Sunday 10/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:36 AM

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 28, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday (Golden Hour Double, Pick 4 with Santa Anita returns)

Carryovers:

$6,058 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot
$5,175 // Super High Five
Meet's Closing Day // Sunday // mandatory payouts

Feature Race:

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Last Late Pace (33%, +$36.80)
Best Speed Last 3 (29%, +$16.00)
Speed Last Race (27%, +$1.80)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Evin Roman // last week 17: 4-3-1 (24%, $1.71 ROI) // wins at $8, $14, $15, $19
J: Assael Espinoza // last week 11: 3-1-1 (27%, $1.70 ROI) // 2-3 with Andy Mathis // 10-33 over past 3 weeks
T: Bill McLean // last week 5: 3-0-0 (60%, $5.23 ROI) // wins at $9, $19, $23 // 2-2 with Santos Rivera
T: Andy Mathis // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $2.23 ROI) // wins at $3, $7, $16 // 2-2 main track routes
T: Marcia Stortz // last week 4: 2-0-0 (50%, $5.58 ROI) // wins at $15, $29 // 4-15 since Sept. 1 at GGF

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:37 AM

Gulfstream 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 28, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday (new 12:50 pm ET daily post; racing on Tapeta surface begins Thursday)

Carryovers:

$216,828 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($350,000-guaranteed pool Thursday)

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Win % (35%, +$50.40)
% Of Horses Beaten (30%, +$12.20)
(In The Money) ITM % (27%, +$16.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Luca Panici // last week 18: 5-2-3 (28%, $1.16 ROI) // winners at $4, $6, $8, $9, $13
J: Edgard Zayas // last week 24: 6-9-3 (25%, $0.82 ROI) // 18-49 over past 2 weeks
T: Saffie Joseph Jr. // last week: 14: 4-6-2 (29%, $0.89 ROI) // all 4 wins 2-1 or less // 7-21 over past 2 weeks
T: Ron Spatz // last week 3: 2-0-0 (66%, $3.47 ROI) // $6 and $14 winners // 2-2 with Miguel Vasquez
T: Merei Amador Sanchez // last week 5: 2-0-1 (40%, $1.56 ROI) // 2-2 in maiden claimers

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:37 AM

Laurel Park 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

1/ST Look: Laurel Park 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$2,555 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot

Feature Race(s):

$150,000 Laurel Futurity // 2-year-olds on turf // Saturday
$150,000 Selima // 2-year-old fillies on turf // Saturday
$100,000 Laurel Dash // turf sprinters // Saturday
$100,000 Japan Turf Cup // turf marathoners // Saturday
$100,000 All Along // turf route fillies & mares // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Fast Track (37%, +$32.40)
Trainer/Jockey 2-Year Win % (33%, +$25.00)
Trainer 6 Mo. Win % (32%, +$31.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Eduardo Lopez // last week 12: 6-0-2 (50%, $3.79 ROI) // topped by $56 upsetter // 2-3 with Jamie Ness
J: Denis Araujo // last week 13: 4-0-2 (31%, $2.59 ROI) // wins at $8, $11, $17, $30 // 2-4 with Hamilton Smith
J: Grant Whitacre // last week 5: 2-1-1 (40%, $2.40 ROI) // 2-2 dirt routes, including $18 winner
T: Brittany Russell // last week 7: 4-0-1 (57%, $3.01 ROI) // $3, $7, $8, $23 winners // 8-15 over last 2 weeks
T: Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $4.47 ROI) // wins at $9, $15, $29 // 2-2 with Luis Batista
T: Dale Capuano // last week 4: 3-0-1 (75%, $2.05 ROI) // wins at $4, $5, $6 // 2-2 with Jorge Ruiz
** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:40 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 3, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
The Northfield Park feature rolls in Race 13, an Open Trot with a $20,500 purse. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Betcha Didnt Know (4-1)-Has been in too tough in the last 4 starts and now takes a drop to the same level as the last picture. Meyers should get away well, then follow the one below and look to pounce late.
4-Impulse Buy (6/5)-Wired the field at 4/5 in last and now is back in at the same class. Merriman should be following the same script tonight and there isn't much gate speed in this field.

