Thursday 1/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Thursday, January 12

Posted on January 11, 2023 by David Aragona
RACE 4: GERMANY JAYVO (#4)
I want to play against the Rudy Rodriguez entry in this low-level maiden claimer, and both halves could attract some support. Among the favorites, I prefer Will Be Famous (#5) and Tap It Up (#8). The former has already had plenty of chances, but she’s primarily faced tougher company and may finally get getting the class relief she needs. Though, I do wish she had run a bit better in the slop last time at Parx. A wet track could work out better for Tap It Up, who finished well to secure second in the slop last time out. That race came up surprisingly fast, but the number did seem to get validated when fifth-place finisher Bella Michele returned to win her next start. She’s logical as she gets Lasix for James Ryerson. Yet I’m most interested in a runner who finished just behind her in that Nov. 27 affair. Germany Jayvo (#4) was making her career debut that day for Randi Persaud, who almost never wins with first time starters. Yet she actually showed some ability, rallying gamely between horses through the stretch after getting away to a tardy start. She wasn’t as effective last time, but she was too ambitiously placed against maiden special weight company. Now she’s dropping back down to the right level and is getting a subtle rider upgrade to Luis Rodriguez. Randi Persaud’s horses have generally been outrunning their odds lately, and this one looks like a legitimate contender.
RACE 6: EL MAYOR (#4)
This race looks pretty simple at first glance, as both likely favorites appear to have a significant class and speed figure advantage over this field. Yet it’s hard to trust either one to bring their top form to this $14k claimer. I’m especially concerned about the drop in class for Quickflash (#8), whose connections appear to be giving up after a mediocre effort against a tougher field at Parx last time. This consistent check getter seemingly could have made some money for his connections this winter, but they’re basically cutting ties in a race where he’s almost certain to get claimed. He would obviously be tough to beat if he ran as well as he did in his first couple of starts for Natalia Lynch, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s still capable of producing that form. Turnsandconditions (#2) is arguably even less trustworthy as he makes his first start since August, when his claim was voided at Del Mar. He’s exiting the barn of Robertino Diodoro, and has been transferred to Gary Sciacca, who is just 3 for 28 ($1.53 ROI) off trainer switches over the past 5 years. His best effort would make him tough here, but there are obvious questions. The logical alternatives to these favorites are horses like Brunate (#5) and Majestic Tiger (#9), but neither one has shown much affinity for winning lately. I want to go in a different direction with El Mayor (#4). This horse may appear to be overmatched at first glance, but I think he’s a bit better than he looks. It looked like he was off form when he first got to Aqueduct last fall, but I thought he showed signs of life last time at this level. He was aggressively ridden to contest the pace, going 4-wide into the turn and losing valuable ground. That was a quick pace that fell apart, but he never stopped trying in the lane. I’m actually intrigued by the turnback for him, as he’s never really gotten a chance to prove he can be effective sprinting on dirt. He also gets a significant rider upgrade to Dylan Davis.
RACE 7: MOMMASGOTTARUN (#8)
Spiked (#3) will be tough for this field to handle if she brings her best effort. She gamely chased home subsequent stakes winner Fingal’s Cave going this distance at Saratoga in July, and she proved that she’s still capable of producing that form when she finished second here in late November. She couldn’t hold off the challenge of Spooky Road, but she battled on gamely wearing blinkers for the first time. If you give her the sloppy track excuse for that poor effort in early October, she’s run well in all of her other races. Yet she could encounter another wet track on Thursday, which is a legitimate concern. I still view her as the horse to beat, but I don’t want to take too short a price on her. I’m not particularly interested in the Rudy Rodriguez entry, as they could wind up as the second choice given that both seemingly have a chance. Caragate (#4) is a bit more appealing. This New York-bred finished strongly going a mile last time, and distance isn’t supposed to be an issue for her, as she won decisively going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga over the summer. She just has to get a little faster to upset the favorite. I’m going in a different direction with Mommasgottarun (#8). At first glance, it seems a little odd that Linda Rice is asking a seemingly one-dimensional sprinter to stretch out to 9 furlongs. Yet she’s had success with this move before. Over the past 5 yeas, Rice is 16 for 35 (46%, $2.59 ROI) first off the claim going from sprints to routes on dirt. Plus Rice is 11 for 23 (48%, $2.94 ROI) with all of her first off the claim runners over the past two months. This filly ran poorly here just 12 days ago, but it appeared that her rider made little effort to motivate her at any point on a day when the track was enveloped in fog. She’s better than that, and actually does have some pedigree to stretch-out.

