Saturday 3/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:32 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know for Santa Anita - 3/25/23

March 25, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Quality Wins; 3-Duran
Backups/savers: 5-Eastbound

Forecast: In his second career start (and his first since September of 2021), Quality Wins showed plenty of ability when overcoming some early self-caused trouble to finish an excellent second (well clear of the rest) in a solid maiden turf sprint last month. The Quality Road gelding galloped out strongly as if to indicate that today’s stretch out in trip will be well within his range. We love the blinkers off move for a stable that has solid stats with the second-off-the-layoff angle, and in a race that projects to have modest early splits this Mark Glatt trainee could grab control early and never look back. Also worth including on your ticket is Duran, a sophomore gelding who ran better the line will show in his debut and seems sure to step forward with a race under his belt combined with today’s added distance. The son of Violence adds Lasix after finishing a distant but willing fifth (beaten 10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:33 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

March 25, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 14-race card set to go with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Deliciousstone DK (8-1)-Closed strongly in last in the 1st start on Lasix and now Gingras takes a seat. Takes a big step up in class but will respect connections, Ron Burke doesn't usually overclassify horses. Thinking this is the time for the wrapper to come off in the 4th start stateside and should off a square price.
5-Robbie Pev (6-1)-Ships in from PcD and should fit in what is only the 2nd Big M start. David Miller gets the assignment ands this 5-year-old likes to win. Gets a nice draw in the 2nd start off the bench with the program choice leaving from post 8.
8-Platinum AS (3-1)-The breaking issues may have been cured after coming to the big track. Finished 3rd versus a lot better in the 2 previous starts. Tetrick sticks, and with a decent trip this could be picture time.

Race 7

3-Bettor Not Talk (10-1)-David Miller has done well with this 5-year-old in the past and he will be steering tonight. Could surprise with an alert start and that could be the plan in the 2nd race since 1-21.
5-It's In The Stars (3-1)-Shipped here from up North and had a big 1st try at M1 losing by only a noise. Flew the last 1/2 and should be better facing an easier field. Best to respect but slows starts can lead to being pace compromised and could be over bet.
6-Dontlikeitleave (7/2)-Wasn't Gingras choice, he stuck with the Burke entry #10. But Zeron knows well and the last effort from post 9 of almost wiring the field shouldn't be overlooked. Like the one above, could be better on the drop.

Race 8

5-Love Your Work A (5-1)-Aussie invader seems to be rounding into fine form and the addition of Lasix 2 back has helped. Steps-up here, should offer a solid return and we might not have seen the best from this 6-year-old.
7-Bettor Memories (3-1)-Drops, gets Gingras back and may have met a beatable field. Showed improvement in last with some class relief and will look for the upswing to continue.

Race 9

6-Tam Major A (3-1)-This 9-year-old can still crank it up and should be able to compete well here. Gingras sticks and the veteran could be tough to beat with a top effort. Looking for an aggressive steer and to race near the top of the stack.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,5,8/3,5,6/5,7/6
Total Bet=$9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:34 AM

Jeff Siegel: Louisiana Derby Day All-Stakes Pick 5 | Saturday

March 24, 2023
8th race - Tom Benson Memorial

6-Didia
9-New Year's Eve
1-Adventuring

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9th race - New Orleans Classic

2-Art Collector
5-Rattle N Roll

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10th race - Muniz Memorial Classic

1-Atone
5-Spook Channel
6-Two Emmys

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11th race - Fair Grounds Oaks

5-Hoosier Philly

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12th race - Louisiana Derby

5-Disarm
2-Instant Coffee

Ticket Cost: $18 for $.50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:37 AM

Michelle Yu: Dubai World Cup Day Best Bets

March 24, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
Meydan | Race 5 | UAE Derby

5-Derma Sotagake : Competitive third in the Saudi Derby, he should appreciate having more ground as he has run well at a little longer distances before. Christophe Lemaire takes over riding duties on the up and comer.

3-Cairo: Mendelssohn connections try and emulate that UAE Derby win with the ultra consistent Cairo, who uses an all weather win at Dundalk as a stepping stone to here. Homebred has never run on dirt before but I see no issues from the sire’s kids and he has a sibling with a few dirt wins. Can never count out Ballydoyle in these spots; though I would watch him closely as there is indication he could come unglued the night of.

13-Worcester: Maiden was 3rd in the Bob Lewis at his California base and is bred to relish more real estate. Looked like he got over the ground well in a 5 panel breeze, but we have seen in past years a difference in the morning surface versus raceday surface. Also, of all the trophies lining Baffert’s walls, he has yet to claim this one.

8-Goraiko: Last year's winning trainer Koichi Santani sends his charge off a well beaten 5th last time out in the Hyacinth won by Perriere that day. In keeping with our footsteps theme, Crown Pride was also soundly defeated in that prep before taking the UAE Derby last year. I like to think that was a prep going shorter than preferred and he can come back with a solid effort.

