Saturday 4/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lone Star Park Tip Sheet - April 15

Apr. 14, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Caymans Cobra	A Rodriguez
PLACE	9-5	2	Lab Rat	F Wethey Jr.
SHOW	5-2	6	Frank the Mayor	E Valdez-Jiminez
WILD CARD	3-1	1	Hot Stove League	L D Goncalves
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Daahers Bully	R Guerra
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Drum and Bass	G Pivaral
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #2 $33,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	6	Hard Gold	R Diaz
PLACE	5-2	1	Tiz Bodhi Boy	F Wethey Jr.
SHOW	7-2	7	Plain Tap Water	E Valdez-Jiminez
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Mr. Valentino	W Hamilton
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Hyperion North	R Guerra
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Xander S	G Mora
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $33,500 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Texas Ascot Queen	R Diaz
PLACE	15-1	7	Summer Cat	S Barandela
SHOW	2-1	6	Del Mar Drama	S Elliott
WILD CARD	5-2	2	Downtown Abby	J L Alvarez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Mariahs Candy	G Mora
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Total Malice	R Guerra
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $7,500 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:59 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 STARTECA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Starteca	J L Alvarez
PLACE	3-1	8	Sheza Hunk	S Elliott
SHOW	5-1	7	Phunk	A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Abigail Alden	R Guerra
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Queens Holiday	F Wethey Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Lumberjack Leslie	E Valdez-Jiminez
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
RACE #5 $33,500 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:27 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Noise Complaint	J L Alvarez
PLACE	7-2	4	My Boy Bling	F J Manrrique
SHOW	3-1	6	Guitar Boy	L D Goncalves
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Poseidons Wave	W Hamilton
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Dough Boy	G Mora
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Nightwind	F Wethey Jr.
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #6 $34,500 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Robo	S Barandela
PLACE	7-2	6	Fredstwirlincandy	E Valdez-Jiminez
SHOW	5-1	8	Malibu S S	R Guerra
WILD CARD	9-2	10	Whiskey Not Wine	S Elliott
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Cliff Diver	R Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	2-1	11	Kokokomo	C Oliveros
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 6/8/10 BOX
RACE #7 $7,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:23 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	6	Kaylees Shadow	R Diaz
PLACE	9-2	8	Cranky Sheila	W Hamilton
SHOW	2-1	2	Grantastic Maria	F Wethey Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Docs Bud	S Elliott
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Piel Morena	C Oliveros
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Haileys Jewel	R Guerra
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX
RACE #8 $7,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:51 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SATIN HEART
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Satin Heart	R Diaz
PLACE	3-1	8	Anna B	E Valdez-Jiminez
SHOW	10-1	1	Justcauseican	J L Alvarez
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Free Drop Gypsy	F Wethey Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Pharmes Phinale	C Oliveros
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	J M Sky Classic	G Mora
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
RACE #9 $33,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:19 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 GOLD BARON
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Gold Baron	S Elliott
PLACE	10-1	9	Top Cop	L D Goncalves
SHOW	12-1	2	Golden Flash	F J Manrrique
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Big Wave James	A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	3	Whiterose Jewel	R Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Uptown Bigbadjon	W Hamilton
* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - April 15

Apr. 14, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 RIPLEY EFFECT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	Ripley Effect	A A Gallardo
PLACE	7-2	3	Ill Go All In	A Quinonez
SHOW	7-5	2	Provocativa	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	7	R D Blessing	M Meneses
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	La Brody	S Marin
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Blushing Keylen	V Bush
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
RACE #2 $8,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 GLEAMING BRUTALITY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	7	Gleaming Brutality	A A Gallardo
PLACE	2-1	3	So Softly	L Sosa
SHOW	9-2	2	Truly a Dream	J A Batista
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Starship Precious	J L Castanon
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Raw Honey	J E Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Bourn Wild Again	S Marin
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #3 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	All About Lucky	M Meneses
PLACE	3-1	7	Hello Sucker	J A Batista
SHOW	5-1	4	Discreet Devil	A S Arroyo
WILD CARD	6-1	1	More Drama	R Mitchell
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Moccasin Bend	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Barons Blitz	R D Allen Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #4 $17,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:58 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 WELL CONNECTED
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Well Connected	V Bush
PLACE	10-1	6	Hit by a Wave	S Camacho
SHOW	2-1	3	Kitchen Fire	J L Castanon
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Bazoo	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	Schochoh	M Jimenez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Flipping Fish	R Feliciano
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	2	Irish Kitten	S Camacho
PLACE	6-1	3	Hurry Up Dear	J Alicea
SHOW	8-1	1	Morena Dancer	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Queen de La Creme	J C Ferrer
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Lookin At Kisses	R D Allen Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Sophia Lauren	A A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #6 $32,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:02 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	5	Estilo Magico	S Marin
PLACE	7-2	4	Roses by Liam	A Quinonez
SHOW	5-2	2	This Runs for You	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	9-5	3	Mikey Bananas	A A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Caughtandcollected	D Centeno
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Deceitful	A Suarez
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #7 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	4	Tall Girl	S Camacho
PLACE	2-1	7	Faccia Bella	A A Gallardo
SHOW	7-2	1	Explosive Exchange	A A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Princess Chessie	J E Lopez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	Damaso	A S Arroyo
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Go Mika	S Marin
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #8 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	The Swayze Express	R D Allen Jr.
PLACE	3-1	2	Not a Dance	M Meneses
SHOW	5-2	9	Happyize	A A Gallardo
WILD CARD	8-1	1	My Big Drama	R Mitchell
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	10	Deacon Eli	S Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Peinadito	J Suarez
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
RACE #9 $27,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:37 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	7	Roman Flame	M Meneses
PLACE	6-1	5	Justifiable Belle	J L Castanon
SHOW	5-2	1	Sun Bee	A A Gallardo
WILD CARD	3-1	10	Englished	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	One Violent Affair	H R Diaz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Mysterious Stare	D Centeno
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/5/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - April 15