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Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct for January 12, 2023
By: Aaron Halterman

Let’s get another week started off right! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Aqueduct for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park January 12, 2023

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming

#3 Scottish Symphony will move over to the turf for this race today after breaking her maiden over the synthetic surface last time out at Woodbine. #2 Thirty Thou Kelvin gets class relief in this spot after trying stakes company at Aqueduct in her last start. She should be more competitive in this spot today.

Race 7: Claiming
freestar

#7 Mr. Bouma gets back to the dirt for this race today, while also taking a nice drop down in class. This level should suit him much better. #2 One America has run second against similar horses in back to back starts coming into this race. He should be competitive once again.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming

#2 Marisas Mission goes for two in a row today after an impressive starter allowance win over this track in his last start. This is also his second race off of the layoff. #1 J P Hellish also looks for two straight wins today after taking home a state bred allowance race in his last start.

Race 9: Maiden Optional Claiming

#4 Best Defense moves over to the synthetic surface today after running a solid fourth on debut over the turf at Aqueduct. #7 Lawful was a decent third on debut over this track last time out. He should move forward off of that race for a solid trainer.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 2,3,6,10 / 1,2,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 4,7 – $48

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Pakenham best bets & quaddie tips | January 12, 2023
January 11, 2023 7:01 am.
Ciaran Jackman

What Pakenham Races
Where Pakenham Racing Club – 420 Nar Nar Goon–Longwarry Rd, Tynong VIC 3813
When Thursday, January 12, 2023
First Race 5:45pm AEDT

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Night racing will return to Pakenham Racing Club this Thursday night when they host the first night of the Future Stars Maiden Series on a very competitive eight-race program. The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with warm weather forecast for the Wednesday and Thursday, we don’t expect to see a track any softer than a Good 4. The rail will be in the +3m position for the entire circuit, when racing gets underway at 5:45pm AEDT.
Best Bet at Pakenham: Tolpuddle

Our best bet at Pakenham will be Tolpuddle from the Grahame Begg yard after breaking his maiden first-up at Geelong over 1309m on December 16. This son of Pierro has finished in the placings at his two careers starts to date, with his debut run also coming at Geelong finishing behind the talented Grand Impact over 1200m. On Thursday, this lightly raced four-year-old gelding is set to meet with Black Zous, however, he is also accepted for Sandown Lakeside on Wednesday and is the second favourite there. If Black Zous runs at Sandown on Wednesday, we could see Tolpuddle’s odds shorten dramatically, but if Jerome Hunter chooses to bring Black Zous to Cranbourne, we could see two up-and-coming geldings go toe-to-toe over the 1400m on Thursday night. Jordan Childs will have his first sit on this gelding on Thursday night and from barrier two, he should settle in the one-one and be very hard to beat with even luck.
Best Bet

Race 6 – silks#6 Tolpuddle (9)

4yo Gelding | T: Grahame Begg | J: Jordan Childs (59.5kg)

$2.90 with Bet365
Next Best at Pakenham: Fancylanski

In the final race of the night, we will be siding with the Simon Lee-trained Fancylanski, who has recorded back-to-back wins at her third and fourth career start at Pakenham and Geelong over 1400m and 1500m. This four-year-old mare broke her maiden at Pakenham in a close finish, before running away from her rivals last start at Geelong to indicate that this girl is in a purple patch of form and looks to be holding it nicely. A common saying in horse racing, is to follow mares in form, and this mare fits the bill perfectly and now that she rises to 1600m on Thursday night, she should prove very hard to beat once again. Michael Dee will stick with this daughter of Polanksi after riding her to victory last start and if he gives her as good a ride as he did at Geelong, she will be in this race for a long way.
Next Best

Race 8 – silks#6 Fancylanski (9)

4yo Mare | T: Simon Lee | J: Michael Dee (59kg)

$4.80 with Neds
Value Bet at Pakenham: Your Shout Gingie

Our value bet of the night will be Your Shout Gingie from the Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock yard and will be running in the Future Stars 3YO Fillies Maiden Plate over 1200m first-up with the benefit of three jump outs over 800m. This daughter of Choisir was impressive without winning at her two starts last preparation, finishing fourth and fifth over 1200m at Cranbourne and over 1200m at Sandown Lakeside. Both of those starts were decent form races with the second and third placegetter from her Cranbourne start coming out to win their next start. The one worry we have about this filly is that she is the first emergency, so we need a scratching for her to gain a start and if she does, she will make her presence felt in the final 200m of this event.
Best Value