Wagers:

Exacta Box: 5,3,13,8

$10 Win-Place 5

Meydan | Race 9 | Dubai World Cup

4-Country Grammer: Defending champ is aching to get back to 10 furlongs and he was able to parlay a Saudi runner-up into a win last year. If you want to see a horse with pure guts watch this years running as he was nowhere to be found turning for home. Ultra consistent performer needs to reel in Panthalassa, but has the extra ground to do so and is the top pick.

9-Panthalassa: Outside draw is not my favorite spot for my need the lead Saudi CUp champion. He was able to ride the rails in Saudi to a win and took no pressure. With other speed to him inside here, that will be an all out commitment to get to the front and a battle will need to be won early before fighting the war late. There is an off chance he sits off someone and is content, but I think he is best when making each post. I could see him winning, but I could see him flopping if he doesn’t get on the lead. Not off the bandwagon, but not my top play today.

3-Cafe Pharoah: Good showing in Saudi just a head behind Country Grammer. He made a mid-move up the rail to put him in good position and was grinding down on the winner late. If Country Grammer for some reason doesn’t fire, this horse has a shot.

1-Algiers: Draws near the outside, but he has overcome that recently with a 6-length score in the Maktoum Challenge Round 1, which he followed up with a facile score in Round 2. This will be a first attempt in against top-class foes, but certainly has an affinity for the local strip. Post allows him clear sailing and he has been pointed towards this race. Not without a chance to run well here.

2-Bendoog: What to do with a local horse who has been playing the bridesmaid (groomsman?) recently behind several of these, but could do so again just because of the nature of the beast. Sire Gun Runner was a runner-up in this race and, at 50-1, you wouldn’t be unhappy if he manages to eek out another workmanlike performance.

Wager:

Exacta Part-Wheel: 4 over 2,3,1,9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:37 AM

Race of the Week: Dubai World Cup | Saturday, March 25, 2023

March 23, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
One of the world's most important races on dirt, the Dubai World Cup anchors a 9-race program from Meydan Racecourse on Saturday. Post time for the first race will be 7:30 am ET with the main event slated to break at 12:35 pm ET. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet will offer full-card wagering on all the festivities, beginning with early bird wagering on Friday for Saturday.

Field Depth:
Defending champion COUNTRY GRAMMER returns to the scene of his greatest victory and represents the American interests. He re-matches with his recent Group 1 Saudi Cup conqueror PANTHALASSA from Japan as well as last year's Group 1 Saudi Cup winner EMBLEM ROAD from Saudi Arabia. Group 1 Japan Cup winner VELA AZUL is new to this cast. Group 1 and Group 2 Maktoum Challenge winners SALUTE THE SOLDIER and ALIGIERS lead the local UAE contingent.

Pace:
PANTHALASSA led wire-to-wire in the Saudi Cup and typically has intent on the front. BENDOOG was able to hit the front early in the Maktoum Challenge preps.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-ALGIERS: Leveled off smartly in winning the Maktoum Challenge Round 2 and looked fantastic coming home. The 6-year-old has never been in better form. He's proven over the distance and track, and his skipping the Maktoum Challenge Round 3 was noticeable as that race looked far more pedestrian. Note his pursuer BENDOOG since has come back to validate the form.

2-BENDOOG: Game in a pair of Maktoum Challenge Rounds when second-best each time. Has some pace presence about him and notably doesn't buckle when headed. Son of Gun Runner is reliable and will have his name called a long way. Jockey Christophe Soumillon won this race back-to-back with Thunder Snow in 2018-'19.

3-CAFE PHAROAH: Japan's only success in this race came with Victoire Pisa in 2011, but that nation makes up 7 of the 15 entrants this year. All-or-nothing sort has won 7 of 14, but has been out of the money 6 times. Narrow third in the Saudi Cup behind a pair of these was promising, but his best efforts have been shorter than this. Sire American Pharoah won the US Triple Crown, of course, but damsire More Than Ready tends to get more miler types, such has this.

4-COUNTRY GRAMMER: Seeks to join 2018-'19 winner Thunder Snow as the only 2-time Dubai World Cup winners. A top-2 finish would jump him over Arrogate as the highest-earning North American Thoroughbred of all-time. Returns to this race on the same form line as last year, exiting a second-place finish in the Saudi Cup; but notably has more foundation in his current for this year than last. Jockey Frankie Dettori has 4 DWC wins and can secure that title for himself with a fifth, surpassing Jerry Bailey. Bob Baffert has won this race 4 times, second only to the 9 by Saeed bin Suroor. He'll leave from a very tough post-14 draw, however.

5-CROWN PRIDE: 4-year-old Japanese charge hasn't lacked big-stage appearances, finishing 13th in last year's Kentucky Derby and fifth most recently in the Saudi Cup. But he's lost 5 straight since starting his career 3-for-4, culminating with a victory at Meydan in the 2023 UAE Derby. He's proven over the track and environment, perhaps capable of a wake-up.

6-EMBLEM ROAD: The glass slipper didn't fit Cinderella a second time in last month's Saudi Cup, finishing sixth in his title defense after a 99-1 parimutuel stunner in that race in 2022. This will be only his second trip outside of Saudi Arabia, and the previous netted only a fifth-place finish in a French Group 3 (albeit on turf).

