Friday 11/4/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Kristpicks

breeders' cup at keeneland - friday, november 04, 2022

- day one selections for november 04 -



race 6: 10 - tyler's tribe 15-1
5 - mischief magic 8-1
11 - speed boat beach 6-1

race 7: 5 - wonder wheel 5-1
10 - chocolate gelato 7-2
8 - atomically 12-1

race 8: 11 - g laurie 12-1
12 - midnight mile 10-1
5 - pleasant passage 12-1

race 9: 4 - forte 4-1
3 - cave rock 4-5
5 - verifying 10-1

race 10: 4 - silver knott 3-1
9 - nagirroc 20-1
2 - packs a wahlop 6-1

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Picks & Plays for Friday, November 4
by David Aragona


Race 1: 3 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 10 - 3 - 9 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 12 - 7 - 4
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 6 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 7 - 4 - 8 - 2
PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)


RACE 1: AVANT (#3)

I want to lean towards experience in this one-mile maiden event for two-year-old fillies. Fireline (#7) could go favored after taking some money when she debuted for Chad Brown last month going 6 1/2 furlongs in the slop. She was outrun early and then couldn’t match strides with her well meant stablemate Good Sam, who really turned on the speed through the stretch. This daughter of Arrogate seems like one who will appreciate added ground, and she’s bred to have ability, out of a graded stakes-winning dam. The drawback is that Chad Brown is just 5 for 31 (16%, $1.37 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt routes over the past 5 years. I prefer the other second time starter in this field. Avant (#3) switches surfaces after making her debut on the turf at Saratoga. She was fairly one-paced that day, never showing any turn of foot after racing 3-wide on the turns. However, she got a pretty conservative ride from Irad Ortiz, never asked for her best at any point in the race. She had trained pretty well on dirt prior to that start, and it seems like she’s continued to train forwardly since then. She’s bred to handle dirt as a daughter of Uncle Mo out of dam who produced dirt stakes winner Sower in addition to other siblings who preferred this surface. Todd Pletcher is a solid 10 for 30 (33%, $1.62 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from turf to dirt routes over the past 5 years. There are some first time starters with interesting pedigrees, including the Into Mischief-sired half-sister to Scat Daddy, Accidental Icon (#5). However, Bill Mott doesn’t do particularly well with first time starters in dirt routes.

WIN: #3 Avant, at 5-2 or greater


RACE 7: SPUN SPECIAL (#5)

Likely favorite Sweetlou’sgotaces (#12) should be pretty formidable if she repeats either of her first two performances. She outran her odds to nearly cause a major upset on debut at Saratoga, striking the lead in mid-stretch before getting run down late. Her connections stepped her up into the Grade 3 Matron as a maiden and she ran pretty well, all things considered. She got bumped hard coming out of the gate and was last early before making some late progress to pass half the field. She’s now getting significant class relief as she drops back in against maiden company and should be tough to beat. The alternatives that I would consider are those who don’t yet have turf experience, as none of those who have run on turf appear to be in the same league as the favorite. First time starter Galileo’s Jewel (#7) is pretty interesting. This is hardly her first attempt to launch her career, as she’s been rained off the turf a few times since the beginning of the meet. She was a $714k RNA at Tattersalls last year, and possess an excellent European turf pedigree. She’s by top sire Kingman out of a dam who is a half-sister to three European G1 winners, Alpha Centauri, Alpine Star, and Discoveries. She has reportedly trained well and Tony Dutrow has had some success with firsters recently. My top pick is Spun Special (#5). This filly has run decently on dirt, but I like the surface switch for her. Hard Spun is a solid turf influence and the unraced dam has produced one turf winner, Eve of War. Her second dam Bedanken was a 7-time stakes winner on turf, so there’s definitely pedigree for her to move up on this surface. Leah Gyarmati is 3 for 18 (17%, $3.97 ROI) with horses switching to turf for the first time over the past 5 years.

WIN: #5 Spun Special, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 7,12


RACE 8: LA VICTORIA (#4)

I suppose either Know It All Audrey (#5) or Mia Bea Star (#1) will be tough for this group to handle if they run back to their efforts at the starter allowance level last Thursday. I’m just a little skeptical that either one will run to that same level as they return on just 8 days’ rest. Know It All Audrey in particularly seems worth fading, as she figures to be a very short price once again. She had the pace in her favor when she got the job done last time and now she’s arguably stepping up against a tougher field. I actually thought Mia Bea Star ran the better race, as she made a strong move coming off the far turn before flattening out late. She handles a mile and has been rounding back into form for Randi Persaud. However, I want to go in a different direction. I’m pretty intrigued by La Victoria (#4) getting back on the dirt. The first couple of starts of her career on the main track were obviously disappointing. However, it is worth noting that she was against a severe rail bias in her only fast track attempt on debut. I thought she actually ran pretty well when she stretched out on dirt in that off the turf race in July 2021, and then they abandoned dirt. She’s subsequently improved in the overall sense, though I’ve never really liked her as a turf horse. She’s obviously trained well on dirt in recent weeks and I think she deserves another chance to prove she can handle this surface.

WIN: #4 La Victoria, at 7-2 or greater


RACE 9: W W FITZY (#6)

I imagine that First to Act (#3) will attract support in this Turnback the Alarm merely because she finished second to Nest in her most recent start. However, she wasn’t remotely competitive with that standout 3-year-old filly while nevertheless running on well for second. She comes into this race owning some of the fastest speed figures and she obviously handles the distance. I view her as the horse to beat and recognize that she still has upside in just her seventh career start. However, I don’t think she’s so likely to win that I would want to accept a short price in a fairly competitive race. Battle Bling (#7) and Coach (#5) faced off at Laurel last time where the former notched her second victory in a row. However, that was Coach’s first time start since last winter and she gave a solid account of herself. I was somewhat troubled by the way she seemed to disengage on the turn before coming on again in the stretch, but perhaps she wasn’t handling the sloppy track. Both make sense here, but I wanted to go in another direction. W W Fitzy (#6) could be the best price of those I’ve mentioned here and I think she has as strong a chance to win as anyone. She has the right running style for this race, and is drawn well outside of main rival First to Act. This is an interesting trainer switch to Tom Morley, who got longshot Dynadrive to win off a similar switch from Robertino Diodoro for Flying P earlier in the year. I prefer this spot for her to the sprint stakes she was entered in last week. A repeat of the 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned last time at Saratoga makes her competitive, and she was flattered by the subsequent victory of the runner-up in that spot.