Race 5 – silks#13 Your Shout Gingie (4)

3yo Filly | T: Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock | J: TBA (57kg)

$15 with Bet365
Thursday quaddie tips for Pakenham
Pakenham quadrella selections

Thursday, January 12, 2023

2-3-7-10-13
1-6
7-8-10
4-6-8

Investment: $90 for 100%

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Turfway Park Tip Sheet - January 12

Jan. 11, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $7,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	10	Cornbread Hill	F De La Cruz
PLACE	3-1	11	Lake Tahoe	S Sanjur
SHOW	6-1	5	Keen On You	W A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Rhythmic Ruler	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Thing	V Lebron
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Mutual Confidence	P W Ouzts
* EXACTA: 10-11 BOX, 11-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/10/11 BOX, 1/5/11 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Luminist	C Landeros
PLACE	5-1	2	Lotta Roses	J D Ramos
SHOW	9-2	3	Courting War	W A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Shrimpie	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Artemus Sweetheart	V Lebron
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Athenais	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #3 $20,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Varton	J D Ramos
PLACE	3-1	7	Atlantic Strike	G Corrales
SHOW	4-1	9	Royal County	J McKee
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Threatlevelmidnite	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Docs Seven	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	10	World of Wonder	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX
RACE #4 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Life and Light	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	6-1	5	Go for It	E Esquivel
SHOW	8-1	1	Silent Vote	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	9-2	7	King Shaman	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	9	Coalminers Kitten	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	East by West	A Achard
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #5 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 DREAMFUL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Dreamful	C Landeros
PLACE	4-1	10	Spare a Dime	G Corrales
SHOW	4-1	14	Decree of Love	R M Hernandez
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Sonnyneedsmoney	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Mrs. K	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Quick Conversation	L Machado
* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-14 BOX, 14-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/10/14 BOX, 3/10/14 BOX
RACE #6 $78,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 BATH AND TENNIS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Bath And Tennis	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	9-5	1	Strong Odor	G Corrales
SHOW	8-1	4	Richies Great Girl	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	2-1	7	Thunder Love	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	2	Maotai	R Mojica Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Keepmeinthe Moment	R M Hernandez
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #7 $74,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BOTANICAL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Botanical	C Landeros
PLACE	10-1	4	Big Philly	E Esquivel
SHOW	3-1	8	Mustang Lady	R M Hernandez
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Frigid Lady	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Malawnia	M Franklin
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Tiki Bar	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
RACE #8 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Tricolour	R M Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	5	Laytown	C Landeros
SHOW	8-1	6	Mid Atlantic	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Paintsville	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	No Limitation	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	7	Midway Miracle	I Ayala
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - January 12

Jan. 11, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Isolation	J Loveberry
PLACE	5-2	5	Heart That Binds	A Castillo
SHOW	3-1	7	Bellamy Cay	J L Rodriguez
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Calaja	E Nieves
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	My Little Jen	S Barandela
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Lady Churchill	T S Albert
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #2 $15,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	6	Mad Adam	D L Parker
PLACE	3-1	3	Co Conspirator	J Loveberry
SHOW	7-2	5	Magazine Street	A Castillo
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Uncle Nick	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	7	Bonus Appreciation	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Aniclude	J L Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #3 $52,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 CHARDONNAY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Chardonnay	C J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	3	Hannahs Haven	J L Rodriguez
SHOW	5-2	2	Richebourg	R Gutierrez
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Lady Jeopardy	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	She a Hot Mess	E Nieves
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #4 $52,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 WUPKAR
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Wupkar	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	3-1	1	Gigablast	R Gutierrez
SHOW	4-1	6	Rue Lala	E Nieves
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Noneya	J L Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Hei Hei Custivity	S Barandela
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Sumitup	E Morales
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
RACE #5 $35,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	5	Emerald Forest	R Gutierrez
PLACE	2-1	4	All West	M Murrill
SHOW	8-1	3	Prados Priority	B Culp
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Crime Spree	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Gormleys Got Game	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	2	Devils Tower	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #6 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 ALLNIGHT MOONLIGHT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	5	Allnight Moonlight	J Loveberry
PLACE	4-1	1	Slick and Fast	M Pedroza Jr.
SHOW	7-2	4	I Dont Venmo	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Cajun Crazy	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1A	Anders Smile	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Up N Gone	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #7 $52,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	5	Forty Three	J Graham
PLACE	3-1	8	Wicked Rose	P L Cotto Jr.
SHOW	7-2	3	Blue Cheese	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Martinized	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Touchdown Joe	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Battle of Will	J L Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
RACE #8 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	4	Most Empressive	D L Parker
PLACE	5-2	5	Tianas Star	C J Lanerie
SHOW	7-2	7	Solidarity	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	15-1	1A	Perfection Saver	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Mytown Myrules	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Spiritcatcher	J Graham
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #9 $5,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	11	Mr. Production	T S Albert
PLACE	7-2	9	No Pedigree	J L Rodriguez
SHOW	6-1	4	Lt. Bonura	D L Parker
WILD CARD	15-1	1A	Counterfeit	B Culp
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Gracida	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Quest for Avette	M Murrill
* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/11 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - January 12

