Wednesdat 8/18/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 06:55 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Wednesday, August 18, 2021

August 18, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
Pass/No Play

Forecast: The Wednesday opener is a race for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Flat Out Beautiful; 6-Free Enterprise

Forecast: At first glance it would appear that Free Enterprise is another Klaravich Stables class dropper being culled to make room for new blood. In his case, though, it may be a simple case of a veteran gelding, with just 11 career starts and with issues throughout his career, merely being placed where he can be most productive. A winner of a restricted $50,000 claiming sprint last month in the mud over this track and distance, the son of Curlin shows up today in a $32,000 seller, and on pure numbers, this is where he belongs. His career record at Saratoga (5-1-2-1) is too good to ignore as well, so we’ll include him in rolling exotic play along with the intriguing Flat Out Beautiful, who shows several powerful angles in his chart, most notably being a first-off-the-claim play for R. Atras, who is simply remarkable with this maneuver (34% with a massive ROI). Additionally, the son of Flat Out is dropping from $40,000, shortening to what might be his best trip (seven furlongs), is strong in the speed figure department, attracts the barn’s “go-to” rider R. Santana, and when properly spotted always has been genuine and consistent (first or second in 12 of 27 career starts). It will be a major letdown if the veteran gelding doesn’t fire a huge shot.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Morning Matcha; 7-Call Sign Charlie; 9-Monshun

Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint is restricted to juvenile fillies that went through the auction ring for $45,000 or less in their most recent sale. Morning Matcha, a fast-finishing third (and then galloping out far in front) in a similarly restricted event last month, gets an extra half furlong to work with today and should continue to improve in her third career outing, though her total lack of early speed and her awkwardness with lead changes makes backing her a bit problematic. She’s clearly the best of those that have raced, but there are a couple of newcomers that must be considered as well. Monshun, drawn comfortably outside, is a first timer by Unified that has trained reasonably well for R. Handal and lands J. Rosario, while the J. Abreu-trained Call Sign Charlie shows a noteworthy gate work 12 days ago (4f, :48bg, third fastest of 43) for a barn that has superior stats with first-time starters (27% with terrific ROI). All three should be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Dark Storm; 3-Blewitt

Forecast: Blewitt has seen better days but in his second start off a layoff combined with a considerable class drop to the $25,000 level the veteran son of Uncle Mo will beat this field if he has one good one left. The T. Pletcher-trained 7-year-old does his best work on the front end and in this nine furlong main track event he should be able to secure his preferred role as the controlling speed. It’s just a matter of how much he has left in the tank. Dark Storm is another with recent form that is uninspiring, though his last pair of starts over wet tracks at Belmont Park probably can be excused. A prior winner over the Saratoga main track, the G. Weaver-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” E. Cancel and projects to be comfortably placed in a stalking position and then have his chance to go after the leader when called upon. In a race that probably should be handled with care, we’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Shine; 3-Diamond Hands; 4-Gun Boat; 8-Vagaries

Forecast: There are several high-quality prospects debuting in this maiden juvenile turf router and we’ll be surprised the race doesn’t produce a stakes performer or two down the road. Diamond Hands brought $425,000 in the OBS April sale and has breezed like a good type for the always-powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team, so she’s certain to get plenty of play for a stable that has excellent stats with the first-time-starter angle (23% with powerful ROI). The daughter of Frosted and the multi-stakes winning mare Love Cove has shown to be a sensible type with a lengthy stride and should have no trouble two-turning first time out. Look for her to be taken back and then produced late. Shine brought $240,00 as a yearling, a goodly sum for a daughter of Jimmy Creed with nothing in the first dam, and she’s done everything asked in the a.m. for W. Mott, who starts her off going long on grass even though her pedigree suggests she should be most comfortable sprinting on dirt. It wouldn’t surprise us in the least if she finds herself on the front end from her rail post and based on what we’ve seen of her in the morning she could easily take this field a very long way if not pressured early. Gun Boat has a world of natural talent but can get a bit keen in the a.m. and will need to drop her head and relax to maximize her talents. Assuming she breaks cleanly, the daughter of War Front is projected to be prominent throughout and is a “must use” even though Shug is average at best with debut runners. Vagaries has looked fairly promising in her grass breezes, including one in company on Aug. 1 when stride-for-stride (though second best) with stable mate McKulick, a subsequent first-out winner earlier this month. Typical of the young runners from the C. Brown barn, the Irish-bred filly has been given a strong foundation of easy drills to have her plenty fit and ready. We suspect she’s another that will be doing her best work from off the pace. Of the four listed above, Diamond Hands may be the most likely to run to her abilities so we’ll put her slightly on top but with so much untapped talent in the field it’s difficult to know for sure which ones will perform best when the lights go on.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Single: 1-Sand and Sea

