Service Plays Sunday 9/12/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Sep 12 2021 4:25PM
474 NEP -2.5 (-110) Westgate vs 473 MIA double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
GREEN BAY -2.5
ANALYSIS: I got the Packers in this spot laying less than a field goal on the road because they have more stability than the Saints despite the offseason drama in Green Bay. I believe Jameis Winston will get more snaps than Taysom Hill, meaning more chances for him to make an error, at least in Week 1. Matt LaFleur is 26-6 in two seasons because Aaron Rodgers rarely makes mistakes. The Saints have lost lots of key players on defense, and that’ll show against Rodgers. Packers to cover.

+471 8-3 IN LAST 11 NO ATS PICKS
+189 3-1 IN LAST 4 GB ATS PICKS
TUE 8/10

N.Y. JETS @ CAROLINA | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
CAROLINA -4
ANALYSIS: The Panthers should be -6 in this spot at home. The Jets are being rated too high and that’s where the disparity is. The Jets have a new coach in Robert Saleh, who takes over a 2-14 team. They’ll likely be starting a rookie QB making his debut on the road. Tough spot. The Panthers have lots of offensive weapons with a QB having added incentive to beat his old team. Sam Darnold's revenge. Panthers to cover.

+443 10-5-1 IN LAST 16 CAR ATS PICKS
+178 4-2 IN LAST 6 NYJ ATS PICKS
SAT 8/14

L.A. CHARGERS @ WASHINGTON | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
L.A. CHARGERS -1
ANALYSIS: I think the Chargers are going to make a strong move upward this season, i.e. make the playoffs, after finishing 7-9 last year. They ended 2020 with wins and covers in their last four contests, and they won again by replacing head coach Anthony Lynn and his horrible clock management with the creative Brandon Staley, who looks to improve offensive schemes to better suit QB Justin Herbert’s skills. Washington’s defense will be tough, but I’m on the Chargers.

+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 WAS ATS PICKS
THU 8/12
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
OVER 51.5
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals have stayed Under in their last eight road games, but I’m going to dismiss that stat because I believe the Titans will control the flow and score in bunches, forcing Arizona to play catch-up for most of the contest. Tennessee has gone Over in 16 of its last 21 home games. The Over is 23-10 in the Titans' last 33 overall contests, and their offense is mostly intact. Throw in their addition of WR Julio Jones, and the Over is the top play.

+280 5-2 IN LAST 7 ARI O/U PICKS
THU 8/12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports football

8-unit NFL Regular Season win total.

under-8.5-denver broncos

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
GREEN BAY -4
ANALYSIS: After we found out Aaron Rodgers wasn't leaving Green Bay, this line sat at Packers -3 for much of the preseason. After we found out it would be played in Jacksonville instead of New Orleans, it was rehung at Packers -4. As much as I've harped on home-field advantage not being worth three points, it's certainly worth more than one, particularly for a team like the Saints. Throw in the disruption of their regular routine by being on the road for the foreseeable future due to Hurricane Ida, along with Michael Thomas' injury leaving New Orleans shorthanded at receiver, and this line looks several points light to me.

+2927 43-12 IN LAST 55 GB ATS PICKS
THU 9/2

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY -6
ANALYSIS: No matter how optimistic you are about the Browns, I just don't think this line makes much sense. Yes, the last time these two teams took the field in January, the Browns only lost by five points, but Patrick Mahomes left that game with a concussion and the Chiefs offense still rolled up 438 yards and probably should have put more points on the board. Now, they head into the season much stronger on the offensive line, negating the Browns' upgrades defensively. If Kansas City gets on a roll in the first half, I'm not sure the Browns passing offense will be able to lead the team back, especially with Odell Beckham's health an open question.

+787 20-11-4 IN LAST 35 CLE ATS PICKS
+70 4-3-1 IN LAST 8 KC ATS PICKS
TUE 8/31

L.A. CHARGERS @ WASHINGTON | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +1
ANALYSIS: The Chargers travel cross-country to play Washington in Week 1 with a relative unknown at head coach in Brandon Staley. The Coach of the Year market suggests Staley might be a pretty good coach, but at this point, who knows if he's Matt LaFleur, Zac Taylor or something in between. While Justin Herbert looks like a star in the making, his situation is different from LaFleur getting a future HOF QB to help ease his transition. Washington's defense really shined in the back half of last season, and with the team's upgrade at QB, they appear to be underrated heading into Week 1 as home 'dogs, even with Washington not having much of a home-field advantage in recent years.

+1145 28-15 IN LAST 43 WAS ATS PICKS
+473 8-3 IN LAST 11 LAC ATS PICKS
TUE 8/31

JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
HOUSTON +3
ANALYSIS: The market is predicting Houston will be the worst team in the league this year. And maybe they're right; the Texans certainly seem willing to trade veterans for picks and plan for the future. But it's not often you're able to catch points against the previous year's worst team in Week 1 with a rookie quarterback at the helm. Throw in Urban Meyer doing little to inspire confidence over the summer, and the only way this line makes sense is if the Texans are historically bad. I'll have to see that to believe it; remember that Tyrod Taylor posted a winning record with a mediocre Bills roster in two of three years by limiting mistakes. Against this defense, the Texans are certainly a live dog.