Apr. 14, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	7	Magical Power	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-5	3	Oglethorpe	L Saez
SHOW	12-1	6	Braggadocious	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Trumptastic	J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Boones Path	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Artwell	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #2 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 PLEASE BE KIND
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	6	Please Be Kind	J Talamo
PLACE	6-1	10	Kates Concerto	F De La Cruz
SHOW	7-2	2	Zippin Pippin	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Bingo Star	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	12	Merrily Rush	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	7	Unified Decision	C Landeros
* EXACTA: 6-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 2/4/10 BOX
RACE #3 $120,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 PORTFOLIO COMPANY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	11	Portfolio Company	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	8-1	12	Eyes On Target	F Prat
SHOW	6-1	6	Easy Time	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	3	James Aloysius	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	13	Bless the Kitten	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	10	Punch Hard	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 11-12 BOX, 12-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/11/12 BOX, 3/6/12 BOX
RACE #4 $30,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 IMPLEMENTATION
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	7	Implementation	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	6-1	4	Magnolia Midnight	R Gutierrez
SHOW	15-1	5	Wellman	J McKee
WILD CARD	20-1	1	Inside Stunt	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Geaux Yoshka	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	8	Courthouse Cove	E Morales
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #5 $110,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	15	Battle of Normandy	L Dettori
PLACE	6-1	9	Really Good	U Rispoli
SHOW	3-1	8	Clever Thought	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Baby Billy	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Myredwhiteandblue	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	4	Emperors Appeal	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 15-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/15 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX
RACE #6 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	10	Zeitlos	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-2	9	Scylla	J Castellano
SHOW	30-1	14	Hidewright Away	R Gutierrez
WILD CARD	6-1	12	Watch This Birdie	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Hurry Up Hannah	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	11	Brenda	T Heard
* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-14 BOX, 14-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/10/14 BOX, 9/12/14 BOX
RACE #7 $110,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Master Game	L Saez
PLACE	5-2	1	Barber Road	R Gutierrez
SHOW	9-2	7	Tepeu	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Principe dOro	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	2	Graphic Detail	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Crump	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #8 $250,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	10	Twilight Gleaming	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	12	Star Devine	J L Ortiz
SHOW	9-2	4	Oeuvre	J Loveberry
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Happy Soul	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	9	Miners Queen	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Opening Buzz	L Machado
* EXACTA: 10-12 BOX, 12-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/10/12 BOX, 3/4/12 BOX
RACE #9 $400,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	11	Arabian Lion	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	8	Empirestrikesfast	L Dettori
SHOW	3-1	5	First Mission	L Saez
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Disarm	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Demolition Duke	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Baseline Beater	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 11-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/11 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
RACE #10 $600,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	2	In Italian	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	3	Queen Goddess	L Saez
SHOW	5-2	5	With The Moonlight	W Buick
WILD CARD	30-1	7	Henrietta Topham	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Skims	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	White Frost	L Dettori
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #11 $120,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Radio Days	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-2	2	Top Gun Girl	J R Velazquez
SHOW	2-1	12	Tarabi	L Saez
WILD CARD	10-1	9	My Kentucky Girl	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Your So Sillea	J Gilligan
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Ova Charged	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX, 12-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/12 BOX, 2/9/12 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - April 15

Apr. 14, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Ego	D Cabrera
PLACE	2-1	5	R Doc	C A Torres
SHOW	4-1	7	Sono Grato	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Boldish	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Trivista	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Rye Humor	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #2 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 FABULOUS FANNY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	6	Fabulous Fanny	C A Torres
PLACE	2-1	1	Chartreuse	I Castillo
SHOW	8-1	5	Keen Contender	K R Jordan
WILD CARD	10-1	9	The X Factor	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Charlize	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	7	Tiz Sweet Candy	E Medellin
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX
RACE #3 $60,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 WILLOW CREEK ROAD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Willow Creek Road	E Gallardo
PLACE	8-5	9	One Ten Stadium	J Rosario
SHOW	10-1	5	Westover	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Big Success	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Allo Enry	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Aspen Club	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/9 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX
RACE #4 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Kingdom	I Castillo
PLACE	3-1	7	Huntsville	F Geroux
SHOW	10-1	5	Sharp Stick	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	2-1	1	Tejas	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	6	Manta Rey	W De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Soybean Man	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #5 $30,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	Town Branch	F Arrieta
PLACE	2-1	7	Concept	T Gaffalione
SHOW	6-1	2	Kentucky Bourbon	J Rosario
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Schmooze	E Medellin
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Mr Creed	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Lucky Dude	K R Jordan
* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 STREET ART
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Street Art	F Geroux
PLACE	5-2	10	Midnight Majesty	C A Torres
SHOW	6-1	8	Family Tradition	R Zimmerman
WILD CARD	20-1	11	Koselio	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	12	Fast Lane	D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Immoral	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/10 BOX, 8/10/11 BOX
RACE #7 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	8	Necker Island	M Murrill
PLACE	5-2	2	Tuts Revenge	C A Torres
SHOW	20-1	1	Sir Wellington	E Gallardo
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Chattalot	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	5	Atoka	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	6	Fore Left	N Juarez
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #8 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:26 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	8	Hail Columbia	F Geroux
PLACE	3-1	7	Show Me Grace	F Arrieta
SHOW	20-1	9	House Wrecker	D Cabrera
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Legendary Gift	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Emerald Princess	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Chasing Shadows	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/9 BOX, 6/7/9 BOX
RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Tejano Twist	F Arrieta
PLACE	4-1	2	Skelly	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	10-1	1	Edge to Edge	M Murrill
WILD CARD	7-2	10	Strobe	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Cogburn	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	9	Payne	K J Asmussen
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/10 BOX
RACE #10 $45,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	9	Slam Dunk Sermon	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	3-1	14	Lamutanaatty	K J Asmussen
SHOW	5-1	11	Espionage	K R Jordan
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Papa Rocket	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	2	Joe Frazier	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Lansdowne	W De La Cruz
* EXACTA: 9-14 BOX, 14-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/11/14 BOX, 3/11/14 BOX
RACE #11 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	1	Secret Oath	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-5	4	Clairiere	J Rosario
SHOW	5-1	2	Hot and Sultry	D Cabrera
WILD CARD	20-1	3	I Feel the Need	C Bailey
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #12 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Ngala	C A Torres
PLACE	3-1	8	Next Thursday	M Garcia
SHOW	5-1	7	Aloha Baby	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	9-2	9	Count It All Joy	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Iconic Bonnet	E Medellin
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Cashmere Baby	C Bailey
* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 15, 2023

