture the Kentucky Derby just twice since the Breeders’ Cup came on the scene in 1984. Those two were 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and 2016 Derby winner Nyquist.

DERMA SOTOGAKE. Ranked No. 6. Post position 17. Morning line 10-1. Jockey Christophe Lemaire. Trainer Hidetaka Otonashi.

To start with, UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake drew post 17 for the Kentucky Derby. According to the Kentucky Derby media guide, going all the way back to when a starting gate was first used in 1930, post 17 is 0 for 43 in the Kentucky Derby.

On top of that, there is the abysmal record by UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish of 18 UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby was fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011.

The best finish by a winner of the UAE Derby was sixth by China Visit in 2000.

Derma Sotogake officially will be carrying 126 pounds in the Kentucky Derby, just like all the other starters.

But the truth is that Derma Sotogake will have to pack a lot more weight than 126 pounds. He will be burdened with more weight than if he were being ridden by a sumo wrestler. That’s because he is Andy Beyer’s pick to win the Kentucky Derby.

As mentioned earlier, Beyer himself readily admits that the record of his top pick in the three Triple Crown events is awful.

In one of the most woeful exhibitions of public handicapping ever seen, Beyer’s top pick in each of the 2015 Triple Crown races was badly outrun.

Before the 2015 Kentucky Derby, I stated in the Louisville Courier-Journal that American Pharoah “reminds me of Seattle Slew” and “just might sweep the Triple Crown.” Did Beyer pick American Pharoah? No, Beyer thought that American Pharoah was overrated.

On Steve Byk’s radio program At the Races that year, Beyer made it clear that he didn’t think that American Pharoah deserved the hype he was getting prior to the Kentucky Derby. Beyer picked Upstart to win. American Pharoah won by one length. Upstart? He was eased and finished 60 1/2 lengths behind American Pharoah.

Firing Line then was Beyer’s top pick in the Preakness. American Pharoah won by seven lengths. Firing Line? He stumbled at the start, was eased and finished 45 lengths behind American Pharoah.

After what happened in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, you might think Beyer finally had learned his lesson and picked American Pharoah to win the Belmont Stakes, right? Nope. Beyer’s top pick was Materiality. American Pharoah won by 5 1/2 lengths to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought. Materiality? He finished last, 22 1/4 lengths behind American Pharoah.

That means that while American Pharoah was running his way into the history books by sweeping the Triple Crown, Beyer’s top pick lost the three races by a combined 127 3/4 lengths.

Despite Derma Sotogake’s post position, the poor record of UAE Derby runners and being Andy Beyer’s top pick, I do believe a Kentucky Derby triumph by him could happen.

Japanese horses have been running big races all over the globe. Not only did Derma Sotogake win the UAE Derby emphatically by 5 1/2 lengths, he led a 1-2-3-4 sweep in the Grade II event by Japanese runners.

Japan’s Mandarin Hero posted a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he came within a whisker of winning the Santa Anita Derby despite having previously raced exclusively at a so-called B track in Japan.

Derma Sotogake is considered to be superior to Mandarin Hero. In light of what a fine race Mandarin Hero ran in defeat in the Santa Anita Derby, it’s perfectly understandable why so many think Derma Sotogake has a huge chance to win the Kentucky Derby.

This year’s UAE Derby and Group I Dubai World Cup for older horses do not have official Beyer Speed Figures. However, Randy Moss of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team has said that Derma Sotogake is estimated to not only have run a 106 or 107 Beyer in the UAE Derby, his figure would have been higher than that of the older Ushba Tesora for his win in the Dubai World Cup.

Derma Sotogake’s final time in the UAE Derby was 1:55.81, making it the second-fastest since the race’s distance was changed to 1,900 meters, or about 1 3/16 miles, in 2010. The fastest time at this distance was Mendelssohn’s 1:55.18 when he won by 18 1/2 lengths in 2018.

Andy Beyer discussed Derma Sotogake when speaking to Byk on his SiriusXM radio program Wednesday (May 3).

“I’m hesitant to give a specific number to Derma Sotogake [for the UAE Derby], because the one year we did that was 2018, when Mendelsson won by a mile,” Beyer said Wednesday. “We’ve got enough data to try to calculate figures and we thought Mendelssohn was a 106. We went public with it. He had the standout figure [in the Kentucky Derby] and lost by about 70 lengths. So, that has chastened me a little bit about making Dubai figures. But I would say that, from everything that we can tell, the UAE Derby [won by Derma Sotogake] was the fastest of all the [Kentucky] Derby prep races.

“Derma Sotogake’s record is exemplary. His Dubai race, if you look at his final time and compare it with the last 10 years of UAE Derbies, it’s like there’s no comparison…Maybe this will be another big UAE Derby figure that loses by 80 lengths, but I can’t really make a case for anybody else in this field that I feel comfortable about.”

It does appear to me that Derma Sotogake is a very talented equine athlete. And like Practical Move and Kingsbarns, Derma Sotogake’s ability to race forwardly early should play well in this year’s Kentucky Derby, which doesn’t seem to have tons of early speed in it.

But can Derma Sotogake overcome his post position, the UAE Derby jinx and, most especially, being Andy Beyer’s choice to win the race?

SKINNER. Ranked No. 7. Post position 9. Morning Line 20-1. Jockey Juan Hernandez. Trainer John Shirreffs.