7-GEOGLYPH: Fourth (beaten only 1-1/4 lengths) in the Saudi Cup, this Japanese turf runner showed out well against several of these last time while transitioning to dirt. Son of top American sprinter Drefong has proven himself over this 10F distance. Expect an overlay price.

8-JUN LIGHT BOLT: Disappointing seventh in the Saudi Cup when he snapped a 3-race winning streak from Japan. Beaten 5 lengths that day by countrymate and DWC re-matcher Crown Pride, a horse he had beaten at home previously. Jockey Ryan Moore seeks one of the few worldwide trophies to escape him.

9-PANTHALASSA: Japan's front-running winner of the Saudi Cup for Yoshito Yahagi, a trainer that must be respected on the international stage. This 6-year-old won the Group 1 Dubai Turf on this same card a season ago, so the pomp and circumstance likely won't be of consequence. Much depends on how hard the other pace players come after him this time after witnessing the theft over 9F last out.

10-REMORSE: Sixth a year ago in the Dubai World Cup behind COUNTRY GRAMMER et al, he did not factor in either of the Maktoum Challenge Rounds this winter -- beaten 8-1/2 and 7-3/4 lengths. He's out of the Wesley Ward-trained dasher Jealous Again and bred to be far more effective at trips shorter than this.

11-SALUTE THE SOLDIER: Won the Group 1 Maktoum Challenge Round 3 in grinding fashion over this distance, but was a surprise winner who benefitted greatly from the absence of ALGIERS, who sat that race out. ALGIERS flicked him away by more than 11 lengths in their prior matchup. Now age 8, he was fifth in the 2021 Dubai World Cup when in better career form.

12-SUPER CORINTO: Most lightly raced member of the field with 8 starts, he's made a home at Gulfstream Park this winter after competing in South America the bulk of his career. Son of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver appears fast enough to contest early lead if asked to by jockey Hector Berrios. Has trained fast for this in recent weeks since last racing December 8. Big task to go 1-1/4 miles off works alone.

13-TO KEYNES: Second start outside Japan for this son of Keeneland's Blue Grass winner Sinister Minister. The first bid didn't go well with an eighth-place finish in the 2022 Saudi Cup. Exits a hard-fought prep second at home vs. DWC rival USHBA TESORO. Matches up evenly with countrymates JUN LIGHT BOLT and CROWN PRIDE. Like the move to renowned international jockey Oisin Murphy.

14-USHBA TESORO: Hottest horse in the field brings a 4-race winning streak from Japan. For a colt who took 7 tries to break his maiden, he has blossomed later in life and now gets his biggest stage at age 6. Fought off TO KEYNES by a half-length 24 days ago.

15-VELA AZUL: Last year's Group 1 Japan Cup hero on turf will try to add a second worldwide showcase trophy ... this time on dirt. It took until start No. 21 before he was tested against Group stakes competition at home. His success was credited with a move from dirt to turf, but now he must prove the reverse. His follow-up to the Japan Cup was a deflating 10th in the Group 1 Arima Kinen, also on grass.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
COUNTRY GRAMMER has won this race before and hasn't finished worse than second in his last 9 starts.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
GEOGLYPH matched up well with the name hitters in Saudi Arabia and likely will be overlooked.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win ALGIERS. $10 exacta part-wheel ALGIERS and COUNTRY GRAMMER over GEOGLYPH ($20).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:38 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Jeff Ruby Day Pick 4/Pick 5 | Saturday

March 23, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Turfway Park card is the track’s annual showcase, headlined by Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown hopefuls in the Grade 3 $700,000 Jeff Ruby. The entire jackpot pick 6 sequence will be stakes offerings, which therein includes an all-stakes pick 5 and all-stakes pick 4.

Turfway Park | Race 7 | $250K Animal Kingdom
#4 Eye Witness has speed short or long, and out of a half-sister to top-class dasher Sharp Humor, there’s no doubt Wesley Ward can get this one razor-sharp for the turn-back to 6 furlongs. #7 New York Thunder is the obvious other top player off back-to-back wins to open his career at Gulfstream on turf and Tapeta. Race is laced with layoff horses, so the time away not a concern for both.

Turfway Park | Race 8 | $250K Rushaway
Strong third by #3 Worthington 2 starts back on turf was underscored when top-class Major Dude and Candidate came back to run 1-2 in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes. Draw a line through the debacle at Tampa and he’s the horse to beat for a Mike Maker barn that excels in Turfway stakes. #12 Moon Landing had a poorly timed ride in the John Battaglia Memorial and makes a huge jockey upgrade to John Velazquez; threatens from tough post. Deep race also includes Rachel Alexandra’s kid bro #1 Itzos, ever-dangerous Gulfstream turf-to-Turfway-synthetic mover #4 Santorini for Todd Pletcher and the sharp local debut winner #9 Midnight Rising. Get some depth in this high-quality set of options.