Apr. 14, 2023


Jenny Wiley Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward
Race 10 at Keeneland | Saturday April 15 | Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern
Win contenders:
With the Moonlight (5) ships in from the U.K. for world-class trainer Charles Appleby, after racing in at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai in February and running two spectacular races. The first was on February 3 when she won in a field of 12 in a Group 2 race and the second was even better when the won the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes by four and one-half lengths in a field of eight. Those group two races are the equivalent of North American grade 1 races so there’s no question of her class, which she proved last summer when nearly winning the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational in July, then winning the Saratoga Oaks Invitational in August before a near miss in the Lake Placid Stake in September. Having run twice this year, With the Moonlight has an edge over the only horse with lower starting odds, In Italian (2), who hasn’t run since November. Additionally, when Appleby ships to North America he is as close to deadly accurate as any trainer on record, evidenced by a 9-5-2 record over the last five years from 18 starters who ran their last races overseas. Better still, when using his #1 jockey William Buick as he’s doing here, Appleby has won five of seven with one other finishing second. The 118 Equibase Speed Figure With the Moonlight earned in her most recent race was a career best and as a four year old she has more likelihood to improve and run faster than the five year old In Italian, who earned a 120 figure when last seen in November.
In Italian (2) really has no knocks, as her 5-3-1 record in nine career starts attests. She has earned all five wins and two of her three runner-up efforts when racing on the lead from the start and there is absolutely no doubt, absent a stumble as the gates open, she will lead from the rail and try to control the pace. Still, she is giving away some physical condition to With the Moonlight and before the 120 figure earned when second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last November before her time off, her other figures ranted from 103 to 109, which if repeated won’t be good enough to hold off With the Moonlight in the late stages if that filly repeats or improves upon her most recent race, which came two months ago as opposed to five months ago for In Italian.
Queen Goddess (3) also cannot be ruled out as a contender to win, because she is a grade 1 winner in a grade 1 race. She captured the American Oaks in December of 2021 and although she hasn’t run at that level since she’s run big in every race on turf until today, winning three times and finishing second in the other. Her most recent win came in her most recent start when victorious in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational at this distance near the end of January with jockey Luis Saez up for the first time and riding back today. Her best efforts have yielded 104, 106, 107 and 109 figures in line with the best races In Italian has run so Queen Goddess is just as probable to win in my opinion but will offer a better return for the risk on win bets.
With the three fillies and mares above likely to go to post as the top three betting choices, we can look to the exacta and trifecta for some value. In that regard, Speak of the Devil (4) is a horse I feel strongly can finish second or third so we will use her on some wagers below. She opens at 10 to 1 odds and she makes her second start after nine months off. She won the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile Stakes last May in her U.S. debut and could be closing strongly late.
Bets:
Win Bets:
I will bet With the Moonlight (5) to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Minimum odds on In Italian (2) are 8 to 5 but she will very likely be lower than those odds.
Minimum odds for a win bet are 3 to 1 on Queen Goddess (3) and therefore I would consider a win bet at those odds or higher.
Exactas:
With the Moonlight (5) over Speak of the Devil (4)
In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) and With the Moonlight (5) over Speak of the Devil (4)
Trifectas:
With the Moonlight (5) over In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) over Speak of the Devil (4)
In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) and With the Moonlight (5) over In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) and With the Moonlight (5) over Speak of the Devil (4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Lexington Stakes | April 15

Apr. 14, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
The $400,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, Keeneland, Race 9, 5:16 p.m. Eastern
(6) Disarm needs a third-place finish to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, and should be able to do that. His connections have been high on him since debut but he was sidelined after a September maiden win. He was second in the Louisiana Derby last time and can continue to make up for lost time here. (5) First Mission was an impressive maiden winner at Fair Grounds for Cox and seems ready to face the challenge of stakes company. (11) Arabian Lion looked like one of Baffert’s top Triple Crown contenders in December but flopped in two stakes tries. Returns after a two-month layoff and should be a factor here. (3) Demolition Duke missed by a neck in a fast allowance race and seems on the upswing. Should be a main contender here. Betting strategy: 6 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 3-5-6-11.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Hotlist - April 15