Forecast: Sand and Sea, a good runner-up over this course and distance last month in a similar affair for maiden state-bred fillies and mares, seems likely to receive the bulk of the play after apparently finding her preferred surface following a couple of disappointing main track outings to begin her career. In that race on July 23 the improving daughter of Liam’s Map made a right had turn from her outside draw to cost herself better early position, but then steadily moved within range, had her best bid into the lane before proving no match for the talented Tuscan Queen while clearly best of the others. She shows a bullet blowout just four days ago at Belmont Park (3f, :36b, fastest of 43) so we’re expecting her to take control early from her favorable inside draw and keep on going as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Cadeaux de Paix; 5-Chloe Rose

Forecast: Cadeaux de Paix was more than five lengths clear of the rest when second in a similar starter’s allowance sprint here last month and not much more will be needed to beat this modest group of fillies and mares. She’s not really that quick early and doesn’t really blast home either, but the veteran Majestic Warrior mare should find herself within range throughout and then have the chance to grind out a win. I. Ortiz, Jr. got to know her last time out and stays aboard. Chloe Rose has been quite popular at the claim box lately, changing hands in three of her last four starts, most recently for $32,000 by J. Toscano, who’s had a slow year but always does extremely well with the first-off-the-claim angle. She’s back on short rest (10 days) but we’re expecting the daughter of Twirling Candy to settle in the second flight under J. Rosario and then have dead aim on the suspect speed-types at the head of the lane.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Taos; 7-Attentive; 11-Troubling Moon

Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for $40,000 older claimers that requires heavy usage in rolling exotic play. Attentive, first off the claim for R. Diodoro (26% with a superior ROI), makes his first start since winning at this level in mid-June at Belmont Park when trained by M. Maker. The two month layoff is only mildly concerning for a barn that has such success with these types of runners, so if the son of Power Broker fires his best shot he’ll be right there. Taos has been away since May of 2020 but returns for D. Gargan, whose stats with layoff runners in a relatively small sample is off the charts. We’re expecting the son of Tapit to be quite dangerous with his front-running style from his favorable inside draw. The works indicate the gelding has retains all of his speed, and it’s hardly inconceivable that he’ll deliver a career top performance for his new conditioner, who employs his “go to” rider, L. Saez. Troubling Moon had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post but he’s a deep closer and likely would have dropped back early, anyway. Freshened since May and returning in a realistic spot for trainer G. Arnold (22% with a strong ROI with layoffs), the son of Into Mischief shows a bullet Saratoga training track drill (4f, :48.4b, fastest of nine) last week to have him on his toes, and also has back speed figures that put him the picture. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, but you should spread as deeply as you can afford to.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Derrynane; 8-Fulinate; 9-Chi Town Lady

Forecast: Several of these juvenile fillies produced impressive debut victories sprinting on grass, so the winner of this year’s renewal of the Bolton Landing S. probably will be the one that makes the most progress between her first and second starts. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Derrynane was thoroughly professional when beating maidens over this course and distance last month, settling behind the leaders, waiting her turn, and then quickening when room to developed at the furlong pole to draw clear before being taken in hand in the closing stages. The daughter of Quality Road shows a bullet training track breeze in the interim (Aug. 8, 3f, :36.3b, fastest of eight) to remain on edge, so with good racing luck today we’re expecting the C. Clement-trained filly to be along in time. Fulminate may be the quickest in the group and the M. Casse-trained daughter of Get Stormy is a “must use” after a sharp Gulfstream Park score last month with a Beyer speed figure 15 points stronger that what our top pick was assigned in her win. A private purchase by sharp connections while remaining in Casse’s care, she didn’t really break well in her debut and probably is even quicker than the running line might indicate. Chi Town Lady looked good winning out of the chute at Keeneland in mid-April, pressing the pace and then opening up when called upon as the 1/5 favorite. She returns for W. Ward with an easy, steady series of workouts, and as granddaughter of More Than Ready she has every right to handle grass.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: X
Single: 1-Clever Humor