Race 12

3-Authentic Hanover (3/2)-Was claimed in last, took the lead near the 1/2 and sped away to draw off by 6 lengths at 4/5. Has raced well the last 2 times when claimed. The question is whether the new addition to the Kreiser barn can repeat the same effort. Will respect chances of another trip to the winner's circle at a tiny price.
4-Gotti (9/2)-Comes out of the same race as the choice but started slowly and had no chance. Tonight, this race could set-up differently. Merriman should leave and could get the point early on. The chalk might take over the lead, but this 8-year-old could make the most out of a pocket ride.

Race 13

3-Mac Deeno (6-1)-Winner in 10 of 29 starts this year could be overlooked at the windows. Comes back in sequence and should be forwardly placed or might get on the engine. This 8-year-old has won 17 of 51 at NFLD, the barn is batting 26% winners in the last 30 days and best to not overlook versus this crew.
7-In Secret (20-1)-Wrenn chooses the Burke trainee over #5 as the two swap drivers. This 9-year-old is making only his 5th NFLD start and has hit the board in 3 of 4 with 2 wins. Broke last week but Wrenn knows well and should offer a big price. Has the gate speed to get a good seat and will take a swing with another price shot in a difficult race to read.

Race 14

3-Cross Country (5/2)-Was a sick scratch on 8-29 and since then form has been dull. If right, this Team Ebersole trainee can leave in a hurry and get the jump on others. Willing to use and looking for better odds than the morning line.
5-Dragonology (2-1)-Not excited about the morning line but does take a significant drop. Wrenn returns and he knows well and will probably be bet down.
6-Whos Better (10-1)-Won with Wrenn steering in gate to wire fashion at this class on 8-29. Stahl takes the lines and that should help the price. Has the gate speed to get on the engine, and this winner in 3 of 5 NFLD starts looks worthy of a swing.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,4/3,4/3,7/3,5,6
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:41 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Golden Gate

October 3, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Golden Gate Fields pumps up its Sunday card to 12 races, and the Late Pick 4 for races 9-12 gives reason to give it a long look.

That’s what I’ve done this week with an $84 suggested Pick 4 ticket, which is a little higher than usual but seems necessary in this sequence that includes a maiden race, a starter allowance, an allowance, and a claiming race.

Here’s a look at the combatants I’m using on the ticket:

9th Race (7:15 p.m. ET, maiden special weight)

LMLOOKNFORMISCHIEF was runner-up in both starts, first by 2.5 lengths and most recently by a neck.

Faith Taylor’s Curlin in Mischief colt is sitting on a win and keeps jockey Pedro Terrero, who is knocking them home at a 19-percent rate.

He has been close to fast fractions and put himself into the game at the start, and a ground-saving trip will help.

Also on the ticket: BRITTANY BREEZE, NUESTRO ENGREIDO, COWBOY CHARLIE.

10th Race (7:45 p.m. ET, starter allowance)

ANITANEWMERCEDES has changed his ways lately, most notably because of a change to the turf.

Trainer Isidro Tamayo claimed the son of Haynesfield in June and his last two wins have been at the starter allowance level. He’s found a knack for getting to the lead and has held up well in the drive.

He’s in a wide-open event, and there are many legit options.

Also on the ticket: MISS SUPER SAINT, NOWHERE MAN, RESPECT THE HUSTLE, DIAMOND BLITZ, HONORS MAN, REV REE.

11th Race (8:15 p.m. ET, allowance)

COOL MOUNTAIN LAD coasted home impressively last out and has taken three of five starts, all for trainer Victor Trujillo.

He has a three-for-three record over the strip and has won at 5.5 furlongs (twice) and six furlongs.

Will have to tune it up early going five furlongs today, but he’s been close to the pace and can dig in when asked.

Also on the ticket: R M C HOOK’EM, SILVER CLAIM.

12th Race (8:45 p.m. ET, claiming)

CONQUEST COBRA keeps on getting after it and was claimed for $16,000 three races ago and is in today at $4,000, which is unusual since he was second for $8,000 last out at Los Alamitos.

He’s won two of seven on All-Weather tracks overall but is winless in two starts over this track. He’s clearly the class, but the drop in price can be reason for concern. In other words, I’m not prepared him to do it alone on the ticket today.

Also on the ticket: PURR CAT.