+517 14-8 IN LAST 22 JAC ATS PICKS
+160 6-4-2 IN LAST 12 HOU ATS PICKS
TUE 8/31

JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
OVER 45
ANALYSIS: Here's a matchup of two teams with bad defenses and next to no expectations for a successful season. So why is this total only 45? It probably has to do with the public hating Houston this year, and while I get the roster is one of the least talented in the league, that doesn't mean they'll be stopped by a Jaguars defense that allowed more than 30 points per game last year. After their shocking win over Indy in Week 1, the Jags only held one opponent under 27 points the rest of the year. A market-projected score of 24-21 is giving the Jacksonville defense too much credit, making the Over a nice value play here.

TUE 8/31

DENVER @ N.Y. GIANTS | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
UNDER 42.5
ANALYSIS: I feel like I'm going to be on a lot of Giants Unders this year, thanks to their quality defense and questions on offense, particularly in the trenches. I also think people will be looking to play Unders in Broncos games too, with Teddy Bridgewater belonging to the lower tier of NFL starting QBs and Von Miller back in action after missing last season. Here, we get those two teams playing each other, and the Giants have had to deal with injured or recovering skill players all throughout the preseason. This game has "first team to 20 wins" written all over it.

+524 14-8 IN LAST 22 NYG O/U PICKS
TUE 8/31

SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
UNDER 48.5
ANALYSIS: The Colts are starting to feel like the 2020 Philadelphia Eagles, and not just because of the guy under center. The Eagles had high expectations last year but dealt with a string of injuries before the season, even more early in the year and ultimately collapsed. Time will tell if the Colts can weather the storm, but with T.Y. Hilton out, left tackle a question mark and Carson Wentz barely practicing with the first unit before kickoff of this game, I can't help but think points will be hard to come by for Indy, especially after the Seahawks defense largely dominated last year after the acquisition of Jamal Adams. Seattle won't open up the fireworks if they don't have to, so expect a low score.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 SEA O/U PICKS
TUE 8/31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY | 09/09 | 8:20 PM EDT
DALLAS +7.5
ANALYSIS: The Buccaneers ride an eight-game winning streak and they’ve got almost everyone back from their Super Bowl-winning team. The Cowboys have lots of variables that make them exciting for this opening spot, beginning with Dak Prescott and the offensive line being healthy. There also is speed from the receivers and a trimmer, seemingly more focused Ezekiel Elliott. But I believe the defense will be vastly improved after allowing a franchise record for most points scored in 2020. Take the points with the Cowboys.

+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 TB ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 DAL ATS PICKS
WED 8/25

ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
ARIZONA +3
ANALYSIS: The Titans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, while Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat as he enters his third season. He’s always got a creative game plan and the QB to run it well, but third down is a problem for Kyler Murray. He stresses, doesn’t convert most of the time, and then pouts on the sideline. But when looking at the Titans No. 28-ranked defense from 2020, I think Murray and his new weapons can gash them and possibly pull off the outright win.

+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ATS PICKS
TUE 8/24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY -6
ANALYSIS: This line appears to match the off-season hype for the Browns, and discounts the improvements on the Chiefs offensive line. My model makes Kansas City 6.4 better on a neutral field, and 8.7 points better at Arrowhead Stadium. Look for a healthy Chiefs team to start the season on the right foot with a 7+ point victory in front of the home crowd.

+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 CLE ATS PICKS
+175 5-3-1 IN LAST 9 KC ATS PICKS
TUE 8/31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

---

Game: (471) Cleveland Browns at (472) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Cleveland Browns +6.0 (-110)

Let's be clear, this is not a go against the Chiefs thing for me. Kansas City is going to be very strong again this season and I sure won't be shocked if they're playing in another Super Bowl. But I really like this Cleveland squad. Fact is, I've got the Browns as the top-rated AFC team on my numbers. The offense is top-level, right there with that of the Chiefs. The Cleveland defense might not be elite but it's well above average. My big question about KC is the defense, which I have been barely average, and I don't like the way their defensive front matches up with a Cleveland offensive line that I have rated as the best unit in the league. The Browns should have a very good opportunity to feature their powerful ground game and that should set up Mayfield for some high percentage chances downfield. That also can keep the KC attack on the sidelines more than they'd prefer to be. It's no secret the Browns have been pointing to this opener from the first day of training camp as it's genuinely a statement challenge for them right out of the gate. I expect Cleveland to be more than up to that challenge and I believe the Browns will win this game. Certainly worth a sprinkle on the money line but for me, the better value is taking nearly a full TD. Browns plus the points for a Top Play.