Apr. 14, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (7) Magical Power (C) dropped from 9-5 to 7-5 for his debut with and weakened late to settle for second. May not get caught today. (3) Oglethorpe was second on a muddy track in his lone dirt try and may be a factor here. (6) Braggadocious is worth a look in his debut. (1) Trumptastic may enjoy the stretchout. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7. Exactas: 3-7 over 1-6 and 1-6 over 3-7.
3rd race – (11) Portfolio Company was a game second last time and should be able to overcome a bad post. (6) Easy Time had a rough trip last time but can rebound here. (3) James Aloysius seeks a third straight win and cannot be ignored. (2) Vivar should make a smooth switch over to turf. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-11.
6th race – (12) Watch This Birdie faltered last time but can bounce back in this spot. (10) Zeitlos has not raced since a second in September but is showing promise in morning works. (7) Oldest Sister may benefit from her debut and move forward today. (9) Scylla could be a main factor in her debut. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 7-9-10-12.
8th race – (10) Twilight Gleaming was a Breeders’ Cup winner at 2 and should regain her winning stride here. (1) Train to Artemus has a nice turn of speed and will benefit from a rail trip. (3) Happy Soul lost by a head in a stakes in her lone turf race and merits plenty of attention. (5) Amy C will benefit if there’s a big speed duel. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-10.
10th race – The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley - (2) In Italian is a proven Grade 1 winner who should lead throughout here. (3) Queen Goddess won the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf and will be the main rival. (5) With The Moonlight is a top runner from Charlie Appleby’s overseas barn and cannot be ignored. (4) Speak of the Devil had a rough trip last time and could be a factor with better racing luck. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-5.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(7)	Magical Power	C, 3/18	1 Kee	Was second in his career debut

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Hotlist - April 15

Apr. 14, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [OC 62k/N1X, 6F] – (4) Toxic Gray won his last two starts going from a maiden special weight to a starter allowance with a pair of stalking trips. (2) Looms Boldly made four starts in NY-bred company with two wins and a pair of other top three finishers. One of his victories was in a stakes race. (1) Warman Road made his first start of the year with a maiden win that made a big jump in speed figures over his one race as a 2-year-old. (5) Heldish set the pace in a Laurel Park allowance and finished fourth.
3^rd race [Danger’s Hour, 1 mi TURF] – (5) Celestial City will make his 2023 debut having won the Hill Prince (G2) last year as a 3-year-old. (3) Big Everest will return from a Winter break after winning the Artie Schiller at Aqueduct in November. He is the winner of 4 out of his last 5 starts. (1) Anaconda made two starts this year in a Grade 3 in California and a sprint at Turfway Park on the Tapeta. Last year he was second in the Turf Sprint Championship at the Big A. (6) Koolhaus will make his first start on the turf after two starts at Turfway this year with an allowance win.
4^th race [Clm 14000 N3L, 1 mi] – (8) Hang Tight gets blinkers on after dropping down to today’s level and running third. (4) Life and Light moved from the Tapeta to the dirt and closed well to win at the N2L condition. (2) Sight Unseen was claimed last time after running third in his first start at the $14,000 N3L level. (6) Patrick the Great was a front-end winner of the N2L condition in his last race for Linda Rice.
8^th race [Alw 50000s, 6F] – (6) Built to Last was claimed for $40,000 last time after getting bet down from 4-1 to 2-1 to be the favorite and finished a close second after pressing the pace. (1) Win for Gold set the pace and finished second in a starter allowance last time. (7) Zeebar was an open length winner of his debut in February and then stepped up to run third in a starter allowance in his second start. (5) Necromancer was a winner in his first start of the year in a $40,000 claimer N2L condition with a closing move.
Best bets: Toxic Gray (2^nd); Celestial City (3^rd). Best value: Hang Tight (4^th); Built to Last (8^th).
SaturdayPick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 2-4 and includes the Danger’s Hour

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Whiteley Stakes at Laurel | Saturday, April 15

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April 12, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
It's a huge Saturday at Laurel Park with automatic berths up for grabs in the Preakness and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. The Federico Tesio and Weber City Miss Stakes will fill those slots via the "Win Today & See You in May" conditions of those sophomore events. But it's the older sprinters I want to feature in Saturday's Whiteley, which goes as Race 8. Players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on win bets in the 4 Laurel Saturday stakes if those horses finish second or third.

Field Depth:
EASTERN BAY and INFORMATIVE are Grade 3 winners, while FACTOR IT IN, YODEL E.A. WHO and BANKIT are all Grade 3-placed. INFORMATIVE has kept the strongest company lines and rates a class edge.

Pace:
AL LOVES JOSIE rarely relinquishes the initial lead and is a 6-furlong runner trying to extend to 7 furlongs. He'll battle with speedy HELLO HOT ROD and KENNY HAD A NOTION. This trio should set the table nicely for a first-over run from a horse sitting around the 3-4-5 slots going into the far turn.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-EASTERN BAY: Grade 3 General George winner in February returns to same distance and track as his signature score. Loves to win races, taking 19 of them (13 at Laurel). Last year's Vosburgh runner-up to eventual Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Elite Power will be best-suited if he stays a bit closer to the pace than he has in his last few.

2-KENNY HAD A NOTION: Maryland-bred did most of his damage early in his career and would be a big wake-up surprise to see this out on the front end. Did finish neck in front of EASTERN BAY last out at 6 furlongs, but this race is deeper, faster and longer.

3-FACTOR IT IN: Disappointing fourth in Grade 3 General George as the 6-5 favorite, but consider that was without Lasix. This 7-year-old is 6: 5-1-0 when racing on Lasix since October. Versasitle running style will come in handy in this race as he's won wire-to-wire and last-to-first in just his last 4 starts. The horse to beat in the lane from just off the leaders.

4-WITTY: Late runner won the Spectacular Bid over this track and distance 15 months ago and returns in solid form off an allowance prep at Parx. He ran a big race second-off-the-layoff in his form cycle last June and could be expected to make another leap forward. Cross-entered in Thursday Laurel allowance.

5-YODEL E.A. WHO: Deep closer will need the pace to come back to him even more so than it did when runner-up in the Fire Plug and Grade 3 General George when not able to threaten FACT IT IN and EASTERN BAY. Consistent performer just under 50% lifetime in the exacta from 52 starts, an admirable mark.

6-AL LOVES JOSIE: Need-the-lead sort stands a good chance to make the front, but the 7-furlong trip and additional pace pressure could unravel his chances. Wheels came off in the Fire Plug when unable to make the lead against some of these, so there's no margin for any error.