What makes Skinner look scary to me as a possible Kentucky Derby victor is he’s in the hands of a master horseman who excels at being able to have a horse primed for a big effort on the day of an important event.

Best known as trainer of the great Zenyatta, Shirreffs won the 2005 Kentucky Derby in an upset with Giacomo. I think Skinner might well be better than Giacomo.

Giacomo finished second in the San Felipe, then fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, then peaked on the first Saturday in May to pull off a Kentucky Derby upset. His Beyers in those three races were 93, then 95, then 100.

Skinner finished third in the San Felipe, then a much closer third in the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyers in those two races were 94, then 99.

If Skinner’s Beyer trend continues, he stands a good chance to record a triple-digit Beyer in the Kentucky Derby. That makes him a big threat at what should be a very nice price, though probably nowhere close to Giacomo’s Kentucky Derby odds of 50-1. Skinner likely will end up being somewhere around his 20-1 odds on the morning line.

TWO PHIL’S. Ranked No. 8. Post position 3. Morning line 12-1. Jockey Jareth Loveberry. Trainer Larry Rivelli.

The 101 Beyer Speed Figure that Two Phil’s produced in the Grade III Jeff Ruby is the highest official Beyer Speed Figure recorded by any of the entrants in this year’s Kentucky Derby. As noted earlier, Derma Sotogake has been credited with an unofficial Beyer of 106 or 107 by Randy Moss of the Beyer-making team.

The rub is that the 101 Beyer by Two Phil’s came on a synthetic surface and the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt. Did Two Phil’s look so terrific and get that 101 Beyer in the Jeff Ruby because of the synthetic surface?

The main reason I don’t have Two Phil’s ranked higher than No. 8 is the top Beyer that he’s recorded on dirt is only an 88.

I admit to holding a grudge against Two Phil’s after he let me down as my top pick for Xpressbet.com in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. He loomed menacingly in upper stretch, then lacked the needed late punch and finished third to Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder. It’s hard for me to endorse Two Phil’s going 1 1/4 miles off that performance on dirt at 1 1/8 miles.

But there is a possibility that Two Phil’s came up with such a sparkling performance in the Jeff Ruby because he is blossoming at this time of the year, a boy turning into a man. A 3-year-old sometimes does that at this time of the year, such as Charismatic in 1999.

VERIFYING. Ranked No. 9. Post position 2. Morning line 15-1. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer Brad Cox.

Right off the bat, I like Veryifying’s pilot. I am a big fan of Gaffalione. I think he is tremendous.

Largely because of Verifying’s pedigree, I have had my eye on him ever since he won a six-furlong maiden special weight race when unveiled at Saratoga last summer.

Verifying, whose sire is 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, is a half-brother to Midnight Bisou, who was voted a 2019 Eclipse Award as champion older female dirt champion.

In his first 2023 start, Verifying won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming contest at Oaklawn by 5 1/4 lengths. But he then finished fourth in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel. I think a line can be drawn through that race due to the sloppy track and a trip that wasn’t ideal.

When Verifying was back on dry land in the Grade I Blue Grass, he rebounded and finished second. At the end of a fierce battle with Tapit Trice in the final furlong, Verifying lost the Blue Grass by only a neck.

A lot of people like Tapit Trice, who is the 5-1 second choice on the Kentucky Derby morning line at 5-1, whereas Verifying is a much better price at 15-1. That 15-1 price seemingly is good value in view of the fact that the two colts finished so close together in the Blue Grass.

DISARM. Ranked No. 10. Post position 11. Morning Line 30-1. Jockey Joel Rosario. Trainer Steve Asmussen.

Asmussen has won more races in North America racing history than any other trainer (10,082 through May 2), but the Hall of Famer is 0 for 24 in the Kentucky Derby.

It’s widely acknowledged that Asmussen was unlucky not to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby. He sent out Epicenter to finish second as the 4-1 favorite to 80-1 Rich Strike.

Rich Strike is 0 for 5 since the Kentucky Derby. Epicenter would go on to win the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes and Grade I Travers Stakes en route to being voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.

Gun Runner, Disarm’s sire, finished third to Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Gun Runner would go on to be voted 2017 Horse of the Year following a string of Grade I wins in the Stephen Foster Handicap, Whitney Stakes, Woodward Stakes and BC Classic.

Disarm is winless in three starts this year. But a closer look at the circumstances of those races suggests he should not be cavalierly dismissed in the Kentucky Derby.

In Disarm’s 2023 debut, he was returning from a long layoff and pretty much had no chance to catch a loose-on-the-early-lead Two Eagles River.

Next, Disarm actually did well to finish second in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby in that he had just one 2023 race under his belt and again he pretty much had no chance to catch a loose-on-the-early-lead Kingsbarns.

Disarm then started in the Grade III Lexington Stakes. At first glance, that seemed to be a disappointing performance. But the reason he was in the race was to just finish third or better, which would earn him sufficient points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Thus, while Disarm did not finish first or second in the Lexington, the goal for him was achieved in that he finished third.

The way Disarm has looked in his training since the Lexington indicates to me that he is live in the Kentucky Derby as a 30-1 longshot on the morning line.