Turfway Park | Race 9 | $250K Latonia
With a hot pace projected, I’m looking for closers to benefit, namely #2 Candy Raid and #8 Kate’s Kingdom. Candy Raid (20-1 ML) ran the race of her life in a blowout win in the Bourbonette Oaks on this card a year ago and could rebound in pricy style off a dull last effort. Kate’s Kingdom upgraded to Irad Ortiz Jr. off a series of solid local stakes efforts here all winter. She’ll be trucking late. I’m rolling with this late-running pair and taking my chances.

Turfway Park | Race 10 | $300K Kentucky Cup Classic
Again we’re looking at a hot pace, especially for 1-1/8 miles on Tapeta. #4 Leblon (15-1 ML) just feels like the prototypical Mike Maker veteran claim that runs out a stakes streak. His two Turfway efforts since the claim are big improvements over prior form and set him up for an upset on the rise. His pedigree is long-winded and we’ve seen these Maker claims excel the farther they go over the years. #9 Santin is a class standout from his turf form; we’ll see how that translates to Tapeta. His bullet work over the track gives some confidence, but he was beaten as the favorite in his 2022 return off a layoff.

Turfway Park | Race 11 | $300K Bourbonette Oaks
#5 Botanical will be one of the shortest prices on the card off 3 consecutive locals win by nearly 22 combined lengths. Most will land on a single here of the Brad Cox trainee. I do have an interest in #6 Always at Ease (30-1 ML), however. She’s been running shorter than her pedigree suggest and could love the stretch-out. She’s by versatile sire Twirling Candy and her damsire Hold Me Back won the Spiral here over 9F in his heyday. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is known for blowing up the toteboard. Get this one home over the filly everyone else singles and you’re looking at a big-time payoff. At a minimum, look at the exacta intra-race.

Turfway Park | Race 12 | $700K Jeff Ruby
Watching his 2 local races this winter has me all over #11 Wadsworth with absolutely no hesitation. The Brad Cox trainee was sharp enough to take advantage of the rail in a romping maiden win flashing speed; then professional enough to settle, overcome traffic trouble for a half-mile and then just coast home with ease in allowance company. Think he wins this for fun and is the single. #1 Major Dude would be the alternate consideration, but I'm flying single.

The Tickets:

Pick 6: 4,7 with 3,12,1,4,9 with 2,8 with 4,9 with 5,9 with 11 = $16 for $.20 play

Pick 5: 3,12,1,4,9 with 2,8 with 4,9 with 5,9 with 11 = $20 for $.50 play

Pick 4: 2,8 with 4,9 with 5,9 with 11 = $4 for $.50 play

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:40 AM

Dubai World Cup Day: Need-to-Know

March 23, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
Race Date: Saturday, March 25, 2023
Location: Meydan Racecourse
Total Races: 9
Total Purses: $30.5 million (US)
Advance Wagering: available Friday
First Post: 7:30AM ET
Dubai World Cup Post: 12:35PM ET
Top American Interests: Country Grammer (Dubai World Cup), Super Corinto (Dubai World Cup), Gunite (Golden Shaheen), CZ Rocket (Golden Shaheen), Hopkins (Golden Shaheen), Sibelius (Golden Shaheen), Shirl’s Speight (Dubai Turf), Cazadero (Al Quoz Sprint), Worcester (UAE Derby), Ah Geez (UAE Derby)

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Full Schedule:
Race 1 | 7:30AM ET | G1 Dubai Kahayla Classic
Race 2 | 8:05AM ET | G2 Godolphin Mile
Race 3 | 8:40AM ET | G2 Dubai Gold Cup
Race 4 | 9:15AM ET | G1 Al Quoz Sprint
Race 5 | 9:50AM ET | G2 UAE Derby
Race 6 | 10:25AM ET | G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen
Race 7 | 11:10AM ET | G1 Dubai Turf
Race 8 | 12:00PM ET | G1 Dubai Sheema Classic
Race 9 | 12:35PM ET | G1 Dubai World Cup

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Wagering Notes:
--- Exacta, trifecta, superfecta all races
--- Rolling daily doubles, pick 3s throughout card
--- Pick 6 begins in Race 4
--- Pick 4 begins in Race 6

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Group 1 $12 million Dubai World Cup // 1-1/4 miles // Race 9 // 12:35 pm ET
1 – (post 13) Algiers (James Doyle // Simon Crisford)
2 – (post 7) Bendoog (Christophe Soumillon // Bhupat Seemar)
3 – (post 10) Cafe Pharoah (Joao Moreira // Noriyuji Hori)
4 – (post 14) Country Grammer (Frankie Dettori // Bob Baffert)
5 – (post 12) Crown Pride (Damian Lane // Koichi Shintani)
6 – (post 2) Emblem Road (Adel Al Furaydi // Ahmad Abdulwahid)
7 – (post 9) Geoglyph (Christophe Lemaire // Tetsuya Kimura )
8 – (post 3) Jun Light Bolt (Ryan Moore // Yasuo Tomomichi)
9 – (post 15) Panthalassa (Yutaka Yoshida // Yoshito Yahagi)
10 – (post 1) Remorse (Tadhg O’Shea // Bhupat Seemar)
11 – (post 4) Salute the Soldier (Adrie de Vries // Fawzi Nass)
12 – (post 11) Super Corinto (Hector Berrios // Amador Sanchez)
13 – (post 6) TO Keynes (Oisin Murphy // Daisuke Takayanagi)
14 – (post 8) Ushba Tesoro (Yuga Kawada // Noboru Takagi)
15 – (post 5) Vela Azul (Cristian Demuro // Kunihiko Watanabe)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:41 AM