7-BANKIT: Seven-year-old continues to punch strongly in New York-bred stakes and we know he can handle the surface at Laurel, winning the 1-1/16 miles John B. Campbell in 2021 in his only local appearance. Has been closer to the pace in recent starts than once was his deep-closing style; that will help this Steve Asmussen trainee in this particular set-up.

8-ALWAYSINAHURRY: His 3-for-4 mark over 7 furlongs and determined finishing style should have him doing his best running at the end. That wasn't good enough in the Fire Plug vs. FACTOR IT IN and YODEL E.A. WHO when he was in raging-good form. He seems a bit off the mark of late.

9-INFORMATIVE: Monmouth specialist won the Grade 3 Salvator Mile and Grade 3 Iselin around 2 turns in Jersey, but hasn't been in a sprint like this in some time. He's 4: 0-0-1 over 7 furlongs and would be a surprise to be able to sprint with these ... even with a class edge. Prefer others.

10-HELLO HOT ROD: Enigmatic sort's best races are when he can control the pace and that's going to be difficult in this spot. The wide post draw does him know favors, though 31% winning jockey-trainer tandem Jevian Toledo-Brittany Russell are never an easy toss. Again, prefer others.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
FACTOR IT IN has been a heat-seeking missile when able to compete with Lasix. He gets first run on the deeper closers.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
WITTY interests for minor awards if they opt to run here and skip the Thursday allowance.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 exacta part-wheel FACTOR IT IN over EASTERN BAY and BANK IT ($100).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Kentucky Derby Top 10, Plus Lexington Picks

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April 12, 2023 | By Jon White
I thought the Kentucky Derby picture would become clearer to me following the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes and Grade II Wood Memorial last Saturday (April 8).

I was wrong.

Oh, I did not have a great deal of trouble coming with a Top 10 this week. It was ranking them that gave me a headache. I would jot down my Top 10, look at it, then adjust it. I kept doing that over and over and over until I finally settled on the rankings.

I now see this as a wide-open Kentucky Derby. I think Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin put it well when writing this week that “this is the kind of year when any of the Top 12 or so horses can win the [Kentucky] Derby without it being a surprise, so all we can do is see how the race shapes up and see who gets the best trip.”

Below is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week, followed by the horse’s current ranking by the Thoroughbred Daily News’ T.D. Thornton, the aforementioned Haskin and BloodHorse’s Byron King:

My Ranking Horse (TDN, Haskin, BloodHorse)

1. Practical Move (1, 4, 4)

2. Kingsbarns (6, 10, 7)

3. Tapit Trice (5, 2, 2)

4. Angel of Empire (9, 5, 3)

5. Forte (2, 1, 1)

6. Derma Sotogake (15, 3, 8)

7. Skinner (13, 9, 10)

8. Two Phil’s (10, 8, 5)

9. Mandarin Hero (11, 12, not ranked in the BH Top 12)

10. Verifying (4, 6, 6)

Now here is a horse-by-horse look at my Top 10:

1. PRACTICAL MOVE (trainer Tim Yakteen). I have had Practical Move ranked No. 1 each week since his win in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 4. When he won the Santa Anita Derby by just a nose last weekend, I initially seriously considered moving him down on my Top 10 this week.

One of the reasons I am keeping Practical Move at the top of the list is he was credited with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his Santa Anita performance, matching his figure in the San Felipe.

Practical Move is going to be the only Kentucky Derby entrant this year with more than one triple-digit Beyer. That in itself makes him a serious player in the May 6 classic. (The fact that no other Kentucky Derby candidate owns more than a single triple-digit Beyer also might be telling us that this 3-year-old male class might not be a particularly strong one).

The TDN’s Thornton points out that Practical Move’s winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby has the distinction of being the fastest of all the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby qualifying stakes races in 2022-23.

Additionally, Thornton notes that Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Derby qualifying stakes races in 2022-23. Practical Move won the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity in 1:41.65. He won the San Felipe in 1:42.01.

Thorton, like yours truly, has Practical Move ranked No. 1 for the Kentucky Derby this week.

“Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense ‘momentum’ horse heading to Louisville,” Thorton wrote. “In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday [April 8], this son of Practical Joke pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a [Kentucky] Derby contender.”

Of course, inasmuch as I stand to collect nearly $17,000 on a $200 Kentucky Derby future bet I made on Practical Move at odds of 83-1 on Feb. 12 if he wins the roses, I am delighted to see Thornton has him ranked No. 1.

Thornton wrote that Practical Move “has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise,” but I must admit that what Practical Move did in the final furlong of the Santa Anita Derby does concern me. When he was in front by one length a furlong out, I was looking for him to kick clear and win by something like two or three lengths. But instead of that, he had to dig deep and run his heart out to eke out a win by the slimmest of margins.

Yes, Practical Move deserves much credit for being so game in victory last Saturday. But in light of a narrow win when stretched out to 1 1/8 miles, I can’t help wondering if being asked to travel 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May might be farther than he truly wants to go. There really is no getting around the fact that Practical Move is a son of Practical Joke, who was pretty much a sprinter/miler.

Nevertheless, even though Practical Move’s lead in the Santa Anita Derby shrank from one length to a nose in the last furlong, Thornton obviously is of the opinion that the colt has the right stuff to become a Kentucky Derby winner by ranking him No. 1.

“Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven ‘Wow!’ gear late in the lane,” Thornton wrote. “But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.”

2. KINGSBARNS (trainer Todd Pletcher). I have Practical Move and Kingsbarns ranked 1-2 primarily in the belief that they both could find themselves in a good, forward position early in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, which doesn’t appear to be loaded with front-running types this year.

Thornton points out that eight of the last nine Kentucky Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead.

My thinking on Kingsbarns is we just don’t know how good he is at this point. Is he the Justify of 2023?

Kingsbarns is three for three, winning by 1 3/4, 7 3/4 and 3 1/2 lengths.