By the way, I think the best 3-year-old colt in the Asmussen barn might well be running in the first race on the Kentucky Derby card rather than Disarm. That’s Extra Anejo, who I remain sky high on.

Extra Anejo looked awesome when he won his career debut by 9 1/2 lengths at Keeneland last Oct. 13. As noted in his past performance line for that race, he “galloped.” Unfortunately, the $1.35 million auction purchase subsequently was sidelined. He reportedly had a small hind ankle chip that required surgery.

In Saturday’s first race at Churchill Downs, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance/optional claiming affair, Extra Anejo breaks from the rail as the 6-5 morning-line favorite. After Extra Anejo’s marvelous five-furlong drill in :59 at Churchill last Sunday (April 30), an usually fast time for an Asmussen trainee, it appears it’s all systems go for the Into Mischief colt off the bench.

However, it looks like Extra Anejo does have a tough foe in Federal Judge, who zipped six furlongs at Oaklawn Park on April 1 in 1:09.87 to win a maiden race by 4 1/2 lengths at first asking. He recorded a snazzy 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Rudy Brisset trains the 3-year-old colt, a son of the exceptionally swift Army Mule.

Federal Judge is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line in Saturday’s race.

ONE MORE HORSE TO CONSIDER

Confidence Game didn’t quite crack my Top 10, but I think he is intriguing. Granted, he’s coming off a 10-week layoff. But I have much respect for his trainer, Keith Desormeaux, who finished second with Exaggerator when Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

This will be Confidence Game’s first start since he splashed home to a one-length victory in the Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25. Not long after that race, Desormeaux said that he might train the Candy Ride colt up to the Kentucky Derby.

I think it helps Confidence Game that he figures to be racing forwardly early Saturday for jockey James Graham. Also, Confidence Game seems to have trained splendidly for this assignment, including a one-mile stamina-building workout in 1:38.20 at Churchill Downs on April 14, followed by a five-furlong bullet drill in :59.00 beneath the Twin Spires on April 29.

While Confidence Game sold for a mere $25,000 at public auction, keep in mind his dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister Zenyatta, one of the greatest female Thoroughbreds of all time. In 2009, Zenyatta became the first -- and still only -- filly or mare to win the BC Classic. She was 19-0 before losing her career finale by a head when runner-up to Blame in the 2010 BC Classic.

Watch out for Confidence Game, who is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line.

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM

I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) back in 1999. Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.

Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby were quite popular for many years. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. But when many of the “Derby rules” were broken through the years, their popularity waned.

I think it’s the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”

A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Thus, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, the Derby Strikes System was unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby returned to its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.

The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.

The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.

History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.

The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).

Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.

SUN THUNDER AND ROCKET CAN TO ADD BLINKERS

Both Sun Thunder and Rocket Can are listed to have blinkers added to their equipment for the Kentucky Derby. Neither colt has raced with blinkers previously.

Category 6 in my Derby Strikes System has to do with blinkers. A horse gets a strike if blinkers are added or removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby. The reason for this strike is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer generally would not be tinkering with equipment so late in the game. Going all the way back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.

Sun Thunder and Rocket Can do not get a strike for adding blinkers in the Kentucky Derby. Why? Because the Derby Strikes System is designed to determine a horse’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby based on his or her races BEFORE the Kentucky Derby.

While Sun Thunder and Rocket Can are listed to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby and it’s probably going to happen, that’s not set in stone. There are countless examples of a horse having an equipment change of blinkers on or off listed in the past performances, yet it doesn’t happen.

Even though Sun Thunder and Rocket Can don’t get a strike for adding blinkers Saturday, the principle is the same in that if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, a trainer typically would not be tinkering with the horse’s equipment so late in the game.

Sun Thunder officially has two strikes, while Rocket Can officially has one strike.

If Sun Thunder and Rocket Can do in fact add blinkers in the Kentucky Derby, I will consider it being an unofficial strike for them both.

The strikes for the Kentucky Derby entrants are listed below:

ZERO STRIKES

Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake
Hit Show
Practical Move
Tapit Trice

ONE STRIKE

Confidence Game (Category 5)
Forte (Category 3)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Lord Miles (Category 3)
Raise Cain (Category 5)
Reincarnate (Category 4)
Rocket Can (Category 5)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)

TWO STRIKES

Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4)
Disarm (Categories 2 and 3)
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
Mandarin Hero (Categories 1 and 2)
Skinner (Categories 2 and 3)
Sun Thunder (Categories 2 and 3)
Verifying (Categories 2 and 4)

THREE STRIKES

Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7)

WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973

Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.

The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:

2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money

**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th

STRIKES FOR 1973 KENTUCKY DERBY STARTERS

With this year’s Kentucky Derby attracting additional attention because of it being the 50th anniversary of Secretariat, the strikes in my Derby Strikes System for each of the 13 runners in that renewal are listed below:

ONE OR ZERO STRIKES

Angle Light (0 strikes)
Our Native (1 strike, Category 4)
Restless Jet (1 strike, Category 1)
Royal and Regal (1 strike, Category 4)
Secretariat (0 strikes)
Sham (0 strikes)
Twice a Prince (1 strike, Category 7)

TWO STRIKES
My Gallant (Categories 3 and 4)
Shecky Greene (Categories 4 and 5)