WIN: #6 W W Fitzy, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 3


RACE 10: CARIBBEAN BREEZE (#7)

Showemyourheels (#8) could go favored here despite disappointing as the favorite in an off-the-turf affair last time. She ran quite well on turf in her career debut at Saratoga two back, and would appear to prefer this surface. However, that was a sprint and now she’s being asked to stretch out in distance. She is bred to got this far on the dam’s side. Furthermore, Danny Gargan is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.92 ROI) maidens stretching out on turf over the past 5 years. I’m not against her, but I do think a couple of other rivals are interesting at better prices. First time starter Sweetness (#4) merits respect for dangerous connections. Jorge Abreu has an excellent record with his debut runners, and he’s 4 for 9 (44%, $6.88 ROI) with first time starters on turf for owner Lawrence Goichman. This filly is by solid turf sire Oscar Performance and is a half-sister to multiple turf winners, including turf specialist Shawdyshawdyshawdy. My top pick is second time starter Caribbean Breeze (#7). I thought this filly showed some potential on debut, where she raced very greenly. She was climbing on the backstretch after getting outrun early, seeming to react badly to kickback on the dirt. However, she actually stayed on well late, passing half the field in the stretch. Now she switches surfaces for her second start. The dam was best on turf as a racehorse, though she hasn’t yet produced a surface winner, and this filly is a daughter of emerging turf sire Mendelssohn. Brad Cox is 5 for 22 (23%, $3.12 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from dirt sprints to turf routes over the past 5 years.

WIN: #7 Caribbean Breeze, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4,8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mr. Ed's Breeders' Cup picks for Friday

By Ed Sehon

Keeneland Race 6 (3 p.m. ET/noon PT)

BC Juvenile Turf Sprint

Top selection #2 Love Reigns (4-1 morning line). Fourth-place finish at Ascot vs. tough field better than it looks. Bounce-back win at Spa impressive. Ward-Irad Ortiz duo makes it pour … Don’t overlook undefeated #11 Speed Boat Beach (6-1) as Prat climbs aboard son of BC Classic winner Bayern for Baffert … Import #12 The Platinum Queen (7-2) completes trifecta … Longshot: #9 Sharp Aza Tack (15-1). Precocious breeding.

Keeneland Race 7 (3:40 p.m. ET/12:40 p.m. PT)

BC Juvenile Fillies

Welcome to Chalk City. Very hard to separate the top three. I’ll take #7 Chop Chop (4-1 morning line) to Win for top trainer Cox, turf specialist Rosario and namesake Angel Cordero. A recipe for tasty salad … Second choice is very quick #10 Chocolate Gelato (7-2). Pletcher trains, Irad rides … Mark Casse sends out improving Grade 1-tested #5 Wonder Wheel (5-1) … Longshot: #14 Raging Sea (8-1) impeded in tough post.

Keeneland Race 8 (4:20 p.m. ET/1:20 p.m. PT)

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

Looking for a price play? Try lucky #13 Xigera (8-1 morning line). Trainer Bauer returns filly to turf after bumpy ride on dirt in Grade 1 Alcibiades last month. Gal’s my Win pick … Place choice is #10 Meditate (4-1) for Britishers Aidan O’Brian and Ryan Moore. She’s never been out of money. What’s to think about? … Show time for #4 Free Look (5-1). Brown and Prat dynamite duo … Longshot: #3 Last Call (20-1) is Canadian deep closer.

Keeneland Race 9 (5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT)

BC Juvenile

Backstretch Special. Anytime a groom, a hot walker and a men’s room attendant tout the same horse, Mr. Ed listens. My pricy play is #5 Verifying (10-1 morning line). Cox and Rosario poised for big two days. Trust but verify … Place pick is is odds-on choice #3 Cave Rock (4-5) for Baffert. Never been headed. Box in Exactas … Show horse is #4 Forte (4-1) for Pletcher and Irad … Longshot: Despite outside post, Baffert’s #10 National Treasure (8-1) worth Exotics investment.

Keeneland Race 10 (5:40 p.m. ET/2:40 p.m. PT).

BC Juvenile Turf

My Win selection #8 I’m Very Busy (9-2 morning line) is a hard-charging colt for Brown and Prat. I’m counting on firm going to set up his exceptional closing kick … “Catman” confident his seasoned youngster #6 Andthewinneris (5-1) has winning way. I have him second … For third, improving #2 Packs a Wahlop (6-1) ships in from West Coast, retains crafty Mike Smith … Longshot: Having visited Omaha Beach this past summer, a very moved Mr. Ed just had to include #5 Battle of Normandy (20-1) in superfectas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for Friday's Breeders' Cup races 11/4

By Dave Tuley

Without further ado, here are my team’s top plays for the 5 BC races on Friday, which used to be Ladies Day, but is now being billed as “Futures Stars Friday” with all juvenile races.
Keeneland Race 6 — Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (3 p.m. ET)

John Avello likes three contenders in the opening BC race. “I have three, in no particular order, worth considering: #2 Love Reigns (4-1) has a win over the Keeneland turf for excellent team of Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz Jr. #7 Oxymore (8-1) has run three solid races for Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. Turning back from good post. For a price, look for #10 Tyler’s Tribe (15-1) to outrun his odds. He’s a proven winner at 5-for-5.”

Duane Colucci likes #12 The Platinum Queen (7-2 morning line). “This overseas runner is ultra sharp right now. Note that this colt has faced and beaten several older horses twice as a 2-year-old, which is pretty much unheard of. Should handle this field. Bet 12 to Win and key 12 over 3,5,11 in Exactas, Trifecta and reverse.”

Dave Tuley likes #9 Sharp Aza Tack (15-1 morning line). “This 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint is obviously full of speed, but we’ll go with Sharp Aza Tack as our value play. She won her maiden race, romped in a minor stakes at Monmouth and then gave up the lead late at 6 1/2 furlongs at Kentucky Downs, so the cutback in distance should help. She also lost that last race as the favorite, which is why we’re getting such a generous price here. I always list my plays in 1-2-3-Longshot form for those betting vertically (Exactas, Trifectas, etc. within a race) or horizontally (Doubles, Pick 3s, etc. across multiple races). 1. #9 Sharp Aza Tack (15-1), 2. #11 Speed Boat Beach (6-1), 3. #12 The Platinum Queen (7-2), Longshot #10 Tyler’s Tribe (15-1).”
Keeneland Race 7 — Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (3:40 p.m. ET)

John Avello likes #7 Chop Chop (4-1 morning line). “Chop Chop has top trainer Brad Cox and will be under jockey Joel Rosario. She’s won 2-of-3 with only blemish a nose loss at Keeneland. #8 Atomically (12-1) has captured two consecutive stakes. Two works, good post both positives. My long shot is #3 Sabra Tuff (30-1). If she can get out of the gate for Dallas Stewart, look for her deep in the stretch at big odds.”

Dave Tuley likes #2 You’re My Girl (10-1 morning line). “This is a tough call as I see this race as wide-open (but, heck, I see most races as more wide-open than other people see them as that’s why I feel justified in trying to beat the chalk). Anyway, I also really like #14 Raging Sea (8-1), but she drew the far outside post, so I give the edge to You’re My Girl to grab the early lead and hold off Chocolate Gelato (who beat her in the Gazette) and the other late challengers. 1. You’re My Girl (10-1), 2. #10 Chocolate Gelato (7-2), 3. Chop Chop (4-1), Longshot #14 Raging Sea (8-1).”

