Tuesday 3/14/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Kristpicks

cheltenham festival - tuesday, march 14, 2023

- daily selections for march 14 -

race 1:
1 - chasing fire 20-1
10 - marine nationale 9-2
14 - tahmuras 10-1

race 2:
3 - el fabiole 6-4
7 - saint roi 9-1
6 - jonbon 13-8

race 3:
9 - into overdrive 15-2 - best bet
15 - monbeg genius 9-1
7 - the goffer 14-1

race 4:
1 - constitution hill 4-11
5 - state man 10-3
2 - i like to move it 20-1

race 5:
6 - marie's rock 9-4
5 - love envoi 9-1
2 - echoes in the rain 12-1

race 6:
18 - shared 33-1 - longshot
22 - romancero le dun 40-1
9 - samuel spade 20-1

race 7:
1 - chemical energy 13-2
7 - minella crooner 7-1
4 - gaillard du mesnil 10-11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Mahoning Valley Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Little Rons Rocket 8-5 J S Radosevich Y Aviles
2 #7 Question Authority 5-1 J P Bernardini N Vigil
3 #1 Uncaptured Pulse 4-1 J Urieta Y Aviles
4 #6 Dark Temptress 5-2 W D Cowans J A Bracho
5 #2 Judge Head 4-1 J A Radosevich L R Rivera
6 #1 Offtheroadagain 4-1 E R Reed A Gonzalez
7 #5 Come See About It 5-2 L E Smith G Rodriguez
8 #4 Windy Lu Who 9-5 S L Anderson J A Bracho

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Parx Racing Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Island Belle 7-2 L C Linder, Jr. D Haddock
2 #8 Big Brown Shoes 5-1 L Simon J Bisono
3 #6 Hoopla 2-1 R Mosco D Haddock
4 #4 Golden Wildcat 9-5 E Padilla-Preciado L D Rivera
5 #1 Big Ambition 2-1 J Ness R Silvera
6 #3 Catalon 8-5 M A Rodriguez L M Ocasio
7 #4 Cup of Life 3-1 W J Hogan Jr. F Gonzalez, Jr.
8 #5 Go East 2-1 J T Servis A Adorno
9 #5 Touring Maryanne 7-2 M V Pino M J Sanchez
10 #2 Dreaming of Gerry 5-2 R Mosco S Gonzalez
11 #10 Angelus Warrior 6-1 J Ness R Silvera

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Charity Water 3-1 N Summers M T Fuentes, Jr.
2 #5 Nice Work 2-1 D Cappellucci L A Fuentes
3 #7 Indian Excellence 2-1 M Valdez-Cabral, Jr. F Amparan
4 #5 Friendly Shuffle 7-5 D Cappellucci L A Fuentes
5 #2 Sea of Indy 4-1 B G Hone E P Gomez
6 #3 Im Still Thirsty 2-1 S Gonzalez F Valdez
7 #1 Bye Bye Bobby 9-5 T W Fincher L A Fuentes
8 #5 Ar Ya Weegee 3-1 G W Cross J Carreno
9 #8 Lake Ethel 6-1 C T Lambert A J Juarez, Jr.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Turf Paradise Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #7 Heartache Tonite 5-2 M M Fales L A Valenzuela
2 #3 Skedaddle's Legacy 6-1 E Martinez A Marti
3 #5 Warren's Memorable 4-1 R G Valerio H Hernandez
4 #4 Katar 2-1 R K Owens D P Vergara
5 #4 Older Brother 5-2 J Rosales A Valdes
6 #3 Pure Rocket 5-1 D L McFarlane K Lopez
7 #6 Indy's Star 5-2 V Belvoir H Hernandez
8 #3 Wild Arch 2-1 J Silva, Jr. A Arboleda