THREE STRIKES
Forego (Categories 2, 7 and 8)
Gold Bag (Categories 2, 4 and 5)
Navajo (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Warbucks (Categories 1, 2 and 3)

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 286 Elite Power (24)
2. 195 Proxy (3)
3. 192 Art Collector (4)
4. 168 Clairiere
5. 138 West Will Power
6. 131 Stilleto Boy
7. 111 Last Samurai
8. 110 Defunded
9. 88 Goodnight Olive
10. 79 Secret Oath

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 321 Forte (28)
2. 269 Tapit Trice (2)
3. 245 Angel of Empire
4. 244 Practical Move (1)
5. 173 Kingsbarns (1)
6. 106 Derma Sotogake (1)
7. 83 Verifying
8. 77 Two Phil’s
9. 65 Mage
10. 64 Confidence Game

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:35 AM

Race of the Week: $1 Million Turf Classic at Churchill Downs

May 3, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
Saturday's fabled Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs immediately follows the traditional lead-in, the Grade 1 Turf Classic. By immediately, of course, we mean 90 minutes later on this marathon, 10-hour, 14-race bonanza of great racing.

But before you saddle up with your Kentucky Derby play for this year, let's get the cash in the Turf Classic. For more Kentucky Derby analysis, visit www.1st.com/guide for the 1/ST BET Kentucky Derby Wager Guide.

Horseplayers utilizing the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet betting platforms will enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on every race Friday and Saturday from Churchill Downs if/when their win bet finishes second or third.

Field Depth:
Defending champ SANTIN is the only Grade 1 winner in the lineup. UP TO THE MARK and BYE BYE MELVIN are Grade 1-placed. MASTER PIECE, HONG KONG HARRY and SPOOKY CHANNEL have won at the Grade 2 level. SANTIN, BYE BYE MELVIN and MASTER PIECE have consistently held the strongest company lines in this race.

Pace:
Rail-drawn OCEAN ATLANTIQUE, synthetic specialist WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST and widest-drawn BYE BYE MELVIN should be attending a solid pace for the 1-1/8 miles trip. STEADY ON won't be far off of it as a pressing miler.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-OCEAN ATLANTIQUE: Taken out of his speed game in the Kentucky Cup Classic with a troubled start, so a draw a line through his last. The Turfway synthetic form ourperformed expectations on grass at the recent Keeneland meet. You could do worse than Mike Maker at a price with rail speed in a major Kentucky turf route. Suspicion this American Pharoah gelding might put a scare into them before the closers come calling.

2-MASTER PIECE: At age 7, would join 3 others, including Wise Dan, as the oldest Turf Classic winners. Late-running nibbler rarely gets home in time, winning just 1 of his last 10. Respect the consistent form for a minor share, as well as international rider Christophe Lemaire, who is in town to ride Derma Sotogake in the Kentucky Derby. L

3-WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST: Admire horses who like to win races, 7-for-19 lifetime and 3 scores in the last 4. REgardless of surface, he seems to bring a consistent effort, though he seems best on synthetics. Will have to contend with Ocean Atlantique for early command. John Velazquez piloted Wise Dan to victory in this race in 2014.

4-STEADY ON: First or second in 6 of his last 7 races, this will be the class test for the son of 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof The Nile. Figures to get a good trip just off the speed under jockey Jose Ortiz, who won this race in 2018 aboard Yoshida. Trainer Todd Pletcher's 2 wins in this race came with English Channel (2006) and Colonel Liam (2021). Owner-trainer tandem here same as Kentucky Derby chalk Forte, so it could be a heck of an afternoon.

5-UP TO THE MARK: Third in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland last time out behind a trail-blazing performance by Chez Pierre ... one of the best I've seen on that turf course. Should handle the extra distance on performance and pedigree. Irad Ortiz Jr. looks for a third Turf Classic win, following Bricks and Mortar (2019) and Colonel Liam (2021), the latter also for trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher's 2 wins in this race came with English Channel (2006) and Colonel Liam (2021).

6-EARLS ROCK: Has split 4 decisions since returning from a 1-1/2 year layoff last November, all in Southern California. Trainer Phil D'Amato is the best in the west in terms of grass horses and will also bring Hong Kong Harry to the fight. The 9-furlong distance might be stretching this one beyond his best. Preference to the 'other' runner for D'Amato.

7-HONG KONG HARRY: SoCal turf aces Phil D'Amato and Flavien Prat are back paired again with a change in venue. Solid finisher has been favored in 9 of his last 10 starts, but may not have the same respect in this spot. Certainly won't be a big price, but could be a good time to buy up against Pletcher & Company. Jockey Prat won this race in 2021 aboard Domestic Spending. The one to fear late.

8-SANTIN: Since its 1987 inaugural, 3 horses have won the Turf Classic back-to-back (Einstein, Wise Dan and Divisidero) and this 5YO will try to add his name to the select list. He added the Grade 1 Arlington Million win to his resume later in 2022 at Churchill, but that turf course was in a total overhaul at the time and nothing like what we have this spring. Couldn't finish with Hong Kong Harry when sent west to Del Mar for the Seabiscuit, but now gets the home game while training Brendan Walsh is coming off the best Keeneland meet of his career. Should be trending back into form.