Duane Colucci likes #11 American Rockette (20-1 morning line). “If trainer Bill Mott teaches this horse to run straight (and you know he can), she will be a major player. She has had trouble bolting wide in her last two starts. Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado have had great success this year and she should have pace to run at. Bet 11 to Win and key 11 over 2,7,10 in Exactas, Trifecta and reverse.”

Duane Colucci also likes a Pick 4 starting with Race No. 7 (costs $80)

Race 7: 2,3,7,10,11

Race 8: 5,9,10,11

Race 9: 3,4

Race 10: 1,2,4,8

Keeneland Race 8 — Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (4:20 p.m. PT)

John Avello likes #5 Free Look (5-1). “She should be close to the pace and able to score late. I saw her impressive win at Saratoga. Aidan O’Brian import #10 Meditate (4-1) has proven ability with 4 wins over European grass. Finally, don’t write off #12 Midnight Mile (10-1), who is 2-for-2 for low-profile connections. Serious player at price.”

John Lauro likes #5 Pleasant Passage (12-1 morning line). “My Best Bet on Friday is Pleasant Passage in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. She is training incredible. She is 12-1 on the morning line and I suspect she’ll be half that.”

Dave Tuley also likes #5 Pleasant Passage (12-1 morning line). “I love that Lauro and I landed on this 2-year-old filly separately. She wired the field in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, one of the key prep for this race, which our North American horses usually dominate (as opposed to a lot of the turf races where we look for live foreign invaders). I’m looking for Pleasant Passage to lead this wire-to-wire and stamp herself as the best in the 2-year-old turf division. As it turns out, we’re pretty much boxing our team’s top plays (see above, plus Mr. Ed’s column): 1. #5 Pleasant Passage (12-1), 2. #5 Free Look (5-1), 3. #13 Xigera (13-1), Longshot #2 Cairo Consort.”
Keeneland Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (5 p.m. ET)

Dave Tuley likes #4 Forte (4-1 morning line). “Bob Baffert’s undefeated Cave Rock (4-5 morning-line favorite) is getting most of the attention, but we can’t take an odds-on favorite on BC Weekend (or any day for that matter!). If he wires this field, we’ll take our lumps as he will have earned it with plenty of other early speed demons to compromise his chances. We see the speed duel setting up a closer like Forte, who has come from behind to win the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga and the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, or Blazing Sevens, who rallied to win the Grade 1 Champagne. 1. #4 Forte (4-1), 2. #6 Blazing Sevens (6-1), 3. #3 Cave Rock (4-5), Longshot #10 National Treasure (8-1).”
Keeneland Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (5:40 p.m. ET)

Duane Colucci likes #2 Packs a Wahlop (6-1 morning line). “This Jeff Mullins runner closed out the Del Mar meet in awesome fashion and continued his winning ways at Santa Anita. Solid Ragozin speed figures and money Mike Smith is in the saddle to ensure a good trip. Mullins has a $2.42 ROI in stakes races. Bet 2 to Win and key 2 over 1,4,8 in Exactas, Trifecta and reverse.”

Dave Tuley likes #9 Nagirroc (20-1 morning line). “Trainer Graham Motion (who certainly knows what he’s doing) stretches out this sprint for this 1-mile turf race. Nagirroc can steal this like he did in his debut or sit just off the pace like he did in his stakes debut in the Grade 3 Futurity at Aqueduct. Motion wheeled him back in two weeks after the maiden win because he felt he had something special and wanted to earn a BC berth. He should be there the whole way at a juicy price. 1. Nagirroc (20-1), 2. #4 Silver Knott (3-1), 3. #2 Packs a Wahlop, Longshot #14 Gaslight Dancer (30-1).”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Plonk: Breeders' Cup Favorites: Boom or Bust?

By Jeremy Plonk

Friday and Saturday’s 14 championship races at the Breeders’ Cup are among the most rewarding handicapping challenges on the horse racing calendar each year. The evaluation of these races, which match the best from America and the world, starts with the query: Can you beat the favorite?

Let’s look at the races in order from Friday to Saturday with a closer inspection of the morning line (or presumptive) favorites.
Juvenile Turf Sprint

Favorite: The Platinum Queen (7-2)

Case For: Historic victory by this 2-year-old filly against older males in a French Group 1 sprint on Oct. 2 puts her in a powerful position back against only fellow 2-year-olds in this race.

Case Against: She drew post 12 and that’s difficult because of potential ground loss on the turn. Further, she’s never raced around a turn, only straightaway dashes in Europe.

Bottom Line: Very vulnerable.

Related News

Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for Friday's Breeders' Cup races 11/4
Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for Friday's Breeders' Cup races 11/4
Dave Tuley | November 03
Mr. Ed's Breeders' Cup picks for Friday
Mr. Ed's Breeders' Cup picks for Friday
Ed Sehon | November 03
Jeremy Plonk's Horse Racing picks for 11/3
Jeremy Plonk | November 02

Juvenile Fillies

Favorite: Chocolate Gelato (7-2)

Case For: Winner of New York’s Frizette Stakes, which has produced more Breeders’ Cup winners in any of the divisions than any other lead-in race. Trainer Todd Pletcher exits a strong performance at the Keeneland Fall Meet where his runners won a trio of Grade 1 stakes races.

Case Against: The final half-mile of the Frizette was disappointingly slow even in victory, and this filly has yet to race around 2 turns in her career. Pletcher has struggled in the Juvenile Fillies with an 0-14 record all-time.

Bottom Line: Somewhat vulnerable.
Juvenile Fillies Turf

Favorite: Meditate (4-1)

Case For: Irish filly has finished first or second in all 6 career starts, including back-to-back Group 1 races in the UK. Trainer Aidan O’Brien’s $27 million in career earnings at the Breeders’ Cup ranks second in the event’s history.

Case Against: The Juvenile Fillies Turf will be the longest race of her career and first time extending around any turns, much less two of them from a wider, post position 10. She was beaten as the 8-5 and 1-1 favorites in her last two when runner-up. For all of O’Brien’s success in the BC, he’s 0-15 in this particular division.

Bottom Line: Very vulnerable.
Juvenile

Favorite: Cave Rock (4-5)

Case For: He’s absolutely crushed all 3 fields he faced, including Grade 1 races at Del Mar (around 1 turn) and Santa Anita (2 turns). He has the best early and late speed in this race and should be first or second throughout with little excuse for a bad trip. Bob Baffert has won this race 5 times, the most of any trainer.

Case Against: This will be his first road trip outside California.

Bottom Line: Very dependable.
Juvenile Turf

Favorite: Silver Knott (3-1)

Case For: A winner in 3 of his last 4 races in England, including 2 of those around a turn, this one is heavily favored as low as 6-4 among the British Bookmakers. Trainer Charlie Appleby won this race last year and has a ridiculous 6-for-11 record in Breeders’ Cup races, easily the best strike rate all-time. He has drawn a positive post position in the 4-hole.