Jeff Ruby: Meet the Contenders

March 21, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Grade 3 $700,000 Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park is a max 100-40-30-20-10 points qualifier for the Kentucky Derby. Last year’s race spring-boarded Kentucky Derby upsetter Rich Strike.
Let’s meet the 2023 Jeff Ruby contenders.

#1 Major Dude (Irad Ortiz Jr. // Todd Pletcher)
Graded stakes winner on grass at ages 2 and 3, he’s ascended into one of Gulfstream’s top turf sophomores this winner. The Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy winner began his career a winner on dirt at Monmouth, so there’s some pace versatility. Pletcher is a 3-time winner of this race in 2001, 2005 and then 2014 on synthetic. Trainer Pletcher’s wins on the 2023 trail already include the Sam F. Davis, Tampa Bay Derby and Fountain of Youth.

#2 Scoobie Quando (Luis Machado // Ben Colebrook)
Made an immediately splash winning the Turfway Prevue Stakes in his career debut on January 7. The son of Uncle Mo followed with a pair of runner-ups, including a rallying move in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes behind return rival Congruent. Trainer Colebrook’s win on the 2023 trail already includes the Gotham.

#3 Event Detail (Walter Rodriguez // Paulo Lobo)
Strong local allowance winner in late January looks to rebound off a disappointing effort in Oaklawn’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. Beat only 1 rival in the Rebel, but has been a vastly better performer in his tries over the Tapeta vs. dirt. Son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup winner City of Light will be tested for distance.

#4 Funtastic Again (Geraldo Corrales // Wesley Ward)
Romping Turfway winter winner in allowance company as well as the Leonatus Stakes, both at a mile trip. Trained locally for past 2 months with this spot intended. Sire Funtastic won Monmouth’s Grade 1 United Nations at 1-3/8 miles, giving him pedigree for the trip. Trainer Ward got his first Jeff Ruby win in 2021 with Like the King.

#5 Maker’s Candy (Umberto Rispoli // Mike Maker)
Lot of firsts here as the New York-bred faces open company for the first time, tries 2 turns for the first time, graded stakes for the first time and a venture away from Aqueduct for the first time. Exceptional 2 starts back with Lasix in breaking his maiden, but can’t use the medication here and carries 8 more pounds than that day. But always fear this barn here: trainer Maker has 6 wins in this race, most of any in the synthetic era at Turfway, the last of which came in 2020.

#6 Baby Billy (Joe Talamo // Jack Sisterson)
After 4 unsuccessful dirt tries to open his career, found paydirt on turf last out at Gulfstream Park in maiden company. Takes a big step up Saturday after being uncompetitive in his only other stakes try in the Mucho Macho Man. Sire Gormley was a Santa Anita Derby winner at this 1-1/8 miles trip.

#7 Bluebirds Over (Edgard Zayas // Saffie Joseph Jr.)
Tapeta ace as a juvenile, winning over the surface in his Gulfstream Park maiden debut and his follow-up start in Woodbine’s Grade 3 Grey Stakes. Enters the Ruby in the prime, second-off-the-layoff form cycle. Showed early speed and tired a bit late in the Colonial Liam at Gulfstream on turf March 4 and wheels back on 21 days’ rest. Sire English Channel, a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner and sire of long-winded grass stars like War Like Goddess, The Pizza Man and Channel Maker, provides stamina influences.

#8 Congruent (Sonny Leon // Antonio Sano)
Despite his 16-1 odds, absolutely looked dominant in the local prep at 1-1/16 miles, the John Battaglia Memorial. His Gulfstream winter turf form carried over, which may be good news for a few others in here. He was no match for Major Dude in either the Dania Beach or Kitten’s Joy prior at Gulfstream. Son of Tapit returned to his South Florida base between starts. Jockey Sonny Leon won last year’s Kentucky Derby on Rich Strike and hopes lightning strikes twice via Turfway.

#9 Escapologist (Alex Achard // Kenny McPeek)
Tried dirt 5 times to no avail before finally graduating the maiden ranks March 1 at Fair Grounds. Colt by Good Magic was beaten 7 lengths on dirt to Ruby rival Point Proven last fall at Churchill. Trainer McPeek notched his first Jeff Ruby score last year with Tiz the Bomb.

#10 Two Phil’s (Jareth Loveberry // Larry Rivelli)
Multiple dirt stakes winner, including the Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill last year, he evacuates the rugged Fair Grounds trail after a pair of very solid showings. He was second to Brad Cox’s Instant Coffee in the Lecomte and then third to that one’s stablemate Angel of Empire in the Risen Star. His papa Hard Spun won this race in 2007 when it was called the Lane’s End Stakes and contested over Polytrack (synthetic surface now is Tapeta).