Golden Gate Fields 50-cent Late Pick Four:
9) #2 Lmlooknformischief, #5 Brittany Breeze, #6 Nuestro Engreido, #9 Cowboy Charlie.
10) #1 Miss Super Saint, #2 Nowhere Man, #3 Respect the Hustle, #5 Anitanewmercedes, #6 Diamond Blitz, #7 Honors Man, #8 Rev Ree.
11) #1 R M C Hook’em, #4 Cool Mountain Lad, #6 Silver Claim.
12) #2 Conquest Cobra, #4 Purr Cat.
The ticket: 2-5-6-9 with 1-2-3-5-6-7-8 with 1-4-6 with 2-4 ($84).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #5

#5 Island Philo	Tactical type won't offer another big price today, but she drops to this level with the locals for the first time and can hit hard here with anything like her two-back run.
#11 Sidney Sue	She's tough if she gets in here, but it's worth noting that she was a huge price at this level two starts back at Monmouth and has had her share of chances. Tricky call, but I'll lean to trying to beat her if she runs.
#4 Tidal Waters	She has been competitive with better groups, and she'll get blinkers on for the drop to this level for the first time. She's probably overbet.
Race Summary	Island Philo looks capable with these, and anything like the 5/1 ML price would feel attractive in a race where the other logical players have as many questions as answers.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#4 Click to Confirm	She might offer a fair price off the win against $25,000 in the debut, but she was well meant that day at 4/5 and was certainly no secret as she got claimed that day. Chance on the hike.
#3 Sparkle Sprinkle	She rolled a local allowance group off the Timonium maiden win, but she's going to have some company near the top today. Tough to argue with the form after two races.
#2 Buff My Boots	She is another who brings solid main-track form, but she has pace and draws inside of some of the other speed. Chance she takes the worst of it.
Race Summary	Click to Confirm goes for new connections while protected on the hike, and she probably doesn't have to come forward much to land this off the maiden win.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#5 Long Distance Love	She'll go second off the layoff with just a modest turf debut under her belt, and she might be able to translate that to something better around two turns today on the drop.
#3 Fast Fashion	She has had a dozen chances, so she's short on excuses, but she's a pretty reliable performer at this level and figures to land at least another piece of this.
#10 Monster Rising	She's capable of something better than she showed last time out, and she might offer a slightly better price this time around after the dull run.
Race Summary	Long Distance Love is intriguing at a price while getting around two turns on the turf for the first time, and she can probably land a decent tactical trip with these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:46 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Spezia at Hellas Verona
Sport/League: ISAL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score YES (-150)
Italy Serie A
Not a game that is going to garner much attention from the casual fan nor is it a game I really care to watch all that much, but both teams suck just enough that I think we see some goals here and with a total set at 3.0, the only way it goes over the total is likely if Both Teams Score which is how I would play this game.
We have two bad teams that will be looking at this game as a great opportunity to get three points and move away from the relegation zone. Both teams will likely be battling against it all season so any opportunity like this they should be playing more aggressively to try and win the game versus playing one of the teams in the league where they setup defensively.
Spezia has the worst defense in the league both in terms of xG where they are allowing a league high 1.98 xGA per game and in terms of volume where they allow 16.7 shots per game with 6.8 on goal, both ranking as the worst in the league.
Verona is slightly better ranking between #12-14 out of 20 teams in all three categories, allowing an average of 2.33 goals per game and have conceded in all six games this season as has Spezia. Both teams have scored in five of six games as well leaving both teams with identical 5-1 Both Teams to Score records.
Three of the last four H2H's between these teams has seen BTTS and I like the chances for another on Sunday.
TAKE BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE YES
Line Parameter: 2% to -170, 1% to -190

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:46 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (261) Carolina Panthers at (262) Dallas Cowboys
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Carolina Panthers +4.5 (-110)
Huge win for the Cowboys on Monday Night Football and this sets up as a huge flat spot for them against an excellent Carolina team here on Sunday.
The Panthers lead the league in opponent yards per game, opponent yards per play and opponent first downs per game this season and travel to a Dallas team that, while they've faced the stronger schedule overall, ranks 30th in the league on defensive yards per play this season.
The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six entering in as a road underdog. Look for that to continue here on the road against Dallas on Sunday.
PLAY: CAROLINA PANTHERS +4.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:55 AM