Jan. 11, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	5	My Man Matty	M Franco
PLACE	7-2	4	Empire Sky	K Carmouche
SHOW	10-1	1	Red D G P	R R Maragh
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Dreampoint	A S Worrie
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Callaloo	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Trevor Bardette	J A Vargas Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #2 $35,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 WIN FOR GOLD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Win for Gold	M Franco
PLACE	9-5	1	Good Skate	K Carmouche
SHOW	6-1	6	Catching Cupid	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	6-1	4	King James	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Amedeus Music	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	3	One More Score	G Huayas
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Lohengrin Two	A S Worrie
PLACE	4-1	3	Casalsa	E Cancel
SHOW	5-2	2	Poppys Pride	D Davis
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Cavaradossi	G Huayas
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Miami Chrome	O Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Mr. Pete	J A Davis
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 TAP IT UP
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Tap It Up	K Carmouche
PLACE	9-2	7	Miss Mia Lia	D Davis
SHOW	7-2	5	Will Be Famous	G Huayas
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Germany Jayvo	L A Rodriguez Castro
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	1	Howzyourcashflow	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Nightsaber	M Olver
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #5 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Good Morning Kiss	J Lezcano
PLACE	7-2	1	Aperol Spritz	K Carmouche
SHOW	10-1	7	Blanchiment	G Huayas
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Queens Over Threes	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Pauciloquent	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Midnight Rosie	D Davis
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #6 $14,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Quickflash	J A Gomez
PLACE	9-2	5	Brunate	J Lezcano
SHOW	4-1	9	Majestic Tiger	G Huayas
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Waheel	A S Worrie
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	2	Turnsandconditions	H K Harkie
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Storm Shooter	M Olver
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX
RACE #7 $82,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Caragate	D Davis
PLACE	3-1	1A	Baby Man	J A Gomez
SHOW	9-5	3	Spiked	M Franco
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Mommasgottarun	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	1	Suspended Campaign	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Mercy Mercy	A Adorno
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #8 $14,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 PRINCESS PINKY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Princess Pinky	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	1	Sweet as Sugar	K Carmouche
SHOW	9-2	3	Knot Anymore	M Olver
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Left Leaning Lucy	J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Idaka	L A Rodriguez Castro
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	London Gold	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Hotlist - January 12

Jan. 11, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Callaloo (B) drifted back to last in his second start and then rallied greenly into a slow pace. Blinkers go on. (5) My Man Matty was second in his debut behind a horse that came back to win his next start. He is projected to be on the lead. (4) Empire Sky will make his first start on the dirt after very good results in five turf races. (3) Dreampoint was third in his move from turf to dirt. He has had plenty of starts with eight top three finishes.
2^nd race [Clm 35000 N3L, 7F] – (2) Amedeus Music (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 7-2 and responded with a victory by almost five lengths in a N2L claimer with a career high speed figure. (4) King James will make his third start after a long layoff with an improved effort and is projected to be on the lead. (1) Good Skate had the lead and missed the win by a neck with a game effort in an open $50,000 claimer and now drops back to this restricted condition. (3) One More Score returns from an April layoff as a new gelding and drops into a N3L claimer for the first time.
5^th race [NY, Md 40000, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - January 12