#11 Wadsworth (Chris Landeros // Brad Cox)
Speaking of Brad Cox, it wouldn’t be a Derby prep without at least one of his runners. Cox’s wins on the 2023 trail already include Smarty Jones, Lecomte, Withers and Risen Star. Wadsworth has been penciled into this spot since an impressive Feb. 11 allowance win, his second of the winter at Turfway. The Quality Road colt held good company lines in dirt maiden races at 2, but has blossomed on the Tapeta. Dam Dickinson was a Grade 1 Jenny Wiley winner and excelled at middle distances on turf.

#12 Point Proven (John Velazquez // Todd Pletcher)
Just 1 win in 5 starts to this point while racing all on dirt, the pace presser by Gun Runner has a difficult post to overcome for his style. Same female family as Shaniko, a dirt horse Pletcher brought to Turfway to win the 2001 Kentucky Cup Classic in the Polytrack era. Pletcher is a 3-time winner of this race in 2001, 2005 and then 2014 on synthetic. Trainer Pletcher’s wins on the 2023 trail already include the Sam F. Davis, Tampa Bay Derby and Fountain of Youth.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:43 AM

Louisiana Derby: Meet the Contenders

March 20, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Let’s Meet the Contenders for Saturday’s Grade 2 $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

#1 Shopper’s Revenge (Ricardo Santana Jr. // Steve Asmussen)
Impeccably bred son of Tapit and 2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Stopchargingmaria steps up into stakes company for the first time. Asmussen is a 4-time Louisiana Derby winner, including last year with Epicenter. He shares the race’s all-time wins record with Todd Pletcher. Shopper’s Revenge left his home confines at Oaklawn and takes on runners at Fair Grounds on a circuit that has been stronger than OP in several head-to-head matchups in 2023.

#2 Instant Coffee (Luis Saez // Brad Cox)
Joins Kentucky Derby early favorite Forte on a short list of horses who have won major stakes races at ages 2 and 3 in this year’s crop. Late-running son of Bolt d’Oro purposely bypassed the Risen Star after winning the Lecomte, looking for a fresh fire in the Louisiana Derby. His 3 career victories are most in the field and his $442,815 also leads the way. Cox won the 2020 Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou.

#3 Curly Jack (Edgar Morales // Tom Amoss)
Runner-up to Instant Coffee in November’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he disappointed in a distant, eighth-place return run in the Risen Star Stakes. Son of Good Magic has previously followed up the two worst performances of his career with bounce-back, second-place finishes in stakes races. Second-highest career earner with $421,589 banked.

#4 Sun Thunder (Brian Hernandez Jr. // Kenny McPeek)
Risen Star Stakes runner-up assumes top alumni status from that race as its winner Angel of Empire awaits the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Nice progression of 2-turn routes from 1 mile to 1-1/16 miles to 1-1/8 miles to Saturday’s 1-3/16 miles. Maternal grandson of 2007 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Maryfield. McPeek saddled 2002 Louisiana Derby winner Repent. Hernandez won this race in 2017 aboard Girvin.

#5 Disarm (Joel Rosario // Steve Asmussen)
No-match second to Arkansas Derby hopeful Two Eagles River in his 3-year-old return try at Oaklawn in February, but a solid-enough return for the impressive Saratoga maiden breaker after about 6 months. Asmussen is a 4-time Louisiana Derby winner, including last year with Epicenter – ridden by Rosario. Asmussen shares the race’s all-time wins record with Todd Pletcher. Rosario seeks a first-ever three-peat in the Louisiana Derby winner’s circle following victories aboard Epicenter and Hot Rod Charlie. With little pace expected, he could show more interest than many here.

#6 Kingsbarns (Flavien Prat // Todd Pletcher)
The most lightly raced entrant in the field has only 2 prior starts, but looks to have a pace advantage as one of the few front-runners expected. This $800,000 son of Uncle Mo has pressed-and-pounced to a perfect 2-for-2 record so far. He’ll be tested for class; note his ALW runner-up last out returned to finish 10th in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher is a 4-time Louisiana Derby-winning trainer, sharing the race’s record with Steve Asmussen. Jockey Flavien Prat flies in from California for the first-time mount.

#7 Cagliostro (Christian Torres // Cherie DeVaux)
Hit the front only to be nailed on the line by Louisiana Derby rival Denington in a very strong allowance race on the Risen Star Day undercard at Fair Grounds. Oaklawn Park’s 2023 leading jockey Christian Torres takes the mount for the first time and visits from Hot Springs as Brian Hernandez Jr. jumps saddles to pilot Sun Thunder. If used aggressively, he could be more forwardly placed against this group than he shows in previous starts.

#8 Single Ruler (David Cohen // Keith Desormeaux)
After an 18-1 upset in Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes with Confidence Game, trainer Keith Desormeaux aims for his second trail surprise in a month’s time. The Risen Star’s late-running, fifth-place finisher has just 1 win in 6 lifetime starts, but has picked up his game in his last 2 starts since adding blinkers. This barn orchestrated a 135-1 upset over this track in the 2013 Risen Star with I’ve Struck A Nerve, so you never say never.