Forecast: Clever Humor ran well at this level in just his second career start when second while more than three lengths clear of the rest, pressing the pace throughout and staying on well through the lane. He makes his first start for high-percentage trainer B. Russell, who doesn’t dabble in the claiming game too often but does well with pretty much everything in her barn. L. Saez stays aboard the son of Distorted Humor, who should handle this modest field with a clean break from his inside draw as a logical, no value, rolling exotic single.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 06:57 AM

AI Picks: Saratoga Pick Six | Wednesday, August 18, 2021

August 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Wednesday’s week six kickoff card at Saratoga features a $145,197 carryover in the traditional, $1 pick six pool. The sequence will be Races 5-10 and include the Bolton Landing Stakes for 2-year-old filly turf sprinters.

To help you tackle the Saratoga races, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the fields. Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

We’ve included the track’s morning line odds with each entrant.

NOTE: All selections are made for the original surface scheduled; in the event of turf races moving to dirt, be sure to use the 1/ST BET app for updated, automated selections based on the new surface.

Saratoga // Race 5 // 3:21 PM ET // maiden special weight // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#7 Lemieux (6-5) // 28%W
#1A Ready for Charm (5-1) // 16%W
#3 Diamond Hands (3-1) // 11%W
#6 Highly Devauxted (8-1) // 8%W

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Saratoga // Race 6 // 3:55 PM ET // maiden special weight // 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#1 Sand and Sea (7-2) // 25%W
#7 Crowding Out (8-5) // 14%W
#6 Gailhorsewind (3-1) // 14%W
#2 Venus Oyzo (30-1) // 11%W

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Saratoga // Race 7 // 4:29 PM ET // starter allowance // 6-1/2 furlongs

#3 Cadeaux de Paix (4-1) // 28%W
#2 Raffinity (8-1) // 14%W
#5 Chloe Rose (6-1) // 13%W
#4 April Antics (20-1) // 13%W

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Saratoga // Race 8 // 5:05 PM ET // claiming // 1 mile (turf)

#6 Parlor (3-1) // 19%W
#10 Hieroglyphics (6-1) // 18%W
#5 Seismic Wave (7-2) // 13%W
#2 Musical America (5-2) // 13%W

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Saratoga // Race 9 // 5:39 PM ET // $120,000 Bolton Landing Stakes // 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#8 Fulminate (7-2) // 28%W
#11 Averly Jane (9-5) // 15%W
#3 Derrynane (5-1) // 14%W
#2 Charlee O (8-1) // 10%W

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Saratoga // Race 10 // 6:13 PM ET // maiden claiming // 6 furlongs

#1 Clear Humor (1-1) // 28%W
#6 Damilano (3-1) // 15%W
#4 Capt’ Remington (15-1) // 13%W
#2 D’vinicris (10-1) // 11%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 06:58 AM

Pimlico Stats: Marquez Rolls into Closing Week

August 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

Closing week of the extended 2021 Pimlico Meet is upon us with the finale set for Sunday … A quartet of Maryland-bred stakes are on the Maryland Pride Saturday docket with the All Brandy, Find, Miss Disco and Star de Naskra offering $75,000-each springboards toward the Maryland Million on Oct. 23 at Laurel Park … All fans in attendance Saturday at Pimlico will take home a free piece of Preakness memorabilia … The Rainbow 6 jackpot bet was hit by a single ticket Sunday (for $10,980), so the carryover starts anew for closing week … Jameela Stakes upsetter Ellanation aims for her second win of the meet in Friday’s turf sprint allowance feature … The MJC autumn season at Laurel begins Sept. 9 after the annual state fair meet at Timonium.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 32% wins. Win % was the top factor for the second straight week.

Win %
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed
In The Money %

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Charlie Marquez had it going with a 12: 5-2-1 record. Those scores include $13, $15 and $23 returns and a hefty $2.74 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Jockey Angel Cruz posted an 11: 3-3-0 mark, riding 5 favorites along the way (5: 2-2-0). All 3 wins were at 5-2 or less odds.

-- Jockey Johan Rosado won with both mounts, including a $59 bomber. He had been just 1-21 dating back to late June at the meet prior.