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Will Rogers Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Blueskiesandangels 1-1 H R Ashford, Jr. K Roman
2 #1 Magnet and Steel 2-1 J A Williams T L Collier
3 #6 Camanche River 9-5 A Gladd C Kimes
4 #5 Dominant Okie 7-2 S E Young F Wethey Jr.
5 #5 Bendelene 9-5 J Padilla G Mora
6 #5 Big Northern River 8-5 A Gladd A Birzer
7 #1 Stolen Kisses 5-2 J A Williams L D Goncalves
8 #6 Paydiem 6-1 J R Caldwell T L Collier
9 #9 Heroic Song 7-5 S E Young F Wethey Jr.
10 #6 Ghost Hero 5-2 J J Gelner F Wethey Jr.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spot Plays March 14
Brisnet Staff

For Tuesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Mahoning Valley (1st) Mixter Jensen, 6-1
(6th) Captivating Art, 9-2

Parx Racing (2nd) Jovial, 9-2
(11th) Jarlian, 6-1

Turf Paradise (2nd) Rainbow Stew, 4-1
(6th) Pure Rocket, 5-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MAHONING VALLEY TIPS - TUESDAY, MARCH 14, 2023



RACE #1 MAHONING VALLEY $33,700 Allowance
1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 1 Little Rons Rocket Y Aviles
PLACE 5-2 2 Smoocher E Barbaran
SHOW 6-1 5 Mixter Jensen E Paucar
WILD CARD 7-2 3 Animo Roberto M Cedillo

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Playing Ball A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 6 The Gospel of Mark C Keiser

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX



RACE #2 MAHONING VALLEY $4,000 Claiming
6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 4 Holy Saint K Gonzalez
PLACE 8-1 3 Ruling Empire A I Diaz
SHOW 5-1 7 Question Authority N Vigil
WILD CARD 3-1 5 Seminole Justice G Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 2 Percentage L E Perez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Tentwelvefourteen M Cedillo

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX



RACE #3 MAHONING VALLEY $5,000 Claiming
1 Mile 70 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 7 Giles Y Yaranga
PLACE 7-2 6 Perfetto K Gonzalez
SHOW 5-1 4 Klaatu B Tapara
WILD CARD 9-2 3 Blame It On Eddie F Salazar Becerra

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 1 Uncaptured Pulse Y Aviles
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Algorix M Cedillo

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX



RACE #4 MAHONING VALLEY $7,500 Claiming
6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:03 PM ET

#6 DARK TEMPTRESS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 Dark Temptress J A Bracho
PLACE 5-1 2 Heidi T M Cedillo
SHOW 4-1 5 Myrrh K Gonzalez
WILD CARD 6-1 8 Dontlosethatnumber Y Aviles

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 1 Little Bird Flash A Bracho
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 New York Banker L A Batista

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX



RACE #5 MAHONING VALLEY $6,500 Claiming
6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 11 Reanimate F Salazar Becerra
PLACE 5-2 8 Buckeye Ruckus E Barbaran
SHOW 4-1 2 Judge Head L R Rivera
WILD CARD 6-1 3 Dream Prizes L A Batista

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 Often Enough A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Boot Legger M Cedillo

* EXACTA: 11-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/11 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX



RACE #6 MAHONING VALLEY $6,500 Claiming
6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 4 Sweet Valeria L R Rivera
PLACE 9-2 8 Captivating Art G Rodriguez
SHOW 4-1 1 Offtheroadagain A Gonzalez
WILD CARD 7-2 5 Caltha E Barbaran

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 9 Team Gold Digger A R Ramgeet
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 7 Talk Dirty F Salazar Becerra

* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX



RACE #7 MAHONING VALLEY $19,900 Starter Allowance
1 Mile 70 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:34 PM ET

#5 COME SEE ABOUT IT

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 5 Come See About It G Rodriguez
PLACE 3-1 4 Blood Moon L A Batista
SHOW 9-2 8 Improbable Story L E Perez
WILD CARD 8-1 6 Raison Karter J A Bracho

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 7 Good Idea V Severino
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 3 My Brother Cam M Cedillo

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX



RACE #8 MAHONING VALLEY $26,400 Allowance
1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 4:04 PM ET