#9 Tapit’s Conquest (Manny Franco // Brad Cox)
After a wide, fourth-place run in the Risen Star Stakes, jockey Florent Geroux will jump off this horse to ride stablemate Jace’s Road. Enter Aqueduct’s current leading rider Manny Franco, whose rather bare Fair Grounds ledger reads 6 unsuccessful mounts in 2019 on a single-day visit. He was a fairly live 5-1 on the tote in the Risen Star and could be a much higher price this time. Cox won the 2020 Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou.

#10 Denington (Junior Alvarado // Kenny McPeek)
Risen Star Day undercard allowance winner seeks redemption on the Brad Cox barn after having lost in previous tries to that outfit’s Instant Coffee, Tapit’s Conquest and Victory Formation. Like Disarm, he’s a son of 2016 Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner. Junior Alvarado, in town to ride Pegasus World Cup winner Art Collector in Saturday’s New Orleans Classic, takes the mount for the first time. McPeek saddled 2002 Louisiana Derby winner Repent.

#11 Jace’s Road (Florent Geroux // Brad Cox)
Even in skipping this race with Risen Star winner Angel of Empire, this is one of 3 Louisiana Derby hopefuls for champion trainer Brad Cox, who won the 2020 Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou. Jace’s Road showed pace in a slowly run edition of the Gun Runner Stakes to open the Louisiana Derby series in December, wiring the field. He’s expected to try similar tactics here with Geroux opting to ride over Tapit’s Conquest. He was reluctant to get into the pace battle at Oaklawn with California blazer Arabian Knight and was left empty chasing in the Southwest. Improved tactics, a rider change and no pace rivals of that repute can help to right the ship.

#12 Baseline Beater (Corey Lanerie // Neil Pessin)
He’s the only non-Triple Crown nominee in the field and likely the longest shot on the tote. The Risen Star Day undercard maiden winner drops far, far back as per his norm and can be expected to do so again from the widest post draw. He’s 0-2 in head-to-head matchups with Single Ruler, who also will be a long price Saturday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #0

#5 Hoosier Philly	She has a long way to come forward to turn the tables on Pretty Mischievous from the Rachel Alexandra here last month, but she's obviously capable of something better. I don't think she was given a real chance when they somehow got buried behind horses when facing just five others. Guessing she has some room to improve with that race under her belt and a cleaner go today.
#3 Pretty Mischievous	Tactical type should be in a great spot early on while tracking the pace again, and she has not done a whole lot wrong through five starts, especially having avenged her only career loss to Hoosier Philly.
#1 Southlawn	She rolled what felt like an okay group in that allowance score last time out, and believers can hope she really just turned a corner into her 3-year-old season. Something like her last keeps her right in the mix, but she has a lot of work to do to repeat it with this bunch.
Race Summary	Hoosier Philly should be a bit better price today off her first loss, and I can't imagine she's going to find another brutal trip in another small field. She has to prove she came forward off the 2-year-old form, but I'll bet she does just that today.

Fair Grounds - Race #12

#7 Cagliostro	He's biting off a big piece while stepping up with just a maiden win to his credit, but he has a running style that I love locally, as he's able to make these effortless-looking advances on the far turn and grind on from there. Been a big believer in this guy -- let's see what he's made of today.
#2 Instant Coffee	No concern about him skipping the local middle leg, as the barn signaled that was the plan all along after the Lecomte, and they went out and won the Risen Star anyway with another. His only lifetime loss came behind the 2-year-old champ and class leader Forte.
#9 Tapit's Conquest	Think he's got a sneaky chance in here after making a long rally when wide in that last one, and he's now making the third start of his campaign, maybe giving him a chance to sustain that bid better here.
Race Summary	I'm all in on Cagliostro to end the day -- he's either good enough to win this or he's not, but I'm going to grab what should be an appealing mid-range price to find out. I think both of his local races are better on video than they are on paper, and I'll be looking for him to drag himself into the game past the half mile pole.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