Jan. 11, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (5) Ready On the Line has enough speed to lead throughout in this spot. (4) Gotta Go Gator missed by a neck and looks like the main rival. (3) Napa Dude should be a factor off the class drop. (2) Heart Boy was second last time and should be in the picture once again. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-5. Doubles: 2-3-4-5 with 1-3-4-6.
2nd race – (3) Attentive returns to turf and should be able to handle this field. (6) So Street put in a sharp work for this start. (1) Red Flag Alert will be a threat from the rail. (4) Uno Tiger should make a smooth transition to turf. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6. Exactas: 3-6 over 1-4 and 1-4 over 3-6.
5th race – (3) English Painter comes off a rallying second last time and should work out a winning trip here on Tapeta. (1) Right on Richie should respond nicely to the stretchout. (8) Mehlek drops a notch and should be a contender. (2) Super Spreader switches to Jose Ortiz and is worth a look. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-8. Doubles: 1-2-3-8 with 2-3-4-6.
6th race – (6) Pallotta Sisters had trouble in a stakes and should bounce back with a solid try here. (4) Agua Dulce exits a weak try in a stakes and figures to find this spot easier. (2) Thirty Thou Kelvin gets Irad and should return to top form. (3) Scottish Symphony ran well enough on synthetics to be a factor on turf. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-6. 8th race – (7) Over the Channel drops in class and should be tough to catch in this field. (3) Timmy M. gets Irad and should turn in a better effort in this field. (8) Backchat has a nice late kick and will be a threat late. (1) J P Hellish should work out a great trip from the rail. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #3

#1 Lady Jeopardy	Think she'll offer a decent enough price in here, and she has enough speed to be right in the mix early on from the fence, and the right trip might keep her competitive in this small group.
#5 Chardonnay	She looks like the one to beat here while dropping out of stakes company, and she owns some solid back races here last season. She's probably at her best up on the pace, but she can land this with a first-over trip if necessary.
#2 Richebourg	Her dirt form is actually pretty reliable when isolated out from the mostly flat turf tries on her page, and she's another with the tactical pace to be right up on or near the splits.
Race Summary	It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out from a race flow perspective, as there aren't any super committed early burners lined up, but they pretty much all have similar tracking styles that might turn this into a rider's race determined by who moves at the right time.

Fair Grounds - Race #4

#3 Viola Star	She'll go second off the layoff at what should be a nice price after showing some late interest in the comeback, and she would benefit if all the potential forward players hooked up early on and softened up the likely chalk again.
#4 Wupkar	Her best stuff makes her tough in here, but I still think she has to prove she can press and last, otherwise she might have her work cut out for her battling for the early pace today.
#2 Hei Hei Custivity	She has done nothing wrong through two romping wins at Evangeline last summer, but she'll have to step up to face this better bunch off the layoff while drawing as the inside pace that has to go early on. Maybe she's talented enough, but I fear she has a tough trip waiting for her.
Race Summary	Viola Star might get an okay setup from off the pace today, and she has some upside off that last try. She definitely benefits if someone forces Wupkar to race from off the pace early again today.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#3 Gracida	Think there might be just enough pace in here, including some sharp speed drawn all the way out, to set things up for a player from off the pace. His recent Delta form is a bit modest compared to some of the better players in here, but he finished with some enthusiasm in tries here last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get past these late at a mid-range price.
#9 No Pedigree	He looks competitive on class, but he was super flat on the hike off the claim last time out, and now he's in for less than half the early December claim price. Tough read, but not for me.
#11 Mr. Production	He turned in a flat try against starter stakes company here on Champions Day, and he's now back for sale for the price they paid for him more than a year ago. Pace from the outside makes him tough on class here, but I wouldn't be shocked if his form is heading the wrong way right now.
Race Summary	No Pedigree and Mr. Production both pose tough questions here while dropping in class, but they're both coming off flat efforts with better and aren't sure things to turn around on the plunge. Gracida has some upside while getting away from Delta, and I'm hoping he saves ground inside and settles for one late run here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#4 BERHANU (5-1)	Ran faster than allowance sprinters in win, could hold tactical edge in repeat try.
#6 SAN ANTONE (4-1)	Heavily favored in 4 of last 5 starts out of town, use in all gimmicks.
#2 COAST TO COAST (9-2)	Finished In the money in 3 of his last 4 starts against better.
Race Summary	BERHANU drew off to a runaway victory despite being pressed on the lead in the 3-path. His final time was faster than a same-day, $25,000 allowance optional claiming race. He can use his speed well and is taken to repeat. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #2

#1 U U STAR (8-1)	Lightly raced 4yo finished first or second in 5 of 9 starts, price attached.
#4 HIGH HEAT (7-2)	Canadian invader finished third behind Analyzer (35/7-6-7, $220k) last out.
#2 LAST MINUTE MARIO (4-1)	Ran his best race of 2022 in game front-end victory two starts back.
Race Summary	U U STAR is worth a price shot from the rail. He starts fresh off the claim, was the beaten favorite against similar foes and ran second to the 4-to-5 favorite in the race prior. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