#4 WINDY LU WHO

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 4 Windy Lu Who J A Bracho
PLACE 8-1 7 Aunt Bee Y Aviles
SHOW 4-1 8 Mystique Saboteur A Gonzalez
WILD CARD 8-1 5 Incessant L A Batista

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 2 Beavs Boo L E Perez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Shes Crafty J J Velez

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Algorix His form can be a bit inconsistent, but there are a few potential forward players lined up in here who might set things up for something from off the pace. Something like the two-back run keeps him in the frame if he's able to bounce back.
#7 Giles He finished well in front of the top choice when they met in February, but I'm a bit worried that he'll be overbet in here. Capable finisher with a good race shape waiting.
#6 Perfetto He looks best of the forward players, but he's always liable to get run down late in the lane. Think he has a chance to shake off the other speed types and last, but I'll look for something from a bit further back.
Race Summary Algorix has run a couple recent local races that would make him competitive with these if he's able to bring something similar, and I'm hoping a few pace and chasing types will set the table for him to rally late.

Mahoning Valley - Race #6
Picks Notes
#8 Captivating Art She found her form over the local footing after that dull first try here in February, and I wonder if she might be committed enough to turn away the other potential forward players and hang in there. Holding her form keeps her right there.
#7 Talk Dirty She has fairly reliable underneath form, and that counts for something in a spot where I don't trust that many of them. Can see her plugging away for another share.
#3 Gray Royality She has spent her last seven or eight starts just running evenly around the track, but those races all came against better allowance crews. I'd still want a price on the drop, but it wouldn't be a total shock to see her turn that form around a bit with this softer bunch.
Race Summary Not sure what to do with #5 Caltha, a dropper who would probably roll these with a repeat of her two-back try but enters this off a dreadful try last time out. Captivating Art should try to take it to them early, and there's a chance she's just quick enough to run them off their feet. Looking for Talk Dirty and/or Gray Royality to add some spice to the exotics.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Incessant She has tables to turn off the dud last time out, but her two- and three-back efforts stack up nicely enough here, and she should be in a perfect spot if the likely chalk can't see out the trip.
#4 Windy Lu Who She has been pretty game in those last few races, not missing by much, and she figures right up on the splits again here today. Think she's the one to catch and beat, and I wouldn't be surprised if she handled them easily at a short-ish price.
#8 Mystique Saboteur She'll go second off the break here after a sort of even effort last time out, and she tends to have enough gate speed to get herself into a decent spot early on with these. There are some pretty classy company lines here -- another capable player.
Race Summary Fun race here, and I think Incessant might offer a mid-range number after a dull run behind some of these last time out, but she should be in line to spy the speed throughout and can get first jump on the finishing types.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 RAINBOW STEW (4-1) Solid debut, better post, second-time Lasix, distance suits.
#4 GARBET (7-2) Dam was 12-37 and a multiple stakes winner of $390k.
#5 RED MOON (5-2) Working well over track, gets Hernandez for first start.
Race Summary RAINBOW STEW dueled inside in a well-bet debut but gave way to the deep closers. She draws favorably with speed to her inside today and figures tough on the cutback to a shorter sprint. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-6 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 WARREN’S MEMORABLE (4 Right set-up, better price on return to sprinting.
#6 SHOUT IT OUT (5-2) Idle four months since claim, question of readiness.
#7 CURIOUS INJI (7-2) Ran second to the favorites in short fields in last two go-rounds.
Race Summary Monday’s track was favorable to wide closers and that could suit WARREN’S MEMORABLE well as he shortens up off a one-mile race and gets ample pace flow to launch a winning rally. He was favored in his last three starts but should offer better value for a win and place bet today.