#7 Mr. Wireless	He has been a bit unlucky to lose those last two, as he has turned in a couple big efforts after wide trips in both. Maybe he's just a hanger, but I think he has as big a claim on this as anyone outside the chalk, and the price will be right.
#2 Art Collector	He should work out a good trip if he can settle again just behind a couple pace players drawn in and outside of him, and the show horse from his Pegasus win came back to land the Santa Anita Handicap earlier this month. He's prone to occasional clunkers, so I wouldn't want a short price off the big try last out.
#8 Pioneer of Medina	He beat the top choice in a stretch battle last time out, and he has the right style to sit a good one again here while spying the pace early on. Capable, but prefer others.
Race Summary	Mr. Wireless should be a decent, mid-range kind of price here, and he has been knocking on the door with these in recent starts. New face Art Collector wins this with a repeat of his Pegasus score, but I don't trust him to run all the way back to it...and what to do with Happy American off the dud?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:44 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#7 THUNDERIAN (5-1)	Good try off layoff as first-time gelding and first time on dirt.
#5 B WEST (9-5)	Set pace, faded in lane, won prior two non-stakes at one mile.
#1 CHELONIAN (9-2)	Hit board in four straight at this level, moves outside in.
Race Summary	THUNDERIAN, hard ridden throughout, got up to finish third behind the two favorites in a long sprint at Aqueduct. He steps up in class for his second start with Lasix and gets pace to run at. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#1 BERNIE’S ON FIRE (3-1	Ranged up 3-wide, led briefly before trouble arose, finished third.
#4 FORTH (5-2)	Sprung pair of photo-finish upsets before latest, drops below claim level.
#6 MANOLETE (5-1)	Parx invader, first or second in 29 of 75 starts, was claimed again at age 9.
Race Summary	BERNIE’S ON FIRE was bet down to odds-on favoritism after he was a vet scratch in his scheduled return. He raced close-up as always but was carried out 6-wide and finished third. He draws the rail and looks to enhance his 6-13 record at 6F. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#5 JOHNNYFRENCHFRI (5-2)	Changed tactics, fired best shot yet to go 2-2 at this distance.
#6 PRIDE OF PAYTON (6-1)	Improved with Lasix, appears rounding to another good race.
#3 HELDISH (6-1)	Multiple stakes-paced as a 2-year-old, no factor in seasonal debut.
Race Summary	JOHNNYFRENCHFRI, the only three-time winner in the field, rated kindly and drew off to win with second-time Lasix. He returns on similar rest and seeks his third in a row at 7F. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

PURCHASE

Fair Grounds - Race 12	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 12-14) $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 12-15) / Daily Double
Stakes • 1 3/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 99 • Purse: $1,000,000 • Post: 5:42P
TWINSPIRES.COM LOUISIANA DERBY - GRADE 2 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * INSTANT COFFEE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SUN THUNDER: Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating. KINGSBARNS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SHOPPER'S REVENGE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. TAPIT'S CONQUEST: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	INSTANT COFFEE	2/1	6/1
4	SUN THUNDER	5/1	7/1
6	KINGSBARNS	6/1	7/1
1	SHOPPER'S REVENGE	12/1	8/1
9	TAPIT'S CONQUEST	10/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	KINGSBARNS	6	6/1	Stalker	83	92	102.8	88.4	75.9
11	JACE'S ROAD	11	12/1	Stalker	98	90	93.6	74.5	62.5
3	CURLY JACK	3	12/1	Stalker	95	82	78.5	81.4	71.4
1	SHOPPER'S REVENGE	1	12/1	Stalker	90	93	77.8	89.4	78.4
5	DISARM	5	10/1	Stalker	88	84	49.3	80.6	67.1
4	SUN THUNDER	4	5/1	Trailer	92	89	78.2	87.4	80.9
9	TAPIT'S CONQUEST	9	10/1	Trailer	88	91	76.7	88.6	79.6
10	DENINGTON	10	12/1	Trailer	93	91	73.4	86.2	70.2
2	INSTANT COFFEE	2	2/1	Trailer	94	91	73.1	88.6	84.6
7	CAGLIOSTRO	7	12/1	Trailer	83	88	66.8	84.1	64.6
12	BASELINE BEATER	12	20/1	Trailer	90	87	56.3	78.8	59.3
8	SINGLE RULER	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	86	77.0	82.7	63.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:45 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington ParkPURCHASE

Remington Park - Race 1	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Daily Double / Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 63 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 6:00P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DEJANU: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Clas s Rating at the distance/surface. BP VALIANT EAGLE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
8	DEJANU	3/1	5/2
5	BP VALIANT EAGLE	4/1	3/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	VF SIX GUNS	1	10/1	Fast	43	37	3.5	0.0	0.0
2	VR EL 440	2	12/1	Slow	0	0	6.5	0.0	0.0
4	DU YOU RUN RUN RUN	4	6/1	Average	0	0	5.8	0.0	0.0
5	BP VALIANT EAGLE	5	4/1	Average	68	65	5.3	0.0	0.0
7	IMA REBA	7	5/1	Fast/Trouble-prone	65	52	2.7	0.0	0.0
8	DEJANU	8	3/1	Average	76	69	5.1	0.0	0.0
9	BV BABY I LIED	9	15/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: VALCORONA (8/1) [Jockey: Esqueda Cristian R - Trainer: Charette-Hill Stacy], CJ TEMPTING PILOTO (15/1) [Jockey: Belloc Jr Joseph - Trainer: Gonzales III James J], HIDE YER CRAZEE (15/1) [Jockey: Torres Jorge - Trainer: Crawford

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2023, 07:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $9200 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 BLACK MESA 5/2
# 1 RITE ON 9/5
# 5 AISLINN 8/1

BLACK MESA looks to be a respectable contender. Gamblers should note that this racer runs on Lasix today. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the midpoint of the competition. RITE ON - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Willoughby running at this distance are the strongest in this group of horses. Looks formidable versus this group and ought to be one of the early speedsters. AISLINN - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the difference to a major improvement.