Case Against: He was defeated on soft ground in the Champagne at 3-5 odds and will be making his first trip outside England.

Bottom Line: Dependable.
Filly and Mare Sprint

Favorite: Goodnight Olive (3-1)

Case For: She rolls into Breeders’ Cup with a 5-race winning streak and not really challenged late in any of those. Filly is 3-for-3 at the 7-furlong distance needed Saturday and has the ability to relax just off what looks to be a fast pace. And, she’s already a proven winner at Keeneland.

Case Against: None against her, but the competition includes last year’s Filly and Mare Sprint winner Ce Ce as well as another Breeders’ Cup champ from 2021, Juvenile Fillies winner Echo Zulu.

Bottom Line: Very dependable.

Turf Sprint

Favorite: Golden Pal (2-1)

Case For: Defending Turf Sprint champion also won the Juvenile Turf Sprint, so he’s seeking a third title at the Breeders’ Cup. Golden Pal has dominated his Keeneland attempts, winning all 4. Trainer Wesley Ward far and away is Keeneland’s leading trainer in turf sprint races.

Case Against: He has not been quite as brilliant in 2022 as 2021, particularly in the first 50 yards from the gate. If he’s not able to daylight the pack early, he could succumb to a better finisher late.

Bottom Line: Somewhat vulnerable.
Dirt Mile

Favorite: Cody’s Wish (5-2)

Case For: He’s just a neck away from 7 straight victories, and defeated America’s sprint champion Jackie’s Warrior last time out at Saratoga. He’s 5-for-5 at the one-mile distance. Sired by Curlin, whose offspring handle Keeneland very well.

Case Against: All 5 of his mile victories came in 1-turn miles, and this will be a rare, 2-turn start for him (0-2 around a pair of turns). He has not carried more than 120 pounds in a race this year and picks up 6-8 pounds while facing his toughest test. Note: reasonable chance public leans toward Laurel River as the post-time favorite.

Bottom Line: Vulnerable.
Filly and Mare Turf

Favorite: Nashwa (5-2)

Case For: European 3-year-old fillies have had a strong hand in this race in recent years, and this French Oaks winner has proven to be high-class against Europe’s best older fillies and mares. Her four races closest to the 1 3/16 miles distance for Saturday have netted 3 victories and a narrow runner-up. Trainer John Gosden has secured 5 Breeders’ Cup trophies in his illustrious career.

Case Against: Favorites have lost the Filly and Mare Turf 8 straight years, the longest current skid in any Breeders’ Cup division. Nashwa was defeated when second by three-quarters of a length in the Prix de l’Opera in France in her only start since July.

Bottom Line: Dependable.
Sprint

Favorite: Jackie’s Warrior (4-5)

Case For: Reigning champion sprinter in America, Jackie’s Warrior easily has the most early speed in this race and could find himself in a potent, lone-speed situation. He finished first or second in all 5 starts this year with this race circled as the goal throughout the campaign. And, he’s 4-for-5 lifetime at the 6-furlong distance. The defection of Jack Christopher from this race removed his most difficult potential rival.

Case Against: The worst race of his career sprinting came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint when a tiring sixth after an excruciating early duel. He was defeated in his most recent start when bet to 15 cents on the dollar at Saratoga, by Dirt Mile morning line favorite Cody’s Wish.

Bottom Line: Very dependable.
Mile

Favorite: Modern Games (7-2)

Case For: European is 2-for-2 raiding North America, winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and adding the Woodbine Mile in September of this year. Trainer Charlie Appleby, a fantastic 6-for-11 in the Breeders’ Cup heading into this year, won the 2021 Mile with Space Blues, and this one is arguably better-equipped.

Case Against: This will be his seventh straight Group 1/Grade 1 start and a second intercontinental trip in less than 2 months. The wear of a difficult campaign could show at some point. Upset by a 33-1 shot when finishing second Oct. 15, coming back quicker in 3 weeks’ time.

Bottom Line: Somewhat vulnerable.

Distaff

Favorite: Nest (9-5)

Case For: Smashing winner of 3 straight races since her historic bid in the Belmont Stakes came up just short in second. She won Keeneland’s premier 3-year-old filly stakes in the spring by more than 8 lengths, so the course and distance are snuggly checked off already. Trainer Todd Pletcher won 3 Grade 1 stakes at the recently concluded Keeneland Fall Meet.

Case Against: The best horse she’s defeated in her career to date has been Secret Oath, who is a 15-1 shot in this year’s Distaff. Her four overmatched rivals in the Beldame hardly guaranteed that she can handle the best of the older fillies and mares in America. In a recent workout in tandem with elder stablemate and Distaff rival Malathaat, it was her opponent who appeared stronger of the pair. And beyond Malathaat, there are several very good challengers in this race to accept a short price.

Bottom Line: Vulnerable.
Turf

Favorite: Rebel’s Romance (3-1)

Case For: Breeders’ Cup strongman Charlie Appleby, as noted previously, has a 6-for-11 mark in the championships all-time and won last year’s Turf with Yibir, a lesser candidate than this year’s favorite. English-based, he’s proven worthy of travel with back-to-back German Group 1 stakes wins. He’s carried 132 pounds in recent tries and gets a rare weight break to 126 for this test. He’s 4-for-4 at the Turf distance of 1 1/2 miles.

Case Against: He was steered clear of Europe’s best races in England and France this year, and while unbeaten in 4 starts in 2022, he was favored in all and won by more than one length just once.

Bottom Line: Dependable.
Classic

Favorite: Flightline (3-5)

Case For: Undefeated star has never even been tested for his best, winning by margins between 6-19 lengths in 5 lifetime races. That biggest margin came most recently in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, his first attempt around 2 turns and first try at the Classic’s 1 1/4 miles distance. He passed with an A+ performance that drew comparisons to Secretariat’s 1973 Belmont Stakes. He’s proven capable of travel, routing New York’s Grade 1 Met Mile in June.

Case Against: This will be by far the toughest field he’s faced, and no doubt Pegasus World Cup winner Life Is Good will be the fastest pacesetter he’s had to chase. You never know how a horse will react when the proverbial schoolyard bully finds things challenging for the first time.