-- Trainer Claudio Gonzalez turned it back on with a 10: 4-1-1 week, going 5: 3-1-0 with favorites. The 3 winners at 3-1 or less barely scratched out a profitable $1.06 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Trainer Cal Lynch was 4: 2-0-0 with $9 and $15 scores on the turf. He was 2-for-3 with jockey Charlie Marquez in the saddle.

-- Favorites are 34-51 (67%) in the exacta over the past 2 weeks, compared to 61% prior at the meet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 06:59 AM

Gulfstream Stats: Rios Rocks the Toteboard

August 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

A $172,132 Rainbow 6 jackpot pool carryover ($300,000-guaranteed pool) welcomes horseplayers back Friday … Feature races this weekend are Saturday’s Sharp Susan Stakes and Proud Man Stakes, both 2-year-old turf events … The Florida Sire Stakes second round of juvenile stakes are set for next Saturday, Aug. 28 … Well Defined continued his winning ways Aug. 14 with a victory in the Benny the Bull Stakes, out-sprinting 2020 Florida Derby runner-up Shivaree in the process … GP-based multiple stakes winner Noble Drama will be pointed to the Aug. 27 Charles Town Classic next Friday in West Virginia for David Fawkes … Renovations continue on schedule the new third racing surface, Tapeta, at Gulfstream and it’s scheduled to be unveiled in September.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each showing a 20% win rate or higher. Avg. Speed fell from the top-performing factor for first time in five weeks.

In The Money %
Jockey Meet
Trainer Meet

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Jesus Rios was 11: 3-0-2 and a longshot sharp-shooter. He guided winners paying $29, $45 and $107. His average mount was nearly 22-1 odds.

-- Jockey Jose Morelos was on point at 7: 3-1-1 for a $1.97 ROI on every $1 bet. He also had a 23-1 shot bottom a trifecta. All 7 mounts were for different trainers.

-- Jockey Wilmer Garcia went 6: 2-0-0, popping $12 and $43 scores. His average mount was 18-1 on the week.

-- Trainer Ron Spatz won with all 3 starters he sent out, returning $8, $10 and $12 mutuels. Miguel Vasquez rode a pair of those. The barn had been just 1-13 since the start of July prior to the hot streak.

-- Trainer Gilberto Zerpa had a big week at 6: 3-1-0 with well-backed returns at $5, $6 and $8. His runners are 11-19 in the exacta (5 wins) since July 30.

-- Favorites underperformed at 30% on the week.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 07:00 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#2 Sweet Dutchess	Blinkers go on for the second try, and she moved okay in the debut run before fading a bit late. She should be right up on the splits today and can be tough if she moves forward with the last one under her belt.
#5 Heavenly Praise	Get a look at her on the track, but she will go first out for a capable team while meeting a group that doesn't appear to be the deepest.
#8 Mirth 'n Merriment	She has run a few decent races while proving no threat in Florida, but she might like the local footing, and the competition here might be just a touch softer.
Race Summary	Sweet Dutchess has some upside in this second start, and she might stick around better here with any reasonable second start improvement.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#3 Boomin Goose	He figures to get a good trip in a spot with several forward players, and any kind of honest pace might be enough to get him over the top late after trying to finish into soft splits recently.
#5 Wapiti Way	He showed some good tactical pace in that last one when stretching out, and he figures to find another good trip while tracking the pace. I'd want him on the tickets.
#7 Cooper's Crescent	He's capable of races that would win this, but his best game comes on the front end, and he may have to hustle to get there today. Vulnerable late.
Race Summary	Boomin Goose meets a handful of pace and pressing types in this one, and he may still be rounding into form as he makes his third start off a break and just his fourth of the year.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#9 Out of Pocket	Think she might be capable of something just a bit better than she showed in the local debut, and she looks like one of the main dangers from off the splits.
#4 Keypit	Tactical pace should land another great trip after just giving way in the final yards last time out. She's one of the ones here, but she might be a bit overbet as she makes her 17th start.
#8 Littlemisstatertot	She'll go second off the bench in this spot and might be able to find a spying spot while trying two turns for the first time. The pedigree is a little sprint-leaving, but the trip may be advantageous enough for her to land a piece of this.
Race Summary	Out of Pocket looks like the right one in the finale, and anything like the 6/1 ML price would make her very playable. Hoping a couple of forward players produce an honest set of splits.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 07:01 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2