9-SPOOKY CHANNEL: The 8YO could become the oldest Turf Classic winner, but there's a lot of tread still on the tires with "only" 28 starts at his advance age. He's won 13 of them, including the Grade 2 Muniz on Fair Grounds' Louisiana Derby Day card. Has had no pace help whatsoever in 3 starts since returning from a year away and yet continues to fire. He'll get a much better set-up Saturday.

10-BYE BYE MELVIN: Off since November, he's no stranger to layoffs, having missed 14 months in 2021-'22. Difficult post for his forward style given there's speed to the inside. Longtime pilot John Velazquez changes seats to ride Wolfie's Dynaghost. His last stakes win was the 2020 Saranac at Saratoga, so we'll take a pass Saturday.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SPOOKY CHANNEL gets a great set-up and has finished within a length at the wire in 6 straight starts.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
OCEAN ATLANTIQUE is the most intriguing of the early pace players to hang around for a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$20 exacta part-wheel SPOOKY CHANNEL over HONG KONG HARRY, UP TO THE MARK and STEADY ON ($60). $40 daily double SPOOKY CHANNEL to FORTE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:35 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#4 Hidden Path	He showed some speed and stayed on well in the Gulfstream debut try, and he should be in line for another good trip right near the top in a spot without much proven early speed. Think he's tough with any step forward.
#1 He's Got Swagger	He was a bit flat in that last one, but that came in a good spot and a fast race, and his baseline effort seems competitive with this group. Might get a cozy run from the fence.
#10 Curlins Incharge	Think he has a little appeal at a mid-range price as he gets back on the turf, and those two- and three-back tries aren't all that far off what it might take here. Most useful underneath?
Race Summary	Hidden Path goes second out off a useful debut run, and any reasonable second-out improvement makes him a handful from close range. Willing to let my connected plays hit or miss with just that guy.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#1 Bagboss	He's quick enough to get in the mix early from the fence, and he's down in class off the bench after earning an unsuccessful trip into Grade I company at Del Mar last summer. He has been very good here in the past and wouldn't be any surprise to land this fresh.
#7 Bango	He makes a lot of sense while getting back over his favorite footing where he has landed nine of his 11 career wins, and I think he'll turn in a much better effort than he did in this spot last year when a distant fourth.
#2 Miles Ahead	I'm still not totally sure what to do with him, as he has proven capable of the types of efforts needed to land this, but he hasn't been all that tenacious in the early and middle parts of his recent races, and I wouldn't want to sign on here at too short a price.
Race Summary	Bagboss returns after being last seen in a Grade I spot in California, and I think he's fast enough to maybe find a pretty good run from the rail in a race without a ton of other early speed.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#2 Annapolis	He has a big class edge on most of these out of the Breeders' Cup try last year, and he's got the right style to find a good spot while not getting caught up in the pace with a few committed forward players lined up. Obviously he's got bigger targets this year, but I think he probably lands this.
#10 English Bee	His form is sort of underwhelming over the last year, but his even-running style might play well to get him in a good spot turning for home here. Not sure he can outkick them all from there, but I think he's a price player for a piece.
#5 Set Piece	He's another with a pretty good bit of class to him, but I worry that he'll be along too late to land this one. That said, a few pace players signed on might set things up for a late rally.
Race Summary	Annapolis will take some deserving action in here off the Breeders' Cup layoff, but he has fired fresh before and should probably be able to handle these to kick off his 4-year-old campaign.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:35 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#4 ALLIGATOR ARMS (5-1)	Will try to reach out and carry his speed farther off improved second start.
#2 BAR DOWN EXPRESS (8-1)	Returns from layoff as gelding for hot barn, gets in light-weighted.
#3 DIALER (5-2)	Found blinkers and class drop of little help, drops again for Ness.
Race Summary	ALLIGATOR ARMS dueled with the 5-2 second choice before the trip-sitting favorite passed by at 6F. He steps up in class but can use his speed well in this spot if he can handle the extra furlong. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#5 MISS YOU AJAX (6-1)	Good rally in 6F sprint, returns to maiden-breaking distance and track.
#2 PATRIOTIC PARTY (5-1)	Burned money while descending through the ranks in last three starts.
#10 NOTIMELIKEPRESENT (4-1)	Controlling speed on the outside for 26-percent ‘repeat’ barn.
Race Summary	MISS YOU AJAX raced close-up and ‘finished well’ behind the two favorites in an improved try at Parx. He romped to a maiden victory at this distance at Laurel Park and gets a big weight break from his rivals today. Play a 5-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#1 BORRACHO (5-2)	Game try against hard-hitting winner at 6F off Ness claim.
#3 GOING TO THE LEAD (7-2)	Plays to a steady beat, projects ideal trip, use in all gimmicks.
#4 WHERE PARADISE LAY (9-2)	Big numbers against quality company at Tampa Bay Downs.
Race Summary	BORRACHO dueled outside of Grade III winner Wondrwherecraigis (8-16, $499k) through fast fractions, from mid-turn to mid-stretch. He was passed late by the second favorite for the place spot but held third. Bet to win and place on the cutback to 5-1/2F.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:36 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - May 4

May. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	5	Princesa Celina	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	3	Slainte Mhath	D Davis
SHOW	3-1	1	Round the Town	P Lopez
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Leslie`s Loot	J Gomez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Just the Oaks	R Maragh