Bottom Line: Very dependable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Breeders' Cup Selections

November 1, 2022 | By Jon White

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (FRIDAY)
(Note: Official Morning-Line Odds by Nick Tammaro)

1. LOVE REIGNS (4-1 on the morning line)
Trainer wins this race for 4th straight year?

2. PRIVATE CREED (12-1)
Off-the-pace type helped by likely fast pace

3. THE PLATINUM QUEEN (7-2)
Classy French filly’s first race around a turn

Nice-price danger: AMERICAN APPLE (20-1)
A juicy “Apple” at 20-1 ML off G3 BAQ win

$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)

1. CHOCOLATE GELATO (7-2)
Can provide Pletcher with his first win in this race

2. WONDER WHEEL (5-1)
Sent from rail in G1 victory; stalking trip here?

3. CHOP CHOP (4-1)
Huge effort to lose by nose to Wonder Wheel

Nice-price danger: GRAND LOVE (20-1)
Threat at very nice price off one back at Saratoga

Nice-price danger: ATOMICALLY (12-1)
Emphatic Gulfstream win in first 2-turn race

$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)

1. LAST CALL (20-1)
G1 Natalma win + Dettori + 20-1 ML = top pick

2. MEDIATE (4-1)
ML chalk major player off fine European form

3. DELIGHT (6-1)
Sports 5-length G2 win on Keeneland lawn

Nice-price danger: PLEASANT PASSAGE (12-1)
Improving and has pair of route starts under her belt

$2 MILLION JUVENILE (FRIDAY)

1. CAVE ROCK (4-5)
Should rock and roll and stay undefeated

2. NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1)
Youngster has much upside; Baffert exacta?

3. FORTE (4-1)
Two-time G1 winner warrants respect

Nice-price danger: VERIFYING (10-1)
Justify colt kin to champion Midnight Bisou

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (FRIDAY)

1. SILVER KNOTT (3-1)
Trainer won 2021 renewal with Modern Games

2. PACKS A WAHLOP (6-1)
Been wahloping Southern California turf foes

3. VICTORIA ROAD (8-1)
G3 victor in France cuts back to one mile

Nice-price danger: MAJOR DUDE (10-1)
Won turf debut; sharp Oct. 21 drill; post concern

$1 MILLION FILLY & MARE SPRINT (SATURDAY)

1. OBLIGATORY (8-1)
Benefits from rapid pace; turns tables on Olive?

2. GOODNIGHT OLIVE (3-1)
Not a sleeper as she seeks her 6th win in a row

3. CE CE (4-1)
Makes final career start; took this race in 2021

Nice-price danger: CHI TOWN LADY (20-1)
Comes running late under Prat to hit board?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Hare Wins - Randy Hare
THE HARE WINS
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Race 1 $5,000 Claiming 7 Furlongs
# 2 – Dixieland Candy Closed well vs tougher company in her last start
# 5 – Flyta Back to more competitive level after trying turf in last start
# 1 – Faded Memories Should like the class drop
# 6 – Facester Claimed when she won 9-23 drops in claiming price here
$1 Exacta Box: 2-5-1 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 5: 2-5-1 / 5-7-11 / 1-5 / 1-5 / 3-2-1 Cost: $54.00 Pick the winners of races 1-5.

Race 2 Allowance About 5 Furlongs (turf)
# 5 – Ace Gilford (MTO) Won his last 2 of 3 starts sprinting on the main track
# 7 – Let’s Go Alamo 2nd @ this level on 9-21& has 4 wins @5 furlongs on turf
# 11 – Sunday Bling Tries the turf for 2nd time
# 2 – Elusive War Speedy guy tries the turf
$1 Exacta Box: 5-7-11 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Premier Pick 4: 5-7-11 / 1-5 / 1-5 / 3-2-1 Cost: $18.00 Pick the winners of races 2-5.

Race 3 $20,000 Claiming 6 Furlongs
# 1 – Yankee Indian 5 of 6 in the $$ this year
# 5 – Avenging Warrior Like the drop to claiming company
# 4 – Kwontro Makes first start since scoring 2 wins in a row in May @WRD
# 7 – Lava Bomb Winner of first 2 starts @WRD & was 3rd in Oklahoma Stallion Stakes
$1 Exacta Box: 1-5-4 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Kick Off Pick 3: 1-5 / 1-5 / 3-2-1 Cost: $6.00 Pick the winners of races 3, 4, 5.

Race 4 $25,000 Maiden Claiming 6 Furlongs
# 1 – Candy Tap 2nd in her debut here on 9-8
# 5 – Tacha Gold Solid workouts for her debut
# 3 – Mazi Bit of a class drop for this girl
# 4 – Lalia Has good workouts for first start since May @SRP
$1 Exacta Box: 1-5-3 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 3: 1-5 / 3-2-1 / 9-6 Cost: $6.00 Pick the winners of races 4, 5, 6.

Race 5 Maiden 5-1/2 Furlongs
# 3 – Stella G 2nd & 3rd in last 2 starts @ this level
# 2 – Endless Grace Bullet 4-furlong gate workout on 10-22 for her debut
# 1 – Catale Winemixer Solid workouts for her racing debut
# 5 – The Vegas Bomb Nicely bred filly should run well in her debut
$1 Exacta Box: 3-2-1 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 3: 3-2-1 / 9-6 / 11-9 Cost: $6.00 Pick the winners of races 5, 6, 7.

Race 6 $15,000 Claiming About 5 Furlongs (turf)
# 9 – Mia Baby Gets class @ best distance & surface
# 6 – Still of the Night Horrible trip in her last dash
# 4 – Missiszippy Bling 2nd @ this level & distance in last start
# 8 – Heatin Up Has 1st & 2nd in last 2 turf races
$1 Exacta Box: 9-6-4 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Pick 3: 9-6 / 11-9 / 9-6-10-7 Cost: $8.00 Pick the winners of races 6, 7, 8.
$.50 Primetime Pick 4: 9-6 / 11-9 / 9-6-10-7 / 1-6-2-8 Cost: $32.00 Pick the winners of races 6-9.

Race 7 $10,000 Claiming 6 Furlongs
# 11 – Get Out Tonight Drops in class after finishing 3rd in her first start since June
# 9 – Bling Moon 2nd @ this level in her last 2 starts
# 1 – Cupids Love Improved to finish 3rd in first start with state bred company
# 6 – Oteka Be Fast Wide trip in her last start
$1 Exacta Box: 11-9-1 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
$.50 Last Chance Pick 3: 11-9 / 9-6-10-7 / 1-6-2-8 Cost: $16.00 Pick the winners of races 7, 8, 9.

Race 8 Maiden 5-1/2 Furlongs
# 9 – Ruby the Destroyer Bullet workout on 10-28 to add to string of solid workouts
# 6 – Henny’s Chick Half-sister to stakes winner Ghost Locket
# 10 – Run Dottie Run Didn’t like the mile last time back to sprinting here
# 7 – Rainbow Smiles 2nd in her debut on 10-13
$1 Exacta Box: 9-6-10 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.