#7 CHILLIN BYTHE POOL	Live longshot in follow-up to very troubled debut.
#1 MADEIRA HANOVER	Showed pulse in sire stakes, draws rail, one to beat.
#3 SHADOWS DANCERS	Ran away from 'Chillin' as the odds-on favorite at Pocono Downs.
Race Summary	Chillin Bythe Pool showed enough in her debut to warrant serious attention at 20-1 on the morning line. She was off the gate at the start, bothered by an erratic rival as the pace slowed in the second quarter, bothered again by a breaker near the final turn and recovered some behind a runaway winner. Play a 7/1,3/ALL trifecta.

Yonkers - Race #4

#7 SVF CASH DEPOSIT	Solid numbers, gets needed class relief, good value play.
#8 BAZILLIONAIRE	Would like more if not for post 8 and 0-24 mark this year.
#4 MANWILLING	Seized the moment at Tioga after the favorite broke stride early.
Race Summary	SVF Cash Deposit posted competitive speed figures against better rivals in his last two starts, hit the board in 10 of 24 starts this year and figures tough on the class drop at a tempting morning-line price. Play 7-4 and 7-8 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #4

#2 MY PANTHER	Holds tactical advantage, can make amends as beaten fave.
#4 JACK WACKER	Rallied from far back into photo-finish view, can be forwardly placed.
#3 MOTORING MICHAEL	Tries to upstage a series of in-the-money rallies.
Race Summary	My Panther burned money with a nasty break at the start, but returns in an ideal, pace-controlling spot from an inner post. He blew clear leads in the two starts prior but look for him to go non-stop in his 10th start. Play 2-3 and 2-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 07:02 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #2

#1 Easy Shot	Turns back from running longer distances and was second two back at Belmont; makes his first off the claim for Levine and should be able to finish full of run.
#2 Cantrell Hill	Closed well for second last out and gets a switch to Saez; makes first off the claim for Gargan.
#5 Create Again	Ran a good second in his first one here after moving from Gulfstream; makes his second off the claim for Walder.
Race Summary	Easy Shot can benefit from following a good sprint pace from the inside and should be able to regain some late pop.

Saratoga - Race #7

#6 Air Cavalry	Has the speed to be in the early hunt and has been solid in her last two, with a nose loss here and an easy win at Belmont; leading rider Saez can keep her battling to the end.
#3 Cadeau de Paix	Was second in a fast race and keep I. Ortiz aboard; makes second Saratoga start and can be in the mix earlier.
#1 Bayshore Foxes	Has the speed to engage early on and was second in her initial Saratoga attempt; chance for improvement as she turns back in distance.
Race Summary	Air Cavalry has been effective since coming from Florida and can get in a good early run against these; came up an inch short going 5.5 furlongs and can benefit from the extra furlong.

Saratoga - Race #9

#1 Cartel Queen	Has work twice on the turf since running fifth in the G3 Schuylerville; bred to prefer the turf and has the speed to be an important player at once.
#8 Fulminate	Dominant in her only start, which was over the turf at Gulfstream; capable of getting to the lead and could be tough to catch.
#9 Chi Town Lady	Was a clear winner at Keeneland in her only start and has a good turf work to her credit; Ward juveniles always worth a look, especially short on turf.
Race Summary	Cartel Queen has shown some pick-me-up on the turf in the mornings and drops out of the Schuylerville on dirt; Amoss charge can be a big player under the capable hands of Gaffalione.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 12:13 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arlington