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #2 $35,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Crowding Out	T McCarthy
PLACE	2-1	4	Secret Time [GER]	K Carmouche
SHOW	6-1	1	Brisky Frolic	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Lola Flo	J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Just a Nyquist	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Icy Stare Down	J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

RACE #3 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:06 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 HAMMERIN AAMER

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Hammerin Aamer	T McCarthy
PLACE	3-1	1A	Durkins Call	R Silvera
SHOW	5-2	2	Caribbean [AUS]	J Ortiz
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Gentleman Joe	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	1	Grumps Little Tots	L O Bailey
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Dark Storm	M Olver

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #4 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:38 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 SALS DREAM GIRL

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Sals Dream Girl	K Carmouche
PLACE	3-1	7	Collaboration	D Davis
SHOW	2-1	3	Smokie Eyes	J Ortiz
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Saratoga Gaze	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Waterville	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	8-5	9	Amandas Folly	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #5 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	8	Inflation Adjusted	K Carmouche
PLACE	3-5	9	Ouster	D Davis
SHOW	5-2	4	Al`s Rocket	J Ortiz
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Q F Seventy Five	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Not Phar Now	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Breakwater	R Silvera

* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX

RACE #6 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	She Caught My Eye	J Ortiz
PLACE	9-2	8	Carbon	R Silvera
SHOW	7-2	6	Maggie T	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	7	Wishing On a Star	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Icy Reply	G Huayas
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Vodkatini	E Cancel

* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX

RACE #7 $85,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 SWEET MYSTERY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Sweet Mystery	T McCarthy
PLACE	7-2	1	Bustin Bay	D Davis
SHOW	6-1	4	Dufresne	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	5-1	2	My First Love	E Cancel

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Sunset Louise	J Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Mia Bea Star	J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #8 $100,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:57 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	5	Turn of Events	K Carmouche
PLACE	6-1	2	Doctor Jeff	M Franco
SHOW	6-1	4	Runningwscissors	P Lopez
WILD CARD	5-2	10	H P Moon	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Big Package	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Fluid Situation	J Vargas Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/4/10 BOX

RACE #9 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	1	Voleuse	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	9	Snowy Evening	J Vargas Jr.
SHOW	8-1	8	Cerretta	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Lakeside Getaway	M Sanchez

ALTERNATE 1	6-5	1A	Loon Cry	J Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Ace Up Her Sleeve	E Cancel

* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/9 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:36 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 4

May. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 LUCY JANE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Lucy Jane	J Loveberry
PLACE	4-1	6	Condiment Girl	C Landeros
SHOW	5-1	7	War Ensign	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Total Discretion	Y Navas

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Sonnyneedsmoney	A Achard
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	3	Tattered Heart	J Graham

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX

RACE #2 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 7 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Scarlet Stripe	T Gaffalione
PLACE	3-1	6	Brittle and Yoo	R Bejarano
SHOW	2-1	3	Academic Honor	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Beauxs Artes	L Saez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Fine Cotton	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Frango Electrico	E Morales

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #3 $52,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	10-1	7	Sand Mountain	C Hughes
PLACE	8-5	8	Concrete Glory	T Gaffalione
SHOW	7-5	3	Caramel Chip	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Tetsu	J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	My Man Flintstone	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Masai Man	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX

RACE #4 $200,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	2	Youalmosthadme	T Gaffalione
PLACE	1-1	1	Hibernacle	J Rosario
SHOW	15-1	6	Whos Snow Trouble	L Saez
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Lil Anthony	R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Lous Legacy	Y L Correa
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Tranche	E A Maldonado

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:52 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	4	Hidden Path	L Saez
PLACE	4-1	1	Hes Got Swagger	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	7-2	9	Decanted	F Prat
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Curlins Incharge	C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	13	Mo Saturdays	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Kigali	F Geroux

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/9/10 BOX

RACE #6 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:27 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 RUN CLASSIC

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	7	Run Classic	R Gutierrez
PLACE	3-1	2	Strava	F Prat
SHOW	9-2	3	Chasing Time	J Rosario
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Spankster	T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Double Crown	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	1	Radical Right	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #7 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:02 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Valiant Praise	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	7-2	8	Kiki Krazy	D Cohen
SHOW	3-1	11	Fearless Kristie	L Saez
WILD CARD	8-1	13	Crimaldi	T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Good Tohave Around	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Allinthecall	J Graham

* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX, 11-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/11 BOX, 8/11/13 BOX

RACE #8 $30,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:37 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 MORNING CUP

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Morning Cup	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	12-1	7	Lend It Tewmey	C Miller
SHOW	3-1	2	Fight Fiercely	L Saez
WILD CARD	9-2	10	Group Hug	R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	13	Treaty	J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	8	Undismayed	W A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX

RACE #9 $175,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:11 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	7	Bango	T Gaffalione
PLACE	5-2	2	Miles Ahead	J Talamo
SHOW	6-1	1	Bagboss	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Surveillance	J Graham

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Willtorun	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Pirate Rick	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	Set Piece	F Geroux
PLACE	7-5	3	Annapolis	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	15-1	4	Stitched	J Rosario
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Grays Fable	J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	10	English Bee	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	9	Sky and Sand	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #11 $25,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Dark Timber	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	10-1	8	Race Driver	R Gutierrez
SHOW	8-1	10	All Eyes West	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Legal Deal	L Saez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Emerald Express	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	9	Crime Spree	E Morales

* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/10 BOX, 7/8/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:37 AM

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - May 4

May. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $30,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	3	West Side Girl	C A Torres
PLACE	5-1	7	Hoping for a Ring	F Arrieta
SHOW	7-2	8	Put a Bow On It	R Zimmerman
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Mumblebee	L A Fuentes

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Elegance N Tonic	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Emityaaz	W De La Cruz

* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX

RACE #2 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:57 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	8	Rowdy Daisy	K J Asmussen
PLACE	4-1	5	The X Factor	I Castillo
SHOW	8-1	6	Lovely Joyce	M Garcia
WILD CARD	20-1	12	Lunch Lady	G Saez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Be Bo	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	11	Blue Cowgirl	E Medellin

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 5/6/12 BOX

RACE #3 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:28 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 AMERICAN BAND

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	3	American Band	K J Asmussen
PLACE	9-5	1A	Hail Columbia	C J Hernandez
SHOW	5-2	8	Whiskey Blue	C A Torres
WILD CARD	20-1	2	Queenies Way	W De La Cruz

ALTERNATE 1	9-5	1	Lanterns Candy	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Essential Bella	L A Fuentes

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX

RACE #4 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	8	Mystic Pleasure	C J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	5	Vow	I Castillo
SHOW	5-1	6	Greek Heiress	E Medellin
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Marys Boon	E Gallardo

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	4	Tyrona	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Chanisa	C A Torres

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #5 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #13 KITIARA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	13	Kitiara	T Wales
PLACE	7-2	7	Betty Jo	K J Asmussen
SHOW	3-1	6	Wild Rosey	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	5-1	10	Hamazing Debate	J K Court

ALTERNATE 1	30-1	4	Dancin N Thepulpit	K Harr
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	K Js Pistol Annie	C Bailey

* EXACTA: 13-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/13 BOX, 6/7/10 BOX

RACE #6 $35,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	Alexandros	W De La Cruz
PLACE	8-1	1	Wobberjod	L S Quinonez
SHOW	2-1	3	Mrs. Beans	I Castillo
WILD CARD	5-2	4	High Cruise	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	9	One for Richie	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Lookin for Loki	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #7 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	5	Black Powder	K J Asmussen
PLACE	9-2	8	Recker Point	M Murrill
SHOW	5-1	11	Heroic Move	C J Hernandez
WILD CARD	7-2	7	El Tomate	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Abeliefinthislivin	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Silver Heist	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/11 BOX, 7/8/11 BOX

RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	9	Kantex	C J Hernandez
PLACE	7-2	11	Summer Shoes	C Bailey
SHOW	3-1	3	Kaboom Baby	L S Quinonez
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Connie K	M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Bennykayandsuzytoo	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Sulwe	W De La Cruz

* EXACTA: 9-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/11 BOX, 3/4/11 BOX

RACE #9 $30,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:53 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 DONT FORGET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	7	Dont Forget	C A Torres
PLACE	9-2	6	Fort Peck	F Arrieta
SHOW	5-1	1	Chapel Barn	M Garcia
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Wartime Hero	W De La Cruz

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	9	Home Run Trick	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Flatout Winner	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:37 AM

Belmont Park Hotlist - May 4

May. 03, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3^rd race [Clm 20000, 1 1/16 mi] – (3) Hammerin Aamer (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1 and rallied to finish third. This 9-year-old continues to run well and brings his great record back to Belmont Park where he has four of his career 13 victories. (2) Caribbean won at this claiming level in February and was claimed for $12,500 last month by Linda Rice who was the leading trainer at the just concluded Aqueduct meeting. (5) Gentleman Joe drops down from his recent second-place finishes for a $32,000 tag. (1A) Durkin’s Call drops down to this $20,000 level after racing in tougher spots most of the time at the Big A.
6^th race [Alw 50000s, 1 mi] – (7) Wishing On a Star (A) bobbled at the start of her last race, then was very rank, but still managed to run second after setting the pace. (5) She Caught My Eye was claimed from an open-length win in a $14,000 claimer by Linda Rice who moved her up to run third behind the top choice last month. (1) Vodkatini ran in New York in her last two starts with a second at this starter allowance level. (6) Maggie T was claimed in February for $50,000 by Linda Rice and then had a win and a second in starter allowances.
7^th race [NY, OC 45k/N2X, 1 mi] – (1) Bustin Bay was claimed from a victory at this level by Linda Rice and comes back a month later. (7) B B’s Busted was claimed for $35,000 three months ago when he was second at Parx Racing. (3) Sunset Louise was last seen in a state-bred stakes race at Aqueduct in December after a pair of strong allowance performances at the mile distance. (2) My First Love won a first-level allowance for NY-breds three weeks ago by almost six lengths.
9^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (1A) Loon Cry moved from dirt to turf in her second career start last month at Aqueduct and rallied to just miss the win by a neck while running far ahead of the rest of the field. (9) Snowy Evening made his first start on the turf after a dirt debut and ran second in an almost identical performance as the top choice in what was actually the second division of the race. (7) Mz Big Bucks had a promising debut on the turf when she was fourth in the race with Loon Cry. (1) Voleuse began her career with two good starts on the turf last spring and then raced on the main track the rest of the year. Now after the winter off she moves back to the grass.
Best bets: Hammerin Aamer (3^rd); Loon Cry (9^th). Best value: Wishing On a Star (6^th); Bustin Bay (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(3)	Hammerin Aamer	C on 4/14	3	He was second after getting bet down and now drops a notch.
(7)	Wishing On a Star	A on 4/13	6	She bobbled at the start, then was very rank, and rallied for second.
(1A)	Loon Cry	A on 4/8	9	Second by a neck in 2023 debut and was well ahead of the others.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:37 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park