Race 9 Allowance About 1 Mile (turf)
# 1 – Creditbility Highly thought of colt was graded stakes placed last year
# 6 – Shadowless 8 of 8 in the $$ on turf & dirt this year
# 2 – Colosi 2nd @ this level on 10-6
# 8 – Kokokomo In a bit of traffic trouble last time
$1 Exacta Box: 1-6-2 Cost: $6.00 2 out of 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Shot - Jerry Shottenkirk
TOP SHOT
Remington Park Selections
Friday, November 4

1st Race
6 FACESTER
2 DIXIELAND CANDY
3 VEILAZIG
1 FADED MEMORIES

2nd Race
4 MISTER K
6 TEXAS SKYWALKER
7 LET’S GO ALAMO
11 SUNDAY BLING

3rd Race
5 AVENGING WARRIOR
1 YANKEE INDIAN
2 FRIGERATOR
4 KWONTRO

4th Race
5 TACHA GOLD
6 COMPETITIVE SPIRIT
7 SWEET DYNASTY
1 CANDY TAP

5th Race
2 ENDLESS GRACE
9 WHEN JUDY CALLS
3 STELLA G
4 MISS CANEY

6th Race
7 GRAY ZONE
8 HEATIN UP
4 MISSISZIPPY BLING
3 RELIANT

7th Race
11 GET OUT TONIGHT
3 POLLY SPENT IT
1 CUPIDS LOVE
12 SILVER LEGACY

8th Race
2 STOLEN KISSES
10 RUN DOTTIE RUN
3 DRENCHED
9 RUBY THE DESTROYER

9th Race
1 CREDIBILITY
10 CHARLIECANDO
9 DOC IRWIN
7 RANTHEREDLIGHT

TODAY’S BEST BET
GET OUT TONIGHT (7th)

PICK FIVE
(Races 1-5)
6-2 with 4-6 with 5-1 with 5-6-7-1 with 2-9-3 ($48)

PREMIER PICK FOUR
(Races 2-5)
4-6-7 with 5-1 with 5-6-7-1 with 2-9-3 ($36)

PRIMETIME PICK FOUR
Races (6-9)
7-8 with 11-3 with 2-10-3-9 with 1-10-9-7 ($32)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today’s Horse Racing Tips – 4th November 2022

by Racing and Sports

Racing and Sports highlight our standout plays at Australian TAB meetings for November 4.

Australian thoroughbred Tab meetings are today held at Pakenham, Swan Hill, Albury, Kempsey, and Albany.

PAKENHAM: RACE 4 @ 6:45 PM

TROPICCONI (10) looks the clear horse to beat having won nicely on debut at Cranbourne on heavy ground as a short priced favourite. 1200m should pose no issue and her upside appeals here. STARLEA (8) peaked on her run when resuming last start over 1000m at Ballarat. She'll strip fitter for the rise in trip and took on some good races last time in. TARZI CALLING (5) was beaten out of sight first up at Cranbourne when well in the market. He's better than that and worth another chance. COMMODUS (4) struggles to win but is rarely far away and another top three finish is on the cards.
SELECTIONS: Tropicconi to win.

SWAN HILL: RACE 1 @ 1:30 PM

MARTHA LAVINIA (8) looks the logical horse to beat, having placed in four of five over her career, including twice last time in. Finds a very winnable maiden and will take plenty of stopping. ANDIRON (11) isn't far off a win having run fourth at Pakenham Synthetic last time out. Maps for a soft run behind the pace and should be in the finish. POPPET (9) was beaten less than a length at Mildura last time out when second over 1300m. She's racing well and draws nicely in barrier four. NINJA DERBY (5) was just fair first up at Mornington but showed promise last time in and will strip fitter.
SELECTIONS: Martha Lavinia to win.

ALBURY: RACE 7 @ 7:05 PM

SWAGGER (1) is unlucky not have more than just the one win next to his name this prep after a couple of narrow defeats. Forced to lug the top weight here with the significant drop class. J Mallyon reunites and has a terrific record when partnering. TULLAGHAN (7) has chased hard to the line in both return efforts. Favours a wet track and has run well over this journey. Also a fan of the quick turnaround. DASH TO THE BAR (5) had been in good form before going amiss last start on the synthetic. M Bourke reunites with the 2kg claim and is 1/1 when aboard. TOUGH JAMES (2) faces an easier assignment and looks best of the rest.
SELECTIONS: Backing Swagger to win.

KEMPSEY: RACE 2 @ 1:50 PM

WILLINGA KARISMA (6) has been right there in two starts to date when well in the betting on both occasions. Where there's smoke there's fire and can improve enough to take this out. SUKHBIR (3) was a touch plain at Hawkesbury before the break but go on the solid third at Dubbo to start the career. In the mix while fresh. OAKFIELD FEATHER (10) is drawn to get a soft run in transit from gate three and must be respected from the Buchanan camp. STAR OF YAMBA (11) is rarely far off them and shapes as one for the multiples. I LOVE RUBY (9) best of the rest from the low draw.
SELECTIONS: Willinga Karisma to win.

ALBANY: RACE 7 @ 5:30 PM

FINAL AUTHORITY (3) brings strong city form to peak. Was just beaten at Ascot the latest and CJP is reunited on the Durrant-trained galloper. Draws handy and will take plenty of beating. PRINCE RAGNAR (1) is a leader on resumption and is up to this if presented on-song. Likes it here and Rawiller can manage the awkward barrier. ELITE FIGHTER (2) also resumes and is good enough if presented on-song this time around. He will be looking to use the rail. HENRY THE AVIATOR (4) resumes and is a capable galloper who isn't out of it. SELECTIONS: Backing Final Authority to win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kempsey racing tips, best odds & quaddie | November 4, 2022
November 3, 2022 5:17 pm.
Nathan Keven

What Kempsey Races
Where Kempsey Race Club – Warwick Park, North St, Kempsey NSW 2440
When Friday, November 4, 2022
First Race 1:15pm AEDT

Visit Ladbrokes

It’s Kempsey Cup Day on Friday afternoon and the club has lined up a competitive eight-race card to do the form on. The track is listed as a Soft 7 heading into race-day; however, with some lovely weather forecast in the lead up, we could be expecting an upgrade. The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit and we’re racing from 1:15pm AEDT.
Kempsey Cup: Hit The Target

We’ve landed with Hit The Target in the feature Kempsey Cup on Friday afternoon on the back of a forgive run last time out at Port Macquarie. The track was too soft on October 7 and was a race full of tempo with a few horses giving our runner grief, forget he went around. Take this gelding by Uncle Mo on his win two starts back at Newcastle on September 17, he won comfortable over the 1400m by 1.8 lengths on a Good 4 surface, and hopefully the rain can stay away long enough on Friday afternoon so that we get similar conditions. McGuren should get a cosy lead from barrier one and kick clear of his rivals heading for home. If he can get a soft enough lead and a track anything better than a Soft 6, Hit The Shot is clearly the one to beat for us.
Kempsey Cup

Race 7 – #1 Hit The Target (1)

8yo Gelding | T: Stephen Jones | J: Matthew McGuren (61kg)

$4 with Bet365
Best Bet at Kempsey: Willinga Karisma

Kris Lees-trained filly Willinga Karisma look to break her maiden status in race two on Friday afternoon and looks a terrific bet with online Bookmakers. She comes here off a strong effort behind Fabulous Choice at Muswellbrook on October 17 beaten by 0.9 lengths, Willinga Karisma was making up ground late before running out of time to chase down the leaders over the 1280m race. She sticks to a similar trip here over 1250m, but from the soft draw in gate one, Ashley Morgan should be able to sit a lot closer to the speed and when asked our filly should get off rivals backs to get up. She looks the best bet of the day for us on Kempsey Cup Day.
Best Bet