Arlington - Race 7	$2 Win / Place / Show / $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.20 Jackpot High-5 (15% takeout)
Claiming $12,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 5:27P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 18 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY OR ALLOWANCES). LANE 5. 15 FT. OUT. (IF THE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTHS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CONVICT PIKE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest T rackMaster Power Rating. POPPY'S BOYS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SMILING SILAS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fig ure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). DRAMATIC KITTEN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
9	CONVICT PIKE	7/2	9/2
1	POPPY'S BOYS	4/1	9/2
7	SMILING SILAS	15/1	9/1
3	DRAMATIC KITTEN	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DEWY'S HIT	4	6/1	Front-runner	85	82	77.2	75.0	62.0
13	BUMPTYBUMPBUMP	13	12/1	Front-runner	83	74	71.1	68.3	47.8
12	COSMIC TREASURE	12	6/1	Front-runner	87	81	64.0	74.0	64.0
3	DRAMATIC KITTEN	3	10/1	Stalker	83	87	92.0	77.0	61.5
7	SMILING SILAS	7	15/1	Stalker	84	84	68.4	79.8	68.8
11	TALIS PARK GRAD	11	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	77	70.8	75.3	58.3
9	CONVICT PIKE	9	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	91	89	64.6	86.2	79.2
1	POPPY'S BOYS	1	4/1	Trailer	91	87	74.6	84.6	79.1
6	URBANITE	6	10/1	Trailer	86	76	70.6	73.0	62.0
5	MAJESTIC DAY	5	12/1	Trailer	82	78	40.0	73.4	52.9
10	OVERPRAISE	10	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	81	49.8	75.2	63.2
2	UPHAM	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	79	38.7	72.4	53.4
8	DICK THE BRUISER	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	75	28.4	68.3	51.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 12:16 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs

Ajax Downs - Race 6	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Speed Index • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 3:45P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH A SPEED INDEX THAT HAS NEVER BEEN BETTER THAN 90. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * I THINK ICON: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HANOVER HILL CHALSEE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. YOURNOTTHEBOSSOFME: Jockey/Trainer comb ination return on investment is at least +20. SR BLUE HAWK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MY SPECIAL CORONA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gat e fast.
1	I THINK ICON	7/2	6/1
3	HANOVER HILL CHALSEE	3/1	6/1
2	YOURNOTTHEBOSSOFME	5/1	7/1
4	SR BLUE HAWK	5/2	7/1
5	MY SPECIAL CORONA	15/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	I THINK ICON	1	7/2	Average	73	73	4.0	0.0	0.0
3	HANOVER HILL CHALSEE	3	3/1	Average	72	74	5.7	0.0	0.0
4	SR BLUE HAWK	4	5/2	Average	73	72	5.1	0.0	0.0
5	MY SPECIAL CORONA	5	15/1	Fast	70	64	3.2	0.0	0.0
6	GET ON THE BUS GUS	6	10/1	Slow	66	67	8.3	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: YOURNOTTHEBOSSOFME (5/1) [Jockey: Spataro Cory - Trainer: Tavares Joe].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 12:17 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13800 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SILLY NOTION 5/1
# 3 IM COMING OVER 8/1
# 7 OUR NATIVE ANGEL 3/1

I've got to go with SILLY NOTION. Could provide positive gains based on competitive recent Speed Figures with an average of 56. Has to be given a chance - I like the numbers from the last race. She has very good class ratings, averaging 72, and has to be considered for this event. IM COMING OVER - Her 53 average has this filly with among the most respectable speed figures in this competition. Formidable average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a solid contender. OUR NATIVE ANGEL - Trainer has sharp win rate (23 percent) at this distance and surface. Sterling ought to be able to get this filly to break out early in this contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 12:17 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #2 - Post: 6:17pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#3 OUTLAW X. (ML=10/1)
#2 WICKED CITI (ML=5/2)
#5 CLEVER RACER (ML=12/1)

OUTLAW X. - Atop this thoroughbred on Jul 15th and Dominguez is back again in the irons in this race. Ramirez drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to think this thoroughbred will be tough to beat at this level. Ranked number one in earnings per start. Another indication that this horse has the class to take this race. WICKED CITI - I think this colt is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. A horse coming back this promptly after a strong race is a good sign. CLEVER RACER - Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a strong outing on Aug 4th. Don't often see a profitable ROI like +54. This jockey/conditioner duet has done well together over the last year. This gelding seems to like to win at a nice price.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SOUTHPINE GIFT (ML=9/5), #6 SUCH (ML=3/1), #4 QUALITY PRODUCTION (ML=5/1),

SOUTHPINE GIFT - There's early speed, speed, and more speed in this event. Doesn't look too good for this animal. SUCH - This gelding hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance contests. Not easy to wager on him in this race. This horse likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Forget the top spot. QUALITY PRODUCTION - Hard to support any horse with declining Equibase speed figures of 72/68/57.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WICKED CITI - This colt's superior last speed number of 73, against these horses, makes him the overwhelming choice.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 OUTLAW X. Is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 12:18 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 RELENTLESS HERO 2/1
# 2 FURRST HANKA 7/2
# 4 AJK PAYYOURTAX 5/2