PURCHASE

Sam Houston Race Park - Race 4	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 4-5) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $23,500 • Post: 7:36P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ROCK SOLID STONES: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MR TECO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Pow er Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. STOLEN JEANS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has a Trac kMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
1	ROCK SOLID STONES	1/1	7/2
4	MR TECO	3/1	4/1
7	STOLEN JEANS	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ROCK SOLID STONES	1	1/1	Average	91	91	5.5	0.0	0.0
2	ICONE CORONA	2	20/1	Average	66	64	4.6	0.0	0.0
3	MO DELIRIO	3	12/1	Slow	88	68	7.0	0.0	0.0
4	MR TECO	4	3/1	Slow	96	88	6.7	0.0	0.0
5	FABULOUS ROYALE	5	10/1	Fast	76	74	3.3	0.0	0.0
6	SHEZA REAL ZOOMER	6	8/1	Slow	78	75	7.2	0.0	0.0
7	STOLEN JEANS	7	9/2	Fast	84	70	2.8	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont ParkPURCHASE

Belmont Park - Race 8	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 8 &9
Optional Claiming $62,500 • 6 Furlongs • Inner Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 4:57P
(RAIL AT 35 FEET). INNER TURF (UP TO $17,400 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500 (ALLOWANCE HORSES PREFERRED)(1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TURN OF EVENTS: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its fi rst and/or second starts after a long layoff. RUNNINGWSCISSORS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. SEVEN SCENTS: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or se cond starts after a long layoff. FLUID SITUATION: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MARVALOUS MIKE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce.
5	TURN OF EVENTS	5/1	6/1
4	RUNNINGWSCISSORS	6/1	6/1
1	SEVEN SCENTS	8/1	7/1
6	FLUID SITUATION	6/1	7/1
8	MARVALOUS MIKE	15/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	FLUID SITUATION	6	6/1	Front-runner	102	103	108.1	96.7	84.2
2	DOCTOR JEFF	1	6/1	Front-runner	89	91	100.5	91.0	72.0
10	H P MOON	10	5/2	Front-runner	93	89	98.7	85.7	71.2
3	MOMOS	2	15/1	Front-runner	100	92	92.0	89.8	79.3
1A	EMERALD FOREST	12	8/1	Front-runner	101	102	77.0	93.8	82.3
8	MARVALOUS MIKE	8	15/1	Stalker	99	94	92.0	95.7	82.7
5	TURN OF EVENTS	5	5/1	Stalker	106	102	86.7	100.3	91.3
9	GROOMS ALL BIZNESS	9	9/2	Stalker	95	95	77.8	86.8	69.3
1	SEVEN SCENTS	3	8/1	Stalker	107	98	77.4	97.2	91.2
4	RUNNINGWSCISSORS	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	101	97	80.0	95.2	87.2
7	BIG PACKAGE	7	3/1	Trailer	104	103	59.4	92.6	82.6
11	TWENTY FOUR MAMBA	11	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	98	93	73.6	90.2	72.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 49

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 THROUGH THE CRACKS 4/1
# 6 MINT JULIUS 8/5
# 7 ABBY DABBY 9/5

I've got to go with THROUGH THE CRACKS. The average class figure alone makes this entrant a solid choice. MINT JULIUS - Has been running quite well lately and should be up near the lead early on. Earning some nice paychecks in dirt sprint contests. ABBY DABBY - This conditioner has the strongest ROI in this field with entries running at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 4:45pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#6 HER GOLD MINE (ML=8/1)

HER GOLD MINE - Look at this mare's PP lines. With each race she keeps getting closer. When Roman and Meraz team up on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +58. I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a strong race within the last month or so. Recent speed ratings show strong pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ON A TOUR (ML=8/5), #1 NO NANNETTE NO (ML=5/2), #5 COUGER (ML=5/1),

ON A TOUR - This mare finished outside the top 3 on Feb 15th and wasn't close last out either. When examining today's class rating, she will have to earn a better speed fig than last time around the track to vie in this dirt route. NO NANNETTE NO - Equibase speed figures tell a story of lessening condition. COUGER - If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most of the time. When looking at today's class figure, she will have to garner a much better rating than last out to battle in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 HER GOLD MINE on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 58

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 4. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 WHO U GONNA CALL 7/5
# 3 WICKED T 12/1
# 6 TEACHER DRAMA 12/1

WHO U GONNA CALL looks to be a respectable contender. The class fig of today's race is much lower than her last race. The average Equibase class rating of 66 makes this entrant difficult to beat. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figs (66 average) at today's distance and surface recently. WICKED T - Could best this field here, showing decent figures of late. TEACHER DRAMA - Has longshot possibilities and could prove victorious at a juicy mutuel. Keep this mare in your exotics as Salgado has given backers some double digit dividends.