NFL WEEK ONE BEST BET
Game: (475) Denver Broncos at (476) New York Giants
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Denver Broncos -1.5 (-120)

I'm mostly a matchup handicapper when it comes to football. Strength vs. weakness mismatches are huge to me and I am confident we have one here. The Broncos should have one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL. I see it as a high level unit, and that's even with Von Miller showing some signs of age. If Miller has one more big year left in his body, this unit could be elite. That Denver DL matches up extremely well with a Giants offensive line that could be the worst in the league. I also very much like the fact Teddy Bridgewater won the starting QB job for the Broncos. Bridgewater is not a great QB by any stretch. But he is an excellent game manager and that makes him a very good fit on a team like this one. For what it's worth, Bridgewater also has a great spread record on the road. In any event, I see this being a favorable matchup for the visitors. I also think this line could eventually get to -3, so I'm making my move now and spotting a more playable number with the Broncos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

5% Carolina

*5% at -5' or lower. 4% at -6 or more. (gave the play out at -4)

[dawggy]

JESSE SCHULE

• NFL Wk 1 GRIDIRON GUILLOTINE
  Game: (471) Cleveland Browns at (472) Kansas City Chiefs
  Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-115)
  
  This is an 8* play on Cleveland.
  The Browns open as a big underdog on the road at Kansas City, and I gonna make a move here taking the points. Baker Mayfield versus Patrick Mahomes is an intriguing matchup, one that we've seen plenty of times in the past. Most recently in last year's playoffs, when the Chiefs survived with a 22-17 win at Arrowhead. The most memorable head to head meeting came back in 2016 when Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma won 66-59 in historic shootout versus Mahomes and Texas Tech. This is a lot of points for a Chiefs team that is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall. The history between these teams shows the road team covering in four straight and the underdog covering in six of the last eight meetings.
  GL,
  Jesse Schule

[dawggy]

MAD GEORGE

• NFL 5% BET BET
  Game: (477) Green Bay Packers at (478) New Orleans Saints
  Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5 units
  Play: Green Bay Packers -140
  
  With Aaron Rodgers returning, I think there is great value in backing the Pack here.
  The Saints will be without Mike Thomas and their entire WR crew is a big question mark coming into the season.
  Their defense will be solid but there is a lot of tape to watch on Taysom Hill and I expect all opponents to be better prepared for the dual-threat QB/TE.
  These two teams met last season and both were missing their top wide-outs, Adams and Thomas.
  I expect this line to move to -3 or possibly -3.5
  Take the Packers-2.5 or on the ML!
  Good luck!

[dawggy]

GIANNI THE GREEK


Game: (465) Seattle Seahawks at (466) Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 49.5 (-110)

465) OVER 49 SEA-IND...(4%)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
MIAMI +3
ANALYSIS: This line has grown since Mac Jones was named the starter for the Patriots, which is a little wild when you consider he's making his first career start as the fifth QB drafted in April and doing it against a premium secondary with a head coach who knows this team very well in Brian Flores. I think if you can catch a field goal in this matchup, I like backing the Dolphins, especially with Stephon Gilmore unavailable for the Patriots. One other consideration: the Pats are going with a rookie UDFA kicker who struggled even at the collegiate level, and the Dolphins' big edge at the position could be the difference but isn't really being factored into the line.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NE ATS PICKS
+185 3-1 IN LAST 4 MIA ATS PICKS
10:10 AM

DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY | 09/09 | 8:20 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -8
ANALYSIS: I initially thought this line was where it should be based on my power ratings but was giving the edge to the Bucs with defending champs going 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Week 1 games. I had hoped good Dak Prescott news would move the line down to Bucs -7 and give us an even bigger edge, but it's instead ticked the other way after Zack Martin was ruled out due to a positive COVID-19 test. Consider that a preview of the unpredictable nature of the 2021 NFL season, where sudden, unexpected player absences will wreak havoc on line movement expectations. I'm still laying it with the Bucs and think they win by 10-plus here.

+703 24-15-4 IN LAST 43 TB ATS PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 DAL ATS PICKS
9:56 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Patrick Sports

5* Pot of Gold NFL GOW

Los Angeles Rams -7

Bears vs. Rams 8:20 pm est.

Chicago was a surprising playoff team last year after finishing (8-8), winning six games by seven or fewer points. Historically, that’s not a good indicator of future improvement. The Bears lack juice. There are many different factors that make it so, but the bottom line is indisputable, the offense. What makes it success so difficult for the Rams, is that the they are in one of the toughest division in football, which means there was a very real possibility they could be competitive and one of the best offensive teams in football and still risk failing to make the playoffs once again. This team still has a great deal of star power — new QB Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. This is a huge year for the Rams. The biggest of McVay's career. The Rams’ defensive unit allowed the fewest points in the league at (18.5) points per game. L.A. is undefeated in season openers during the Sean McVay era and the Bears annually struggle on the trips out west.

(5*) Pot of Gold Play. #480. Take Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Hochman

5* NFL Sunday Best Bet

Detroit Lions +7.5