Penn National - Race #4

#9 MOBEER (5-1)	Beattie first-time starter has steady work tab over strip, watch odds.
#2 UPFOR PAROLE (6-1)	Ability showed in second start, finished second to odds-on favorite.
#1 HARLEY’S CHARLEY (2-1	Has speed and rail, finished second in last pair at Parx.
Race Summary	MOBEER debuts for the always dangerous Todd Beattie barn. He worked 3F in :35.1 in mid-November and 5F in 1:01 and change in his final two preps. His dam finished in the money in three consecutive MSW sprints before winning in her fourth start. Bet to win and place and play 9-1 and 9-2 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 6	Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 41 • Purse: $6,800 • Post: 5:00P
FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. CLASIF. $8,000 ALLOWED 1 LBS. INFERIORES Y DEBUTANTES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. AZONDRA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MI LEALTAD: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LA SUPERCHIKA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
4	MI LEALTAD	3/1	5/2
7	LA SUPERCHIKA	5/1	5/1
10	AZONDRA	20/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	AZONDRA	10	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	67.8	22.6	12.1
4	MI LEALTAD	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	58	47.8	32.2	27.7
7	LA SUPERCHIKA	7	5/1	Trailer	58	39	25.6	27.6	24.6
2	PREDESTINADA	2	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	35.1	25.9	15.9
9	LOVELY MARIAH	9	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	42	38	18.6	18.8	9.8
3	AMAYA BESITO	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	74.5	6.7	0.0
5	CIDRITA	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.9	16.6	5.1
8	ANTOFAGASTA	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.6	12.0	0.0
1	INFINITY BUBBLE	1	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	34	16	39.0	14.2	1.2

Unknown Running Style: CHULERIA (10/1) [Jockey: Perez Gerardo J - Trainer: Rondon Arturo].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for AqueductPURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 6	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 6 &7, Pick 3 ($1) (6-8)
Claiming $14,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 3:16P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. QUICKFLASH is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * QUICKFLASH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TURNSANDCONDITIONS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter H orse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
8	QUICKFLASH	2/1	5/2
2	TURNSANDCONDITIONS	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	QUICKFLASH	8	2/1	Stalker	101	80	85.0	82.4	80.4
5	BRUNATE	5	9/2	Stalker	87	73	73.8	72.4	62.9
2	TURNSANDCONDITIONS	2	7/2	Stalker	88	85	63.8	79.8	70.3
9	MAJESTIC TIGER	9	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	86	70.4	80.4	71.9
1	WAHEEL	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	78	51.0	75.2	63.2
7	STORM SHOOTER	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	81	70.6	69.4	63.4
4	EL MAYOR	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	72	69.4	65.0	53.0
3	EXXTOP	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	58	58.6	50.4	33.4
6	BINGO JOHN	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	81	36.0	60.7	47.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - SO - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 72

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MCMONEY 15/1
# 4 COMMANDER FLYNN 6/1
# 8 MEHLEK 6/1

MCMONEY looks very good to best this group and could score at a price in here. Has performed well lately in route races, posting a nifty 73 avg speed figure. Is a contender - given the 73 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race. COMMANDER FLYNN - Has put up solid Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the recipe to a turn around. MEHLEK - He has garnered formidable figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this field. In fine fettle, and coming back soon again today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:54pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#4 DANCE A LITTLE JIG (ML=9/2)
#6 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT (ML=3/1)


DANCE A LITTLE JIG - This rider/handler duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +30. Jockey hops up on board after getting to know the beautiful animal by riding last out. That's always a great angle. Look at this mare's PP lines. With each race she keeps getting closer. I believe the addition of the 'hood' today will help this mare focus her attention on racing. Have to give this mare a shot. Ran a nice effort last time out within the last month. SCHOOL OF THOUGHT - Rider jumped on this mare's back for the first time on November 29th. Should be in tune with the horse even better this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BLU SKY SUNRISE (ML=5/2), #2 LAUGH IT OFF (ML=4/1), #5 SHEMADEMELUCKY (ML=5/1),

BLU SKY SUNRISE - Finished eighth in her most recent performance with a common speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. LAUGH IT OFF - Pace makes the race and the deficiency of pace means this come from behinder will have to rally without any help. Last effort was too nice. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'performance bounce' in today's event. SHEMADEMELUCKY - Somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last out at Penn National at 1 mile. Don't believe this questionable contender will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 DANCE A LITTLE JIG to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip