Saturday 11/19/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 12:37 AM

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 19

November 18, 2022

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (3) Steely Danza was a game third at this level and looks best here. (4) Romancer drops a notch and should be a main threat. (1) Midaswellrun might rebound in this spot. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4.
4th race – (1) Saenz (A) won easily last time and can make it two in a row here. (2) Frigid Lady comes off a sharp maiden win and should be the main threat. (6) Girl Afraid could be tough to catch here. (3) Moon Magic Chrissy could contend off the claim. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2. Exactas: 1-2 over 3-6 and 3-6 over 1-2. Doubles: 1-2-3-6 with 3-4-5-6. Pick 3: 1-2-3-6 with 3-4-5-6 with 1-3-5-11.
5th race – (4) Without a Song is a firster from Asmussen who can win at first asking. (5) Cape Trafalgar was no worse than third in his three starts and is the one to fear. (6) F Five is another firster with good potential. (3) Yodason has been away since 2021 and could be a factor if there’s no rust. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-6.
6th race – (3) Reagan (A) missed by a neck in his debut and can make amends here. (5) Chicago’s Gray makes his debut for Asmussen and looms a top contender. (11) Lark’s Mischief Is another Asmussen firster who deserves attention. (1) Easy Action should be a factor from the rail. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-11.
10th race – (1) Coach was a good second off a lengthy layoff. Should move forward off that effort. (2) Mariah’s Princess should also improve after a strong try off a layoff. (6) She Can’t Sing may appreciate the turf-to-dirt switch. (4) Ice Orchid looked good in an allowance win and cannot be overlooked. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2. Exactas: 1-2 over 4-6 and 4-6 over 1-2.

No.

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

(1)

Saenz

A, 10/13

4 CD

Won easily last time

(3)

Reagan

A, 9/29

6 CD

Missed by a neck in his debut

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 12:39 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - November 19

November 18, 2022

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, November 19, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3^rd race [OC 62k/N2X, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (5) Kinenos (B) makes his first start since getting claimed for $62,500 by Mike Maker from a race where he had a wide trip after pressing the pace. (6) Ocean Atlantique (D) was bet down from 12-1 to 6-1 after getting back on the grass. He is projected to be on the lead in this field. (3) Analyze It is a past graded stakes winner for Chad Brown who was second by a nose in his first start after a four month layoff. (1) It Can Be Done rarely runs a bad race and was graded stakes placed last year. He will make his second start for Todd Pletcher.
7^th race [Gio Ponti, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (2) Grand Sonata gets some class relief after four starts in graded stakes in which he was third and second in his last two. In the winter at Gulfstream Park, he won two stakes in a row including the Kittens Joy (G3). (1) Churchtown ships down from Woodbine for Hall of Famer Roger Attfield after a narrow pace-pressing loss in a September stakes race which came after a brief layoff. (6) Dakota Gold is one of the pair entered in this race by Danny Gargan. This NY-bred began his career last year with two wins against open company and then was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf of 2021. He came back as a 3-year-old to win twice in state-bred stakes. With $575,000 in earnings, he returns from an August layoff preparing for the Hollywood Derby (G1) next month. (8) Steady On won his last two starts at the BAQ meeting for Todd Pletcher and will now step up to a stakes for the first time in just his fourth career race.
9^th race [NY, Alw 75000 N1X, 6F TURF] – (9) Masterof the Tunes (A) had bad luck in her last three starts including a second at this level two races back. (5) Smokin’ Hot Kitty will cut back to turf sprinting after running second two weeks ago at Aqueduct. (12) Tis a Pity has three strong efforts in a row with a second and a third at today’s NY-bred level and a win in a starter allowance. (8) Bustin Bullet tried the dirt last time and now returns to get one last turf start in New York this year.
10^th race [NY, Md 40000, 6F] – (3) Super Slide (D) got bet down from 20-1 to 13-1 in her third start when she dropped into a maiden claimer for the first time. Blinkers come off. (5) Ma Mi Jo Dreams is projected to be on the lead as she goes in for a tag for the first time in her fourth start. (9) Maddie’s Grace was third in her debut at Saratoga and then needed a break after her second start. She also will race in a maiden claimer for the first time. (6) Irish Empress raced against tougher fields in her first races and will get some class relief against this group as she is up for sale for the first time.

Best bets: Grand Sonata (7^th); Masterof the Tunes (9^th). Best value: Kinenos (3^rd); Super Slide (10^th).
Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 8-10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:23 AM

Pick 5 Play Fair Grounds: Saturday, Nov. 19
Kevin Kilroy

It’s important to have a strong opinion in one of the first two legs of this sequence at Fair Grounds — both are two-year-old races where you can make a strong case for many in each field. It’s easy to get caught up in wire-to-wire first-out winners, early-year form, pedigree, and connections. And other tickets will. Separate from the pack in the first two legs of the Pick 5.
Race Horses
R5

8
R6

1,3,6,7,9
R7

2,10
R8

2
R9

1,7,10

50-cent Pick 5 = $15
Race 5: Dirt, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Joseph R. Peluso S., 2-year-old statebreds

My strong opinion is in the first leg. I am all over #8 Late September (5-2). His trip from Royal Ascot to Delta Downs — you don't hear of that too often — didn’t take anything out of him as he beat a tank in King’s Lute after being caught wide in the first turn. He’s got more to show here and will likely stalk and gobble up what looks like a hot pace.
Race 6: Dirt, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Md Sp Wt 50k, 2-year-old fillies

#1 Oath of Allegiance (10-1) is making her second start for Joe Sharp, so expect improvement. #3 Master Som (4-1) showed me all I need to know last out at Keeneland. She breaks like lightning and immediately gets to front-running business. Third run from Steve Asmussen, and he will be ready to show more. #6 Hayunevano (9-2) has the works and connections to make an impact first time out — must include. #7 Camp Akeela (3-1) didn’t step forward in the dirt with blinkers on in last, but this filly out of Tom Amoss’ barn has been moving with ease in the mornings and should be live towards the lead. #9 Miss Shipman (8-1) moved professionally walking the front last out but simply ran out of gas to make it seven furlongs.
Race 7: Dirt, 1 Mile 70 yards, Scott’s Scoundrel S., 3-year-old & up statebreds

The 3-year-old Louisiana Champion #10 Who Took the Money (9-5) somehow keeps moving forward. A late kicker will have you white-knuckling on the dirt, but his Thoro-Graph figures put him in another league against these foes.

I’d single, if I didn’t know better. #2 Behemah Star (6-1) lit up these ranks in last year’s Star Guitar, and big race days mean something to the owner, Brittlyn Stable, so there is no doubt that Jose Camejo will have Behemah Star cranked in here. A hot pace in store, the trip will be crucial for both of these in here.
Race 8: Dirt, 6 Furlongs, Monte Man S., 3-year-old and up statebreds

Give me Bertie’s Galaxy (2-1) or give me death. This speedster can duel, dig in, and will run his eyeballs out. This stake is named for his stablemate, and winning it undoubtedly means a lot to Ron Faucheux.
Race 9: Dirt, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Md Sp Wt 50k, 2-year-old statebreds

Half-sibling to Social Misfit, #1 Anders Smile (6-1) gets another chance after blowing the start on debut. The works are sharp and the pedigree is there. #7 Righteous Freedom (10-1) has early speed and Louie Roussel gets his horses ready for that second start. #10 Jack Hammer (7-2) is half to Winning Romance and fired a confidence-inspiring bullet last week. He simply has to overcome this wide draw to win on debut.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:24 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, November 19
Posted on November 18, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 1: QUARREL (#6)

I suppose Justifiable Belle (#2) could vie for favoritism here as she gets back on the turf. She ran pretty well in her debut when finishing second behind the talented Xigera. However, she did work out a perfect trip that day. I won’t hold her subsequent dirt performance against her, as she’s now getting back on the right surface. She’s not exactly interesting, but she is a contender. I would also give a look to Self Confident (#4), who ran well in her turf debut at Kentucky Downs, albeit against a weaker field. She lost as the favorite last time at Keeneland, but may still have upside for Shug. Chad Brown has entered two in here, and both make some sense. Hay Stack (#7) could take more money after being well supported in her first couple of starts. She was green on debut when lugging in through the stretch behind subsequent stakes winner Pleasant Passage. Yet I would have liked to see more of a step forward from her last time, when she just seemed to lack the turn of foot to get involved. Tangential (#1) is perhaps a little more interesting as she switches over to grass for the first time. She didn’t run that well in her debut, but I find it interesting that Brown goes directly to grass with this daughter of Justify, who has had some initial success as a turf sire. She moves like one that should take to this surface. My top pick is a different first time turfer. Quarrel (#6) has been meant for grass since the start of her career, though the connections did run her both times that she got rained off the turf earlier this fall. She actually showed ability on debut over a good, sealed track before running poorly last time over a fast, harrowed one. From a wagering standpoint, I don’t care about that last race, since she’s supposed to move up on grass. Speightstown is obviously a solid turf sire, and this filly’s female family is full of turf influences. The dam was stakes-placed on turf, and she’s a half-sister to multiple turf winner Daunt. I expect her to be forwardly placed throughout on the stretch-out in distance.

RACE 6: CONSTITUTIONLAWYER (#7)

Three-year-olds appear to have the upper hand in this N1X allowance affair over 11 furlongs. Dripping Gold (#2) is the horse to beat after narrowly losing at this level last time following an eventful journey. It initially appeared as if Jose Lezcano was going to go forward with him out of the gate, but he ultimately reined him in to rate, which caused Dripping Gold to get rank. This horse can be a little high strung by nature, so fighting him probably didn’t help matters. All things considered, he did well to get up for third, just missing by a neck. I expect him to run well, especially if Jose Lezcano makes better use of his tactical speed from this inside draw. My top pick is another 3-year-old. Constitutionlawyer (#7) also handled the 11-furlong trip two back in a different race at this level. He got a great trip from Dylan Davis that day, right up until they got to the quarter pole. Davis tried to take the inside path, but cut things a little too close, as this horse brushed the rail multiple times just as he was making his move, costing himself valuable momentum. One could argue he might have won that race if not for the incident, and he was probably meeting a better field that day. He was certainly meeting a better group of horses last time in the Hill Prince, when he ran well to finish a narrowly beaten fifth, just a half-length out of second-place. He’s really come to hand as a turf horse recently, I don’t mind this rider switch to Joel Rosario. The one other horse I would want to use at a much bigger price is Hail to Thee (#9). This lightly raced gelding may simply not be good enough, but he had no chance in his lone prior attempt against winners last time, when he reacted very badly to getting put in tight quarters soon after the start. His debut was impressive, and he strikes me as one that will want to run all day.

RACE 7: GRAND SONATA (#2)

Potential favorite Steady On (#8) has looked like a different horse ever since stretching out around two turns. However, he has benefited from great trips in both recent victories. He got to set a slow pace when breaking his maiden two back, in a race where the runner-up was a little unlucky. Then last time he was stalking the pace while riding an advantageous rail path in a race dominated by horses who raced inside. He earned a massive 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and a repeat of that number makes him the horse to beat. However, he’s going to be a short price, especially with Irad Ortiz riding, and he still has some questions to answer at this level. I much prefer Todd Pletcher’s other runner Grand Sonata (#2). This colt drops out of a series of graded stakes attempts, and may just be landing in the right spot. With the exception of a poor effort in the Saratoga Derby, he’s been pretty consistent throughout his 3-year-old season. He got a good trip in the Hill Prince last time, though he did angle off an advantageous rail path in upper stretch to make a run down the center of the course. He has once again lucked out at the post position draw, and figures to be running late if any pace develops up front. The horse who hit the wire with him in the Hill Prince, Wicked Fast (#5), is also one to consider. He got a great ride from Trevor McCarthy that day, as he just hugged the rail into the stretch, cutting the corner before slicing through traffic late. He ultimately ran out of ground, though I thought Grand Sonata ran a little better overall. Wicked Fast is obviously doing well since getting claimed by Mike Maker over the summer. Though, his deep-closing style does make him more pace dependent than some others.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:24 AM

The Jury: Bets and fades for Nov. 19

In advance of a feast of graded stakes helpings during the Thanksgiving holiday, the TwinSpires Jury of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson have scouted this weekend's offerings to find what they hope are appetizing plays and fades.
What is your best bet?

James Scully: Saturday's $135,000 Gio Ponti S. at Aqueduct lacks a standout, and I'm intrigued by #3 Riot House, who looks poised to improve in his second stakes attempt for Danny Gargan. Kendrick Carmouche traveled to Woodbine for the stakes debut in the Sept. 10 Toronto Cup at Woodbine, and Riot House chased a hot pace before weakening to sixth in the stretch. The lightly-raced sophomore son of Violence was making his first start off a five-month freshening last time, recording a pair of promising wins over maiden and entry-level allowance foes at Gulfstream last spring, and the gelding shows a half-mile bullet turf work in preparation for the Gio Ponti. Listed at 15-1, Riot House should relish a projected tepid pace scenario.

Kellie Reilly: A return to Louisiana-bred company at Fair Grounds could be just what #10 Unified Report (6-1) needs in Saturday's Monte Man S. The Dallas Stewart trainee sports a 2-for-3 local mark, both wins coming at this six-furlong trip, including last December's Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile. His lone loss here was an eighth in the Jan. 22 Lecomte (G3). Likewise, his only reverse against state-breds also came in a route stakes at Delta Downs earlier this year. Sprinting is his game, although he's found it more challenging in open company. After trying ultra-competitive turf allowances at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland, he fits back among these on the New Orleans main track, especially with an overload of speed to set him up.

Vance Hanson: I'll go in a different direction in the Gio Ponti with another Danny Gargan trainee, #6 Dakota Gold (9-2). Although he's been sticking to New York stallion stakes in a limited campaign so far this year, the colt was one of the more capable juvenile turf performers in open company last season. He actually went favored in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) after the premature scratch of Modern Games and only missed by a little more than two lengths to that world-class colt, who ran for purse money only. Dakota Gold appears fairly priced on this morning line and is more than capable stepping back into open company.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #1 Coach is listed as the 9-5 morning line favorite in Saturday's $300,000 Chilukki S. (G3) at Churchill Downs, but the four-year-old filly must work out a trip from the rail at a tricky one-turn mile distance. And given she favors two-turn distances, racing exclusively at two turns, including a pair of mile races at Oaklawn, over the last two-plus years, Coach appears vulnerable at short odds. I'm intrigued by the progressing Ice Orchid, who is listed at 10-1 in her stakes debut, and will also include Mariah's Princess and She Can't Sing in any multi-race wagers.

KR: As smart as #1 Oh Darlin (8-5) looked in breaking her maiden at Gulfstream Park, she's making an abrupt stretch-out from five furlongs to a mile and 70 yards in Saturday's Juvenile Fillies S. for Florida-breds. A few others have credentials at a more appealing price. Navy Goat (4-1), a Kentucky Downs maiden winner for Arnaud Delacour, figures to enjoy the switch to Tapeta, and stakes-placed Esoteric (6-1) should improve with added distance as a full sister to 2021 Longacres Mile (G3) hero Background.

VH: #10 Who Took the Money (7-5) could be overbet in the Scott's Scoundrel S., for Louisiana-bred older horses, at Fair Grounds. Although coming off a romping win in the Gold Cup at Delta Downs, there's a chance he might bounce off that career peak. Also note he's not invulnerable to losing at a short price, as was shown in the Star Guitar S. last March against a couple returning rivals. The strong possibility of an off track might also make his task more difficult.

What else is worth noting?

JS: #4 Without a Song (8-1), a three-year-old colt by Medaglia d'Oro, will make his career debut in Saturday's fifth race at Churchill Downs, and the half-brother to Honor Code appears to be training forwardly for Steve Asmussen in preparation. Asmussen has interestingly kept him away from Churchill and Keeneland clockers, readying Without a Song at Ellis Park, and his charge is listed at 8-1 with Ricardo Santana Jr. Without a Song is bred to run early, with both Honor Code and another half-brother, multiple graded stakes winner Noble Tune, winning their first start by open lengths, and he may receive a favorable setup in a race packed with speed.

KR: Will highly-regarded two-year-old filly #1 Justique (8-5) rebound in Saturday's Desi Arnaz S. at Del Mar? The John Shirreffs pupil was a buzzworthy, last-to-first debut winner at this track over the summer, but then came down with a fever and ended up skipping the Del Mar Debutante (G1). While she had more time to prepare for the Oct. 8 Chandelier (G2) at Santa Anita, she wound up a belated, lackluster third in that stakes and two-turn test. As a Justify half-sister to Grade 1 star (and promising freshman sire) Mo Town, Justique has every right to keep progressing, and reverting to one turn at Del Mar might get her back on track. Yet that same pedigree implies that her future lies over further, and she'll have to be plenty sharp to catch speed merchant #6 Blessed Touch (9-5). Another rival of note is well-bred #2 Parody (4-1), a close relation of 2003 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) champ Funny Cide who was transferred to Bob Baffert after scoring first out for Rodolphe Brisset. I'm hoping that Justique shows enough spark to renew the initial excitement.

VH: I'm not sure what happened to #3 Center Aisle (6-1) last spring when she trailed in both the Madison (G1) and Derby City Distaff (G1), but she appeared to right the ship in her recent comeback at Keeneland and looks a serious player in the aforementioned Chilukki at Churchill Downs. The Paulo Lobo charge hasn't yet won over a mile, but is bred to get the extra ground and is already a Grade 3 winner having knocked off the capable Frank's Rockette in the Sugar Swirl (G3) at Gulfstream last winter.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:24 AM

Noel’s Weekend Winners: Pair of Late Live Longshots Saturday at Aqueduct

November 18th, 2022 by Noel Michaels

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Saturday, Nov. 19

Fall weather is in the air and crisp, clear conditions are expected at Aqueduct for this Saturday’s 10-race card, which includes five turf races headlined by the $135,000 Gio Ponti Stakes for 3-year-olds. The Big A’s late Pick 4 will be offered on races 7-10, and the sequence appears extremely playable with all four legs of the wager looking up for grabs with wide-open fields. I have identified a pair of longshot plays in the late Pick 4 – in the first leg and in the last leg – and those horses can be bet on their own or combined into your Pick 4 tickets. If either or both come in, the value of the payoffs with skyrocket. Best of luck.

Aqueduct, Race 7, Gio Ponti Stakes, post 2:44 p.m. ET

Saturday’s featured race at Aqueduct is this $135,000 stakes race at the distance of 1 1/16 miles on the grass that has drawn a quality nine-horse field. The horse to beat seems to be #8 Steady On (2-1) trained by Todd Pletcher and coming off good-looking, back-to-back wins on this turf course since being stretched out to two turns. Steady On has earned strong speed figures and shown versatile ability, first winning wire-to-wire two starts ago and last time winning easily after rating off the pace. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be back aboard for the mount. Along with the favorite, there is also a dark horse in the Gio Ponti, and that is #4 Ohtwoohthreefive (15-1) trained by George Weaver. Ohtwoohthreefive has not been embarrassed in various stakes spots to date, including a second by a nose on this course at this time last year in the Central Park Stakes, and much more recently when second behind favored Wit in the $135,000 Better Talk Now Stakes at Saratoga at essentially a very similar spot. The speed figure he earned in that runner-up finish puts him right with the top horses in this race and points him out as a longshot with a legit chance to start off the late Pick 4 with a big price in the tote board.

The Play: Start the late four with two horses on your ticket – the favorite #8 Steady On and a longshot, #4 Ohtwoohthreefive. Also bet Ohtwoohthreefive to win and box him in the exacta with Steady On.

Aqueduct, Race 10, maiden claiming, post time 4:12 p.m. ET

The late Pick 4 at Aqueduct concludes with this maiden-claiming sprint for New York-bred 2-year-old fillies going six furlongs. The field is full of class droppers from the maiden special weight ranks who have failed to distinguish themselves and are looking for reboots down versus maiden claimers. None of those stands out, but what does stand out is a horse all the way on the outside that has already been knocking on the door at this level and is a live overlay at 10-1 odds on the morning line. That contender is #11 Maggie T, who is guaranteed to stick at or near the lofty morning-line odds with jockey Jalon Samuel aboard, since that rider never gets bet despite the fact he’s more than capable of winning when aboard a live runner in a spot like this. Maggie T ran into a buzzsaw winner in her career debut in a maiden-claiming race against open company at Saratoga but was clearly second best in that unveiling despite a bad start. Following another bad break from the starting gate in a maiden special weight defeat in her second start, Maggie T returned to the claiming ranks last time out against NY-breds and ran second again in an improved effort where she was in the thick of the race throughout at seven furlongs, and actually probably would have won the race had it been at today’s six-furlong distance since she had the lead in the stretch that day until getting passed late. In this very winnable spot, Maggie T and Jalon Samuel should get over the hump at 10-1.

The Play: Bet on #10 Maggie T to win and use her as the key horse for race 10 in the final leg of your Pick 4 and other multi-race wagers.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:25 AM

Seoul Saturday: Race-By-Race Preview (November 19)

Saturday’s racing is at Seoul with 10 races from 10:45 to 18:00. Here are the previews:

Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

Juvenile maidens in the opener and (4) G MOTION will be one of the banker favourites of the day. Having run 3rd on debut at 1000M, he stepped up to this trip for his second start on October 16th and duly ran 2nd in a good time, sitting handy and finishing well. He shouldn’t need to improve much, if at all, on that run to win here. (5) TAURUS QUEEN looked promising when 2nd on debut over 1000M on October 16th. That was in filly only company, but the time was fast and they way she finished off suggests that the additional furlong today should suit. (1) CHROMITE too finished off well for 3rd on both his previous starts over 1000M. He draws nicely here and should go close again. (3) ARGO RICH and (10) MONEY JANGGUN among others with the potential to improve.
Selections (4) G Motion (5) Taurus Queen (1) Chromite (3) Argo Rich
Next Best 10, 2
Fast Start 1, 4, 5, 7

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

More juvenile maidens. (4) ULTRA GALAXY beat three of these on his way to a good 3rd place at this distance on October 22nd. That was his third start and his best finish to date. Expect him to settle midfield again and run on and he can come out on top here. (10) MORNING PRINCE has two 3rd places from three starts so far including last time out on October 9th when running on in a good time. The wide draw shouldn’t be an inconvenience, and he can be in the mix again. (5) EFFEL TAP improved to 3rd when tried at this distance for the first time on October 23rd. He should have derived benefit from the run, Moon Se-young stays aboard, and he has claims here. (9) POWERFUL SOCKS ran 4th behind Ultra Galaxy on October 22nd and while he gets a less favourable draw this time, the margin wasn’t big and it’s not impossible he could overturn that form. (3) BAEKDU BOY another in the frame.
Selections (4) Ultra Galaxy (10) Morning Prince (5) Effel Tap (9) Powerful Socks
Next Best 3, 7
Fast Start 2, 3, 6, 7

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

A regular maiden here and (4) SECRET KING should have too much. He comes in off a 2nd, 4th, and a 3rd from his latest three, all at this distance and all in good times. He draws very nicely to be on pace or handy and he will be hot favourite to prove too strong. (11) SSANG OK RU wasn’t ready when debuting in January, but he returned to action looking a much better individual when 3rd at this distance on October 23rd, leading for much of the way around. He should have benefited for that run and while the draw is wide, he can be a danger late on here. (2) ARCH MEMORY was 6th behind Secret King in her last outing on October 15th. That continued a consistent run of form, and a similar effort should see her in the frame here. (5) TOGETHER WAY and (7) PURPLE STORM the other logical placing chances.
Selections (4) Secret King (11) Ssang Ok Ru (2) Arch Memory (5) Together Way
Next Best 7, 10
Fast Start 4, 6, 9, 11

Seoul Race 4: Class 5 (1300M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(10) HWARANG TODAY was a winner two starts back over 1200M at class 6 level before running 2nd at the same trip on his first try at this level on October 30th. He comes up 2kg in the weights but Moon Se-young climbs aboard and the wide draw shouldn’t be a problem. He has every chance here. The main danger is (1) SURE WIN. Despite the name he has one just one of five starts so far but was a solid 3rd on his first try at this class over 1400M on October 23rd. He carries a very light weight again and from the inside gate, should be looking to get on pace right from the very start. (11) SPO BLADE comes up in class having won well from the front over 1200M on October 22nd. This is harder and the draw is not ideal but don’t rule out a bod showing. (4) GRAY THOR and (8) SAENAE HWANGJE among others firmly in the hunt in a competitive race.
Selections (10) Hwarang Today (1) Sure Win (11) Spo Blade (4) Gray Thor
Next Best 8, 12
Fast Start 1, 4, 6, 9

Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

It’s about time that (9) WONPYEONG TOWN won a race. He comes in off three consecutive 2nd place finishes, most recently at this class over 1300M on October 22nd. His racing style has been to run on pace, and he can be expected to get forward here again. Despite the step up in trip, this could be his day. (2) SPECIAL STORY has won, albeit just once in twenty-three attempts, but her recent body of work has been good with a 3rd and a 2nd from her latest two, both at this class and distance and both in good times. She draws beautifully here to be on pace or handy and has every chance. (8) ALL FOR YOUR DREAM is up in class following an all the way score over this distance on October 16th. He won’t get quite as easy a run to the front this time, but he can measure up in this company. (3) NOW NURI is up in class but down in weight and the additional weight may suit and along with (1) CUPID KOREA is another in the minor money frame.
Selections (9) Wonpyeong Town (2) Special Story (8) All For Your Dream (3) Now Nuri
Next Best 1, 7
Fast Start 2, 4, 9, 11

Seoul Race 6: Class 3 (1600M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million

(9) WOW WOW was 5th in the Korean Derby from a horrible draw and subsequently won well at class 4 level over 1700M. His two starts at this class have seen him come home 2nd, both over 1800M and while he is u pin the weights here and gate nine at a mile qualifies as another “horrible draw”, his quality could see him through. (2) WONDERFUL KITTY has the weight and the gate in her favour. She comes in off 3rd place behind Wish Me’s track record breaking effort over 1400M in the Jeju Governor’s Cup when she was working home very well. She comes up to this trip for the first time and with Moon Se-young engaged today, she may well start as favourite. (7) BEOLMAL DAEJANG has just lost his way slightly in his latest two. He comes down a little bi in the weights today and the mile may be something different for him so he can be worth a chance at an each-way price. (5) CUPID WONDER is up in class but is the likely early leader and has claims. (6) TOP SEED another firmly in the calculations.
Selections (9) Wow Wow (2) Wonderful Kitty (7) Beolmal Daejang (5) Cupid Wonder
Next Best 6, 3
Fast Start 4, 5, 6, 10

Seoul Race 7: Class 2 (1600M) Allowance / KRW 90 Million

(4) RAON BEAT was a winner at this distance at class 3 level two starts back, leasing all the way and carrying even more weight than he does today. On his first try at this level he ran 3rd over 1800M and from a nice draw today, he can get on pace and win again. (7) JANGSAN FOREVER returned from ten months out to run a solid 4th over 1200M on October 15th. That should serve as a good pipe-opener and the winner of four from nine before the long layoff can be a winning threat here. (3) MONSTER K comes up in class following a front-running win over 1400M in a quick time in September. Today’s set weights do him no favours, but he draws well and has claims again. (10) GLOBAL SOCKS and (8) LUISA, who raced one another over 1400M on October 1st, with Luisa coming off best in 2nd place, are among others with claims in a race of many chances.
Selections (4) Raon Beat (7) Jangsan Forever (3) Monster K (10) Global Socks
Next Best 8, 2
Fast Start 2, 3, 4, 6

Seoul Race 8: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

Fillies only here. (9) MACH STAR comes up in class having won over this distance at start number two on October 23rd when she sat handy throughout and then ran on. On debut she had overcome an even wider draw than she gets her to run a solid 3rd and with the benefit of an apprentice claim, she can sit back and be dangerous late on here. (3) HAENGBOKAN MUNMAK made all to get her maiden win on her third outing on October 15th. That was at 1000M so she come sup in trip for the first time, but she draws well and with some natural improvement can be competitive again. (4) HUIMANG GADEUK is yet to win but comes up in class following back-to-back 2nd places over this distance in good times. She too draws well to get on pace and can be in this a long way. (8) TAKE MUSIC and (11) BEST FALCON among others to consider.
Selections (9) Mach Star (3) Haengbokan Munmak (4) Huimang Gadeuk (8) Take Music
Next Best 11, 1
Fast Start 3, 5, 8, 11

Seoul Race 9: Class 4 (1700M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

(5) MIGHTY GOOD has a solid record at this class and comes up in trip after a good 2nd place over 1400M on October 16th. He came from well back in the field as has been his pattern in his latest three outings, but having drawn a touch better today, could be further forward and the two-turns may well suit. (7) CHALLAN HANNAL has performed fairly at class and distance and came from the very rear of the field to make up excellent ground in the final furlong over a mile last time out. He can go close here. (12) MUSTANG POWER comes up in class following a good win over 1400M last time out. He is done no favours by the gate or the weight scale, but he has won at 1700M in the past and can measure up here. (1) P N S GAMBOL, another who has won at the distance, and (8) MAGIC JOY among others in at least the placing frame.
Selections (5) Mighty Good (7) Challan Hannal (12) Mustang Power (1) P N S Gambol
Next Best 8, 3
Fast Start 1, 5, 10, 12

Seoul Race 10: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

There’s plenty to like about (5) TIZ SUCCESS, who comes up in class having won two of four starts so far and finished runner-up in the other two. Her la test effort saw her lead all the way and run out a comfortable winner over this distance on October 9th and while this is her sternest test yet, she comes down in the weights, draws a good gate, and can win again. (2) STRONG VULTURE enters in good form with a 3rd and a 2nd from his latest two, both at class and distance. He remains well in at the weights and can go close again here. (8) COLJOY mixes his form but when he gets a good start, he is competitive as he was when making all to win at this class over 1300M in a fast time in September. He carries plenty of weight but don’t rule him out. (4) DAESAN TEUKGEUP and (7) GRACE QUEEN among other placing chances.
Selections (5) Tiz Success (2) Strong Vulture (8) Coljoy (4) Daesan Teukgeup
Next Best 7, 12
Fast Start 5, 6, 9, 10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:25 AM

The Hare Wins - Randy Hare
REMINGTON PARK
THE HARE WINS
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2022

Race 1 $15,000 Claiming 6 Furlongs
# 1 – Cato’s Lady Liked the class drop last time now back to the dirt her preferred surface
# 3 – Put a Bow On It 6 of 6 in the $$ this year
# 6 – Reliant 3rd @ this level in last 2 starts
# 5 – Summer Cat Stumbled in her last start after winning 2 previous races
$1 Exacta Box: 1-3-6 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 5: 1-3-6 / 6-3-2 / 3-2-4-5 / 2-4 / 4 Cost: $36.00 Pick the winners of races 1-5.

Race 2 Maiden 7 Furlongs
# 6 – How Bout Me Should like this distance after fading to 4th@ 1-mile last time
# 3 – Lucky Deputy Tries the dirt tonight after finishing 2nd on the turf in last 2 starts
# 2 – Rye Munny Claimed in her last start @KEE & should improve here
# 4 – Miz Call 2nd this summer in debut @CBY & will be L-1 tonight
$1 Exacta Box: 6-3-2 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Premier Pick 4: 6-3-2 / 3-2-4-5 / 2-4 / 4 Cost: $12.00 Pick the winners of races 2-5.

Race 3 $15,000 Claiming 1 Mile
# 3 – Cosmetology Like the class drop for this girl who’s run well on the main track
# 2 - Moro Lingerie Tried the turf last time back to main track here
# 4 – Walk Softly Turf runner tries the dirt
# 5 – Con Suerte Likes the distance the surface is the question
$1 Exacta Box: 3-2-4 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Kickoff Pick 3: 3-2-4-5 / 2-4 / 4 Cost: $4.00 Pick the winners of races 3, 4, 5.

Race 4 Allowance 1 Mile & 70 Yards
# 2 – Catdaddy Always puts in good effort
# 4 – Tiz Life Improves in 2nd start since August & bit longer distance
# 5 – Buddy Reaux Scored nice win in last over wet track
# 1 – Oliver 4th @ this level in last start
$1 Exacta Box: 2-4-5 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 3: 2-4 / 4 / 1-5 Cost: $2.00 Pick the winners of races 4, 5, 6.

Race 5 $10,000 Maiden Claiming 1 Mile
# 4 – Octagon Improved to finish 2nd when dropped to this level
# 3 – Rowdy Gale 2nd & 3rd in last 2 starts
# 5 – Lucky McCoy Has improved with every start
# 8 – Gospel Banker 4th @ this level in last start
$1 Exacta Box: 4-3-5 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 3: 4 / 1-5 / 8-7-10-4 Cost: $4.00 Pick the winners of races 5, 6, 7.

Race 6 $25,000 Maiden Claiming 5-1/2 Furlongs
# 1 – Furious Avenger Good 2nd in debut as the favorite
# 5 – Awesome Outlaw 3rd vs similar company in 2nd start
# 6 – Tequilan Me Smalls Keeps improving
# 7 – Easter Jim Good workouts for first timer
$1 Exacta Box: 1-5-6 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 3: 1-5 / 8-7-10-4 / 2-3 Cost: $8.00 Pick the winners of races 6, 7, 8.
$.50 Primetime Pick 4: 1-5 / 8-7-10-4 / 2-3 / 7-1-10-4 Cost: $32.00 Pick the winners of races 6-9.

Race 7 $7,500 Claiming 7 Furlongs
# 8 – Directional Bit of trouble last time & should like this distance
# 7 – Weird Year Back to more competitive level & main track
# 10 – Race Day Rebel Big class drop @ distance he’s won at
# 4 – Scaryatcanterbury Goes from turf to dirt where he’s 50% in the $$
$1 Exacta Box: 8-7-10 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Last Chance Pick 3: 8-7-10-4 / 2-3 / 7-1-10-4 Cost: $16.00 Pick the winners of races 7, 8, 9.

Race 8 Allowance 5-1/2 Furlongs
# 2 – Mister Wayside 3rd in OK Classics sprint last start
# 3 – Mister K Has been competitive @ this level
# 6 – Texas Skywalker Closing 4th in last start
# 8 – Malibu Thunder Only win was @ this distance
$1 Exacta Box: 2-3-6 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.

Race 9 Maiden 6 Furlongs
# 7 – Demi Solid work tab for debut with bullet 4 furlongs 11-15
# 1 – Happy in Heels Claimed & finished 3rd in her last start
# 10 – Our Davina Back to sprinting & main track
# 4 – Senorita Brooke Improves in her 2nd start
$1 Exacta Box: 7-10-1 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:25 AM

Top Shot - Jerry Shottenkirk
TOP SHOT
Remington Park Selections
Saturday, November 19

1 st Race
3 PUT A BOW ON IT
5 SUMMER CAT
1 CATO’S LADY
6 RELIANT

2 nd Race
3 LUCKY DEPUTY
5 FOREVER LIGHTS
6 HOW BOUT ME
2 RYE MUNNY

3 rd Race
4 WALK SOFTLY
2 MORO LINGERIE
5 CON SUERTE
3 COSMETOLOGY

4 th Race
1 OLIVER
5 BUDDY REAUX
2 CATDADDY
4 TIZ LIFE

5 th Race
4 OCTAGON
1 HOMEGROWN LEGEND
3 ROWDY GALE
6 KONA SNOT

6 th Race
5 AWESOME OUTLAW
1 FURIOUS AVENGER
4 PANDEMIC CAT
2 BABY LIAISON

7 th Race
8 DIRECTIONAL
2 TEXAS PRADO
7 WEIRD YEAR
4 SCARYATCANTERBURY

8 th Race
8 MALIBU THUNDER
3 MISTER K
5 REPLETE
6 TEXAS SKYWALKER

9 th Race
1 HAPPY IN HEELS
10 OUR DAVINA
4 SENORITA BROOKE
7 DEMI

TODAY’S BEST BET
WALK SOFTLY (3rd)

PICK FIVE
(Races 1-5)
3-5-1-6 with 3-5 with 4 with 1-5-2-4 with 4-1 ($32)

PREMIER PICK FOUR
(Races 2-5)
3-5 with 4-2 with 1-5-2-4 with 4-1-3 ($24)

PRIMETIME PICK FOUR
(Races 6-9)
5-1 with 8-2-7-4 with 8-3-5 with 1-10-4 ($36)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:25 AM

Track Announcer - Dale Day
REMINGTON PARK
Dale’s Picks by Track Announcer Dale Day

Race 1
3 Put A Bow On It
5 Summer Cat
1 Cato’s Lady
6 Reliant

Race 2
3 Lucky Deputy
1 Wild Express
4 Miz Cali
5 Forever Lights

Race 3
4 Walk Softly
3 Cosmetology
5 Con Suerte
1 Twentytwentyredo

Race 4
4 Tiz Life
5 Buddy Reaux
1 Oliver
3 Bizzy Legs

Race 5
4 Octagon
6 Kona Shot
5 Lucky McCoy
3 Rowdy Gale

Race 6
1 Furious Avenger
3 Comanche River
5 Awesome Outlaw
4 Pandemic Cat

Race 7
8 Directional
3 Spirit Soul
1 Dreamer’s Delight
9 Klimco

Race 8
5 Replete
6 Texas Skywalker
3 Mister K
4 Ronald Dale

Race 9
7 Demi
4 Senorita Brooke
1 Happy In Heels
9 Girl With Attitude

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:26 AM

Today’s Free Aqueduct Winning Horse Picks
By: horse racing handicapper Reggie Garrett

Free Aqueduct Racing Picks for Saturday, November 19th, 2022:

Post Time: 11:50 ET

LIVE HORSE RACING ODDS

Race 1: 7 Hay Stack
Race 2: 8 Central Speed
Race 3: 2 Jerry the Nipper
Race 4: 2 Endowed

#1 ONLINE RACEBOOK

The following 6 races are part of today’s Aqueduct Pick 6
Race 5: 8 Slip Mahoney
Race 6: 7 Constitutionalawyer
Race 7: 6 Dakota Gold
Race 8: 2 Emperor’s Cause
Race 9: 9 Masterof the Tunes
Race 10: 3 Super Slide

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:26 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 19, 2022

November 18, 2022

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 19 | Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern

Chilukki Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old

Win contenders:

She Can’t Sing (6) moves back to dirt after eight straight races on grass going back to New Year’s Day. She won three of those races, all routes and all stakes, but her best effort of the year came when third behind multiple graded stakes winner Campanelle in the Ladies Sprint Stakes in September, her most recent start prior to the two month layoff she returns from here. Rested for two months since then, the mare put in a very strong half-mile workout on the dirt at Churchill Downs which was the best of 33 on the day. This not only signals she’s ready to run as well as she has in her best races this year, it also shows she really likes the main track at Churchill Downs, where she has won three times and finished second in two others. One of those wins came at the similar distance of seven furlongs a little over a year ago, a race in which She Can’t Sing drew off to win by five lengths, earning a 104 figure. She earned a career-best 108 figure in the Ladies Sprint and both of those figures are better than the best figures of any other horse in this field, which means She Can’t Sing appears to be the one to beat. Additionally, the race she won in October of 2021 came off nearly identical two month layoff to the one she’s coming back from in the Chilukki.

Mariah’s Princess (2) cuts back from a mile and one-sixteenth classified allowance race run around two turns at Keeneland last month. In that race she rallied quickly while four paths wide from fifth to make the lead after about a half-mile had been run and held that lead into the stretch, only to be run down by the winner while clearly holding second by a couple of lengths. She had been away from the races for more than10 months prior to that and won the Mistletoe Stakes right before the layoff, so it was logical she might be a bit short of 100% fit for that last effort. Likely to improve physically in her second start off the layoff and of the career-best 97 speed figure she earned last month, Mariah’s Princess may have a big say in the outcome of this race.

Center Aisle (3) has won five of 11 races in her career. She won three in a row between last October and December, earning a 102 figure in the best of that streak and closing out 2021 with a win in the Sugar Swirl Stakes at the end of the year. She returned in April and ran poorly in two straight races and took more time off. When she returned on October 9, Center Aisle was her old self and got right back into the winner’s circle with a game effort by a head after leading by two lengths. Similar to Mariah’s Princess making her second start off a layoff and leading late then settling for second, Center Aisle gave up a two length lead but held on by a head. She too is likely to be physically stronger second off the layoff and if she can run back to her career-best 102 figure effort she has a shot to earn her sixth career win in her 12th start.

Win bets:

She Can’t Sing (6) should be considered for a win bet at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

Mariah’s Princess (2) and Center Aisle (3) might be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Considering Coach (1) just finished second in a two-turn stakes on dirt following nearly 10 months off, she has potential to be part of the exacta so we’ll include her as well on this ticket as follows:

Mariah’s Princess (2), Center Aisle (3) and She Can’t Sing (6) over Coach (1), Mariah’s Princess (2), Center Aisle (3) and She Can’t Sing (6).

She Can’t Sing (6) over Coach (1), Mariah’s Princess (2) and Center Aisle (3).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:27 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Texas Classic Futurity Pick 4 Analysis: Saturday

November 18, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s stakes lineup at Lone Star Park offers one of the top American Quarter Horse Association cards of 2022. The $1 million Texas Classic Futurity headlines the 11-race program that gets underway at 7:05 pm ET.

Horseplayers utilizing 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can play for an additional $5,000 in the late pick 4 (Races 8-11) in the Hit & Split promotion. Take home your parimutuel winnings along with your share of an additional $5,000 among only other players on those two platforms who also hit the wager. And note that the stakes, Races 6-10, offer a $10 money-back special with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. If your win bet in those races finishes second or third, you’ll get a refund in wagering credits up to $10.

9:25 pm ET | Race 6 | $50,000 Yellow Rose of Texas Stakes

Win machine #5 SS Classyjess goes for her 25th score in her 50th lifetime start as the headliner in this Texas-bred matchup of mares. Her 7 Lone Star victories (from just 12 starts) is more than the field’s total of 5 local scores combined. Triple-digit speed figures and speed index numbers set her apart from these. #4 Best Moonflash finished on the favorite’s flank at Retama in July and being drawn next door can help drag along a rival to their maximum effort. That looks like the exacta.

9:53 pm ET | Race 7 | $50,000 B.F. Phillips Jr. Stakes

State-bred colts and geldings show down in the 400-yard Phillips, a race that essentially re-matches the field from a similar stakes September 24 against 2022 season returnee #9 Jet Black Grace, winner of last year’s $1 million Heritage Place Futurity and last seen fourth in the ’21 Texas Classic Futurity on this card a year ago. Jet Black Grace won 5 of 6 starts as a juvenile and has handled outside posts in the past. #5 His Time To Deal has won 3 of his last 5, including a win over 4 of these same rivals Sept. 24. He exits a solid fourth to the top-class Danjer in the Grade 1 AQHA Challenge Championship in Indianapolis 4 weeks ago. #8 Shott Gun was a Rainbow and All American Derby finalist a year ago and exits perhaps the fastest race of his career last out at Retama albeit in defeat.

10:21 pm ET | Race 8 | $50,000 Texas Classic Juvenile Stakes

The $5,000 pick 4 hit and split begins with the consolation to the Texas Classic Futurity, where qualifiers 11-20 compete in the Texas Classic Juvenile. Oklahoma and Heritage Place Futurity winner #8 Tres Crystals tries to get back to his spring form at Remington Park off back-to-back losses. #7 San Lorenzo Ivory also was one of the top 2-year-olds in Oklahoma City this spring, and he’s 7-for-7 in the exacta lifetime. Anyone beyond these two would be a surprise, though #9 JMG Apollitical Capo comes off a nice trial win and was runner-up in the Sam Houston Futurity final.

10:49 pm ET | Race 9 | $350,000 Grade 1 Texas Classic Derby

#5 KJ Desperado and #8 San Lorenzo Tay, 1-2 finishers in last year’s Texas Classic Futurity, are back at it in the Derby at 440 yards. San Lorenzo Tay is 0-for-3 at the trip, while KJ Desperado has won 5 of 6 with a runner-up in his 440-yard bids. Big advantage to the 6-5 morning line favorite KJ Desperado, who is 3-for-3 at Lone Star Park and towers over this field on numbers. All American Derby runner-up #6 Delight Us All is in career form right now, as is Ruidoso and Rainbow Derby finalist #1 The Big Favorite. But #5 KJ Desperado looks like a single in this sequence.

11:17 pm ET | Race 10 | $1,000,000 Texas Classic Futurity

Two nights of trials were held Oct. 27 and 28 to gather the 10 finalists for the 400-yard Texas Classic Futurity. Horses on Oct. 27 ran into a headwind; those from Oct. 28 benefitted from a tailwind. Don’t get too sold on raw times. #9 Doin It Just For Fun led the Oct. 27 qualifiers and its notable that he posted the day’s best time from post 3, while all other qualifiers were from posts 5-8. The outside of the track may have been better, and Doin It Just For Fun was still best on the Oct. 27. As for the Day 2 qualifiers on Oct. 28, note #10 Turcotte and #3 Rock a Jess V qualified earlier in the card when there was less tailwind, and the later-day trial runners had more favorable conditions to go faster. The morning line maker looks to have this one right with #9 Doin It Just for Fun at 7-5 and #3 Rock a Jess V at 8-5, but spruce up your exotics with #10 Turcotte at a juicy 20-1 offering as the ‘other’ qualifier for the jockey-trainer tandem of Juan Pulido and Santos Carrizales Jr.

11:45 pm ET | Race 11 | maiden

This late pick four looks focused with a 2x1x2 play into the finale, a maiden 2-year-old dash at 350 yards. Some of these drop out of the Texas Classic Futurity trials, including #10 Politics Gone Wild. Like the draw here and this is a well-meant gelding who was sent to the Rainbow Futurity and All American Futurity trials prior. This is not a typical, 5-race maiden resume. He was fourth at 6-5 in a local straight maiden 2 starts back, but that was from the rail. There’s room to breathe outside of this pack and he’s the play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-19-2022, 07:27 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - November 19, 2022

November 19, 2022

“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – DEL MAR
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).

*

NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT RACES:

Del Mar Fifth Race: Post: 2:30 PT
Top Pick: 9-Seal Team (7/2)
Debuting 2-year-old has done some excellent work in the morning for trainer Richard Mandella, and while first-timers from this barn have underperformed of late (to put it mildly), this son of War Front may be able to buck the trend. He appears to be blessed with excellent gate speed, and with a pedigree that screams grass this athletic colt looks very much like a live item under Flavien Prat. At 7/2 on the morning line, he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

Churchill Downs Sixth Race: Post: 5:35 ET
Top Pick: 1-Coach (9/5)
This genuine and consistent filly is undefeated in a pair of one-turn races (her first two career starts, victories by a combined 14 lengths) and this drop back from a series of 10 consecutive route events should allow the daughter of Commissioner to achieve her peak performance. Fast on figures and a stakes winner over the Churchill Downs main track, the Brad Cox-trained filly should have enough early speed to use her rail post to good advantage and then be able exert her superiority when the pressure is tuned on from the quarter pole to the wire. Listed at 9/5 on the morning line, she will offer solid wagering value at that price if you can get it.

*

DEL MAR RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-5)
1st race: 1-Doc Adams; 4-Worse Read Sanchez; 5-Beaudacious
2nd race: 4-Joker Boy; 1-Bochombo; 6-Micky From Wexford
3rd race: 2-Pammy’s Ready; 1-Countess Rosina; 4-Lexington Humor
4th race: 5-Little Rachel; 6-Bowl of Cherries; 1-So It Would Seem
5th race: 9-Seal Team

(Races 6-10)
6th race: 6-Blessed Touch; 1-Justique
7th race: 3-Quintecents; 1-One More Bid; 5-Six Magpies
8th race: 4-Big City Lights; 5-The Chosen Vron; 6-None Above the Law
9th race: 5-Kitty Kitana; 4-Gillian Elizabeth