Race 2 – #6 Willinga Karisma (1)

3yo Filly | T: Kris Lees | J: Ashley Morgan (55.5kg)

$1.80 with Neds
Next Best at Kempsey: Foxy Baroness

We look for a Kris Lees-trained back-to-back double for our best plays of the day at Kempsey with Foxy Baroness. She’s fourth-up, fit and ready to get career win number one on the board in this race over the 1450m. The step up in trip here after a great run behind Loud at Gosford on October 21 looks the perfect set up for our mare by Foxwedge to get here win against what looks moderate opposition on Friday afternoon. Aaron Bullock can be position from barrier two when asked for an effort turning for home, Foxy Baroness looks too strong for this lot and we can bag back-to-back winners before we get to the Kempsey Cup finale.
Next Best

Race 3 – #7 Foxy Baroness (2)

4yo Mare | T: Kris Lees | J: Aaron Bullock (57kg)

$2.25 with PlayUp
Friday quaddie tips for Kempsey Cup Day 2022
Kempsey quadrella selections

Friday, November 4, 2022

1-2-3-10
2-3-4-6
1-2-4
2-3-6-7

Investment: $192 for 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pakenham best bets & quaddie tips | November 4, 2022
November 3, 2022 4:13 pm.
Ciaran Jackman

What Pakenham Races
Where Pakenham Racing Club – 420 Nar Nar Goon–Longwarry Rd, Tynong VIC 3813
When Friday, November 4, 2022
First Race 5:10pm AEDT

Visit Ladbrokes

Friday night racing returns to Pakenham this Friday with a very competitive 10-race program. The track is currently rated a Heavy 9, and with more rain on the way for the east of Victoria over Thursday and Friday, we don’t expect see anything but a Heavy track on race day. The rail will be in the 4m position for the entire circuit, and racing gets underway at 5:10pm AEDT.
Best Bet: Head First

Our best bet of the night comes up in the penultimate race of the night, where we are siding with the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Head First. This lightly raced five-year-old mare will be looking for her third win at her ninth start, when she takes her place in the Benchmark 64 Handicap over 1400m. After two encouraging runs this preparation, it looks as though this race on Friday night is a very good race for this daughter of Headwater to record her first win of the preparation. This girl should be one of the runners that will relish in the heavy conditions as she has only won on rain affected tracks in her short career. From barrier two, Daniel Moor should be able to get her into the one-one or just outside the lead and be very hard to beat with any luck in running.
Best Bet

Race 9 – silks#8 Head First (2)

4yo Mare | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Daniel Moor (58kg)

$4.50 with Bet365
Next Best: Netanyahu

Leon & Troy Corstens will bring their five-year-old gelding, Netanyahu, back to the races after a six month spell in race five on Friday night over 1200 in a Benchmark 64. This son of Alamosa has been a good money spinner for his owners, running in the top three at nine of his 13 careers starts to date. Both of his wins have come on Soft and Heavy ground, while he has only missed the placings in one of those five runs on rain affected ground. This guy also brings decent first-up form, with two seconds from two first-up runs in his career, so as long as the Corstens team has him ready to go first-up, we should be seeing this guy go very close on Friday night.
Next Best

Race 5 – silks#5 Netanyahu (3)

4yo Mare | T: Leon & Troy Corstens | J: Jordan Childs (58.5kg)

$6 with Neds
Best Value: Sweet ‘N’ Spicy

In the fourth race of the day over 1200m, a full field of 12 lightly raced runners will do battle in a Class 1 Handicap. Of the 12 runners we will be siding with the Lyn Tolson & Leonie Proctor-trained Sweet ‘N’ Spicy who won very impressively over the same trip at Mornington on October 17. This three-year-old filly has been in some good races throughout her career, with all of her runs being over 1200m. This daughter of Thronum travelled well throughout her last start before pulling out at the 400m mark and going straight past the three leaders to break her maiden very comfortably. If Matthew Cartwright gets any luck from barrier 16 and he can get this filly into a good position around midfield, she will be rounding them up late to record her second win.
Best Value

Race 4 – silks#12 Sweet ‘N’ Spicy (16)

4yo Gelding | T: Lyn Tolson & Leonie Proctor | J: Matthew Cartwright (55.5kg)

$11 with Bet365
Friday quaddie tips for Pakenham
Pakenham quadrella selections

Friday, November 4, 2022

1-2-7-8
3-8-9
5-6-8
1-3-6-8

Investment: $144 for 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli: Keeneland Early Pick 5 Analysis | Friday, November 4, 2022
By: Frank Carulli
Published: November 3, 2022

It’s the calm before the storm, the appetizer before the main course. Keeneland will offer a 50-cent Pick 5 wager on the Friday, Nov. 4 card, to launch Breeders’ Cup weekend. It starts early, with an 11:55 a.m. EST first-race post, and features the $350,000 Grade II Aftercare Alliance Stakes, the race before the Breeders’ Cup races begin. Here’s a look at the action:

KEE 1ST race (11:55 a.m. EST) -- B DAWK was difficult to load, trailed into the turn and swept 5-wide into contention in the 7F Perryville Stakes at Keeneland last out. But he was carried out wider, raced erratically in the stretch and was no match for winning odds-on favorite Gunite (6-12, $965k), a Grade II winner. Also liked his 7F allowance win when he emerged from a 4-wide scramble to lead at the top of the lane, repelled an immediate challenge and hit another gear in mid-stretch to win. OPEN ROAD made a last-to-2nd move against B DAWK, then returned two months later for his first route try at 1-1/8 miles. He pressed the pace alongside proven allowance router Strong Quality and survived a stretch-long duel to win. DOUBLE THUNDER, second in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity last fall at Keeneland the last time he didn’t wear blinkers, was claimed for $50,000 in his last start and makes the ticket at monster odds.

KEE 2nd race (12:30 p.m. EST) -- AFFIRMATIVE LADY, far back and under a ride into the turn, leveled off in the final sixteenth, closed with a rush for third and galloped out strongly in her debut. She breezed 4F in :49.4 over the track and gets an extra furlong today for a 24-percent, second-out barn. MAGICAL SONG debuts off a series of steady 5F workouts for Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. She is the first foal to race out of champion Songbird (13-15, $4.6 million), who won nine Grade I races in her illustrious career.

KEE 3rd race (1:05 p.m. EST) -- CALL ME FAST appears rounding to another good race after a near miss two starts back with second-time blinkers and an 8-1/4-length romp at 10-1 odds last out. She blew past the even-money favorite and is a must use in the Pick 5 at a tempting price. MARSALIS came back running six months after her maiden victory, dueling through fast fractions and holding second at 6F. Run Classic, who rallied to win the race off a 2-1/2-year layoff, came back to win an allowance by 8-1/4 lengths with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure; Embrace, who finished fifth, came back to win a 7F allowance at Keeneland.