Turf Paradise - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 WESTPHAL (7-2) Late kick, steady form for top barn, goes well again.
#3 PURE ROCKET (5-1) Stayed after fleet-footed fave, upstaged to a victory.
#5 MACCHIATO D’ORO (6-1) Changed tactics in last pair, back-pedaled from up close.
Race Summary WESTPHAL rallied for a win and two seconds since returning to Turf Paradise, all with Negron aboard. He gained steadily while kept off the rail but couldn’t reach the pace-setting fave last out. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park

PURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 3	.50 Pick3 (Races 3-4-5)/$1 Exacta/$1 Trifecta/.10 Superfecta
Claiming $10,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $22,500 • Post: 1:17P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * OUR SOARING ANGEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface . INDIAN EXCELLENCE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. RAISE OUR FLAG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CATTY DOM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	OUR SOARING ANGEL	5/1	5/1
7	INDIAN EXCELLENCE	2/1	5/1
5	RAISE OUR FLAG	7/2	6/1
1	CATTY DOM	3/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	OUR SOARING ANGEL	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	68	54.4	64.4	61.4
1	CATTY DOM	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	64	52.4	54.4	43.9
5	RAISE OUR FLAG	5	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	70	64	51.6	65.0	59.0
7	INDIAN EXCELLENCE	7	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	74	49.8	62.0	54.5
2	BERNICE WHO	2	6/1	Trailer	70	61	26.4	56.8	47.3
6	JASMINE WHO	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	60	31.8	53.4	41.9
4	MISS ABILITY	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	59	27.6	57.0	50.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 2-3) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Maiden Optional Claiming $30,0 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 60 • Purse: $20,400 • Post: 1:52P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. RAINBOW STEW is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RAINBOW STEW: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. To day is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. STAR FINALITY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top thre e in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	RAINBOW STEW	4/1	9/5
2	STAR FINALITY	5/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	RAINBOW STEW	6	4/1	Front-runner	0	0	81.5	60.7	56.7
1	GLIMPSE OF GOLD	1	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	54.8	43.7	38.7
2	STAR FINALITY	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	59	51	57.5	52.3	48.3
7	LUTE'S DIAMOND	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	44.2	36.0	30.5

Unknown Running Style: SKEDADDLE'S LEGACY (6/1) [Jockey: Marti Alexander - Trainer: Martinez Esteban], GARBET (7/2) [Jockey: Valdes Alexis - Trainer: Vitali Marcus J], RED MOON (5/2) [Jockey: Hernandez Harry - Trainer: Metz Jeffrey].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 3:20pm - SO - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,200 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#5 GOLD CRUSHER (ML=8/1)
#4 OLDER BROTHER (ML=5/2)
#2 GRAVES MILL ROAD (ML=7/2)
#6 XTREME MAYHEM (ML=5/1)


GOLD CRUSHER - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front runner facing sluggish sorts today. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fifth). Should improve right here, with some respectable odds. OLDER BROTHER - A gelding like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. Rosales brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. This gelding is in fine condition. Finished first on Mar 4th. Just check out his most recent fig, 85. That one fits in this group. This entrant loves the track here at Turf Paradise. GRAVES MILL ROAD - Trainer Eikleberry moves this horse down the ladder based on class to face a weaker level today. Look for a strong race racing against these lower level horses. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. This gelding's last rating is strong enough to win here, I'll bet on him back again this time out. XTREME MAYHEM - Several positive 'vibrations' joined to this campaigner and his brain trust.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 YOU SPLIT TENS (ML=9/2), #1 SILVERBULLITBADGER (ML=5/1),

YOU SPLIT TENS - Just cannot wager on this racer. Didn't show me anything positive last time around the track or on January 30th. Unlikely that the speed fig he notched on February 15th will be enough in this affair. SILVERBULLITBADGER - This horse just hasn't looked fit recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 GOLD CRUSHER to win at post-time odds of 9/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 ITSONLYMONEYHONEY 3/1
# 5 NOSTALGIA 2/1
# 6 PAYDIEM 6/1

My pick in here is ITSONLYMONEYHONEY. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 60 - of her last affair. Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 64 speed figure which is one of the most respectable in this group. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to consider this filly. NOSTALGIA - Has run strongly when racing a dirt sprint race. Will almost certainly compete admirably in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. PAYDIEM - Has raced soundly in dirt sprint races. Have to love when any horse makes a quick major improvement.