Justify likewise was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby, winning by 9 1/2, 6 1/2 and 3 lengths. He won the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths while on his way to a sweep of the coveted Triple Crown.

One difference between Kingsbarns and Justify are their Beyers. Kingsbarns’ figures have been 74, 85, 95. Justify’s first three Beyers were 104, 102 and 107.

While Kingsbarns’ first three Beyers have been lower than Justify’s, I do like Kingsbarns’ improving pattern. If he continues the upward trajectory in the Kentucky Derby, he has as good a chance of winning as anyone.

I know a lot of people knock Kingsbarns because he got away with setting a slow pace in the Louisiana Derby. But it’s not as if he’s a need-the-early-lead colt style-wise. He won his first two races from off the pace. I think he actually might be better off having a target to run at on the first Saturday in May.

Justify became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without have raced as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Will Kingsbarns be the third to do it? I think it could happen.

3. TAPIT TRICE (trainer Todd Pletcher). I had Tapit Trice ranked No. 5 last week. He climbs to No. 3 this week off his win in the Blue Grass. The $1.3 million auction purchase now has reeled off four consecutive victories since finishing third in his career debut.

There were two things that I really liked about Tapit Trice’s Blue Grass. First, he wasn’t as far back on the backstretch in the Blue Grass as he had been when he won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. Second, like Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby, Tapit Trice showed the gameness needed in order to narrowly prevail in a fierce battle down to the wire.

It’s also meaningful to me that Tapit Trice was able to make his rally early enough in the Blue Grass to be second with a furlong left to run. This indicates that he is capable of being first or second with a furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby. And that’s very important to me because 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong out.

4. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (trainer Brad Cox). Cox has felt all along that Angel of Empire is the type who would relish running in races at 1 1/8 miles and longer. This certainly has proven to be the case in that the Pennsylvania-bred Classic Empire colt heads to the Kentucky Derby off back-to-back 1 1/8-mile successes in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes and Oaklawn Park’s Grade I Arkansas Derby.

Angel of Empire’s Arkansas Derby was especially impressive in that he sustained a long rally. Also, it was significant to me that he managed to already be 2 1/2 lengths in front a furlong out, then increased his advantage to win by 4 1/4 lengths.

In other words, Angel of Empire’s Arkansas Derby effort strongly suggests that he isn’t a come-from-the-clouds 3-year-old who seemingly has little chance of being first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby.

Meanwhile, I’d say that it has to be considered a plus for Angel of Empire that Flavien Prat has opted to ride him instead of Kingsbarns in the Kentucky Derby. Prat won the Arkansas Derby on Angel Empire after taking the Louisiana Derby aboard Kingsbarns.

All in all, I see Angel of Empire as being a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby.

5. FORTE (trainer Todd Pletcher). Talk about holding a strong hand. Pletcher trains No. 2 Kingsbarns, No. 3 Tapit Trice and No. 5 Forte.

Forte was last year’s Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion. He was a three-time Grade I winner last year during a campaign highlighted by a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

After being the top 2-year-old male, Forte also might be the top 3-year-old male. He goes into the Kentucky Derby off wins this year in Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth and Grade I Florida Derby.

I respect Forte a lot for what he has accomplished so far. He’s tasted defeat just once in seven career starts.

Then why in the heck don’t I have Forte ranked higher than No. 5? The answer is, unlike fellow Pletcher trainees Kingsbarns and Tapit Trice, Forte’s Beyers are going in the wrong direction.

After Forte registered a 100 Beyer in the BC Juvenile, he ran a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then slid further down to a 95 in the Florida Derby.

In addition to Forte’s declining Beyers, a big concern I have is he was third at the eighth pole in the Fountain of Youth, then fifth at that point in the Florida Derby.

That raises a red flag to me in that there is a distinct possibility Forte will not be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby. Again, if he’s not one-two with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, the odds will be against him winning. As mentioned earlier, 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second at with a furlong left to run.

6. DERMA SOTOGAKE (trainer Hidetaka Otonashi). I, for one, certainly won’t be surprised if Derma Sotogake wins the Kentucky Derby. I also won’t be surprised if he finishes fifth or worse.

Japanese horses are running big races all over the globe. Just last Saturday, Mandarin Hero posted a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he came within a whisker of winning the Santa Anita Derby despite having previously raced exclusively at a so-called B track in Japan.

Not only did Derma Sotogake win the UAE Derby emphatically by 5 1/2 lengths, he led a 1-2-3-4 sweep in the Grade II event by Japanese runners.

Derma Sotogake is considered to be superior to Mandarin Hero. Hence, considering what a fine race Mandarin Hero ran in defeat in the Santa Anita Derby, it’s perfectly understandable why so many think Derma Sotogake has a huge chance to win the Kentucky Derby.

The fly in the ointment for Derma Sotogake is the abysmal record by UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish of 18 UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby was fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011.

The best finish by a winner of the UAE Derby was sixth by China Visit all the way back in 2000.

This year’s UAE Derby and Group I Dubai World Cup for older horses do not have official Beyer Speed Figures. However, Randy Moss of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team has said that the estimate is that Derma Sotogake not only would have run a triple-digit figure in the UAE Derby, his figure would be higher than that of Ushba Tesora for his win in the Dubai World Cup.

Derma Sotogake’s final time in the UAE Derby was 1:55.81, making it the second-fastest since the race’s distance was changed to 1,900 meters, or about 1 3/16 miles, in 2010. The fastest winner at this distance was Mendelssohn’s 1:55.18 when he won by 18 1/2 lengths in 2018.

In the Kentucky Derby, Mendelssohn was banged around early before finishing last in the field of 20.

Derma Sotogake is a very talented equine athlete. And like Practical Move and Kingsbarns, the Japanese star’s early speed should play well in this year’s Kentucky Derby. But can he overcome the UAE Derby jinx?

7. SKINNER (trainer John Shirreffs). What makes Skinner look scary to me as a possible Kentucky Derby victor is it seems he’s getting better and better for a horseman who is outstanding in terms of being able to have a horse peak for an important race.

Shirreffs, best known as trainer of the great Zenyatta, won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacomo. I think Skinner might well be better than Giacomo.

Giacomo finished second in the San Felipe, then fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, then peaked on the first Saturday in May to pull off a Kentucky Derby upset. His Beyers in those three races were 93, then 95, then 100.

Skinner finished third in the San Felipe, then a much closer third in the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyers in those two races were 94, then 99.

If Skinner’s Beyer trend continues, he stands a good chance to record a triple-digit Beyer in the Kentucky Derby. That makes him dangerous at what should be a very nice price, though probably nowhere close to Giacomo’s Kentucky Derby odds of 50-1.

8. TWO PHIL’S (trainer Larry Rivelli). This is the 3-year-old who will boast the highest Beyer Speed Figure among the 2023 Kentucky Derby participants, a 101 he received when he won Turfway Park’s Grade III Jeff Ruby by 5 1/2 lengths on March 25.

But that 101 Beyer came in a race that was run on a synthetic surface. Did Two Phil’s look so terrific and reach 101 on the Beyer scale in the Jeff Ruby because of the synthetic surface?

The main reason I don’t have Two Phil’s ranked higher than No. 8 is the top Beyer that he’s recorded on dirt is only an 88.

But one also should be aware of the possibility that Two Phil’s came up with such a glittering performance in the Jeff Ruby because he is blossoming at this time of the year, as 3-year-olds sometimes do, such as Charismatic in 1999.

9. MANDARIN HERO (trainer Bokujo Fujita). With 40 points to his credit, Mandarin Hero is going to need help to get into the Kentucky Derby. But if he somehow does get into the race, he is not one to cavalierly dismiss after losing the Santa Anita Derby by a only a nose.

Mandarin Hero started off his racing career with four straight wins in Japan. He then finished second to Hero Call in Japan’s Kumostori Sho at about 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 23 in his 2023 debut. His past performances show him losing that race by a neck. Well, when I watch the video on YouTube, I do not agree with that margin. It appears to me that he gets beat by one length or maybe three-quarters of a length, but definitely more than by a neck.

This is a link to Mandarin Hero’s Kumostori Sho on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwUpR81qYjc

10. VERIFYING (trainer Brad Cox). Largely because of Verifying’s breeding, I have had my eye on him ever since he won a six-furlong maiden special weight race when unveiled at Saratoga last summer.

Verifying, whose sire is 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, is a half-brother to Midnight Bisou, who was voted a 2019 Eclipse Award as champion older female dirt champion.

In his first 2023 start, Verifying won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming contest at Oaklawn by 5 1/4 lengths. But he then finished fourth in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25, a race in which he ran a sloppy track and didn’t have the best of trips.

Back on dry land in the Blue Grass last Saturday, Verifying rebounded from his disappointing Rebel to finish second in the Blue Grass. At the end of a fierce battle with Tapit Trice in the final furlong, Verifying lost the Blue Grass by a neck.

Verifying ran too good to lose last Saturday. It looks like he might have a big say in the Kentucky Derby, though I like Tapit Trice better than Verifying at 1 1/4 miles.

LEXINGTON STAKES SELECTIONS

Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes, the final race offering points toward the 2023 Kentucky Derby, will be contested at 1 1/16 miles this Saturday (April 15). The Grade III affair has 20-8-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs.

My top pick is Disarm, who currently has 40 Kentucky Derby points. If he finishes first, second or third in the Lexington, he probably will have enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Disarm is coming off a second in the Louisiana Derby. If the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt does win the Lexington, I think he will be a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby.

Disarm recorded a 90 Beyer for his runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby.

First Mission, a Cox-trained Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt, goes into the Lexington off a 6 3/4-length Fair Grounds maiden special weight score at 1 1/16 miles on March 18.

In First Mission’s maiden win, he recorded an 89 Beyer. That followed a 96 when he finished second in his Feb. 18 career debut to the highly regarded Bishops Bay, also trained by Cox.

Arabian Lion, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, kicked off his racing career with a three-length maiden special weight victory (92 Beyer) in a six-furlong race at Santa Anita last Oct. 9. However, the Kentucky-bred Justify colt has lost three in a row since earning his maiden diploma.

A sharp six-furlong workout in 1:11.20 at Santa Anita last Sunday (April 9) could be a sign that Arabian Lion might prove a tough customer in the Lexington, though drawing post 11 doesn’t help.

Empirestrikesfast should not be taken lightly. He was credited with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure when he won a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Gulfstream Park on March 11 in his lone start to date. Hall of Famer Bill Mott trains the Kentucky-bred Empire Maker colt.

My selections for the Lexington Stakes are below:

1. Disarm
2. First Mission
3. Arabian Lion
4. Empirestrikesfast

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM

I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) in 1999. Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.

Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby were quite popular for many years. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. But when many of the “Derby rules” were broken through the years, their popularity waned.

I think it’s the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”

A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Thus, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, the Derby Strikes System was unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby returned to its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.

It’s when a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes in the DSS.

The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.

The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.

History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.

The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).

Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.

The strikes for a number of horses scheduled to make their next start in the Kentucky Derby are listed below:

ZERO STRIKES

Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake
Hit Show
Major Dude
Practical Move
Tapit Trice

ONE STRIKE

Confidence Game (Category 5)
Disarm (Category 2)
Forte (Category 3)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Lord Miles (Category 3)
Raise Cain (Category 5)
Reincarnate (Category 4)
Rocket Can (Category 5)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)
Wild On Ice (Category 8)

TWO STRIKES

Blazing Sevens (Categories 3 and 6)
Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4)
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
Mandarin Hero (Categories 1 and 2)
Skinner (Categories 2 and 3)
Sun Thunder (Categories 2 and 3)
Verifying (Categories 2 and 4)

THREE STRIKES

Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7)

WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973

Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.