Teddy Covers

Event: (265) Kansas City Chiefs at (266) Philadelphia Eagles
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 (-120)
Take Philadelphia (#266)
It’s not hard to make a case for the Chiefs as being a dramatically overvalued commodity right now, even with the best QB in the NFL. KC is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 ballgames dating back to last year with one of the two covers coming by a half point; consistently overvalued in the betting marketplace. The Chiefs struggled at home in their opener, lucky to rally back and escape with a non-covering win against Cleveland. It was a similar story at Baltimore. The Chiefs got gifted a pair of early interceptions (one returned for a TD, the other preventing a red zone scoring chance) and still lost the game in SU fashion as a favorite. Last week against the Chargers, KC couldn’t get a stop with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. This is NOT a team that should be laying a touchdown or more on the highway right now, even in a ‘circle the wagons’ spot off back-2-back losses.
Through three games, the Chiefs defense is allowing 7.0 yards per play (dead last in the NFL) and whopping 5.4 yards per rush (#30 in the NFL). Teams that can’t get fourth quarter stops can’t lay prices as a favorite, plain and simple. They haven’t run the ball consistently and teams that can’t run the football effectively during crunch time can’t lay prices as favorites, plain and simple. Philly is off an embarrassing Monday Night Blowout loss, primed for a more competitive effort here. Let’s grab the Eagles right now, with +7.5’s widely available. Take Philadelphia.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:56 AM

Andy Lang

Event: (253) Detroit Lions at (254) Chicago Bears
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Lions-Bears First Quarter UNDER 7.5
Two offenses that struggle against two defenses that have shown promise equals a good spot for a first quarter under. The Bears anemic offense reared it’s ugly head last week as they struggled to do much of anything against the Browns, and while the Lions defense isn’t as good as the Browns they’ve quickly improved in the first 3 weeks giving up less than 17 points to Baltimore. The Lions offense is utilizing the running game and short passing which keeps the clock running, Chicago is dead last in yards per play with 3.3, and Detroit is 22nd with a 5.3 yards per play average, only 22nd best. Expect a low scoring game and first quarter.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:56 AM

Bobby Ligs

Event: (263) New York Giants at (264) New Orleans Saints
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: New Orleans Saints -7.5 (-105)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:56 AM

The Prez

Event: (253) Detroit Lions at (254) Chicago Bears
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Total Under 42.0 (-110)
253 Detroit Lions at 254 Chicago Bears -3, 42

The Bears have owned the Lions in Matt Nagy's tenure as Chicago's head coach. So when the media once again asked Nagy who his starting quarterback would be this Sunday rather than the scripted answer Nagy has issued for the last seven weeks of Andy Dalton, the Bears' bench boss changed from just Nagy to a new but more honest response. Nagy told the Chicago media that all three QBs on the roster were potential selections to start vs. the Lions on Sunday.

Justin Fields, Nick Foles, and Andy Dalton are all under consideration for the Week 4 start against the Detroit Lions. The 0-3 Lions have lost to the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, and the Baltimore Ravens. In addition, the Chicago Bears suffered a Week 1 loss at SoFi to Matt Stafford and LA Rams, and this past Sunday's failure was to a good Cleveland Browns franchise.

The Nagy-led Bears secured their only win in Week 2 with a 20-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. So this Week 4 matchup comes down to but a pair of variables. Is the Bears' defense better than the Lions' offense, and is the Lions' defense good enough to contain a bad Chicago "O"? Without a lifeline to phone a friend, there isn't a good answer to either of the questions I have posed in this preview. So when asked who will win Sunday's NFC North matchup and what the final score will be? The safe answer is, "my pick is a Sunday play Under the Total of 42 at Chicago's Soldier Field".

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:57 AM

Gianni the Greek

Event: (263) New York Giants at (264) New Orleans Saints
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Total Under 42.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2021, 07:57 AM

Steve Merril

Event: (251) Washington Football Team at (252) Atlanta Falcons

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 3, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Total Over 47.5 (-110)
-Washington is averaging 5.8 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play
-Atlanta has scored 42 total points in their last 2 games; now facing a 30.7 ppg defense
-both defenses have been shredded this season; Falcons giving up 31.3 ppg; expect points