I've got to go with RELENTLESS HERO. She should definitely be considered given the decent speed figures. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the midpoint of the contest. Is a solid contender - given the 69 speed figure from her most recent race. FURRST HANKA - Should be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. Must be given a chance - I like the figs from the last affair. AJK PAYYOURTAX - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the midpoint of the affair. The speed rating of 70 from his last affair looks very strong in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 12:19 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Colonial Downs - Race #2 - Post: 2:13pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#3 ZONIC (ML=8/1)

ZONIC - The rider/handler tandem of Acosta and Azpurua has a strong return on investment together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SHACKLED (ML=2/1), #5 CIRCLE AWAY (ML=3/1), #2 BIG DAVE (ML=7/2),

SHACKLED - Unlikely for this entrant to do much running with no recent success in a short distance race. CIRCLE AWAY - This gelding hasn't had any recent good results in short distance events. No picnic to bet on him in this race. 3/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when looking at the most recent outings. BIG DAVE - Not likely for this thoroughbred to make an impact with no recent good showings in a sprint affair.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ZONIC - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top horse in earnings per start. This horse looks good to me so I'm making a wager on him.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 ZONIC to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-18-2021, 12:20 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

08/18/21, SAR, Race 8, 5.05 ET
08/18/21,SAR,8,1M [Inner Turf] 1:32:00 CLAIMING. Purse $66,000. INNER TURF (UP TO $11,484 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or Over In 2021 Allowed 2 lbs. Such A Race In 2021 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (Maiden And ClaimingRaces For $32,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Hieroglyphics	6/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Schettino Domenick L.	J	95	32.63	1.47/$1
099.4983	1	Taos	9/2	Saez L	Gargan Danny	SWL	95	32.63	1.47/$1
098.9007	6	Parlor	3/1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.	F	95	32.63	1.47/$1
098.8777	7	Attentive	6/1	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino	TC	95	32.63	1.47/$1
098.4394	8	Morocco	12/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		95	32.63	1.47/$1
097.6817	9	Soulmate	20/1	Samuel J L	Pregman. Jr. John S.		95	32.63	1.47/$1
097.5248	5	Seismic Wave	7/2	Rosario J	Brown Chad C.		95	32.63	1.47/$1
096.8685	3	Castagno	15/1	Cancel E	Kantarmaci Mertkan		95	32.63	1.47/$1
096.0903	4	Artemus Bridge	15/1	Velazquez J R	Klesaris Steve		95	32.63	1.47/$1
095.6128	2	Musical America	5/2	Rosario J	Baker Charlton	E	95	32.63	1.47/$1
095.3468	11	Troubling Moon	10/1	Lezcano J	Arnold. II George R.		95	32.63	1.47/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 17.07, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.5017
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Horse Not Age 3
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Taos	9/2	Saez L	Gargan Danny	L	83	26.51	1.57/$1
099.4244	2	Musical America	5/2	Rosario J	Baker Charlton	S	83	26.51	1.57/$1
098.1215	6	Parlor	3/1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.	W	83	26.51	1.57/$1
097.9772	10	Hieroglyphics	6/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Schettino Domenick L.	JE	83	26.51	1.57/$1
096.1906	7	Attentive	6/1	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino	TFC	83	26.51	1.57/$1
095.8988	3	Castagno	15/1	Cancel E	Kantarmaci Mertkan		83	26.51	1.57/$1
095.6041	8	Morocco	12/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		83	26.51	1.57/$1
095.1799	5	Seismic Wave	7/2	Rosario J	Brown Chad C.		83	26.51	1.57/$1
094.9115	11	Troubling Moon	10/1	Lezcano J	Arnold. II George R.		83	26.51	1.57/$1
094.6966	9	Soulmate	20/1	Samuel J L	Pregman. Jr. John S.		83	26.51	1.57/$1
092.7249	4	Artemus Bridge	15/1	Velazquez J R	Klesaris Steve		83	26.51	1.57/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 39.24, ROI 1.10/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.5756
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Trainer Dirt YTD_Curr*1.5 (M)
*Scratches may change this condition

Wednesdat 8/18/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesdat 8/18/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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