The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:

2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money

**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 331 Elite Power (25)
2. 250 Stilleto Boy (3)
3. 238 Art Collector (6)
4. 195 West Will Power
5. 160 Secret Oath (1)
6. 123 Last Samurai (1)
7. 111 Goodnight Olive
7. 111 Cody’s Wish (1)
9. 103 Country Grammer (1)
10. 58 Nest

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 372 Forte (32)
2. 308 Tapit Trice (4)
3. 282 Practical Move (1)
3. 263 Angel of Empire
5. 199 Kingsbarns (1)
6. 118 Derma Sotogake
7. 101 Two Phil’s
8. 79 Verifying
8. 70 Mandarin Hero
10. 68 Confidence Game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Apple Blossom Handicap: Meet the Contenders

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April 12, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
It’s a short, but select field for Saturday’s $1 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes at Oaklawn. The 1-1/16 miles, tradition-rich staple of springtime in Arkansas shares the marquee Saturday with the $500,000 Grade 3 Count Fleet for sprinters.

Let’s Meet the Contenders for the Apple Blossom:

#1 Secret Oath (Tyler Gaffalione // D. Wayne Lukas)

The 2022 Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner has amassed just shy of $2 million in lifetime earnings. Secret Oath returned for her 4-year-old season in style with an impressive win in the Grade 3 Azeri Stakes, local prep for the Apple Blossom. Her auspicious sophomore season saw her finish fourth in the Preakness, third in the Arkansas Derby and she lit the board in Grade 1 races like the Coaching Club American Oaks, Alabama and Cotillion. Hall of Fame trainer Lukas has 3 Apple Blossom trophies: 1983 (Miss Huntington), 1987 (North Sider) and most recently 2004 (Azeri). Dam Absinthe Minded finished third in the 2011 Apple Blossom and second in her 2012 return try.

#2 Hot and Sultry (David Cabrera // Norm Casse)

First or second in 5 of 6 career starts, she won the American Beauty Stakes in January while pressing the pace. She subsequently finished fourth in the Grade 3 Azeri, beaten just over 3 lengths by Secret Oath after dueling on the lead. While not a dead-set front-runner, she should be quickest of these early and set the tempo under expectedly modest fractions. Jockey Cabrera seeks his first Grade 1 victory, as does trainer Norm Casse, who earlier this spring won the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks with Southlawn for his biggest career score.

#3 I Feel the Need (Chel-c Bailey // Burl McBride)

The field’s longest shot has 1 win from 8 starts, coming in maiden claiming company 14 months ago. She finished fourth in the 2022 Grade 3 Fantasy, outrunning her 40-1 odds in that 8-filly affair. Would be the first graded stakes winner for jockey Bailey as well as trainer McBride, who has been plying his trade since 1981. Daughter of Keen Ice, who upset Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in a 16-1 stunner in the 2015 Travers. Deep closer not expected to impact the early pace.

#4 Clairiere (Joel Rosario // Steve Asmussen)

Top earner in the field with $2.1 million banked, she rallied to be second-best behind Letruska in this race last season. Clairiere was a Grade 1 winner at age 3 (Cotillion) and age 4 (Ogden Phipps). The five-year-old may be the field’s elder this year, but this race has been won by the likes of Letruska (6), Zenyatta (6) and Azeri (6) in recent decades. Trainer Asmussen’s Apple Blossom history includes victories with Untapable (2015) and Midnight Bisou (2019). Jockey Rosario won the ’14 Apple Blossom aboard Close Hatches. Expect her rally to follow Secret Oath and try to cut into that 2-3/4 length margin when second-best in the Azeri.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Aqueduct Picks

1	#1 Conman	2-1	M E Casse	D Davis
2	#2 Looms Boldly	2-1	B H Cox	M Franco
3	#3 Big Everest	4-5	C Clement	M Franco
4	#6 Patrick the Great	3-1	L Rice	K Carmouche
5	#10 Carlin Clan	3-1	R N Falcone, Jr.	K Carmouche
6	#2 Raise the Rent	5-2	K J Breen	T McCarthy
7	#2 Orange Freeze	5-1	C Clement	D Davis
8	#1 Win for Gold	9-2	M Giangiulio	K Carmouche
9	#1 Spelterini	6-1	W I Mott	J A Vargas, Jr.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Charles Town Picks

1	#2 Cherokee Castle	8-5	R W Brown	C E Lopez
2	#5 Divine Fashion	8-5	A Farrior	A Bocachica
3	#7 Talented Corinna	7-2	R W Brown	C E Lopez
4	#9 Yazzera	8-5	A Farrior	A Bocachica
5	#7 Coffee Bean	5-1	M Serey, Jr.	J F Hernandez
6	#2 Baytown Jakester	5-1	S R Viands	D Araujo
7	#4 Penguin Power	8-5	J C Runco	A Bocachica
8	#1 Seneca Rocks	4-1	J Contreras	W Ho
9	#1 Shiny Penny	10-1	C G Pickett	D Araujo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Fonner Park Picks

1	#3 Tricky Mom	8-5	I V Gonzalez	K Roman
2	#1 Jono	9-2	T D Rushton	N Haar
3	#1 Lover Boy	6-1	L D Donlin, Jr.	A Martinez
4	#1 Beta Capo Song	2-1	M N Hibdon	R Morales
5	#1 Klimco	7-2	I V Gonzalez	K Roman
6	#5 I See Clearly Now	1-1	M N Hibdon	R Morales
7	#1 Hank's Gal	3-1	D C Anderson	N Haar
8	#1 Wrath	3-1	G W Ecoffey	B McNeil
9	#1 Tale of a Storm	5-2	I V Gonzalez	K Roman
10	#2 Finding Silver	6-1	G W Ecoffey	M T Luark