KEE 4th race (1:40 p.m. EST) – Of the dozen 2-year-olds entered in this 7F allowance, nine won at first asking and two won in their second start, but only one has conquered this distance. No matter, ARABIAN LION looms as the odds-on favorite and, perhaps, a popular solo play in the Pick 5 after a smashing 1:09.78 win in his debut at Santa Anita that earned a 92 Beyer speed figure. But don’t sleep on PROTEGE or GIANT MISCHIEF after their debut victories. PROTEGE, who must overcome post 12, kicked away from two, next-out MSW winners in the final furlong in 1:09.93, only 3/5 of a second slower than a same-day allowance won by Kasod (4-16, $474k). GIANT MISCHIEF steadied in backstretch traffic in a suspect field at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but he moved up on the turn at 5-1/2F and closed like a wild horse when angled to the outside.

KEE 5th race (2:15 p.m. EST) -- Going four deep in the 1-5/8-mile Aftercare Alliance Stakes, the only graded stakes in the sequence. HEYWOODS BEACH saved ground behind the dueling leaders, slipped through on the rail and dug in for his second, Grade III win at 1-1/2 miles in as many starts on the main track this year. He held off our top choice, WIN THE DAY, who advanced steadily from last, angled 4-wide for the stretch drive and missed by a neck. BAL HARBOUR, a multiple graded stakes-placed router, was claimed for $50,000 when entered for a tag for the first time in 32 starts. He went wire-to-wire and won by 8-3/4 lengths on a sloppy track to earn a 100 Beyer, third best of his career. Morning-line favorite RATTLE N ROLL, who won the Grade I Breeders Futurity at Keeneland a year ago, returns in top form. He rallied to win a pair of minor stakes and the Grade III Oklahoma Derby in his last four starts to put him on the brink of millionaire status. Not sold on the field he beat, however, and not thrilled about the 5-2 morning-line price, so look elsewhere. CUPID’S CLAWS hasn’t won in two years, but he has two seconds a third in four main-track races at 1-1/8 miles and beyond in that span, earning the final spot on the ticket at 20-1 odds.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket

KEE 1st Race: 1, 6, 8
KEE 2nd Race: 2, 10
KEE 3rd Race: 1, 11
KEE 4th Race: 2, 9, 12
KEE 5th Race: 3, 4, 6, 9

COST: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeremy Plonk: Breeders' Cup Post Draw Rapid Reaction
By: Jeremy Plonk
Published: October 31, 2022

Breeders’ Cup officials set the fields for Friday and Saturday’s 14 championship races at a ceremony today at the historic Rupp Arena in downtown Lexington, KY. A total of 177 horses entered, none more electric than the undefeated Flightline. The $6 million Classic’s 4-5 morning line favorite drew post 4 of 8 in a field that includes Pegasus World Cup victor Life Is Good and 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike.

Future Stars Friday’s 10-race card kicks off at 11:55 am ET and includes five championship races for the 2-year-olds. Saturday’s action gets underway at 10:30 am ET and the 12-race lineup features nine Breeders’ Cup events in Races 3-11. Post time for the Classic will be 5:40 pm ET.

Flightline and Life Is Good figure to be the dominant early speed in the mile and one-quarter Classic. Given the post draw and rider intent, expect Life Is Good in post 2 to set the tone with Flightline attending to his outside. That could set up for some fireworks.

Notable post-position draw points over the two days include:

- While Friday’s Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies at 1-1/16 miles have a short run to the clubhouse turn, posts 10+ have as many Keeneland stakes wins in recent years in fields of 10 or more as posts 1-4. Heavy 4-5 Juvenile morning line favorite Cave Rock is drawn extremely well in post 3, just inside of chief rival Forte. Cave Rock is much faster early of that duo.

- Posts 3-4-5 are strong in Keeneland turf sprints, and notable in Friday’s Juvenile Turf Sprint that favorites Love Reigns (post 2) and The Platinum Queen (post 12) landed in near extremes that will challenge their abilities. As for the Turf Sprint on Saturday, lightning-quick Golden Pal (post 8) leaves just outside of Europe’s best Highfield Princess (post 6) – and with speedball Artemus Citylimits in the extreme 14-hole, this one could absolutely cook early.

- Inside posts are strongly favored in one-mile races at Keeneland. The Dirt Mile lured longshots between 8-1 and 30-1 in each of the inner four posts. Perhaps this race opens up some price looks now.

- With the defection of Jack Christopher, the price plummets on Sprint favorite Jackie’s Warrior, who looks absolutely loose on lead. Post 9 is excellent to avoid trouble and capitalize on being in the clear with a solid run into the only turn.

- Turf mile stakes posts 3-7 have 17 of the 28 wins in fields of 10+ at Keeneland in recent years. Saturday’s Mile favorite Kinross in post 13 really looks tenuous. The straightaway sprinter will have that clubhouse turn come up really fast and have to hook a left.

- The Distaff’s star-studded field includes Todd Pletcher stablemates Nest (post 6, 9-5 favorite) and Malathaat (post 1), who are a combined 4-for-4 at Keeneland in winning all local major stakes the past two years. Potential lone speed Society drew post 8 of 8 and will be outside Search Results, her only early pace threat on paper. That seems a positive development if she’s good enough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Daily Racing Tips – Sportsbet-Pakenham – November 4th

Home - Featured - Daily Racing Tips – Sportsbet-Pakenham – November 4th

Mark Hunter

RSN Expert Form Analyst Mark Hunter has the best Daily Racing Tips for the meeting at Sportsbet-Pakenham on Friday the 4th of November for the RSN Punter.

Along with our Daily Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus Interstate Racing Tips, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Rail Position: Out 4m Entire Circuit
Dual Track Meeting: N
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Heavy 8
Weather: Overcast
Mark Hunter Sportsbet-Pakenham Tips

Sportsbet Pakenham, 4th November 2022

Race 1 Selections: 6,10,1,12
Race 2 Selections: 12,6,1,4
Race 3 Selections: 9,8,4,3
Race 4 Selections: 10,11,5,2
Race 5 Selections: 5,8,13,10
Race 6 Selections: 9,6,1,8
Race 7 Selections: 6,13,9,8
Race 8 Selections: 4,3,1,5
Race 9 Selections: 5,8,6,2
Race 10 Selections: 12,8,2,3
Best Bet

Race 4 Number 10
Best Value

Race 1 Number 6
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 6,13,9,8
Quaddie 2: 4,3,1
Quaddie 3: 5,8,6
Quaddie 4: 12,8,2
Play Of The Day

Parley 2, 3, 4 for the win – Race 1 #6, Race 4 #10, Race 7 #6, Race 9 #5 – Cost $11 for a $1 unit